First Snow... gotta inside line?
October 29, 2008
89 posts
20 users
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I've been reading all the hype on a cold snowy winter...can't get too excited...yet. Was wondering if anybody out there cares to pick :
A. Date of first snow in the DC area (measureable)
B. Date of first snow in the WV Alps (measurable)
C. Biggest and deepest (date)
It'll be interesting to see what folks guess at. Maybe the closest to the date could get a DC Ski pin. What about it Scott?
The Alpps could see some flurries on the 2nd of Oct with a chance trace way up high...Another shot on the 10th to the 11th..The ground will be cooler for the 2nd front...HMMmmmm ...I'll say a trace on Oct 11th..a couple of inches on Mount Porte Crayon!!
Sounds like a worthy use of a DCSki pin. I'm willing to contribute one (postage, even!)
the first measurable snow in the dc area will be dec 6.
Hmm.. Am I eligible to compete? I certainly don't need any more DCSki pins.
I predict the first measurable snow in the D.C. area will be on November 24.
Define "DC Area." Are we talking inside the Beltway? McCounty, FxCounty, PGCounty? Frederick? Winchester?
DC area...I have no idea...Never even been there...So im gonna say Dec. 12.
WV alps...Oct 29.
Biggest and Deepest...Feb 24 CV gets over 20 inches
All of these are very scientific dates...I used the most up to date weather tracking equipment money could buy...Then i completely ignored it because the weather ppl never get it right!!!!
DC area. Let's say Dulles. It's NOAA monitored. As for the Alps, why not use Dave's local weather off the White Grass web page? It's as accurate and official as you can get in them parts.
WV Alpps -- first measurable 10/21
DC -- Dulles -- first measurable 12/6
Deepest storm -- WV Alpps -- 24 inches over a three day period around 12/15
P.S. The leaves up here have made great strides the last few days. There will be some decent color up here this weekend for the Leaf Peepers Festival.
Hardy County - Including Wardensville, Baker, Mathias, or Moorefield, first dusting will be Dec 3.
Can you please post all the cold snowy winter hype?
Jeremy, part of the guesstimate is doing the research such as almanac, NOAA, wooly bears, acorns, nuts, etc..... then u guess.
I'm still counting the number of acorns per square foot and correlating that to past the year's hickory nut harvest. Almost forgot! The percentage of body fat on gray squirrels. THATS a big one you can't overlook.
Jeremy, part of the guesstimate is doing the research such as almanac, NOAA, wooly bears, acorns, nuts, etc..... then u guess.
I'm still counting the number of acorns per square foot and correlating that to past the year's hickory nut harvest. Almost forgot! The percentage of body fat on gray squirrels. THATS a big one you can't overlook.
- don't forget to factor in the effect of the number of Pirates on Global Average Temperature as in here:
From This Site 
The percentage of body fat on gray squirrels. THATS a big one you can't overlook.
Kwill, I am not sure how the gray squirrels are doing this year but I do know that the reds are showing signs of a pretty intense winter...
I think we're gonna see a spike in global pirates this fall, leading to a first snow Nov 24-28 at Dulles. I'll say Nov 24 just to be gutsy. Measurable. Y'all are overdue for an early snowfall.
ahhhhh.... right Crush. Forgot about the global pirate factor. One question though. Which are more dominant, red or gray squirrels and to what extent do they influence the temperature/global pirate correlation?
Hey! I don't know if many remember, but back in 79, the mountains of VA and WV got a major snow on Oct 10. I'm not predicting that again, but it can happen early. My prediction will be forthcoming soon (as soon as I count the number of spiders/webs I get in my face cutting grass tomorrow).
.. arrrr matey the halyards be raised with a stiff port beam reach ! giddy goat's horns step lively there's snow in the blow !
But remember Kwill...we didn't have Global warming in 79..
I'm guessing with extreme confidence that the valley (apps) will have first measurable October 24th;
that Dulles will follow suit on November 29th
and that there will be a big one for the Jack Frost Celebration on December 5th.
The biggest dump will occur sometime in the vicinity of February 14-20. I know that I should be more specific but the magical fruit flies are having a hard time deciding where to land on the bingo card. March in the Apps will be awesome so don't waste your $$$ going west then.
.. arrrr matey the halyards be raised with a stiff port beam reach ! giddy goat's horns step lively there's snow in the blow !
Eyematey BWAhahahahaha "giddy goat's horns step lively there's snow in the blow ! "
snow in teh blow. Drink up me hearties and Plug the BungHoles theres a storm a comin......
