big storm???? (may take while to load)
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langleyskier
December 11, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Saturday night-Monday morning:

Well i know i started a discussion last time it looked like we were in for a good winter storm then all went to hell and most got rain so ill knock on some wood and try not to jinx this storm.

As of now it appears that the mid Atlantic/NE could be in for a very large and powerful winter storm that could deliver 12 inches+ of snow from DC to maine and around 2 ft for the WV highlands and poconos. I dont want to go into any details but just want to give a heads up for everyone that this weekend has the potential for a historic storm on the east coast.

Some maps: (blue 0 degree line signifies the rain snow line approximately

Start of storm:


Middle of storm:



End of storm:



Storm total precipitation:

Taylormatt
December 11, 2007
Member since 12/3/2004 🔗
339 posts
I'll believe it when I see it \:\)

Right now, I'm planning on riding coral reef in a misty fog...that way I won't be let down.
fishnski
December 11, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
I was just going to post on the arctic thread in response to Jimmi that I figgured you would have a better handle on anything in the future....I thought you were going a little overboard on last weeks snow but you pretty much nailed it!..I was thinking that we were going to get 2.. 6 to 7 inch events Which was a little short...I think you were saying up to 16 inches at one time last week....Looking at this potential stuff early this morning there was a little concern that the main low might just slip to the west side of the Alpp's spine which would mean more rain till it went by to get to the snow...keep wachin for us!
langleyskier
December 11, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Ya west of the alps would mean another chilly rain storm for all... no good. But as of now it looks solid for pretty much everyone. Like i said... this has POTENTIAL but is in absolutely no way a sure thing. There are so many things that could go wrong its not even funny.
As for last week the reason i went so bullish for WVA was that historically they do very well from clippers and lake effect/upslope events and that was exactly what lasted throughout the entirety of last week (upslope form the begining of the week with the clipper to finish out the week). Of course i never would have thought that DC would end up with 4 inches out of that system! maybe 2 but 4 was way more than i thought!
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comprex
December 11, 2007
Member since 04/11/2003 🔗
1,326 posts
Oh to be in Whistler!
PaulR
December 11, 2007
Member since 02/10/2006 🔗
34 posts
Sorry if I'm a little slow...I'm not a meteorologist. How is this helping your predict the storms?

-Paul
tromano
December 11, 2007
Member since 12/19/2002 🔗
998 posts
If everyone goes to the car wash today it will guarantee snow. ;\)
langleyskier
December 11, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
 Originally Posted By: PaulR
Sorry if I'm a little slow...I'm not a meteorologist. How is this helping your predict the storms?

-Paul


Sorry i am nor exactly sure what you are asking? If you mean the maps then it helps predict storms because it shows, based on current weather and climatology, what it expects to happen over the forecast period. The maps that i posted are at the 850 mb pressure level... you dont need to know what this means... but generally this time of year, the 0 degree line (most southern blue line) depicts the forecasted rain/snow line. The bottom map is the accumulated liquid precip map and shows how much precip (any form melted down) is forecasted to fall over the 60 hr time period (period of the storm).
hockeydave
December 11, 2007
Member since 06/30/2004 🔗
772 posts
I have been observing the long range forecasts for the laurel Highlands for the past few days; as recent as yesterday the predictions for frozen precipitation (snow) was late Friday. Now snow is being predicted as early as tomorrow evening. This weekend could end up being quite nice, and the crowds might be minimal due to the proximity of Christmas.
Kris
December 11, 2007
Member since 03/15/2005 🔗
248 posts
Just a thought...Anybody that follows Crappuweather knows they always predict huge ammounts of snow and we rarely ever get what they predict...

Well, they are predicting 1-3" for davis this weekend.

Now you could look at that 2 ways...

1st...we wont get anything but rain...
2nd...we'll get dumped on...

Either way...that site is never right...

And if these maps hold to be true, we could see a fair ammount of snow this weekend...But as far as I know...I havent seen any weather station or internet site predict more than 4" yet...But its only Tuesday...
langleyskier
December 11, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
 Originally Posted By: Kris
Just a thought...Anybody that follows Crappuweather knows they always predict huge ammounts of snow and we rarely ever get what they predict...

Well, they are predicting 1-3" for davis this weekend.

