So far so good for Thanksgiving!
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fishnski
November 14, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Looks like the temps will be right for the "Real" Snowmaking to start Thur nite thru at least tue nite & possibly on thru the holidays. There will be some Nat snow flying around also. I just booked a 4 nite 3 day ski pkg at Snowshoe for 2 Adults that only cost me $483 tax included...How could you head out west for that?
Snowmakers
November 14, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Nice deal.


As of current schedule, I will be at the shoe for opening day. Temps do look very good, with Possible round-the-clock Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. That would ensure opening, as well as great conditions. Temps for opening day should be in the upper 30's.

I will also be there Friday. Hoping they have the park open then.
johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
November 15, 2006
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,923 posts
Quote:

Looks like the temps will be right for the "Real" Snowmaking to start Thur nite thru at least tue nite & possibly on thru the holidays. There will be some Nat snow flying around also. I just booked a 4 nite 3 day ski pkg at Snowshoe for 2 Adults that only cost me $483 tax included...How could you head out west for that?




You can't beat that, especially since Thanksgiving is typically the worst period of the year to fly, but then again, CO is getting some significant natural snow right now.... Anyone headed west?
BushwackerinPA
November 15, 2006
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
Quote:

Quote:

Looks like the temps will be right for the "Real" Snowmaking to start Thur nite thru at least tue nite & possibly on thru the holidays. There will be some Nat snow flying around also. I just booked a 4 nite 3 day ski pkg at Snowshoe for 2 Adults that only cost me $483 tax included...How could you head out west for that?




You can't beat that, especially since Thanksgiving is typically the worst period of the year to fly, but then again, CO is getting some significant natural snow right now.... Anyone headed west?




right after t-day for the whole year
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Roger Z
November 15, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
I headed west last June John. Unfortunately I ran out of gas in KC and had to stick around a while...
kennedy
November 15, 2006
Member since 12/8/2001 🔗
792 posts
Got a text message this morning from skiutah. 10" at The Canyons for a base depth of 26", 8" at Deer Valley for a base depth of 22" and 4" at Brighton for a base depth of 18"

Thats the first text of the year and it made me feel warm and fuzzy inside.
BushwackerinPA
November 15, 2006
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
Brighton opened today. Park City, Solitude Friday Snowbird, Alta, and the Canyons Saturday. Utah (lift served) season has begun!!
Mountain Masher
November 16, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
It's more like "So far so BAD for Thanksgiving!" Based on the most recent weather forecasts, the Shoe is going to have a hard time putting a significant base down by Thanksgiving. Plus, whatever base that they've already made has probably washed away by now. The same El Nino Jet Stream pattern that's bringing lots of storms to the Pacific North-West and snow to the mountains of Utah, is also keeping the really cold Canadian air from pushing down into the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully, the current pattern of the Jet Stream will shift as we head into Winter, particularly if the El Nino doesn't strengthen and stays within a moderate range.
Roger Z
November 16, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
The best forecast for DC, I've discovered, is to take whatever the weather here is in KC and add two days to it. Right now it's butt-cold. Even had a forecast of snow flurries yesterday afternoon. The cooldown should be hitting DC in about 24-36 hours, probably with temps in the 20s overnight in the northern suburbs.

Anyone ever want to know what the weather will be like in DC 2-3 days from now, just PM me...
JohnL
November 16, 2006
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,516 posts
Quote:

Anyone ever want to know what the weather will be like in DC 2-3 days from now, just PM me...




