Wed. Feb 11th through Wed. Feb. 18th:

Unfortunately, my forecast for last week was correct (seems like I am more often right with a rainy forecast than a snowy forecast, not fair) and temps outside are in the mid 60's to over 70 near the district. April 11th or February 11th??? Thankfully, today will be the last of this crazy warmth and by later in the day tomorrow, we should be back to near normal. Currently, the situation is one which the entire area is sitting in the center of a huge pool of warm air with winds out of the south at 5-10 mph with higher gusts. A very strong cold front is making its way east, presently located just west of the apps (at about 3 pm), and should impact our area west to east from around 8:30 pm this evening through just after midnight.


Short Term (through Thursday eve):

Temps this afternoon should continue to rise near, and in many cases, well above daily records. Temps will hit around 70 to 73 near DC and around 60-65 in mountain locations. Around 8:30 to 9:30 the front should begin impacting areas from west to east. The frontal passage should be accompanied by this years first round of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, lasting up to an hour with lingering showers throughout the night. Rainfall totals through tomorrow morning will be around .25-.75 inches (higher amounts in higher elevations and more intense T-storms). The most dominate impact of this front will be the winds. High wind warnings and advisories are posted for the entire area. Winds are forecasted to gust up to 70 mph on ridgelines and near 50 mph elsewhere.
By around 5 AM tomorrow, I expect the rain showers will have let up in lower locations and will start transitioning to rain/snow then to snow from west to east. The snow showers will slowly diminish by tomorrow evening with possible light slushy accumulations over the highest elevations. Winds will remain very strong, often sustained over 30 mph throughout the day. Temps will plummet throughout the day and reach freezing in the mountains and around 40 in the city shortly after sunset. Tomorrow night, temps will drop into the 20's for the mountains and mid to high 30's in and around the city. Any lingering snow showers should dissipate overnight along with the gusty winds .


Long Term (Friday through next Wednesday):

Cold again! Friday should be a little closer to normal for this time of year (still about 5-8 degrees above avg) with temps in the mid 30's in the mnts and high 40's closer to the district. Skies should be mostly clear across the area. For Friday night, good snowmaking conditions should finally return for higher elevations along with marginal snowmaking conditions for lower elevations. Unfortunately, lows will not get too low due to southerly winds ahead of Saturday's system (just a bit cooler than Thursday night).
Saturday is when things get interesting. As of now, I would estimate light snow starts early in the day from west to east possibly mixing with rain closer to DC and points south. My guess of the rain/snow line is right over DC with Fredericksburg likely being mostly rain, mix in DC, and all snow in Fredrick. Accumulation wise, I expect from 3-6 for the WVA, western MD, central to NW VA, and western PA ridgelines tapering to 1-3 for central PA and 1-2 from Fredrick west in MD. For the DC area, if the snow can persist into the nighttime hours, it is possible points north and west of the city will pick up a slushy dusting or inch but definitely not likely. Temps should be just below freezing at most resorts, just above for the more local DC areas, and near 40 in and around the city. Overall, any accumulations will likely be light... lets hope I am wrong. For Saturday night, snow should slowly taper off by midnight except lingering upslope for the normal areas (high elevations in PA, MD, and WVA). By Sunday, things should have cleared out and we will be left with cool temps and sunny skies. Temps for Sunday will be around 40 to 45 near DC and in the mid 20's to around freezing in the mountains.
Monday through Tuesday currently looks boring and generally about average for this time of year with temps near 40 for the DC area and in the mid 20's to near freezing for resorts with partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions each day.
Next system on tap will approach the area next Wednesday... could be rain or snow, don't want to guess at this point.

Thanks for your efforts. These reports are great and we appreciate it.

If you look at the Sat model temps L-Ski , they just look too warm for snow till eve (south of mason/dixon)..Guess it will be some wet snow. I'm Betting Late Tue/Wed is a winner for the WV Snow country.
..& then there seems to be this train of Storms from west to east taking place all the way till March 1st (& beyond?) and if the cold air push from the north can holds its ground then we are in for a good Time!

Well, the first part of your forecast is spot on. Here in North Central WV we experienced winds like I have never seen. I was driving home and I could literally see the rain/storm 100 yards infront of me. Needless to say that after I got into it there was nothing but total whiteout from the hail, rain, and crazy winds. It took me 15 minutes to get home from that point (shouldn't have been more than 3). When I got back into my neighborhood there were overturned trampolines and crap everywhere. The roof blew off of the gym at my Dad's basketball game last night. Also heard that someone was killed in McDowell County because of a roof blowing off during a basketball game...

Wow, what an experience!! Mother nature was mad about something.... maybe it was the "Winter is Over" thread??

wow.. ya crazy storms. we only had the rain/winds here.

unfortunate this weekends storm is going to fizzle out,likely only scattered minor accumulations

I may be jumping the gun a little but what are your thoughts on next weekend (actually the following Monday/Tuesday)? The models are showing lots of precip but the temps may be marginal.