Now you could look at that 2 ways...

1st...we wont get anything but rain...
2nd...we'll get dumped on...

Either way...that site is never right...

And if these maps hold to be true, we could see a fair ammount of snow this weekend...But as far as I know...I havent seen any weather station or internet site predict more than 4" yet...But its only Tuesday...



Kris, accuweather's practice of precip forecasting for a week away is just ridiculous and thats why they are the only ones who do that. Do not expect this storm to get much hype until thursday because no TV, radio, or website wants to be wrong about forecasting a big storm. If you want a real forecast read your local forecast discussion put out by your local NWS office (can be found by typing your city/zip at http://www.weather.gov and the forecast discussion will be at lower right side of the page). The precip amounts i listed above are puerly based off this one model run and are much more likely then not going to be very wrong. I just posted it to highlight that there is potential for a significant event that would have huge consequences for local resorts (even whitetail is in the sweet spot as of now and with 18 inches of fresh would surely be able to open more terrain very quickly).
langleyskier
December 11, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
 Originally Posted By: hockeydave
I have been observing the long range forecasts for the laurel Highlands for the past few days; as recent as yesterday the predictions for frozen precipitation (snow) was late Friday. Now snow is being predicted as early as tomorrow evening. This weekend could end up being quite nice, and the crowds might be minimal due to the proximity of Christmas.


There is a great potential for a few inches in the laural highlands and around 6 inches (maybe more) for the poconos on thursday. Maybe a little sleet mixed with rain for the DC area as well. Problem is that warm air will be trapped over WVA so it will be more rain then snow there.
fishnski
December 11, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
You are so right Comprex...looks like crunch time in oh Canada!..now Id bet on that storm....this eastern storm...I'm keeping my money in my pocket...for now...
bawalker
December 12, 2007
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
Speaking of weather, has anyone else in the WV area noticed the major temperature inversions going on for the last 3-4 days? Yesterday evening I drove from Mathias to Moorefield across Branch mountain which separates the west and eastern sides of the county. When I left Mathias it was around 44 with a nippy and cold wind. I made it to the top of the mountain and watched the thermometer in the car continue climbing until it reached a whopping 62*! The air was so warm and cozy that I rolled my windows down while driving at 9pm. Then on the descent into Moorefield I could literally watch the thermometer drop a degree for every mile or so driven until it dropped down to about 42* over in moorefield.

Talk about weird.
Taylormatt
December 12, 2007
Member since 12/3/2004 🔗
339 posts
The inversions have been strong at 7S as well. I hate inversions and they seem to have become real common the last few winters.
jb714
December 12, 2007
Member since 03/4/2003 🔗
294 posts
In the strictest sense this does not qualify as an inversion since there is very little elevation difference between the two cities; but this past Monday (10 Dec)the high in D.C. was 54 degrees. In Richmond the high was 77. 23 degrees in roughly 100 miles is fairly dramatic.
bawalker
December 12, 2007
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
I forgot to add that the elevation of Mathias is around 1,700' (44*) with the top of branch mountain coming in around 3,500' (62*) and moorefield coming in at around 800' (42*).
langleyskier
December 12, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Just a little update.... as of now we are all in a great position to do very welel this weekend with little variations in the models but nothing big. The rain/snow mine is going to be very difficult to determine but it looks like a good hit for most N/W of the major cities with a decent hit for the cities. Mountains look to de well and pick up some additional accumulations from the back end of the storm.
David
December 12, 2007
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
 Originally Posted By: langleyskiier
Mountains look to de well and pick up some additional accumulations from the back end of the storm.



Oh gosh....last time you said this they got a little bit more than "some additional accumulations". I hope the same thing happens again

PaulR
December 12, 2007
Member since 02/10/2006 🔗
34 posts
So what does this mean? I'm watching the weather closely and I am thinking I'm going to head up to the 'Shoe this weekend. I know the slopes are probably getting killed with this warm weather so hopefully some snow helps them. Any accumulation projections?

-Paul
skier219
December 12, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Yep, we are thinking of a trip to Snowshoe too, going up Friday night and staying through Monday. I think Saturday will possibly suck, with re-frozen spring snow on the ground and a possible precipitation mix. But Sunday and Monday ought to be great. I am still collecting as much weather info as I can before making a reservation, but the wife has already given a thumbs up.
langleyskier
December 13, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
 Originally Posted By: PaulR
Any accumulation projections?


