Post should be up a little later tonight, map is included, just wanted to start up this thread for WX specific to this forecast period so it is available whenever the post goes up.

--Whenever it is posted, whoever reads it first please copy the link to the article so that it is easily available through this thread. Thnx!

I'll start with an interesting tidbit. Temperatures will drop nearly linearly between now and Saturday 7am for most locations in the VA/WV mountains. For instance, WTG goes from 53F at the mountaintop right now all the way down to 17F Saturday morning in a near steady decline. Snowshoe is similar, 45F down to 11F, with a only a minor warmup blip (25F) Friday afternoon.

Right now, I am seeing 4-8" of snow for Snowshoe, preceded by a lot of rain. The changeover happens around 1pm Thursday. It's looking like Wintergreen will only get an inch or so of snow, starting at 1am Friday, preceded by 2-3" of rain (yikes). I would not be surprised if this changes though, as the system is quite complicated and no forecast is going to be right. Let's hope it changes for the better!

Not seeing that snow for shoe, I am actually seeing more for Wgreen than shoe, not anything at all on the front end (will be way way too warm in the upper levels for snow, possibly freezing rain in the valleys). Depends on track of backend precip but it seems that there will be sharp cut off very close to the VA/WVA line in terms of 2-4 vs 1-2 inches of backend for higher elevations. Around 3 may be possible for shoe but unless that backend shifts more westerly I just dont see it

That would be better for me -- 2 hours less to drive! I was hoping to ski at WTG Friday if everything works out.

Nice, ya WTG may be better positioned for once... should be interesting

You beat me to the Punch L-Ski...Snowshoe has the potential to surprise but I'm sticking to my original F-cast yesterday on the 1st weather thread which is that by the time the air gets cold enough in the Alpps the bulk of the moisture will have gone Bye-Bye..we could pick up a few inches on some backside/upslope by sat morn.
Catskills get mish mash precip & Northern NH & Northern Vermont (Jay Peak) will get the mother load which might only be a foot...I saw it Snow 13 inches 10 days ago at my camp up near Canaan at 2900'....so I'm not too excited...Good weekend of Skiing coming up...Bottom Line!

Don't forget to include a forecast for Wisp, where DCSkiers will meet up for Wisp's b-day celebration Sunday.

Woody

[sideline]

Woody, have you skied the new Dynastars yet?

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It's in there, should be ok because they have a decent base already built. Not much new snow though.

Does anyone have an idea what Hardy Co may get in all of this? I've looked at some of the maps and if the storm heads a hair east, we could get 5-10" of snow. But if it hangs more west and over the spine of the appalachians, it could mean as little as a dusting upto 2" maybe.

Any of you forecasters predicting for Wardensville (990' elv) or Moorefield (~650' elv)?

Forecast is up. I can't post the link because I am on my itouch but if someone else could that would be great. Bawlker, post a google map link to your area. Don't think this storm is at all going to go east. Sry

Not sure who's gonna get snow around here but my mom called me this morning to tell me it was snowing heavily in Baton Rouge, LA. Meanwhile, it's 50 degrees and raining here. That just ain't right.

Here's Kyle's latest forecast:

http://dcski.com/articles/view_article.php?article_id=1158&mode=headlines

Here's my location:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=26810&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=31.509065,56.601563&ie=UTF8&ll=38.959943,-78.781586&spn=1.930658,3.537598&z=8

Ok I really need to post an update on this.

For those of you who have not heard, this storm is going to go down in the record books. Highways all over the gulf coast near New Orleans are closed as a result of extremely heave snow. Places in miss and LA could end up with over 10 inches of snow by this evening. Meanwhile it is raining all along the east coast and most easterners have yet to see any real snow this season.

This is not at all a meteorological based prediction but I think this storm still has something in store for us before it is all over tomorrow night. The backend moisture associated with this storm is tremendous (check out the national radar (this is snow over New O!). Should be really interesting tomorrow, definitely a whole lot of rain for almost everyone but the end of the storm has the potential to be a lot of fun (heavy snow for WVA??, DC???, PA???)... just a random thought, just keep an eye out for a surprise.

Is this based on the latest runs of the models or just what's happening down south?

