Weather for 2/2-2/4
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skier219
February 1, 2009
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
In case anyone wants to chase a storm, I figured I would discuss the data I am looking at.

First off, the weather models have sucked on this one -- flip flopping all over the place. The NWS grid forecast is like the tail on the dog, wagging out of phase a bit behind the models. So discount anything you have seen over the past couple days. This is what the models are saying right now. It may change yet again.

NAM:


Meso-NAM:


GFS:


And here's the legend:



BTW, on the maps, if you identify the "point" of MD sticking down into WV, and the "crook" in VA sticking into WV, that's pretty much the band between Snowshoe and Canaan Valley, give or take.

If this comes to pass, heavy snow will start overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect a good shot of snow on the ground by Tuesday morning. It will keep snowing on through the evening, so Wednesday we will see another coat of snow on the ground for the totals given in the charts (they are for 6am Wednesday).

I have little faith in the models at this point, but I figured I would present what I know. I am still bringing my fat skis to Snowshoe, but may not get to use them if the storm is a bust. I think it's a complete gamble at this point.
JimK - DCSki Columnist
February 1, 2009
Member since 01/14/2004 🔗
2,720 posts
Looks like 6-12" down south at places like Wintergreen and Massanutten to 18" in the Poconos, with a foot or more at all the ski areas in between? Yowsa!
skier219
February 1, 2009
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Well, I will believe it when I see it (and fortunately I'll be at SS no matter what). Too many of these storms turn out to be a bust in recent years. On the bright side, TL got 10-12" out of a storm that was only showing 2-4" a few weeks ago, so sometimes it's wrong in the right direction crazy.
bousquet19 - DCSki Supporter
February 1, 2009
Member since 02/23/2006 🔗
699 posts
Jim, the Poconos look like they're going to get slammed, but I'm reading Nelson County VA (Wintergreen)as white to light pink (0 to 2"). Hmm...but that's on the bottom map. The top map looks like what you said.

Ol' Skier 219 is right; the models are flip-flopping all over on this one. If there's a snow day on Tuesday (again), it's "on the road again"!

Woody
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skier219
February 1, 2009
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Here's AccuWeather's latest take:



But the models have flip-flopped once again.

How about this -- I will measure how much snow falls on the ground and call that an aftercast wink.
Abe
February 2, 2009
Member since 11/14/2008 🔗
366 posts
Man... it seems they really don't have any idea what this storm is going to do. I guess all we can do is cross our fingers and wait and see what happens!
Clay
February 2, 2009
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
Originally Posted By: skier219

How about this -- I will measure how much snow falls on the ground and call that an aftercast wink.


I like that idea!
SCWVA
February 2, 2009
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,051 posts
Craig or Fish,

Any updates?

Anyone storm chasing on Tuesday or Wednesday?
David
February 2, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Originally Posted By: SCWVA
Anyone storm chasing on Tuesday or Wednesday


I'm thinking about running up to Wisp on Thursday if the schedule will allow. Any chance you are "stopping" through on the way to work??
BushwackerinPA
February 2, 2009
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
Originally Posted By: SCWVA
Craig or Fish,

Any updates?

Anyone storm chasing on Tuesday or Wednesday?



maybe wednesday down to timberline or blue knob or springs. It really depends on whats open.

so yeah one of those three areas, I really wont ski anywhere else though.
jimmy
February 2, 2009
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
Originally Posted By: BushwackerinPA
Originally Posted By: SCWVA
Craig or Fish,

Any updates?

Anyone storm chasing on Tuesday or Wednesday?



maybe wednesday down to timberline or blue knob or springs. It really depends on whats open.

so yeah one of those three areas, I really wont ski anywhere else though.