Well for starters, did you have tornados in KC 2-3 days ago?
kennedy
November 16, 2006
Member since 12/8/2001 🔗
792 posts
Yeah it looks like temps are going to dip pretty low from this weekend on. The only question I have though is if it matters if the ground is saturated, i.e. does it cause the snow to melt off?
Mountain Masher
November 16, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
The Shoe will have to start snowmaking on a wet and WARM ground, which is far from ideal. Furthermore, the temps are going to be normal to slightly above normal at the Shoe over the next 10 days or so. This means that there will be periods when around-the-clock snowmaking will not be possible.
fishnski
November 16, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
The Shoe will be just fine! I plan on having a glorious day skiing on Turkey day!.They will have Natural snow tonite & tomorrow into the day. Then the temps will drop to the upper teens to the upper 20's as far as the eye can see. There will be a disturbance that drops down (Spike of energy from the nasty storm that just pulled up & out of the mid atl) into the highlands that will add some more natural snow to go with the manmade. This event starts late Sat into Mon. A little Icing for the opening Festivities!...Mountain Mash will never make it skiing this year because...Of course it won't be worth it
Mountain Masher
November 16, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Dream on Fishnski! Unless the weather forecasts are wrong, there will either be NO skiing or VERY LIMITED skiing at the Shoe for Thanksgiving. So let's hope that the forecasts are wrong. At any rate, I'll be anxious to hear how the skiing (or lack of skiing) turns out.
Clay
November 16, 2006
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
Quote:

Unless the weather forecasts are wrong




Well THAT never happens (I mean when's the last time the weather forecast was wrong? ). Of course, it's never wrong when you WANT it to be wrong

Clay
Murphy
November 16, 2006
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
Not sure what forecast you're looking at but it looks like ideal snowmaking conditions from now until Thanksgiving. Of course the skiing will be limited. It is only November but they'll be open.
Mountain Masher
November 16, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
The Shoe will be able to make a fair amount of snow between now and Thanksgiving. However, the snowmaking conditions will be far from ideal much of the time.
snosnugums
November 16, 2006
Member since 04/10/2006 🔗
126 posts
It is amazing what a difference elevation makes. Seven Springs appears to have some snow making oppurtunities coming up. But the Snowshoe forcast appears to present some pretty good snow making conditions. If any of you folks will be there during the Thanksgiving holiday, it is looking good for having at least some terrain opening. A nice big fat turkey, a crackling fire and some November tracks. It doesn't get much better than that!!
tromano
November 16, 2006
Member since 12/19/2002 🔗
998 posts
If you look at the locatiosn reporting the conditions, I dont think they are very representative of the conditions at those resorts. The listing for Champion PA is reported at Latrobe. What is that?
Scott - DCSki Editor
November 16, 2006
Member since 10/10/1999 🔗
1,139 posts
Unfortunately, the National Weather Service doesn't always have an ideal reporting station near mountain resorts. I am polling the NWS based on the resort locations, and NWS/NOAA provides the nearest reporting station for current conditions. These will *usually* be pretty close. They are generally located at nearby airports.

The weather forecasts are generated independently from the current conditions (which are actually read off of weather instruments at the reporting stations). The forecasts are "point" forecasts based on latitude/longitude, and I believe NOAA is taking elevation into consideration. So the forecasts should be *pretty* accurate. As accurate as weather forecasts can be, I suppose. There will undoubtedly be times when the current conditions and forecasts are comically wrong.

Most of the local resorts rely on the same NOAA data, although many have weather stations on the mountain. (Ones with automated snowmaking systems usually have multiple sensors located up and down the vertical, to optimize the snowmaking mix for all the different weather "microclimates" found from the top of the mountain to the bottom. If only I could grab that data directly!)
Roy
November 17, 2006
Member since 01/11/2000 🔗
609 posts
Starting tomorrow night, are lows are supposed to be down to the mid to upper-30's. It should be dropping below freezing at the shoe.
Snowmakers
November 17, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
The official NWS 7-day forecast for Snowshoe, WV at elevation 4444ft.Snowmaking in bold.

Today: Periods of snow before 1pm, then freezing drizzle likely. High near 28. Breezy, with a northwest wind between 18 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind between 14 and 17 mph becoming calm.


Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 38. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 34. Northwest wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 3pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.


Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.







I do think they could pull it off Sunday, with a high of 34. I have seen snowmaking up to 41, and have made snow myself at 38.
gizmosnow
November 17, 2006
Member since 10/6/2005 🔗
269 posts

Quote:

I do think they could pull it off Sunday, with a high of 34. I have seen snowmaking up to 41, and have made snow myself at 38.




