Depressing mid-Atlantic forecast
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k_alice
December 28, 2007
Member since 11/22/2005 🔗
92 posts
I know Accuweather doesn't have the most stellar reputation, but there aren't too many 15-day forecasts out there. And besides a few nights of cold temps next week, the next 2 weeks or so don't look great. Anyone know of a more promising forecast for the mid-Atlantic ski resorts? I'm hoping these resorts can pull off a decent season, financially.
The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
December 29, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
Actually, the forecast for next week looks great! There should be four days of near 24/7 snowmaking weather: Tues through Fri.
Sat and Sun to be mid to low 40s, with clouds and sun.
Now if we could only get some of that western snow here, or move the Rockies to WVA. Mt. Hood has had 14 feet of snow this month, 11 feet since Dec. 15. And Alta in Utah has surpassed their massive Dec. average and it is still snowing, over 100" so far this month!
The Colonel \:\)
Reisen
December 29, 2007
Member since 01/25/2005 🔗
364 posts
Skiing Mount Hood on the 11th and 12th of January!
k_alice
December 29, 2007
Member since 11/22/2005 🔗
92 posts
[quote= There should be four days of near 24/7 snowmaking weather: Tues through Fri. [/quote]

Yeah, I saw that, maybe it's enough to build up the base. Here in Virginia, last night's rain really took a toll on the slopes. I was also looking past next week, and saw a lot of days are not predicted to go below freezing. But perhaps it's not worth looking that far out...

As for western skiing, we're heading to Colorado in a few weeks.
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Bumps
December 29, 2007
Member since 12/29/2004 🔗
538 posts
My wife gave me a reservation for a canaan ski weekend for XMAS, on the 11th and 12th. I am debating moving it to later Jan. I would like to go sooner but hate to spend the weekend skiing two slopes.
Roger Z
December 29, 2007
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Unfortunately, both Accuweather and weather.com are showing the arctic blast as a one-time hit, presaging a zonal flow that is going to bring warmer weather everywhere east of the Rockies by next weekend. \:\( My wife is thrilled- she's been wearing 3-5 layers a day for about five days now- but it doesn't look good in the short-term, at least.

The big question is, how long will the zonal flow hold? In my completely untrained opinion, the fact that there hasn't been a good, sustained cold snap for the east coast yet says that we're in for a good run later this winter (that "we" being everything east of the Rockies, or at least the Mississippi- though I hope KC partakes of the eastern goodies!). It just won't be beginning this week, according to the weather oracles.
JohnL
December 29, 2007
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,516 posts
Josh, the Mad River Glen weather guru link , is not real optimistic about January in Vermont. But February and March are the money months, and as long as the bases don't erode to much due to very warm weather or massive rain, it should make for a nice consolidated base. Of course, you need snow on the ground for that to happen. Not as much of that in the Mid-Atlantic compared to Vermont.
The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
December 29, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
Bumps,
If you are staying at the Canaan Valley Lodge I know they are offering the Ski The Valley pass which allows skiing at both Timberlin and Canaan Ski Areas.
The Colonel \:\)
fishnski
December 29, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
El nina seems to be great for the pacific storm factory which leaves the west(& northern NE) in great shape but the Mid Atl suffers on survival mode...waiting for little windows in between systems for snowmaking but with the Arctic sweeping in occasionally for hope.(The Alpps will get 3 straght days of Lake fluff this week) I said back in oct sometime that we could get a good NE'ster which would even things out a little....there have been hints & chances for this to happen but we fell short thusfar. I'm looking for a great tailend to this winter...we ain't just going to MARCH into spring........PS..Wish I could be at TL pub this New years eve Hootin & hollering when the cold front blasts thru at midnite or shortly thereafter...Love seeing those snowflakes swirlin around those large lit up windows!!!
fishnski
December 29, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Remember that when talkin Mid Atl we are talkin lowlands & western Highlands...For example..its 50 at whitetail(900') at 2pm but is 31 at 3800' up in Canaan Valley..
Bumps
December 29, 2007
Member since 12/29/2004 🔗
538 posts
 Originally Posted By: The Colonel
Bumps,
If you are staying at the Canaan Valley Lodge I know they are offering the Ski The Valley pass which allows skiing at both Timberlin and Canaan Ski Areas.
The Colonel \:\)


Thanks. I am. She got a package for me I will see if it includes the pass for both mountains!
skier219
December 29, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Unfortunately, Accuweather does not take elevation into account, at least with their Snowshoe and Wintergreen forecasts (the two I happen to follow). So knock 5-10 deg F off their forecasts in most cases. That won't offset the La Nina effects we're seeing, but it paints a less grim picture.