NOAA just (10:55am) posted winter weather advisory for WV mountains, 2-4 inches through 10:00 pm Monday. Sounds like if there is a storm to chase Wednesday will be the day to chase it.
crunchy
February 2, 2009
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
Originally Posted By: SCWVA
Craig or Fish,

Any updates?



word on the street is fishnski has been pontificating big storms to the local businessmen of Davis eek

Originally Posted By: BushwackerinPA


maybe wednesday down to timberline or blue knob or springs. It really depends on whats open.

so yeah one of those three areas, I really wont ski anywhere else though.


oh man, think of all the untouched glades you would be depriving yourself of by leaving white grass off that list. a whole mountain of untracked powder in maintained glades that now has a base is worth earning turns for!? smile
BushwackerinPA
February 2, 2009
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
Originally Posted By: crunchy
Originally Posted By: SCWVA
Craig or Fish,

Any updates?



word on the street is fishnski has been pontificating big storms to the local businessmen of Davis eek

Originally Posted By: BushwackerinPA


maybe wednesday down to timberline or blue knob or springs. It really depends on whats open.

so yeah one of those three areas, I really wont ski anywhere else though.


oh man, think of all the untouched glades you would be depriving yourself of by leaving white grass off that list. a whole mountain of untracked powder in maintained glades that now has a base is worth earning turns for!? smile



ok forgot that one.
tomimcmillar
February 2, 2009
Member since 11/21/2004 🔗
129 posts
only problem is that damn crust that set up 2 weeks ago, hope for enough depth to bury that shite....

from today's WG report:

Quote:
breakable crust in the woods, challenging!
crunchy
February 2, 2009
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
Originally Posted By: tomimcmillar
only problem is that damn crust that set up 2 weeks ago, hope for enough depth to bury that shite....



yeah man crust = bomber base for the new stuffs! smile

im not sure that crust blurb is totally up to date tho. i heard from everyone saturdays skiing was superb even in the glades. "off the hook" was even one description. i skied yesterday and found condish to be pretty soft from the warmth, but was only on the springer/cathedral side. guess its all relative to where you are because there are so many aspects to that mountain.
BushwackerinPA
February 2, 2009
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
ok so whats the report from timberline area right now? looks to have been snowing down there quite a bit.

anyone want to ski tomorrow?
SCWVA
February 2, 2009
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,051 posts
BW,

If I go on Wednesday, I'd like to hit up BK. 7S & Wisp will be closer for me.

Anyone skiing in the am?
jimmy
February 2, 2009
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
Originally Posted By: BushwackerinPA
ok so whats the report from timberline area right now? looks to have been snowing down there quite a bit.

anyone want to ski tomorrow?


Yeah what's going on down there??

I do want to ski tomorrow, i want to ski ever day but I'm shooting for a leave tomorrow evening to ski wednesday at Tline, that's what i'm thinking now.
SCWVA
February 2, 2009
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,051 posts
BW

Check for a PM from me later tonight.
Abe
February 2, 2009
Member since 11/14/2008 🔗
366 posts
Man, that was quite the front! We have dropped 22 degrees in the past 4 hours in Harrisonburg. At lunch I was outside in a short sleeve shirt - sunny and 55 - then when I came out of work at 4:30 it was down to 33 degrees and snowing!

We've got about an inch so far here with steady snow still coming down.
skier219
February 2, 2009
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
We had snow showers all morning at Snowshoe, then it puked snow from noon till about 5pm, dropping 3-5" inches of light powder. The afternoon skiing was really great. Back to snow showers right now.

From what I am seeing on the maps and in the models, this may be it for a while. Heavy snow starts back up Tuesday evening and should dump another 7" by Wednesday mid-day.

I still don't have a lot of faith in the models, so take it all with a grain of salt. As the cold air pushes down and across the area, moisture in the air may be released to give snow where we can't really see/predict it happening in advance.
Clay
February 2, 2009
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
Here at the base of Timberline at 1800, I'm showing 26.4 degrees and the deck shows about 2 1/4" with moderate snow falling and calm winds
BushwackerinPA
February 2, 2009
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
are you skiiing there tomorrow clay?
Clay
February 2, 2009
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
Probably in the morning. My wife tells me I need to come home for a few days.
David
February 2, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Looks like I was able to mess around with my schedule enough to definitely make it to Wisp on Thursday (Dang the Air Force!!). Anyone going to be out that way then??

I guess it won't be that bad, as I should hopefully be getting a nice new pair of boots too!!
skier219
February 3, 2009
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Another 3-4" inches overnight at Snowshoe from what I can see looking at the porch rail (I wiped it off last night). They are saying 4" in the snow report. It was puking when we woke up about 30 minutes ago, but has tapered off to a shower.