By the way, latest report from down on the bayou is 3" of snow on the ground already!

I wish all that snow would hurry up and get up here. The snowpack in isn't looking so good. Dave is reporting just a trace left.....

http://canaanweather.4t.com/

There is a lot of rain coming down. Cats, dogs, arks, you name it. I don't think we will get enough snow (if it even shows up) to make up for the washout. Still hoping though.

Anybody heading up I-88 from Binghamton,NY to Albany?..you want to live a living nightmare?..try it!....Just warned my truck dispatch about some treacherous routes up north...DAMB..forgot about louisiana!...Heard the locals down there are throwing dead Crawfish at an efigy of (Censered)..

Edited & censered by Fishnski

Snow will not make up for the wash out, and totals in the valley and shoe may be minimal. 7 springs should pick up around 3-8... jackpot for the "local" resorts will probably be blue knob.. they may get 10+.

We just got upgraded to a warning here in central PA with .2-.3 of ice forecasted and 3-5+ of snow. Just show how hard timing/precip type is to pin down even with all the advanced computing we have.

need to add: Still is potential for 3-6+ of backend snow for all WVA and PA resorts tomorrow morning.

Snow in LA/TX wut teh [sensored] is up with this??? It changed from rain to freezing rain/sleet to puking snow here on the east bank of the ohio within last 30 minutes. Only way to call this strom is how you seize it.

Must be nice. I am less than 75 miles south of you and it is puking nothing but rain here. I HATE RAIN!!!!

I've been checking mountain-top conditions at Silver Creek and Wintergreen, and temps have actually been rising. Still in the 40s, and humidity near 100%. WTG reporting in with 1" of rain so far, 1.2" for SC. I'm definitely worried about the snow bases at this point. Any one of temperature, rain, high humidity is bad, and we are getting all three at once. I don't think there will be a fast enough turn around in temperatures to make back end snows result in anything more than slush on the ground. What it does from there is a ???? Groomers can actually do more harm than good by working a wet surface and base, but if it drops below freezing long enough to set up that would be bad news. This storm is giving me an ulcer. I just want to ski dammit!

skier219 - don't lose hope! miracles can still happen, right?

You can get a temp for Silvercreek?...Can you share that info?

This is what's frustrating to a Mid-Atlantic skier. We are teased with great weather for skiing and then we get an air mass from the Gulf. That's what kills us. If we had 10,000 foot high mountains they would be absolutely buried in snow. Sort of like the Sierras. The advancing cold air is moving sooooooo slowly. And the forcast looks like we're going back into a zonal type pattern where the jet stream moves across the country in a sin wave fashion alternating us with warm and cold air. Hopefully this pattern won't hang on too long. It better not f#%k up my Christmas holiday skiing.!

This is the what he's talking about (I think)

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/silvercreek/

Thanks a mill David!..34 up at Silvercreek which is the same as Canaan..Which has dropped 3 degrees in 45 min.

That was the Davis Weather Link & when I put it into my Favs I renamed it "Davids Weatherlink"...Thank you for your support!

Those close to freezing temps don't necesarily mean Snow is on the Doorstep..Could mean the Freezy stuff will begin falling for awhile before the turnover to all snow...
I posted 2 days ago that the turnover wouldn't be complete till 1 am. Should I root for my F-cast which I have been Batting a 100% on the storm so far or should I root on the Snow?

I am still seeing indications of 6-8" possible for Snowshoe by tomorrow mid-day, the question is will it matter much. I was hoping to ski tomorrow, but I think there is too much uncertainty about the slope conditions for tomorrow. Be good to hear an observation from someone who is up there.

WTG's down to 38F now, still a ways to go.

It's niar/sleet mix in wheeling now. Humidity in davis is still near 100%, temp drops to 16f by this time tomaro, POW. Just bein hopeful but still it looks like a good couple of days coming up.

It looks like the NWS is calling for snowshowers to linger around Snowshoe through Saturday morning... maybe Saturday won't be too bad afterall.

Anyone have a prediction for conditions up there on Saturday... will it be really icy or will they be able to groom things up ok?