Absolutely not... haha. Sorry but it would be ill advised to post any precip forecast out this far and truthfully, i know little about the snowshoe are and how it does with these events. Its possible shoe, being further south could even have some mixing issues at the beginning of the storm but will in the end most likely do very well and have great snowmaking opportunities for a week or so afterwards. Like i said earlier, for them and the valley- the big storm could easily give a foot plus (ok so there is my "guess" but dont read too much into it) but no mater what the outcome from the main storm, the back end/upslope will give a good dosing of snow. I would NOT suggest going to shoe this weekend seeing that its been hot as he** there this week and has rained a lot (and will rain more tomorrow with a little backend snow). Conditions will probably be comparable to whitetail right now. Also, sunday will be very snowy and cold and i am sure they will be blasting nonstop the entire day which is never fun. Lastly, the drive home will be deadly. If you want to ski this weekend go to whitetail, 7 springs, or wisp... they stand to get the most out of this storm and all will get at least some frozen precip tomorrow.
langleyskier
December 13, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
 Originally Posted By: skier219
Yep, we are thinking of a trip to Snowshoe too, going up Friday night and staying through Monday. I think Saturday will possibly suck, with re-frozen spring snow on the ground and a possible precipitation mix. But Sunday and Monday ought to be great. I am still collecting as much weather info as I can before making a reservation, but the wife has already given a thumbs up.


Might be a good idea... but like i said... At shoe you can be assured monday will be good skiing and sun will prob be pretty sweet as well. I was referring to the above post to not even consider diving back on sunday... would be a death wish
fishnski
December 13, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Its looking like it did a few days ago that it will be running up the west side of the MTNs which will be hard to get too much accum snow till after it pasts doesn't it L-Ski?..The nam this morn doesn't really show any storm at all..I don't trust the nam though. I have always put more faith in the gfs. Then there is the issue of the cross jumping of energy to the coast which can stop any momenton that at least the Alpps had going for them. Then again another issue with how fast it books on out of here. This is too tricky for me to touch with a 10 foot snow gun!
kwillg6
December 13, 2007
Member since 01/18/2005 🔗
2,023 posts
In my years of doing the shoe, I have found that this type of storm can do almost anything. One year, we had feet of the stuff and by the time we got to VA we were in the middle of a huge ice storm. Another time, it was 15 and rained about an inch of crispy creamy icing on us, our cars etc.... just because of the shoe's elevation and the overriding warm air. It's a crap shoot no matterhow you look at it. One thing for certain, Monday would be a nasty day on the west side of their mountain with the strong NW winds. It'll be bowl side only!
skier219
December 13, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
GFS is only showing 4-5" for Snowshoe right now, assuming 10:1 s/w ratio. Interestingly, the NAM had been looking quite flakey but seemed to recompose itself and is saying 8-10". I guess I might not trust it with such a flip flop. Either way, I think there will be icing/sleet on Saturday and Saturday night and that won't help skiing conditions.

I think the real jackpot for this storm will be northern New England. No question they will get 12+ inches up there and there isn't any major chance of rain/ice at any point.
PaulR
December 13, 2007
Member since 02/10/2006 🔗
34 posts
I plan on staying up there until Monday (driving back Monday evening). We'll see what happens :).

-Paul
langleyskier
December 13, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Ya the nam looks like crap but if i were to have trusted the nam for today's storm i would be looking outside at 10 inches of snow... what do i have?... 1.5 inches of pure sleet.

Fishnski- this storm is not actually forecasted to be an apps runner technically speaking. It does go up the west side of the apps until it hits kentucky or WVA but then the energy from the system transfers to a coastal system. That is pretty much what happens with all major east coast winter storms but the problem for this storm is that the energy transfers far enough north that the initial low (one on west side of apps) has plenty of time to warm up the east coast and change everything to sleet/freezing rain/rain for us and hen not enough time to funnel in cold air on the backside after the energy transfers. So for us i guess its kinda a hybrid apps runner/coastal low. Still has plenty of potential but not looking so great for shoe and the valley.

some maps to show what i mean:

1) looks like its going to go west of the mnts


2) Starts to transfer southward and picks op lots of moisture from the gulf


3)Really starts to transfer to the coast... but look how far that little blue line i always talk about has pushed north


4) we have a coastal system and it changes to heavy snow for west VA


5)Runs up the coast and gets really cold on the backside (still snow for west VA)... flurries for DC


6)Just for fun here is the upslope continuing (12 hrs after the previous image)
langleyskier
December 13, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
 Originally Posted By: PaulR
I plan on staying up there until Monday (driving back Monday evening). We'll see what happens :).