Lookin at what's bin goin on in DC last couple o days maybe a good nick name for DCSki posters.......
Pirates??
We are always on the lookout for "Stashes"..We Plunder the Snow..Ect....But with the tone of some recent posts you could take the p off of Pirates & that would leave just the "Irates"
& yes, just like pirates we seem to be commandeering this thread!
Hy-jack!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, The colder shot came in as expected..close but no frosty cigar. 35 to 36 at 3800' (canaan hts) With 32 up at snowshoe. there were some flakes flying around i'm sure but no big deal.
Looks like I'm the 1st one that will have to leave the DC Pin sweepstakes since my 2nd cold front for the 11th doesn't look to good sooo I'm rooting on Kris,Kwill & JonJon...one of those folks will get the "1st snow" towards the end of Oct. It always Snows up at the Davis-Valley area sometime around Halloween.
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and that there will be a big one for the Jack Frost Celebration on December 5th.
So let me get this straight, Tlines opening co-incides with teh Jack Frost??? if you planning to go down that weekend this is a good omen better leaf early.
Well, The colder shot came in as expected..close but no frosty cigar. 35 to 36 at 3800' (canaan hts) With 32 up at snowshoe. there were some flakes flying around i'm sure but no big deal.
Checking the Dolly Sods cam this morning, it looked like there was some snow on the trees but it was hard to tell. 26 degrees atop Mount Leconte this morning!
The latest long range GFS shows a cold shot with Lake effect potential( WV ALPPS) for the morn of the 22nd to the morn of the 24th...If that played out & we had the 1st accum at the stroke of 12 midnite the day of the 22nd who would win...JonJon's 21st predict or Kwills 24th predict?...Or does it have to be date specific?
Anybody know if there were flurries this morning in CV? Looked like it was below freezing and some spotty green blobs on the radar...
Nawwww..That webcam shot is from april 29th,2008..It was 29 up at SS this morn & the Canaan heights man has taken today off it seems along with the Dolly Sods cam being out also, so no morn report there..maybe an inch up on MPC
.http://rickholt.net/theanteaterjanuary1975terrapintrailclubnewsletter.htm..... Here are some old hiking stories with one "Almost Snowin WV" read about some snow on the 18th
That write up is pretty darn funny....
I'm heading to Dolly Sods next weekend for an overnight backpacking trip with my Outdoor Rec class. Should be interesting as just how chilly it gets on Saturday night. I am just praying it doesn't rain.
Where did you find this at Andy? I've wasted WAY too much time reading through these memoirs of mindless travel through the majestic portions of WV. I'd especially recommend "Ye Old Bushwhacking Torture January 11, 1975".....
75 degrees in DC & 14 inches of snow up on MPC...& water everywhere..For SNowmaking! If the spruce were that thick & tall then,think how much bigger they have gotten in the last 33 years!..Great wind break & snow retainers..
Watch out for some cool temps up at the Sods next weekend with a decent chance of some showers David..
It frosted for the first time here in Hardy Co last night. Snow is right around the corner!
19 degrees at the base of Snowshoe this morning at 7:15.
19 this morning here, too.
The latest long range GFS shows a cold shot with Lake effect potential( WV ALPPS) for the morn of the 22nd to the morn of the 24th...If that played out & we had the 1st accum at the stroke of 12 midnite the day of the 22nd who would win...JonJon's 21st predict or Kwills 24th predict?...Or does it have to be date specific?
still looking like a chance for flakes Tue nite into wed morn...& I'm still seeing some cold wet stuff around Halloween..give or take a day..Stay tuned!
Fish,
My turn - the the camping/hiking trip described in the Dolly Sods Snowing post you linked to appears to not be from this year. They set out on the 18th, yet somehow camped out on site the night of 17 October.
The Colonel
Colonel, I'm not sure exactly when the DS trip report was from but if scroll down a little ways you can see the MPC trip report, which was in 1975. I am assuming that all of the reports on that page are pretty old. Those old Joe Six Packs sure do type up some good reports though.....
Looking at the long range forcast for next week, I better get some heat on in my Bonner Mtn. house
Maybe snow by Thanksgiving which means turns at the shoe.
Ain't it a shame that you have to be thinking about the shoe when you can look up at MPC & you are just around the corner from Canaan & Timberline?!!?...
I'm betting on a decent Thanksgiving this year..I think that the only thing that will screw it up is if by bad chance we get a little rain during the holiday period .. we could get snow & Cold before & after..its all about timing in the M/A.