Edit: The temps look much colder now. Guess it just means not to pay attention to the models that far out.

The Alpps will have to wait for the storm on Wed to pass before they reap the Snow Benifits on the backside which will suck down some colder air to carry some snow action into fri....Anybody that follows weather has heard the term Phasing..Phasing of the Northern Branch & southern one...that is what we need in this west to east pattern we have now for the big one...I'm confident on a decent end to Feb though...Chirp in with your thoughts anybody!!!...

I'm just glad to see the 8 to 14 day outlook still showing below normal temps for our area... hopefully we get some good precip to go along with the cold temps as well!

Thanks Abe. I've always seen those maps but never known where they came from. Have you followed them long enough to know how accurate they are? I noticed they include a confidence with the forecasts and it was a 4 out 5 on the map you linked.

i would not yet look out to the following mon/tues. the general idea is that we are in a cold zonal pattern which means that it is unlikely over the next two weeks or so we will see any intense heat or cold spells. However, the cold is here and most likely for at least the foreseeable future we will continue to see below average to average temps. We should have systems come into the region on the order of every 3-5 days or so, only problem may be mixing if we get too much warm air advection (basically just hope we tap into the cold up north and not the warmth down south). Ill post a real update on tues or wed

Feb 14...this day back in 2003 a Cold Zonal flow type (Zonal with cold pushing down from the north) of storm came across & blew up big time when it got to the coast...Chased me & Betterhalfski from Baltimore (DUMPING!) all the way up the coast to Vermont where we Skied Stowe for our 10 year anniversary!...28 inches in Baltimore with Higher amounts in the countryside....keep hope Alive..& Stay tuned!

I believe that last year's Valentines Day Storm was the biggest dump of the VT season. Correct me if I'm wrong.

...Wed..5pm..

Temp has dropped 4 degrees up at Canaan in the last 45 min..A little upslope Snow action tonite & then late Wed nite thru fri ( I was a day early on quoted F-cast) morn The valley will be in Snow country & then it starts again Sat...Gar-un-Teed a good weekend next weekend in the Alpps!....Course I could be wrong

Could have been Denis..The Storm that I was refering to did not make it up to Stowe..We ran out of it somewhere in Conn. It did bring crazy cold temps to northern Vermont..we woke up to 22 below which was the coldest temp that I have ever experienced..No skiing that day!

I hope next weekend is good, because I gotta admit, 4 years of college in Elkins and 3 additional years in the mountain state and I have never been to to T-line, mostly because I probably never had the money and T-line wasn't even open till my senior year of college (83-84). Lift ticket prices would buy a lot of beer in those days. I was hoping to make it there this year but my dance card is getting full. Assuming I don't make it next weekend, what can I expect the first two weekends of March?? The underlying question here is what is T-line's commitment to snowmaking and grooming it into March??

I have followed these for quite a few years and my opinion is that for the short-term (14 days) they are not bad, but they are terrible for anything longer than that. It's not that they don't get the long range right sometimes (even a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut ) it's is that they are not consistently accurate enough for me to feel that they are even worth the time to look out. I know long range predictions are not easy but if you can't get 'above average', 'average' and 'below average' correct somewhat consistently, I think we're spending our tax dollars in the wrong place.

I'm with you there Clay!..Good thing nobody pays me for any weather info...snowed an inch last nite from SS up thru to 7springs & there were still flakes on the 9am DS cam...OPPS!...It didn't look like that batch would make it...to get back to longer range F-casts (15/20 days), all I look for is trends...Ridge build ups..Ect.."
...Been watching the last weekend in Feb (family/friend get-together in Canaan) which has gone from good to bad on the latest Long range GFS...still time for it to go back to positive!

Where did today's snow come from??

Plenty of new/good snow in the Valley today to make for some good skiing on the sides of trails. I had a blast!! Not to mention that there was no one there!!

I consider the "Long Range" forecast anything beyond 7 days... 7-14 all you can really look at is trends and for the possibility of a storm within a window of time. Anything past 14 is like flipping a coin, we just dont have the capability of forecast that far out.

The forecast discussion from the Charleston NWS office is calling for snow accumulations Thursday night to reach "advsiory or possibly warning criteria" in the mountains!

That sounds promising... bring it on!

KeithT i have it from very reliable sources that Timberline will make snow through March first. The month of march is *generally* one of the snowiest in Canaan Valley so stay tuned.

Watching the weather this week--Winter looks like it will be back in CV.

keithT, what you will find is that March is THE month to ski in the mid-atlantic. The sun is warmer and the temps are too. Usually, there can be some mighty big dumps that month as well. What eludes me is the reason so many folks stop skiing in March. If there were more late season customers, we would probably ski well into April instead of just the first weekend. Jimmy's right that they will make snow as needed. Some years it's just not needed.

