Global Warming and the DC Ski Region
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10 users
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jnf
April 8, 2007
Member since 01/24/2005 🔗
4 posts
As we hear more and more about Global Warming, I'm wondering how it will affect our local ski scene? I'm assuming the local mountains operate on razor thin margins and if some of these predictions come true, we we see a loss in our local skiing?

Don't know if anyone has any thoughts on this?

I know this is a downer post but I'm in my post ski season mode...
Ullr
April 8, 2007
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
April 8, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,105 posts
Since this is your third post...I'll first say, WELCOME to DCSki.
GW has been beat to death on this forum, so much so that our leader has asked that we not post GW stuff any more.
Yes, GW could impact the WV Alpps, but for me, this weekend and the second half of the season shows that GW stands for "Getting White" when it come to the WV Alpps.
The Colonel
crunchy
April 8, 2007
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
well, if weather patterns caused most resorts to not be able to operate, there would still be one area that would not be affected... but I will let mr fishnski fill in the blanks

whats most sad is that the "global warming" hypothesis has been pushed for almost 20years now, and its just recently that it taken to be a serious issue by the masses.
KevR
April 8, 2007
Member since 01/27/2004 🔗
786 posts
No one knows.

As i undersand gw, that is extrapolating overall avg temp trends into the future has been based solely on the successful computer modeling of the 20th century's overall temp trends -- computed from all known available inputs, various collected data from the time period, and fancy global climate models (programs).

In other words, no one can say really in what state many "microclimates" might end up -- but the models seem to have replicated the *overall* temp trend of the BIG PICTURE, hence the qualified confidence at predicting overall temp trends in the 21st century given various adjustments to the inputs ("hmm, suppose we doubled the CO2, then what happends in 50 yrs to the earth's temps?", etc...) -- but not the temp in your back yard!


So -- in theory I suppose the whole world could see AVG temps rise over some future time period, but the mid-atlantic COULD avg far colder due to shifts in cold ocean currents or other unknown phenomena we little understand, etc... we don't know! (or it could be hotter etc...)

of course EVENTUALLY if this process has a feedback loop and warmth begat warmth, and so forth -- eventually it wouldn't matter and we'd be on a planet something like venus... far too warm for skiing as i understand it.
langleyskier
April 8, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Quote:

so much so that our leader has asked that




true but just thought it sounded funny

jnf- welcome to the board! but as the colonel said> this topic is "off limits" on this forum and every time it is brought up seems to quickly digress into personal attacks and bitter arguments not fit for a skiing forum.
skier219
April 9, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
The reality is that the scientific community is just now coming to a comprehensive understanding of GW. In the future, I think we will be able to discuss the topic more accurately and more clearly. Right now, it is still controversial and heated. It can be hard to separate hype/talk from real facts. This was especially true this past season when medium-range weather patterns gave us abnormally mild weather early on. It had nothing to do with GW, however.

As KevR accurately noted, we don't yet have a handle on what GW could mean for mid-A ski areas. A true GW event will mean that some areas of the world will actually get cooler, due to changes in ocean temps, flow of the gulf stream, and flow of the jet stream. I am not sure we can say what will happen with any certainty yet, but the scientific community is working towards that.
jnf
April 9, 2007
Member since 01/24/2005 🔗
4 posts
Sorry about this topic folks... I honestly didn't know it was a banned issue and I was posting with all good intentions.

I'll zip it on this one....

JNF
tromano
April 9, 2007
Member since 12/19/2002 🔗
998 posts
Quote:

As i undersand gw, that is extrapolating overall avg temp trends into the future has been based solely on the successful computer modeling of the 20th century's overall temp trends -- computed from all known available inputs, various collected data from the time period, and fancy global climate models (programs).

In other words, no one can say really in what state many "microclimates" might end up -- but the models seem to have replicated the *overall* temp trend of the BIG PICTURE, hence the qualified confidence at predicting overall temp trends in the 21st century given various adjustments to the inputs ("hmm, suppose we doubled the CO2, then what happends in 50 yrs to the earth's temps?", etc...) -- but not the temp in your back yard!


So -- in theory I suppose the whole world could see AVG temps rise over some future time period, but the mid-atlantic COULD avg far colder due to shifts in cold ocean currents or other unknown phenomena we little understand, etc... we don't know! (or it could be hotter etc...)

of course EVENTUALLY if this process has a feedback loop and warmth begat warmth, and so forth -- eventually it wouldn't matter and we'd be on a planet something like venus... far too warm for skiing as i understand it.




My undergrad studies in chemical engineering is very similar to the study of global climate in many respects, a few course I took were on environmental chemistry which is actualyl a pretty interesting field. GW is based on macro / global scale driving forces. There is no significant debate by any reputable scitentists over the large scale facts that the panet is on average getting warmer.

The debate is almost entirely centered on how it will happen and what if anything can be done about it. Global climate is a highly nonlinear system with multiple steady states, unsteady transition states, tipping points, etc...The danger is that a small change could push us through a transition state into an unknown and unpredictable future state.
tempfishnski
April 9, 2007
Member since 09/16/2006 🔗
66 posts
The sun is in a very active cycle..thats all there is to global warming....GW will only help the Western front areas due to increased buis...the 5 year snow ave for Canaan Vly is now up to 186"'s.....that is my final Answer!
skier219
April 9, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Quote:

Sorry about this topic folks... I honestly didn't know it was a banned issue and I was posting with all good intentions.

I'll zip it on this one....

JNF




Don't worry about it JNF -- it is only a tough topic here because some people went overboard with an agenda. In many cases we can discuss it without drama, which is the normal intention of posting here. I think your topic title is certainly relevant and of interest to most of the skiers/boarders here. Someday we may very well be dealing with the impact of GW on skiing in this region.
KevR
April 9, 2007
Member since 01/27/2004 🔗
786 posts
It would be kinda interesting if the mid-atlantic settled into significantly colder climate with only a moderate global warming... we might become the new destination ski location for the US!

:-)
SCWVA
April 9, 2007
Member since 07/13/2004 🔗
1,051 posts
Quote:

The danger is that a small change could push us through a transition state into an unknown and unpredictable future state.




Sounds like something Rod Sterling would say at the beginning of "The Twlight Zone"



Tromano - My college roommate and skiing buddy has his Phd. in Chemical Engineering. He does R & D for IBM in Albany, NY. He (and me) is hoping to get transfered to Burlington, VT. His background is in polymers and nanotechnolgy (sp?). He's not a strong believer in GW.
tromano
April 9, 2007
Member since 12/19/2002 🔗
998 posts
Quote:

Quote:

The danger is that a small change could push us through a transition state into an unknown and unpredictable future state.




Sounds like something Rod Sterling would say at the beginning of "The Twlight Zone"

Tromano - My college roommate and skiing buddy has his Phd. in Chemical Engineering. He does R & D for IBM in Albany, NY. He (and me) is hoping to get transfered to Burlington, VT. His background is in polymers and nanotechnolgy (sp?). He's not a strong believer in GW.




Hehe maybe it does. The sahara used to be like the great plains 10000 years ago.

Sounds like he is set. Working in VT for IBM would be a sweet position. I am not currently using my degree in ChemE but you never know since the MFG market in UTAH is much more robust.
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