-Paul


Good luck... will be a really messy weekend up there but at least monday should be good skiing. However, I really would suggest checking conditions after todays storm... they got a lot of rain
bawalker
December 13, 2007
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
Hrm, I wonder how this will affect my planned trip to Snowshoe with a few guys?

Btw it will be my first time to snowshoe.
Clay
December 13, 2007
Member since 04/11/2006 🔗
555 posts
 Originally Posted By: bawalker
Btw it will be my first time to snowshoe.


Really? I think you're going to enjoy it, even if the conditions aren't perfect. It's just one of those places.... \:\)
skier219
December 13, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
I think we're going to bail -- looks like rain on Saturday now. Sunday and Monday should be decent though.
bawalker
December 13, 2007
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
Yeah, one of those places where the base lodge is at the top. Can't say I've ever been to a place like that before. lol
crunchy
December 14, 2007
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
 Originally Posted By: skier219
I think we're going to bail -- looks like rain on Saturday now. Sunday and Monday should be decent though.


This would be a great weekend to head up to upstate NY or VT tho! I think they just got a foot of fresh, and are about to get hammered sunday again! \:\) i'm very tempted to make a road trip, but all my gear is in canaan valley right now \:\(
Longboard
December 14, 2007
Member since 12/4/2007 🔗
7 posts
IF you were to road trip North where are the best places to go?

Drive times?

Cheers - LB
JimK - DCSki Columnist
December 14, 2007
Member since 01/14/2004 🔗
2,701 posts
LB, you haven't told us much about your interests in terrain, après ski, budget, how far you want to drive, etc; but here are a few options based on a very superficial and possibly inaccurate look at current weather developments (I think currently you have to go north of PA to get appreciably better conditions then our local areas):
Drive about 6 hrs from DC to Catskill Mtns of NY, they will get snow/sleet mix this weekend, pretty good skiing at Hunter, Windham, Belleayre ski areas all with verticals around 1500'
Drive about 10 hrs to southern VT, believe they have significant recent snow, good places for intermediate cruising are Mt. Snow, Stratton, Okemo.
Drive another hour to Killington, more snow and tougher slopes
Drive another couple hours to northern VT, lots of snow, nearly 100% open conditions at Stowe, Sugarbush, etc. Also similar conditions in northern NH.
This is shaping up to be some of the best Christmas skiing in New England in recent years...knock on wood.

PS: I guess I should add that depending on what happens this weekend locally and based on cold temps next week, we could have much improved local skiing in about a week.
Also, Crunchy may be correct, my driving times are very approximate.
crunchy
December 14, 2007
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
unless there is massive traffic, you should be able to get to Killington from DC in a little over 8hrs if you keep up with the flow of the traffic in the fast lane \:\) i think its only like 500miles from DC.
langleyskier
December 14, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
hijack much... haha

just wanted to add to what JimK said about locals next week. Looks like the main benefactors from this storm are going to be wisp and 7 springs (after some freezing rain or rain to start) then every place north of the snowtime areas; which will probably see a ton of rain and/or freezing rain. Still a chance that precip will mic further south giving more snow to snowtimes and some mix for DC but more likely then not there will just be some mixing in DC followed by rain then flurries. Snowshoe is going to get very screwed once again and see lots of rain/freezing rain to stat out then transition to snow sometime overnight and pick up a decent amount... but probably not enough to repair the damage the rain will do. After everything there will be some nice upslope for canaan and shoe as well as a few more inches for wisp and 7 springs. Next week should be nice and cold and be a great weeek for snowmaking but we may have another rain/ice storm approaching the following friday to once again ruin a weekend of skiing... at least with this active pattern there is a good chance that sooner or later we will see a large storm that gives snow to everyone
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