It's all going to depend on how much natural snow falls tomorrow, and how bad the slopes got beat up today. If they get at least 6-8" and groom it, Saturday ought to be good on the basin side. I'd be less optimistic about Cupp!

dont see 6-8... i would expect it all has to do on how well thet groom.. icy later in the day

6" by sat morn maybe..Gotta turn to Snow 1st..Got my alarm set to see it turn at 1am...Yeh Right..Good Night Y'all!

There's a big dry slot forming over the VA-WV area now, which means the backside action ought to kick in shortly (Kentucky is getting it right now).

I should note that I wasn't saying Snowshoe would get 6-8", just that I would want that amount of snow to fall and be groomed in to make for good conditions on Saturday. Right now Wx is saying 5" for Snowshoe from 1am Friday through 1am Saturday, with most of it happening after 1pm Friday. If that's the case, I am guessing Saturday will be a good day to have sharp edges.

I see no snow, not even 0.5", in the cards for Wintergreen.

I'll check status tomorrow AM and decide if it's worth the drive to go skiing, but I'm not expecting to. In fact, I didn't pack my gear or make lunch -- just to flaunt a lack of preparedness in the face of the storm.

35*F leaving Winchester, Va earlier and coming across 55/North Mountain was around 32*F. However Wardensville back through Lost River has held steady at 34*F which was around 10:30pm tonite.

Got to Snowshoe at 1730 today Thursday. Besides a deer strike on the way up, it rained and rained. Temp has ranged around 38-40 on top of the mountain all night. Now at 2330, it seems to be dropping finally and it is 36 degrees.

As much as I would like to see snow tomorrow when I wake up, I'll believe it when I see it...

BRRRRIIINNNGGGGGGGRRIINNGGGGGGgggg....Your Snow Alarm just went off Ibotta...Rub your sleepy eyes & look outside & bring out the Kid in ya...SNOW!!!!!

Looks like Snowshoe only got an inch of snow as on 6 am this morning... not looking too good for the weekend.

They should pick up a little more this aft/eve along with the rest of the Western front areas.....Yeh, must be a latitude thing..SS at 1 inch..Canaan at 2.6 & Laurel Summit at 3.5..

10 inches in Clarksburg!! Holy crap! They canceled school here in Harrison County today, but I just thought it was because the roads were awfully WET this morning. I didn't know we got 10 inches. Must have been a 10'' dusting.....

I can't believe the SS ski report says "powder and groomed". No way 1" of new snow on top of wet trails can be called powder. Not even close.

BTW, I was looking at some of the weather details from this storm, and it looks like the cold was too slow in getting here this time. The heavy moisture fell as rain and was long gone before temps dropped enough to result in a lot of snow. Will be interesting to see how much wrap around there really is. I think the circulation is a lot weaker than expected right now.

Still snowing lightly here. I measured exactly 3" this morning.

What you just said in your post mirrored exactly my post at 7 pm back on tue where I also predicted 54 hours before the event the exact time of the changeover to snow which give or take 15 min was 1am for the WV Alpps...I said northern NH & Jay peak Vt would get the most snow which they have so far at 6 to 8 inches with more to go once they change back over to snow (raining now)....Now what is this about 10 inches in Clarksburg?...don't screw my f-cast up...I nailed this one!

Anyone wishing to subscribe to Fishnski's Ama-pro weather svc can PM me...I make Joe Bastardi of Accuweather look like a moron...all praise be to the fish......I am the greatest!...

Lou,
Was it your deer strike? Are you and your vehicle alright?

Andy, time to get off of that high horse. I am standing in waste deep powder here in North Central WV......

Waist deep to what? and where?

Dusting here this morn, changeover was so slow... our high for the day was 32 exactly and low was 30 yesterday AM... 1 degree lower and we would have had an amazing ice storm. Changed over to snow exactly when it was all ending. What a waste of a storm!

To a squirrel.... In Clarksburg

Looks like a few inches up on branch mountain between eastern and western hardy county. I can look out my window now and see a snow line at what appears to be around 2000-2500' >.

Did you slap the deer on top of the car, take it back to the condo, skin it, and setup a camp fire with good roasted deer tenderloin?!?! If so I'm driving over now!!

If it was a Pocahontas county deer then I imagine it was the other way around. You've got to watch out for them bad boys. (I'm sorry, I love posting pics......)