I am planning to ski late next week, perhaps on the weekend too. We ought to have great snow going into that timeframe due to the cold temps and snowmaking opportunities. Snowshoe is calling for snow showers from Sunday night through Wednesday. Showers can stack up out there for a decent amount over a couple days.


The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
December 29, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
I agree with the prognosis that next weekend should have good skiing after 4 or so days of 24/7 snowmaking, and perhaps some natural. I hope to be at Seven Springs with my son's family and grandkids.
The Colonel \:\)
johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
December 30, 2007
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,923 posts
Given Climate Change, I have just about written December off as a viable ski month in the East. New England had some good days this December, so sometimes I am wrong, but the Mid-Atlantic has not seen good December skiing in a long time. Can anyone recall the last decent December in this area?

As JohnL says, February and better yet, March, have become the money months. Unfortunately for the ski business, there are no holiday weekends in March. Another problem with March is that usually the good March skiing in the Mid-Atlantic is confined to the West of the Allegheny Front resorts.
The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
December 30, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
johnfmh,
Not like you to be so depressing....CHEER UP! It only gets better with time. Skiing in December might be limited, but it sure beats the skiing in October!
Think SNOW and Happy New Year!
The Colonel \:\)
bawalker
December 30, 2007
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
Nothing beats skiing in Oct 04 of the great 'snowicane'. 6" of fresh powpow in Hardy co and I was happy. Well except when I had to drive in it and the 4wheel drive in my explorer was dead.
skier219
December 30, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
December of the 05-06 season was phenomenal. Wintergreen and Snowshoe both had 100% of their terrain open before Christmas. That's the best December I can remember in recent history. Unfortunately, January 06 brought a few weeks of warm weather that decimated the trail counts. It wasn't until late January that trail counts began to rebound. But it was a banner December and I think the resorts made a lot of money during the holiday week.
fishnski
December 30, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
We could see a jan thaw for half of that month, Thats the nature of weather south of the mason dixon line...Why Wait?..my point & it seems to gell with others is the fact that the ski areas have got to get it while the gettins getting ON...From mid nov on thru the season they need to be aggresive! Snowshoe got 65 percent of a whole lot of slopes open by mid december...The Valley is just as or more blessed with cold & snow--They need to take a page out of Sugar mtn,NC's handbook also!...THAT is the depressing point about the mid atlantic up at the valley! We hear that there just isn't any Buis to warrant the costs of Snowmaking...BS to the 3rd degree...put out a good product & you will see the Buis...they will never know till they try + One of the reasons that they get away with what they(Canaan/TL) do is the fact that the client base is so loyal!...Not to mention all the new Homeowners paying multi million dollar figures with the promise of great Skiing..I would sue because I Know better!...A ski Area like Whitetail would salivate at the thought of having the temps & Snow that the Valley has had since Mid Nov!!
fishnski
December 30, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
At 3700'(Canaan Valley) I have figured that after Nov 7th & thru till Dec they had an Ave High of 39 with an ave low of 27....Thats just nov Folks...don't believe the Neg Hype!
JohnL
December 30, 2007
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,516 posts
 Quote:
December of the 05-06 season was phenomenal.


Amen. The Wisp B-Day weekend in early December had mid-winter conditions and most of the mountain open.

IIRC, the winter before that (or maybe two winters?) had really good conditions at Seven Springs and other western areas. I remember that winter because I was in the process of buying new gear (old skis were unsafe) and missed some very nice early season days.

Been in the DC area since 1988. Overall, December (and even early January) has been very inconsistent. I don't think this has been a recent phenomenon.
fishnski
December 30, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Quote...This has not been a recent Phenom....My sentiments exactly!
Clay
December 30, 2007
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
Speaking of forecasts, Accuweather is calling for 7 inches in the valley between now and Wednesday. Weather.com is calling for 1-3" in the next 36 hours (couldn't find an accumulation forecast for longer than that). NWS doesn't really talk about accumulations other than an inch tomorrow and 'additional accumulations' over the next several days.

FWIW
tgd
December 30, 2007
Member since 07/15/2004 🔗
585 posts
Here at Tline as of 11:15pm Sunday evening, rain has turned to light snow, ground is brown, temps are hovering around 34. NWS calls for 1-3" tonight. Andy - counting on an optimistic forecast from you.

Tom
fishnski
December 31, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
there is a FOOT of snow on the way for the Alpps....This is not a joke....stay tuned!......MPC Is already snowcapped from last nite(WV Rocks Webcam)
Clay
December 31, 2007
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
Even Accuweather has upped it's forecast from 7.1 to 12.4 inches over the next 3 days.
skier219
December 31, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Hmm, so is this going to be the week to make a surgical strike for local powder? I wish CV and TL had more trails open with existing bases. I guess Wisp and Snowshoe will be better bets. In fact, right now, both the NAM and GFS have the bullseye on Snowshoe, with GFS predicting 10-12" by Thursday and the NAM predicting 18"+. (I don't trust the NAM).