Speaking of which...has anyone ever heard of SnowMagic - a Japanese Co. that owns a small (Tenney) mountain in NH. They claim they can make snow in 60F.
Roger Z
November 17, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Yeah, I go to NOAA for weather info and right now their forecasts for western MD into early next week are 10-15 degrees cooler than Alta! Chance of snow Monday. The KC forecast is indicating a warm-up on or shortly after T-Day, though. That said, it should be a good start to the year: fresh snow and mild temps ain't all bad!
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Murphy
November 17, 2006
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
Quote:

The KC forecast is indicating a warm-up on or shortly after T-Day, though. That said, it should be a good start to the year: fresh snow and mild temps ain't all bad!




Silence! We don't want to here that kind of talk. Maybe, if we're lucky, a few other resorts might take advantage of the upcoming cold snap to make snow. I'm betting a few more of the NC resorts will. They got about an inch of the real stuff last night.
kennedy
November 17, 2006
Member since 12/8/2001 🔗
792 posts
I don't know the company or mountain you're thinking of but I have heard of the system. I think Killington used a system similar once to get a trail open early just to say they could. If I'm not mistake, and I could well be, the snow is made in an enclosed controlled environment rather than using snow guns. This controlled environent doesn't have to be a huge warehouse or anything, In fact from what I saw it was a reasonably portable unit i.e. you could load it on the back of a truck. Once you produce enough snow in the unit you use large diameter pipe to spread it. It's works well for small amounts but anything more than a trail or two and it's ineffective.
Roger Z
November 17, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Tenney's a local ski hill in NH. Nice place, if I've heard correctly. Here's an article about their 60 degree snowmaking capabilities:

http://www.firstchairmag.com/features/100403.html

From the pictures, it doesn't look like they're going to be doing any top to bottom skiing with it anytime soon. They installed the system probably three years ago but I heard nothing about it after that season. Maybe they got rid of it. I was hoping the snowmaking system would help me open that cross country ski resort in Panama City I've long dreamed about: Chip Chase meets Jimmy Buffett. Could call it MargaritaGrass or something. Oh well.

Murphy: 70 in Blacksburg next week!
Scott - DCSki Editor
November 17, 2006
Member since 10/10/1999 🔗
1,139 posts
Quote:


Quote:

I do think they could pull it off Sunday, with a high of 34. I have seen snowmaking up to 41, and have made snow myself at 38.




Speaking of which...has anyone ever heard of SnowMagic - a Japanese Co. that owns a small (Tenney) mountain in NH. They claim they can make snow in 60F.




DCSki wrote a story about Tenney Mountain in July, 2003:

http://www.dcski.com/articles/view_article.php?article_id=367

The system works, but it doesn't scale very well. At this time it's really only suitable for covering a small slope or a tubing run -- it certainly can't compete with all-out, full-mountain snowmaking. 'Course, the latter isn't an option in July.
BushwackerinPA
November 17, 2006
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
so whos is going to blow tonight!?
fishnski
November 17, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Wrong thread...Since your here...its YO MAMMA
Roy
November 18, 2006
Member since 01/11/2000 🔗
609 posts
I went up to Tenney about 2 years ago in October. At the time, they were opening for weekends and Wednesdays. Well it just so happened that the Wednesday I went, they decided to close. I was also visiting friends so I got to tour NH and do some hiking (and see the Old Man on the Hill before he fell down).

I talked to a person at the resort. He said they just make enough to open up some terrain park features (rails and boxes mainly, no half pipes or jumps). The entire vertical is only about 60-100 feet.