The strongest & Cheapest Lite beer is Southpaw..Squirt a little lime in it & throw away your Corona!
Yeh SS..the moisture veered north & is now giving a little snow action to NE.
Looks like JonJon is now booted off of the "1st Snow surviver series" & Quill looks to be booted off "1st track mountain" soon..That leaves Kris with a very interesting F-cast Scenerio developing that could leave him holding the award! Looking at the latest (the one that this amature has access to) GFS model, it shows snow up in the Alpps from mon morn, continuing for a few days...Judging by the last few Teases, I'm thinking that there is something fishy about this run!
They're getting a foot of snow and 60 mph winds in western Kansas, do I get any awards for beating out the WV Alps this year? You'll be able to ski the upper 1/3 of "Ski Kansas" tomorrow!
Of course, it's supposed to be 70 out there on Saturday, so you best ski it quickly...
Watch where you go...The Prarie dogs leave yellow snow!
You didn't predict it Roger so all you get is a front line grunt reporter pin..its in the mail
That Storm your talkin about is what will bring the western front Alpps a good cold shot & snow chance. The main storm will just bring rain..it will be the backside that brings a taste of winter to the MidAtl Highlands but once again the F-casters arn't really sure of the all important track & timing..so stay tuned!
NOAA is saying:
Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...Field2=-79.4665
I biked tonight after work. 47 and misting with a 15 mph breeze. Sure am glad it ain't snowin', it's just so balmy right now!
Apart from the hypothermia, the best part about being outdoors in weather like this is that no one else is. Wonder what it would be like biking in Goodland today?
With low temps up at CV last week of 31,28,26,28,28,24,24 the ground will be cool enough for a little accum. Wish I could head to my camp up there & have a "1st snow Party"!
Looks like Kris's 29th of Oct 1st snow predict is out, but he would have been the closest.
Looks like there will be a dusting by mon morn with a good impulse heading in for mon aft & eve so tue morn there should be some good pics out of the whitegrass site!...I am powerless over snow....
Or maybe the Alpps will look like this...Stowe south..MPC..the mountain that brought me to DCSKI...I know, some of you hate that mountain!
http://www.wvhighlands.org/roaring-plains/CRW_0793-725.htmOh..Enjoy the rest of the Pics of the Alpps...Ain't no reason to look any further.."Almost Heaven West Virginia"!!
If you look hard at the MPC picture, you can see Andy back in the woods with a hacksaw going at it. Third pine from the left, just below the other ridge, you can't miss him!
If you look hard at the MPC picture, you can see Andy back in the woods with a hacksaw going at it. Third pine from the left, just below the other ridge, you can't miss him!
Wow, now that you mention it, that sure is Andy.
BTW, I spent the night in a tent around 3,800 ft last night and believe me when I say that it got a little chilly. The rain and clouds cleared out by 2 pm or so yesterday and made for a beautiful day. And I have never seen the stars like I saw them last night. Simply amazing. I love Dolly Sods!
With low temps up at CV last week of 31,28,26,28,28,24,24 the ground will be cool enough for a little accum. Wish I could head to my camp up there & have a "1st snow Party"!
Looks like Kris's 29th of Oct 1st snow predict is out, but he would have been the closest.
Looks like there will be a dusting by mon morn with a good impulse heading in for mon aft & eve so tue morn there should be some good pics out of the whitegrass site!...I am powerless over snow....
Do i still get credit for being the closest??? lol Im still holding out for the 29th...But it looks like tonight will be the night...Im happy and sad all at the same time...
29 & allready a trace up at Canaan hgts but like I said a couple of days ago,(I got good scources) another impulse will swing thru later today & tonight so it looks like we just missed a rescue operation to get David out of the Sods!...This looks like a pretty decent early season Lake enhanced arctic front snow shot for the western front & Kris will have snow on the ground for the 29th...it just came a little early!....we need this around mid Nov..this one will just look pretty..
Elevation will play a big roll due to the still warm ground & the extra lift of course...You need to be camping up at 4770" MPC David so we can get some awesome pics!..There will be an award winning blizzard going on up there I'm sure
We are able to get this type of cold shot because once again our ice cap has defied odds & has come back to nearly what it was 30 years ago...the cold air has built up over the arctic & now it needs to vent south & Voila!
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...=27&sy=2008
http://www.snowshoemtn.com/mountain/dailyPhotos.htmRather than look at the daily photos, go to the video gallery and look at two videos: "Winter is Here" showing snowmaking and flurries; and "What's New At Snowshoe" showing pictures of installation of the new Cupp Run midstation and trail widening. At the 1:28 minute in the latter video there is a scene on a very crowded run, obviously during a very busy weekend. Anybody recognize the run with all the skier bodies and bumper skiers on it?