Who's up for some powder hunting?
jimmy
December 31, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
 Originally Posted By: skier219
Hmm, so is this going to be the week to make a surgical strike for local powder? ............
Who's up for some powder hunting?



SCWVA
December 31, 2007
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,051 posts
 Originally Posted By: skier219
Hmm, .....

Who's up for some powder hunting?


Just got back from hunting powder in Utah and the freezer is full.
jimmy
December 31, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
AWWWW that's like fishing in a barrel or deer hunting with a car. Glad you had a good trip, Utah is always good but better with powder.
JimK - DCSki Columnist
December 31, 2007
Member since 01/14/2004 🔗
2,721 posts
 Originally Posted By: SCWVA
 Originally Posted By: skier219
Hmm, .....

Who's up for some powder hunting?


Just got back from hunting powder in Utah and the freezer is full.


Tell us more. Where'd you go and what did you like?
Did you get back in time to see the Skins do their thing?
johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
December 31, 2007
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,923 posts
The weather is indeed positive for next weekend and the crowds should be low.

One strange note. I just received my Allegheny Power bill for December (actual reading), and it was extremely low--one of the lowest I have ever received for this month. I used less than a 1/3 of the kwh that I used last December, and I haven't even switched to the new energy efficient light bulbs yet. ;\) This is a good indication of just how warm it has been since most of my electricity use goes into heating.
The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
December 31, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
skier219,
Well, I chose Seven Springs for this coming weekend. What are the models predicting for the Laurel Highlands?
The Colonel
crunchy
December 31, 2007
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
 Originally Posted By: jimmy
 Originally Posted By: skier219
Hmm, so is this going to be the week to make a surgical strike for local powder? ............
Who's up for some powder hunting?





me too! just decided to take wed/thur off, with the option to buy a friday also \:\) i know tline is pretty limited to White Lighting, but should be nice with some freshies. when i get bored with WL, ill go to WG and try and hone my non-existent xc/tele skills \:\)
David
December 31, 2007
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
 Originally Posted By: skier219

Who's up for some powder hunting?


So I'll meet ya at the Shoe on Thursday???
jimmy
December 31, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
NO $#!+ capn, mountaineer game in timbers wed if not sooner.....OOOOOOO tucker u still in town or have u moved west for thw winter????
skier219
December 31, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
David, we should definitely meet up -- I am still trying to figure out which day would be best. Thursday ought to be the best snow with temps in the low 20s. Friday will hit 35F or so, but Cupp Run is supposed to open that day, and I would like to ski that trail. Maybe this means both days are worth skiing! What's your schedule like on Friday, and could you ski both days?

Of course a two day trip complicates things, since I live so far away. Snowshoe is all booked up for lodging this week, but a good option is the Hermitage Hotel in Barstow, 45 minutes from Snowshoe. It's only about $65-70 a night. I'm starting to think a two day trip makes the most sense for me....

I'd prefer to ski Timberline, but I think the slow lift and limited trails would put a damper on the skiing compared to Snowshoe, at least this time around. We need to convince crunchy to head to Snowshoe too...
Clay
December 31, 2007
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
John,
I thought the same about mine, but then noticed that for some reason they went from billing every two months to every month. So it was about the same.
fishnski
December 31, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Please don't reply to JimK on this thread SCWVA...YOU MUDDA! \:\) ...Yeh..Like Jimmi said...its called fishing or hunting..if you always got somthing it would be called..CATCHIN!..We is HUNGRY here in the DC ski Area!!...But we got a feast on the way!
skier219
December 31, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
 Originally Posted By: The Colonel
skier219,
Well, I chose Seven Springs for this coming weekend. What are the models predicting for the Laurel Highlands?
The Colonel



Colonel, looks like 6-8" predicted for 7S.
David
December 31, 2007
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Craig, as far as I know I could prob. swing a 2 day trip (thurs and friday). I think it would be a good idea especially with Cupp opening on Friday. I am sure Crunchy would love to come down???
crunchy
December 31, 2007
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
 Originally Posted By: skier219
We need to convince crunchy to head to Snowshoe too...


i might be tempted to roll down there for day. maybe kimmie will be there too? \:\)
skier219
December 31, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
My weather software is showing the following snowfall prediction for SS (basin side):