Also, if I'm not badly mistaken, the resort is owned by 2 brothers from the Warren Miller films in the 90's. (and my brain is not working right now because I can't remember their names). But if you watched those films, you will know who they are. My brain is stuck on Doug Coombs but I know that's not right.
fishnski
November 18, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Well I Have NEVER!! I cannot believe someone would have the Snowballs to hijack this thread from "what is in store weather wise for the T-Giving in the Mid ATL"...to a foriegn ski area in NH To get back on track....Looks like some colder air & maybe 4 to 6 inches of snow for Snowshoe(+Highest elevations of WV)+++ As much Snow as a resort like SS can make almost round the clock!! Thursday will be THE DAY! after that the temps rise & I am not sure if the snowguns will be on after thur night....But next week after T-Giving look "COOL". I'll be back to stocking up on fish filet's(& the last of the crabs) by then...Hope its good for whoever wants it good!...I forgot this..they made snow all last nite + there was a little Light snow/frizzel kind of stuff...Did anybody ck out Timberlines web cam this morn? All the picnic tables & rooftops were white but the ground only had splotches of white untill you went half way up the mtn where the Mtn top was Frosty White!
Mountain Masher
November 19, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I was just checking the weather forecast for the Shoe and it doesn't look too hot (no pun intended) for several days of around-the-clock snowmaking. What I find interesting about the weather forecasts over the past couple of years, is the forecasts continually over-shoot how cold it's going to get. I believe that this is due to the fact that the weather forecasting computer models are not yet fully calibrated to account for the background effects of Global Warming. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the ski slope conditions are like at the Shoe for Thanksgiving.
Murphy
November 19, 2006
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
What are you talking about? The forecast Snowmaker posted couldn't have been much better. Friday it forecasted a high of 28 and it hit 29 (and that was at 8am). Saturday it forecasted a high of 38 and it hit 36. Pretty good I'd say. It predicted up to an inch of snow, they only got a trace.

I don't have real time data for SS but it's 30 degrees with light snow according to the Dolly Sods camera. Assuming that's similar to SS, it agrees with todays forecast of low 30's with afternoon snow showers. I'd guess it's a little colder based on Ibotta's report.
Snowmakers
November 19, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
One thing that does baffle me is to why Snowshoe wont open Wednesday. The temps wednesday night will bode only for marginal, if any snowmaking conditions. The only reason I can think of for holding off an extra day is to let the snow 'drain' (set up) and to groom it.


fishnski
November 19, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Maybe its a manpower thing..or not enough folks at the resort yet. I made that 4 to 6 Predict last eve & felt at the time that 4 inches for the highest elevations was a good bet(Based on every bit of info I can get a hold of from umteen sources) The 2 extra inches was that 2nd White russian talking!! If any of you weather watchers noticed today , a nice chunk of moisture slid just south & west of SS. With Ibotta's 1st hand report of 27 degrees at 1pm at the shoe,there could have been an inch or 2 allready on the ground by now if it had moved north a little. Like Murph said the main event has started. At 430 the rooftops & picnic tables are turning white at Timberline...You still at the Shoe Ibotta? Whats going on? at 5pm the pointy knob station at 3700' is reporting 28 degrees. at 4:30 the dolly sods(same elevation) cam is reporting 30...I think even though the temp could have dropped 2 degrees in a half hour I feel that the temp guage is off by 1 degree. It reads 1 degree too warm.on any given time period it reads warmer than the pointy knob sta...maybe they are both a little off. The Charleston nws is still sayin 3 to 4 for the higher elevations of WV. & places like Beech mtn,Nc could see 3 to 5. Ck out their webcam on Highcountrywebcams.com they are beating everybody to the punch!
Mountain Masher
November 19, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I suspect the reason why the Shoe isn't planning on opening for skiing on Wed. is that the snow base is going to be soooooo marginal that they don't want it to get skied-out before the Thanksgiving crowd gets a chance to give it a go.
Mountain Masher
November 19, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Murph, if you consider what the weather forecasts were predicting (for the current period) about a week ago, I'd say that they far over-shot how cold it was going to get. The weather right now isn't nearly as cold as what had been predicted even 5 days ago!
Snowmakers
November 19, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
...And what do you suggest then?
langleyskier
November 19, 2006
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Mountain masher you that is horribly untrue. A forecast is not based on climatology or anything that has to do with global warming. It is based of daily guidance from models and other data (as i assume you already know). Can you for once have a post that does not have to do with global warming or problems with the environment? The forecasts for snowshoe are for the most part fairly accurate (as others have already stated), not a cold bias due to global warming.
Mountain Masher
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Langleyskiier, you're the one who's "horribly" wrong! The computer models that are used for weather forecasts are extremely complex and sophisticated and are starting to take into account the various effects of Global Warming, including it's impact on the Northern branch of the Jet Stream. You might want to learn a few facts before you go off trying to tear down what I've posted. By the way, your spelling is also "horribly" wrong. The proper spelling for "skiier" is skier. One would think that you would have gotten the spelling of skier correct since it's contained in your DCSki Username.
Snowmakers
November 20, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
If hes wrong for 'tearing down' what you posted, Why dont you back up and prove what you posted?
Mountain Masher
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Give me a break Snowmakers! Sure, I could easily back up everything that I've posted, but it would cover page after page of material and have lots of references, which simply isn't practical for this forum. If you don't want to believe my posts, so be it. By the way, can I presume that it's your policy to ask for back-up information from every DCSki member who submits a post that contains things you question or disagree with?
kwillg6
November 20, 2006
Member since 01/18/2005 🔗
2,030 posts
Hey folks, give us a break! It's nothing to get personal about. If you have frequented the shoe, the valley, and other destinations, you can pretty much correctly guess the weather, temps, and conditions depending upon the conditions in Pittsburgh and the wind direction and velocity. That's all I need in determining the road conditions for my drive, and the ensuing ski conditions for the next morning. (as simple as it sounds).
Experience is the best forcast factor and it works better than any weather service that I know of.
Roger Z
November 20, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Well I for one found the weather forecasts deadly accurate before all this global warming. I used to be able to set my clock by 'em. "Hmmmm... weatherman said it would be 61 degrees at three o'clock two weeks from today, I'll have to check my watch when it hits 61 then to make sure it's still on time." Then global warming came along and now those darn weather forecasts have just become so untrustworthy! I've resorted to counting hairs on the backs of wooly catepillars to get the forecast two days from now. It's the only way.