Yes indeed, going up the mountain. I was a bit shook up but the Jeep was unscathed. The deer - I know I killed it. :-( went off the road and understand from friends that it was on the side of the road going up the mountain.

Yeah you bet. Just came back from morning skiing. Been snowing all day. The slopes are a bit icy but actually quite skiable on the main basin. It will be worthwhile to ski tomorrow, as not only will we have snow, but also they've got every gun in the resort going full blast. The only thing - temperature is dropping like a rock. I wouldn't be surprised if single digits by early tomorrow AM. My dog Thunder was frolicking in the snow this morning. Happy Lab.

I'd rather let the folks at Whole Foods do that for me. And then marinate the venison in Herbs de Provence too. :-)

NWS is calling for a low of 9 degrees up there tonight! They should be able to blow some good snow with temps that low... who needs the natural stuff anyway, ha

Your a bad man..a very bad man David. But friggin hillarious too....loved your firework display over at the abe thread Shhhhhhh...don't think Snowsmith caught that.

No hate posts after my last post??!!?..folks at DCski are just too nice!

Ibotta will be reported to PITA...you can bet on that!Probably that real sweet innocent Doe that got on one of SS's pic of the day shots...

The radar loop is looking hopeful for some lake-effect / upslope snowshowers this evening across the WV highlands...

I think PITA is the bread and PETA is the animal organization...

And they're both a P.I.T.A sometimes.

Abe..you are on fire!..you trying to pass my post count by new years?...Just messin with you buddy..the more posts the merrier!...one thing though, I think that we have been asked not to post streaming or updating sites because of the strain it puts on the system..am I correct fellas & falitas?

Yeh..Clay...by the way, nice to see ya back & posting...I thought the guy sounded Greek when I called into PITA to report Ibotta's violation

You have a hard time digesting & disposing of PITA 219?...you muddah!

wow this is an active thread today...


upslope looks decent, few inches for highlands tonight

yeah... I was a little bored at work today... the thoughts of skiing this weekend at Snowshoe in a few inches of freshies helped pull me through the day though

I kinda like both... actually both are edible, aren't they? Just imagine, Venison Souvlaki!

Ya I have finals on monday and tuesday (4 finals within 28 hrs...). Probably been in the library for 30 hrs over the last few days and will be in here (am now) for another 30 this weekend and 10 or so on monday. Only thing getting me through is the idea that in a week and one day my new skis will be floating through some pow out at mammoth in CA. I cant imagine how anyone could live through winter if they were not a skier... what else is there to look forward to/do.. warm weather coming in 6 months???

It's puking here. At least 2 inches in the past 1.5 hrs. Thought about going ahead and making the drive to the Valley this evening, but I hear there are wrecks everywhere on I79. Probably just leave real early in the morning. Anyone know what's going on in the Valley?? Anyone gonna be up that way this weekend???

Must be nice to get that snow. Here it's just a few flurries with the mountain tops at 2000'+ still "frosted". I'm just waiting for the sky to dump like never before. I still say we are due for another 5 year or so blizzard.

We got a whole big ole winter yet to go thru...you got a good chance at your place Baywalker. It will be an interesting 3.5 months of weather watching here at the weather thread...Thats my Loooooonnngg range F-cast..Lets get thru this next warm up & then lets hope everybody has a white X-mas!.....I'm sleep posting....

3 inches from Snowshoe up thru canaan & on up to PA's Laurel Summit for the after storm goodies..could be worse..9 degrees at SS this morn with about 12 at canaan & 13 at 7springs.

Really not at all a bad weekend for skiing. Tomorrow should be fantastic, plenty of fresh manmade and few days to groom out the old stuff! Looks like next week is going to be a little messy again, alternating between rain/snow and warm/cold (monday could be a good spring like day), hopefully not nearly as heavy rain this round. After next week it does look as if we are going to dive into another very cold pattern just in time for the holiday. Looks like any skiing plans for christmas should be in good shape.