That's 12" by Wednesday evening. Snow/water ratios are around 17, which means powder!
jimmy
December 31, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
and cupp run opens friday?
skier219
January 1, 2008
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
I have to wonder if they will move the opening up; Friday was the target based on snowmaking, but the natural snow ought to help. Thing is, that side of the mountain often gets a lot less snow than the basin side. You can notice the difference walking across the street to get from one side to the other. So they may indeed be depending on snowmaking to open Cupp.
fishnski
January 1, 2008
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
I was CKing out SS's Snow report this morn & there was mention that Cupp would be open by the end of next week..Hope someone misswrote ...Canaan Hts cked in with 1.9 inches of snow overnite & after a little lull in the action its picking back up! I am leaving Florida this morn & heading right smack up to this arctic blast..Thinking about heading to sugar mtn,nc in a few days...they will get a nice dump up there too. Zonal mild stuff till say the 10th & then maybe we can get winter back....
skier219
January 1, 2008
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Yeah, I saw that "typo?" too. Yesterday's report said Friday, and previous reports said end of this week. So either it's a typo or they are postponing it for some reason. I wish I knew someone I could contact out there for clarification.

EDIT: Their phone snow report for this morning says Cupp is opening Friday Jan 4.
fishnski
January 1, 2008
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
7PM update for Canaan Valley(fill in the blanks for your Fav area)..We have 5 inches from this storm so far with many more to come!...17 degrees means the fluffy type...Temps will be dropping further!..Thur Fri Or Sat should be the Bomb up in the Alpps from NC to BlueKnob,PA!
johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
January 1, 2008
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,923 posts
Dave's web site confirms this:

Jan 01 7PM - Currently light snow and 17F. 6hr snowfall 1.6 inches. Storm total snowfall 5.1 inches.

http://canaanweather.4t.com/
Roger Z
January 1, 2008
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
 Quote:
Zonal mild stuff till say the 10th & then maybe we can get winter back....


Yeah that's what I'm seeing out here- return to colder air starting on the night of the 7th. This may turn out to be a classic January thaw- one that only lasts a few days and then winter comes back. We'll see...
fishnski
January 2, 2008
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
11.4 inches storm total for 3715' Canaan Valley...SO FAR!..We got a good one going here! Add a 5 degree reading & we are talking COLD! Thats too cold for me just getting back from FL...I'm in my acclimation chamber back here in NORTH Carolina...getting ready for Sugar mt ,nc where it was below 0 as of 530 this morn...enjoy the powder while it lasts!
crunchy
January 2, 2008
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
yeah super light and fluffy! windy as usual tho, so its blowing and drifting. today is gonna be a storm rider day, but it should taper off by tommorrow morning, so thurs/fri should be super sweet. \:\)
snowglobe
January 2, 2008
Member since 03/12/2007 🔗
150 posts
Those who are heading to the shoe: Cupp run will open on Saturday not Friday, according to the latest update from thier site this morning.
lbotta - DCSki Supporter
January 2, 2008
Member since 10/18/1999 🔗
1,527 posts
I'll be there tomorrow (Thurs) evening, and awaiting its opening at the entrance to Cupp on Sat AM....
Taylormatt
January 2, 2008
Member since 12/3/2004 🔗
339 posts
FACE SHOTS at 7S this morning and well into late morning if you knew where to look. 11" fell overnight and it snowed pretty good until about 1PM. Many, many places were thigh deep followed by chowder bumps for the afternoon. Today was a great day not to work my real job. Yes Sam, I was on my skinny skis.
SpringsRegular
January 3, 2008
Member since 10/14/2004 🔗
153 posts
 Originally Posted By: Taylormatt
FACE SHOTS at 7S this morning and well into late morning if you knew where to look. 11" fell overnight and it snowed pretty good until about 1PM. Many, many places were thigh deep followed by chowder bumps for the afternoon. Today was a great day not to work my real job. Yes Sam, I was on my skinny skis.


I hate you!
Laurel Hill Crazie - DCSki Supporter
January 3, 2008
Member since 08/16/2004 🔗
1,855 posts
Hate you too! Did they drop ropes every where, were all the trails open? What about glade? Powder makes all things new again.
Taylormatt
January 3, 2008
Member since 12/3/2004 🔗
339 posts
No new ropes dropped yet. They were making snow everywhere...you know, making hay while the sun shines thing.

My guess is nearly everything gets groomed and opens tomorrow. The only thing not getting snow making was Corkscrew.

What's left of Alpine glades was poached <EG>, Yak Yak and Avy trees were excellent. Couldn't get over to Turtleclaw glades because that would have been blatant poaching of closed terrain to even reach it...in my coat with a lesson...not good. Funner than Gunnar was deep and excellent.

Seriously considered poaching the new <cough> glades in gunnar lift line, but the rangers were at the bottom yanking tickets from those who did.
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