The Colonel
Snow has commenced. Its below freezing already -- not too worried about the snow sticking as even the little dusting this morning stuck around for a while -- until the sun ate it up.
The radar shows it snowing around SS but I think pittsburg radar is having problems so I wasn't sure if it had started. I just CKed out the 730pm Dolly sods cam & there were no lights showing in the valley which can mean its snowing so thanks for confirming the Snow start Jonjon1....this is a fun system to watch..looking at a low heading up to NE to make things even more interesting for us weather watchers!...Who's thinking of some Turkey Carving down a fun slope?
Funny enough it is like early September here in UT, not late October. Highs are flirting with 70F all week and no hard frost anytime soon. Boo!!!
Boo!..You did a halloween funny!
..You better enjoy your Indian summer Tromano..you know that won't last long!
4.6 inches at 3800' as of 7am with no blowing or drifting & a temp of 28.(Pretty) The temp didn't get as cold as thought last nite... cold air going over 55 to 57 degree lake temps? Low pressure heading up the coast? Where ya at Langleyskier? How ya looking Jonjon at.. 3100'?
I haven't gone out to do an official measurement yet this morning, but it looks like there is somewhere between 3-4" on the ground and still snowing. Temp 30. Maybe we can get 10" out of this???
Come back Kwill...your confused & lost...What are you posting on that "Virus" thread (26260) for? You started the 1st snow thread...come home Kwill
..David is playing the field...
Any idea how much snow Wisp got? Their webcams aren't live.
At 7 Springs appears to be just wet snow, no accumulation.
Has Canaan been making snow? Silly question I know but if that is all natural I'm on it. The junkboards are in the car.
OK Andy.... I'm back. Who's got the date right or is closest? Maybe the ridges will get a foot when all is said and done. I love it when the Lake effects crank up.
It looks like Kris hit the bulls eye with his prediction.
Now we have two dates left to predict correctly...those being the biggest in the WV Alpps and the first measurable at Dulles.
I'm in Oakland, MD, now at work. Only a slushy half inch on the grassy areas -- maybe an inch on elevated surfaces. Snowfall diminished quickly as I made my way down the mountain.
I always knew i had a special talent....I should be a psychic...I think i could make some money...What you guys think?
Lets see if it works again...
I predict a very cold, wet, SNOWY winter!!!!!!!
With lots of time off to go skiing...
With lots of time off to go skiing...
Oh Nooooo! The stocks will bottom out..there will be no work
....sounds good?!?!!
Here are some pics from around 3pm.
http://s419.photobucket.com/albums/pp274/jrobeson_2008/Oct%2028%20snow/
Have somewhere close to 4 inches on the ground at base of Snowshoe, with NWS saying we can have 10" on top of the mountain by dawn. Would be more specific, but there is also a 30 mph wind with this, and it is very nice beside the woodburner with my Goose on the rocks. 30 degrees, 6:37 PM 10/28/08
It officially snowed in Hardy Co today!!! On the way home from Winchester, at Pine Ridge outside of Wardensville, I was getting a snowshower on Corridor H. While nothing stuck and it was a shower vs a full out snow storm, it has snowed in October!!
Also gas hit $2.19 outside Winchester this evening. Who said gas would never hit $2.00 gallon again?
..David is playing the field...
You should know that's how I roll. BTW, is spit a little snow here in Harrison County. Nothing much though. Boy would I like to be in those Alpps right now. I would be if I didn't have class!! Oh yeah, have I mentioned lately that I am graduating in less than 2 months?? Everyone here on DCSki is invited to the party. We'll see ya there.
Canaan hgts cks in with a storm total of 10.8 inches & still coming down....It will be a foot when its all said & done...Thats about as big as it gets in Oct....Now the long wait to Turkey Carving...lets do this all over again in mid nov. Like the Whitegrass site said yest... Don't come now..this is just a test!
Yep, and it tested out just fine...
Canaan hgts cks in with a storm total of 10.8 inches & still coming down....It will be a foot when its all said & done...Thats about as big as it gets in Oct....Now the long wait to Turkey Carving...lets do this all over again in mid nov. Like the Whitegrass site said yest... Don't come now..this is just a test!
Where do you find that information?
The DS webcam sure does look beautiful right now (6:05 pm). Boy would I LOVE to be up there playing in the snow!!!