Snowshoe Wv high up in the WV Alpps is still blowing away the competition with a year to date 89 inches of Snow...Northern NH & upstate NY areas are reporting about 37 inches while Snowy Stowe reports 76 for the year so far. I have never trusted Killingtons Snow count in case they are reporting a higher amount..
Beavercreek,CO has recieved 82 for the year...so we are hangin tough with the big ole bad boys out west...we know that won't last though!

I will add that after spending a week skiing Beavercreek & Vail & never seeing a Snowflake the Mtn ski Report every morning had a new 2 to 4 inches..stealth Snow I guess...Doesn't take much moisture to ring out a couple of inches at 11,500'...

Fortunately the big boys out west do not get much underdeveloped snow!
The Colonel

I think the neckrace between Snowshoe and the West is about to come to a crashing close. There is a monster storm that is pounding everything from Bellingham to Taos. 2-4 feet in a lot of the mountains forecasted. But besides this, for many resorts- particularly in UT- it's been dry so far.

The WV Alpps will rise again!...Just not this week ...I keep seeing the Snow word popping up for this week in the F-casts but I will have to see it to believe it. I don't think anyone will even be able to make Snow till Fri nite...Could get real cold Sat nite/Sun..A place like SS might find an hour or 2 Window to blast the guns Maybe..Next weeks F-cast is way above my Paygrade...

Yeh..the west is Coming back...Sucking all the cold air out of Alaska..Barrow hit a record high yestersay & hit the Record this morn (30) as soon as it hit 1201am....whats it going to get to up in Montana...25 to 30 below?..add the Wind & Fo get a-bout it!

Hope so! All the old time Tucker county locals say, "the big snows won't come till the rivers are full" Last weeks rain finally helped that, and looks like more on the way this week?

I was considering using a vaca day to hit up Massanutten or Wintergreen this Friday before the rates and crowds increase. I'm no expert, but the forecast for this week does not look promising. To you weather nuts out there (I don't mean that in a bad way), any chance we might scrape a decent day out of Friday, or should I save my vacation?

WTG looks questionable the rest of the week because of rain and warm temps. It's a pity -- the snow was great there yesterday.

Watch for the new thread.

I wouldn't skip work till early next week...Weekend should be cold & better... Like comprex said..L-Ski's new thread update will come out wed which is a perfect time to plan your friday skip or weekend plans.

At the beach Fish? How is it down there right now? Its almost 70 degrees here. I think I get my flip flops out......

Never saw the beach today..Working & sweating my (censered)off!..Don't know what it got up to today but it felt summerlike...It will be mild all week & then cool down next weekend. our weather runs 12 to 24 hrs behind WV & about 25 (ave) degrees warmer. The beach water has cooled down big time so our temp depends a whole lot on which way the winds blowin & how close you are to the water.The ocean also keeps us warmer on many cold nites, just warm enough for me to have 6 different species of Palms at my house....TMI your saying?..

Yeah, just a little. It's warm enough out right now to grow some good hot peppers. Mmmm....peppers. Go real well with some good Italian sausage. Oh wait, let's not start that again

So this weather, things looking good for Monday and Tuesday in the Valley?? I'll be there regardless. Anyone else going to be in town??

Palms? Palms without coconuts are as useless as...Coconuts without rums are as useless as ... Figs now, figs make good eatin', can even use them as stuffing or instead of apples like in sausage...

See what you started David?..My Neighbor grows figs...I do love the coconut palm but I have to settle with the Pindo,Sable minor,Sable major(tall cabbage palm),Chinese windmill,Mexican fan,Mediterranean palm,sago,..& i'm trying to get a canary date palm to grow....Hmmmm..that is 8 types!...I have some norway Spruce,Blue Spruce,Douglass fir,Canaan balsam fir & 1 red Spruce with about 11 White Birches growing at my camp at 2900'near Canaan....every one at both camps planted by me!

This is what I really don't miss about back east: the weather is all over the place. Yeah, it's all over the place in KC too but we have no true skiing nearby to ruin. Today our low was 1, with a windchill of -15. I think our high was 9 or 10. Nice, but there might be rain on Thursday, but it doesn't matter. I almost hope for warmer weather because it keeps the heating bills down and the gas mileage up.

It was so frustrating back in the Mid-A watching two or three weeks of good snow and cold go up in smoke, I don't miss that. It's even raining up at Whiteface today, sheesh.