Also due to global warming we've run out of food here in Kansas City and have commenced to eating the dead. But you'd probably rather not hear about that...
warren
November 20, 2006
Member since 07/31/2003 🔗
485 posts
Quote:

and have commenced to eating the dead.



Roger,
Ummmm..... I think that's too much information

-Warren-
langleyskier
November 20, 2006
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
MM i created this account 3 years ago and noticed a few days after that it was misspelled. To tell you the truth i could really care less and i see no reason for you to poke fun at it simply because i disagree with your post. And no i am not just going to take your word for what you have posted just as you are not going to take mine. Find me (and all of us here) some tangible NON BIASED (not from greenpeace) proof for your post and i will happily agree with you. If you are correct that would be a major discovery because that could have enormous effects on forecasting not just for shoe but everywhere. But until then please do not rip on others who are questioning your unsupported and often very biased posts.
Mountain Masher
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Well, here's an excellent example of what I'm talking about in terms of the weather forecasts over-shooting how cold it's going to get (and stay). As of my typing this post (12:19 PM), it's 34 degrees at the Shoe even though the forecast had called for a high of only 28 degrees! The forecast was off by a whopping 6 degrees and the high might rise an additional degree or two by later this afternoon! Something is going on here with a Global Warming component to it.
DWW
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/11/2004 🔗
144 posts
According to Ibotta's (I think) live reading in person with his gizmo - the actual temp is 6 degrees lower than the weather services, which depending on the service vary significantly between themselves, and aren't reading from the mountain top anyway.

There's a very smart energy analyst in my office that claims global warming peaked in 1998 and that the real concern is cooling and the resultant energy crisis that will follow. Personally, the things that stick out in my mind over the last number of years are the consistent early cold Oct/Nov/Decs and the excellent March skiing. Wasn't last December the coldest in history? How does that reconcile with global warming?
Mountain Masher
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
langelyskiier, like all freedom loving Americans, I welcome thoughts and comments that differ from my opinions. But, at the same time, I often attempt to defend my positions. When you called my post "horribly untrue", I felt it was a pretty strong blanket statement and tried to point out that you probably don't have enough knowledge at present to dispute my post. And, as for me pointing out the incorrect spelling contained in your username, that was just a bit of light-hearted humor. There is no incorrect spelling for names. Names are merely identifiers, and the more unique the better.
snowsmith - DCSki Supporter
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/15/2004 🔗
1,359 posts
You think you have it bad in KC, global warming has killed all the crabs in the Chesapeake, so we have resorted to eating steamed wooly bear catipillars. They're not bad with a little Old Bay on them, though and you can predict the weather while eating.
Roger Z
November 20, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Well we had a forecasted low of 29 out here and it was 25 this morning. So what's your point?