Feb gets good snows too..(But I am a march lover also)...& this Thur thru Mon there will be very nice amount of sweetness laid down in the mid Atlantic highlands!...I won't be up there till the following week..save us some!

Anyone got an update on the upslope event Thursday / Thursday night or the storm coming through the area Saturday night? Any idea what kind of accumulations we could be looking at?

Wouldn't mind being a skier at Jay this week. Looks like PERFECT weather conditions...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...72.3831&e=0

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...nit=0&lg=en

BAMMM!!...right back at ya!....MPC Rules!

Here's a good opportunity to see which of the three NWS offices does the best for the highlands.

For Thursday only:

NWS Charleston -- calling for 4-6 inches
NWS Pittsburgh -- calling for 1-2 inches
NWS Balt/Wash -- calling for 1-3 inches

Who do you have your money on, Andy?

Speaking of MPC, I forgot to mention something yesterday....

On my way out of the Valley on Monday the sky was as blue as could be. Coming over the hill and down the mountain on 32 I saw MPC in all of its glory and splendor. I was surprised (why should I have been huh??) to see that the top several hundred feet was covered in huge clouds that was most likely dumping light and fluffy stuff all over it..... And I thought of the Statue of Andy and how it must be cold and lonely......

charleston account for lift and elevation they will be the closest.

You know its Charleston Jonjon..They are in the Hood!...Yeh David, Mpc is fun to watch before & after Storms...can't see it during!. I like to remind folks that if your just gazing up at these fingers of detreed slopes spilling off the Roaring plains you are not seeing MPC...its tucked back further.

Hows this for a formula...take the high end of each office which is 6/2/3 add them up & divide by 2 which is 5.5...

I like the formula!

LOL, NWS Balt/Wash has issued a Winter Storm Warning (for 4-6") and NWS Charleston has issued a Winter Weather Advisory. NWS Pittsburgh has yet to pull the trigger on anything, and probably won't until it starts snowing. Man they are useless!

Looks like the warning area does not include Tucker Co. Seems like the focus is south of MPC--Spruce and Bald Knobs, but this does make a whole lot of sense to me. Weather wise, they can't be that far apart, particulalry Spruce and MPC. My recollection is that you can easily see one from the other (or at least from the gas line up to the plains on that side).

Add the 30 to 40 knot winds to the (5.5 "'s)....& that spells

BLIZZARD!!!...& thats just thur...

The Pittsburgh office took 91 minutes longer to issue their advisory but there's one for Tucker county too now.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...nit=0&lg=en


What was that about Jay Vermont??....Save your Carbon Footprint for WV...

Looks like a great weekend to have chosen to be skiing somewhere other than the Valley..... 3-5" tomorrow and 2-4'' overnight in the Valley and <1" at BK!!

I'm liking that forecast for MPC... just might have to take a vacation day Friday

Does anybody know if the snow showers forecasted for the weekend are supposed to amount to much?

I don't think anyone Knows for sure How much we will get out of the Sat event Abe...storm has been hyped a little & now there's some folks getting the heebeegeebee's. David & Crew might get a nice blast up at BK from this one over the weekend & I'm sure WV areas will do allright (they always manage to pull somthing out of the clouds!)...Speaking of the Snow Devil..You shorted the 1 to 2 late tonite..Add that to the 3 to 5 & the 2 to 4..Don't short the Alpps Homes..we need all we can get!

I would guess that dave up in the highlands is reporting 10 inches or more by sat and even more by Sunday. Sorry but no real forecast today, I have a big stat exam to study for.

Already around 3 inches in the Valley!! Temp is dropping! DS Webcam is looking purty white!

Looking Good Homey Snowcone breath!!..?

Anyone up for dinner at Muttley's tonite??

GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD...
TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS
932 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES MAY BE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES. BLUSTERY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

Don't know if I can make it up in time. If I am able to miss tomorrow and can get out of here in time then I'll see ya there.

Toughest commute to Oakland from Davis that I've had in my five years of living here! Snow and wind were crazy and the roads were slippery because of the warm temps we had yesterday. My assistant went off into a ditch and had to be towed -- along with many others.

CK THE WALL AT Muttleys & when you find my Graffiti you are free to take a pic of it...on me!...& please question the size of shot glasses that they use...thank you for your support..

jonjon, Stupid question maybe but will the roads get better or worse?

Tough to say. I'm gonna take my chances on the roads and head home soon. The weather is very squally now, heavy snow followed by lighter snow with the sun peeking through. I'm hoping that mid to late afternoon sun peeks may help the roads. But if we get heavy squalls after sunset then the roads will go back to being hairy.

They are saying another piece of energy is poised to swing thru this aft so don't count on the break...Steady as she goes!