The models are suggesting 6" for tonight into tomorrow afternoon.

I think it's time to cue the A-Team music -- the fat skis are coming out!

bousquet19 - DCSki Supporter
February 3, 2009
Member since 02/23/2006 🔗
699 posts
Get out there, Craig! Say hi to Mr. T.

Thanks for your interesting posts on this weather complex. This morning there's an inch of snow with an thin icy surface here in the northern Shenandoah Valley. Temperature just before 8:00 a.m. is 25 degrees F, with an expected high of 36. Overnight low tonight expected to be 21 (Accuweather), and the next 48+ hours should be fine for 'round-the-clock snowmaking.

Another "Silver Streak" lesson at Liberty tomorrow morning!

Woody
Clay
February 3, 2009
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
Craig!
Thanks for the music! I'm sitting here at my table orchestrating a high school band piece and waiting for the slopes to open and it was a definite pick me up!
skier219
February 3, 2009
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
So there was more like 6-10" of powder on the slopes this morning, even deeper in spots, which was nice. I guess the porch rail is not a good instrument here! They left a lot of the mountain ungroomed, and I didn't see any snowmaking, which is nice. Nothing ticks me off more than when they blow concrete snow on top of natural powder or groom right after a natural snowfall (seen both here before). Grooming was limited to greens and connector trails, which is about right.

It's snowing lightly now, and should amount to another 2-4" by morning. Another 4-6" should drop through the day Wednesday into the early AM hours of Thursday. Unfortunately, we drive home tomorrow afternoon! But it's been great having one, hopefully two, powder days.
David
February 4, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Originally Posted By: skier219
So there was more like 6-10" of powder on the slopes this morning, even deeper in spots, which was nice. I guess the porch rail is not a good instrument here! They left a lot of the mountain ungroomed, and I didn't see any snowmaking, which is nice. Nothing ticks me off more than when they blow concrete snow on top of natural powder or groom right after a natural snowfall (seen both here before). Grooming was limited to greens and connector trails, which is about right.

It's snowing lightly now, and should amount to another 2-4" by morning. Another 4-6" should drop through the day Wednesday into the early AM hours of Thursday. Unfortunately, we drive home tomorrow afternoon! But it's been great having one, hopefully two, powder days.


Sounds awesome man!! You couldn't have picked a better time to be up there. You gotta love when plans work out like that!!
SCWVA
February 4, 2009
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,051 posts
It snowed all day today at 7 Springs. 2" overnite and 6-8" during the day today. Still snowing when I left. Tomorrow should be sweet.
David
February 4, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Originally Posted By: SCWVA
It snowed all day today at 7 Springs. 2" overnite and 6-8" during the day today. Still snowing when I left. Tomorrow should be sweet.


That's good to hear. I'll be at Wisp tomorrow all by myself. Anyone else want to ski?
Adam
February 4, 2009
Member since 01/28/2009 🔗
10 posts
Yes...but there are credits to analyze so I'll have to wait until Saturday. 45 degrees and soft snow. Should be pretty good even if we get some rain.
David
February 4, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Originally Posted By: Adam
Yes...but there are credits to analyze so I'll have to wait until Saturday. 45 degrees and soft snow. Should be pretty good even if we get some rain.



Credits to analyze?? Come on. Meet at the Squirrel Cage lift. We'll take the first chair!!
The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
February 4, 2009
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
Skier219 talked about all the powder at Snowshoe this week. I note they are over 155" in natural snowfall this year. That's 13 feet!
The Colonel smile
skier219
February 4, 2009
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
So I should close out by noting that I was treated to 2-4" of powder over corduroy this morning (they groomed nearly everything last night) which was an easy, delightful surface to ski on wide skis. It was snowing up until the time we left in the afternoon, and I see another 3-4" in the cards overnight. Tomorrow ought to be another great day.

Funny, driving down the mountain, there was nothing more than a dusting by the time we got to Cass. Snowshoe really does have a micro climate. Some of the mountain ranges we crossed traveling east into VA also had decent amounts.
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