Snowsmith thanks for the advice on Wooly Catepillars. If there's any left, I'll be sure to throw some Ol' Bay on 'em!
Murphy
November 20, 2006
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
Quote:

Quote:

and have commenced to eating the dead.



Roger,
Ummmm..... I think that's too much information

-Warren-




It took you until that statement to realize he was offering too much information? I stopped reading after he started talking about his wooly catepillar
Mountain Masher
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I was going with the current temp reading for the Shoe (provided on DCSki and on weather.com) and comparing that statistic with the predicted highs from the same sources. Although, I'm not sure where the current reading (for Snowshoe) on DCSki originates from, it doesn't really matter, because we're talking about the differential between the predicted high versus the actual high for a given location, which, at the very least, is close to Snowshoe. And, as I've stated in a previous post, the actual high temp on Nov. 20 was 34 while the predicted high was only 28.

As for your thoughts on Global Warming....world-wide, last year was the warmest on record. And, October 2006 was the 4th warmest Oct. on record (when measured world-wide), although October was a rather cool month for the Eastern US. If the planet has started to cool down since 1998, there's not yet any evidence of it. But, never-the-less, I hear what you're saying, and some cooling could be around the corner. Recently, a highly qualified Russian team of scientists concluded that Global Warming is at or near a peak and we're likely to see significant cooling within the next decade or so. Needless to say, I'm rooting for that Russian scientific team!
Murphy
November 20, 2006
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
As Scott has said in other posts about the weather, the real time data come from Hot Springs, VA but the forecast is for the summit of Snowshoe. There is no readily available realtime data for Snowshoe. They shouldn't agree.
DWW
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/11/2004 🔗
144 posts
Nature has a way of working itself out - and defying man. Not trading in my skis for a surfboard quite yet.
Mountain Masher
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
OK, thanks for the info. Murphy. Hot Springs VA is a ways from the Shoe and much lower in elevation, so that would explain much of the difference between the forecast and actual temp that was shown.
fishnski
November 20, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Mr Mash, You are so COOL! Wait a minute..I didn't mean to call you a name...Looks like with 2 lifts & 6 or so runs at the
Shoe for opening day it could get crowded. If its not, the 1st one I'm going to thank is the Masher!!
Scott - DCSki Editor
November 20, 2006
Member since 10/10/1999 🔗
1,139 posts
Quote:

OK, thanks for the info. Murphy. Hot Springs VA is a ways from the Shoe and much lower in elevation, so that would explain much of the difference between the forecast and actual temp that was shown.




Hot Springs, VA is the closest spot the National Weather Service has with monitoring equipment for reporting conditions. It's not ideal, but I checked with Snowshoe and they use the same data source as part of their modeling. The NWS/NOAA *forecasts* (as opposed to current conditions) are point forecasts and try to take elevation and exact latitude/longitude into consideration. Since the observed conditions come right off of instruments, there's no adjustments made -- but again, the instruments aren't located at the resorts and can sometimes be far away. In general, it will be colder at Snowshoe than the readings at Hot Springs indicate (although those readings are certainly closer than, say, BWI Airport!) That's why I'm careful to say "conditions near...", and when you drill down to the main DCSki Weather page, it will show exactly where the conditions were observed (e.g., Hagerstown/Washington County Regional Airport for Whitetail, etc.)