Oh man... It's really coming down over there!!

Is it at all likely that Canaan would be able to open any more terrain tomorrow? Liftopia.com has lift tickets for $21... otherwise I'll probably head over to Snowshoe.

It is fairly likely that CV will have more open within the next few days. As for tomorrow?? Its a long shot. They had a whole lot of brown this past weekend, and with yesterday's rain I'm sure things didn't get better. I'd say the Shoe is your best bet. Although CV would be pretty sweet if they had a base...

I bet all you CV residents are skiing today. When you get home how about a report on how much snow the valley received.

Thanks

Got about 8". Still some squalls around so we may squeeze another inch or two.

So glad the snow came -- the B&B is full this weekend of cross country skiiers that we may have lost if it didn't come. We even have some people driving all the way here from Asheville, NC, to ski -- just for one day!!

BTW folks, jonjon is very modest about it, but he and his wife run the great Meyer House B&B in Davis. I recommend it highly:
http://www.dcski.com/articles/view_article.php?article_id=869

PS: thanks for all the great weather updates over the years jonjon.

Thanks Jim! Would love to have you out again sometime -- we've done a lot of upgrading since you did that article.

hey jon, your gonna send those XC skiers to WG right? Blackwater falls will be much too crowded!

I'll make sure Blackwater Falls is all yours Crunchy!!

The DC NWS office has issued a winter storm watch through Sunday night for 5-7" for the Allegheny front!

Was anybody over at Timberline yesterday? Were conditions pretty good? I'm planning to head there tomorrow...

TL webcam looks busy today but I bet you have the place to yourself after noon tomorrow...with it DUMPIN!!..Save me some snow for the following weekend Abe!

160 inches of Snow recorded so far at 3715' Canaan!

Looks like another 8 inches could fall up in the Land of Canaan by mon morn!....Got friends who live in Hagerstown,md & the DC area who don't have a clue what goes on just a little further west & a little higher up than them!

I'm calling for 10" by the time this is done on Monday. Lets see what happens.

I also just noticed that NWS Pittsburgh is actually calling for the highest amount of snowfall for here. Well, I'm off to ponder that at the Golden Anchor over some wine and seafood. Cheers.

Hey Jonjon..I can walk to the Golden anchor in 5 min from my place up there...the valley of the Alpps!..the only thing that dampers my enthusiasm for higher snow totals is the fact that they have all dropped the winter storm watches for weather adviseries...it should be a nice one though!

All those Cabins the Owner of the GA built there seem to be doing well..As far as I can see when I'm up there...& you ought to bow down to MPC while there & pray because that IS the Mtn to bring MUCH better buis to the valley area!...

Friday at Tline was great! Not as much powder as we expected (a little cold too), but we found some pretty sweet runs through the trees in the afternoon....

The way I knew that the wind would be blowing I figured that the 8 inches of Snow that had just fallin would just disappear or vaperize into wherever!..need that pretty snow to get the best benifits..unfortunately we really havn't been "dumped" on today (Canaan) as well...so far..how was blueknob?...

Snow has picked up recently here. Over 4" so far.

Long way to go to 10" Buddy...Lets hope that there are some Embedded pieces of energy that can boost the total from now till mon Aft!....i've never been more frusterated on figuring next weekend out...12Z model just flippered & floppered...I have a large crew pulling in & threatened to cancel the get together a few days ago...Keep hope alive!...I guess..

6inches at Hidden Valley on sunday.

stopped on the way back from Blue Knob.

OK...the Snow stopped on the way back from Blueknob?...If you measured 6 inches at Hidden Valley does that mean it wasn't Snowing at Blueknob?

No, I think he means that they stopped to ski at Hidden Valley on the way back from Blue Knob...

Good call BW. Skied 7 Springs yesterday. Snowed all day, but it really started to puke around 1pm. I left a little after 7pm in whiteout conditions.

The weather forecast for the next two weeks isn't looking promising.

Yeh right Clay..got that ,but the question on the subject line was..Get any at Blueknob?..I was just curious if the DCski getogethers got any snow at the knob.

Ah. Sorry. Both questions confused me a bit

I talked to JohnL last night after I got home from BK (probably around 6) and he said that they had picked up about 2 inches since I left aroung 1:30.

There was some serious wind at BK last night (Sunday PM) and today, so the snow depths varied greatly. (We had 1-2 foot drifts near the cars in the driveway this AM. If he hadn't left early last night, JimK would have retired at the Knob.)

Blue Knob reported 4-6" on their website today (Monday.) I'd say that is a good conservative baseline; but it was very easy to find 6-12" on the trails. If you knew where to look and could limbo under a rope or two, there was the occasional near knee-deep.

The wind also blew off all the new snow in several of the normally windy places (especially at the top of the mountain and in the center of Stembogan.)