Also note that the current conditions reported on DCSki are on a delay. That delay can be anywhere from 20 minutes to hours. I only ping the NOAA servers a couple times an hour as a good "netizen," and their server doesn't always reflect the latest data, either -- there can be problems uploading data, etc. Be sure to check the "As of hh:mm" disclaimer that I show to know the exact time the conditions were observed. By all means, please do *not* use the weather data reported on DCSki to make any conclusions about global warming! It is merely one of many tools you can use to help plan your trips and know what's going on, but it's not a perfect tool and should be used in combination with other sources, such as Lou stepping outside and measuring the temperature!
GGNagy
November 21, 2006
Member since 01/5/2006 🔗
450 posts
Quote:

Also due to global warming we've run out of food here in Kansas City and have commenced to eating the dead. But you'd probably rather not hear about that...




Dead pigs? Dead cows? Dead chickens?
fishnski
November 21, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Mr Mash buddy, There has been snow in georgia, north & south carolina..& I ain't talkin mtns,I'm talkin the coast! Heck, it doesn't hardly ever snow at Charleston,Sc but today they had the earliest recorded snow EVER!!There has been a few of those "earliest evers" so far this winter....Send you a postcard from the Shoe!!
The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
November 21, 2006
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
Mr. Fishnski,
Be sure to post some pictures.
Happy Thanksgiving!
The Colonel
fishnski
November 21, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Colonel, It never snowed down here in Wilmington but felt like it could have! All my info came from the weather channel...they had some nice video...wait a minute..your talking about the Shoe trip...DUHHH I have to get some sleep!..Happy T-Giving to you sir!
Snowmakers
November 21, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
The snow wasnt forecasted. Global Cooling.
Mountain Masher
November 22, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Hey, that Southern snow sounds really wild! Because this is an El Nino Fall and Winter, the chance of unusual weather events is heightened, particulary in the South East. Speaking of snow, hopefully, there will be lots of that white stuff at the Shoe! Fortunately, it's cold and has been that way over the past 48 hours, so the Shoe should manage to get a base down before the weather warms up.
SCWVA
November 22, 2006
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,051 posts
Hey MM,

Very positive post. Keep it up.

I saw this story of crackuweather. No pictures thou.

Rare Southeast SnowUpdated: Wednesday, November 22, 2006 8:21 AMA rare weather event occurred on Tuesday as snow and sleet mixed with rainfall across parts of the Southeast. Normally, you would expect to hear about November snowfall in Augusta, Maine; however, this was not the case on Tuesday, as areas near Augusta, Ga.., had the white wintry weather. In Georgia, Millen recorded up to 2 inches of snow, while an inch whitened Lawton, Sylvania and Butts. In South Carolina, Charleston got its earliest snowfall of the season and recorded its first-ever thunder snow at the airport. Snow even appeared in Florida, as light snow mixed with light rain and drizzle as far south as the county that houses Orlando; warm surface temperatures, however, keep the snow from accumulating. While the snow was a sight to see, warming temperatures Friday and into the weekend will make the winter's early appearance a faint memory.
Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker. AccuWeather.com Premium
Get expert analysis from senior meteorologists Henry Margusity and Joe Lundberg, plus expanded forecast and radar features.

Accuweather.com
Murphy
November 22, 2006
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
2" of snow in Georgia in November! That's pretty amazing. At the same time, Boston just had their first freeze last night, the same night that Baton Rouge, LA (my former home) had their first freeze. Crazy!
powdertotheppl
November 22, 2006
Member since 11/16/2006 🔗
3 posts
Snowshoe's homepage now says 3 lifts, 3 runs
I hope this is an error and they are sticking to the 6 trails they originally planned to have open tomorrow.
Does anyone have any insight on this?
anon
November 22, 2006
Member since 11/17/2006 🔗
14 posts
I believe nothing has changed, just semantics. The weather report that was revised this morning still lists the same 6 trails as before, but instead of saying they have 6 trails open they are just calling it 3 runs, which is really more accurate I think, as 6 trails is misleading IMHO.
Roger Z
November 22, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
My uncle was graduating from OSI training in Brunswick, GA yesterday, and my dad lives in Orlando. I wonder if they both saw snow... the dream of a cross country ski resort in Panama City- Margarita-Grass- grows!
ndskier
November 22, 2006
Member since 12/11/2003 🔗
56 posts
The website actually says that only Skidder, Heisler Way, and lower whistlepunk will be in operation tomorrow. I would like ot think that with 3+ days of snowmaking they could pull out a better opening than that.....but i guess we'll take what we can get. hope they have spruce glades, maybe the ballhooter lift by the weekend but i don't think its likely with the temps forecasted as is.
anon
November 22, 2006
Member since 11/17/2006 🔗
14 posts
I take that back, they re-revised the weather report and it now says just Skidder, Heisler Way and Lower Whistlepunk will be open, so only 3 runs/trails/whatever indeed.. Sad.
Mountain Masher
November 22, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Well, well......it looks like my initial prediction (that there would either be NO skiing or VERY LIMITED skiing at the Shoe for Thanksgiving) is turning out to be correct. Needless to say, I'm glad that the conditions lean towards the more optimistic end of my prediction; that is, there's going to be some skiing at the Shoe tomorrow. A day on the snow at the Shoe (in good old WVA) is almost heaven! Lets hope that enough base has been put down (on the slopes that are open) to allow for continuous skiing during the upcoming mild spell.
JR
November 22, 2006
Member since 01/1/2003 🔗
276 posts
Um, anyone else notice that they're running 3 trails serviced by 3 chairs, 2 chairs of which can't be accessed by any of those trails? Seems like a mistake to me. Besides, where's lower Whistlepunk anyway?
Snowmakers
November 22, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Quote:

Um, anyone else notice that they're running 3 trails serviced by 3 chairs, 2 chairs of which can't be accessed by any of those trails? Seems like a mistake to me. Besides, where's lower Whistlepunk anyway?




Thats what im wondering. I went there 13 times last year, and cant even remember the trail setup.
teleman
November 22, 2006
Member since 07/8/2005 🔗
145 posts
I suspect it is a mistake. I don't think lower Whistlepunk exists. Whistlepunk traverses across the top of the mountain. The other trails listed are also at the top. And you can't get to the bottom with those three trails.

Or it could be intentional so Mountain Masher can feel better about himself.

Either way I will be there Friday.
Snowmakers
November 22, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Quote:

I suspect it is a mistake. I don't think lower Whistlepunk exists. Whistlepunk traverses across the top of the mountain. The other trails listed are also at the top. And you can't get to the bottom with those three trails.

Or it could be intentional so Mountain Masher can feel better about himself.

Either way I will be there Friday.





As will I. Me and 5 friends, that is.

Yeah, the trail listing doesnt sound right at all. As you said, you cand get to the bottom with those trails. Something has to be up.

If I remember right, Last year, Spruce Glades, Skidder, Crosscut, Gandy Dancer, Helsier (sp?) Way, and lower Powder Monkey.

I wouldnt mind that again.
ndskier
November 22, 2006
Member since 12/11/2003 🔗
56 posts
I would like to think it is a mistake, but why would snowshoe have put up on their website all week that they were going to have 6 trails, and then the day before opening reduce it to 3 if it were not true. They obviously want as many people there as they can. Those trails that they report do not form a top to bottom run as was posted earlier, but i still dont see why they would have downgraded the trail count in the snow report. only thing i could think of was that they were trying to put some preliminary features in the spruce glades terrain park. if they can get some blues opened by saturday....i'll probably make it out for a bit. keep your fingers crossed.
skier219
November 22, 2006
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
I think it's definitely a typo of some sorts. The Skidder trail/lift combo is the only one I believe for sure. The others don't make sense at all. I have a feeling they made a soup of the ski report when editing the previous three-chair six-trail text. Hopefully it will be straightened out.

FWIW, the previous ski report didn't make perfect sense either -- seemed like there were a couple dead-end trails!
Snowmakers
November 22, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Guess we'll find out in the morning
Snowmakers
November 22, 2006
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Ouch, I just looked at a radar.


Looks like morning conditions will either be icy, or wet (depending on temp)- for whaichever trails are open.
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