End of Season?
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nome
February 19, 2007
Member since 01/19/2007 🔗
14 posts
Is the above-freezing weather we are going to have this week a sign of end of skiing season at least for nearby resorts (WT, RT, LIB)?

I myself am out of skiing for the season because now both my ankles are badly sprained. I went bump skiing last Sat at WT with a recently healed right ankle. I hesitated a lot because the feel was not right yet. One of those hesitancies ended up costing me my left ankle mid-slope. Going down the reminder of the slope with busted left ankle caused my recently healed right ankle to be busted again. So I think I now qualify for one of those disabled sticker now.

Bye bye ski season. I'll see you Nov 2007! (please come early and stay this year)
langleyskier
February 19, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
nah, even all the local places have built up enormous stockpiles of snow over the past month and have an ample base to maintain quality skiing throughout this warm stretch. Also, it looks like if they want that the resorts will still be able to make some snow at night throughout this "warm up" (in reality we will have temps close to or maybe a little above normal). I would have to guess that we can expect at least 3 to 4 more weeks of good skiing locally (WT, RT, LB, Mass) if temps stay near normal and good skiing through closing for the larger places (wintergreen, shoe, 7S, T-line, canaan, wisp). I know that wisp has built up an enormous base over the past month and that their site is currently advertising a 40" - 90" base; i would not be surprised if they stayed open through the first or second week of april.
KevR
February 19, 2007
Member since 01/27/2004 🔗
786 posts
WT, RT, and Liberty will likely close "mid-march" as they always do...
Ullr
February 19, 2007
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
My God, we just froze the entire orange crop last night and already people are talking about the end of skiing?

Winter has just started!
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Mountain Masher
February 19, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
The 2 week forecast looks DREADFUL! So, I would expect quality skiing to end at the close-in ski areas by the 2nd weekend in March and the Technical Closure Dates (TCDs) will probably be around the 3rd weekend in March. The higher elevation and Northern ski areas will probably last a week or 2 longer. Of course, an unusually heavy rain could move the TCDs up a week.
Jim
February 19, 2007
Member since 11/22/1999 🔗
317 posts
Don't count the end days just yet!! Rumors are flying that the Snowtime Resorts (Lib, WT, RT) are planning to stay open as long as possible into March (i.e., as in end of - not middle), possibly even early April??? The reason being the late start to the season and the need to make sure season's pass holders, advantage club card members, and night club card holders get their money's worth. Hard to believe, but the ST resorts actually care that they sell a good product and that means so-many skiing days per season. How many days = good product is the million dollar question that nobody seems to know (or will tell), but it does not appear to include a closing mid-March. Don't put away the skis/boards just yet. It seems there is plenty more a comin'!!
Chad
February 19, 2007
Member since 12/12/2000 🔗
270 posts
Quote:

The 2 week forecast looks DREADFUL! So, I would expect quality skiing to end at the close-in ski areas by the 2nd weekend in March and the Technical Closure Dates (TCDs) will probably be around the 3rd weekend in March. The higher elevation and Northern ski areas will probably last a week or 2 longer. Of course, an unusually heavy rain could move the TCDs up a week.




what forecast are you looking at? i just now looked at the accuweather and nws forecasts for mercersburg, pa. to find a low temperature above freezing you have to look all the way out to march 4. and as of last night whitetail is still making snow. if this is dreadful, i will take it.
Mountain Masher
February 19, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I've been looking at the weather.com 10 day forecasts and the NOAA (color coded) 14 day weather charts. Anyway, I was thinking more about the weather trend for the VA ski areas. Keep in mind that some of those forecasted LOWS (for South-Central PA) might mean a dip below freezing for just a few hours (if that) during the night.
KevR
February 19, 2007
Member since 01/27/2004 🔗
786 posts
Well, it's just not impossible that we won't have extended cold thru march, just unlikely. I'd get the skiing in now if you can afford the time, figuring the season will play out somewhat like it has in the past...
Mountain Masher
February 19, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I agree, March is looking to be an AVERAGE month for skiing. I've reached this conclusion for 3 reasons: 1) Late Feb. thru the first few days in March is likely to be somewhat warmer than normal. 2) The entire month of March is now predicted to be slightly warmer than normal. 3) Most ski areas have a deeper base than normal (for this point in the season). So, in conclusion, you have 2 weak negative factors and a positive factor. Put these together, and I think that it translates to average March skiing conditions with most ski areas closing on (or about) their normal closure dates. In fact, after rechecking some of the forecasts (which are down-right toasty), I don't see how any of the close-in ski areas will be able to offer quality skiing after the 2nd weekend in March. Lets hope for a strong COLD snap during the 1st half of March!
skier219
February 19, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
It's way too early to make any guesses one way or another. At the moment, the certainties point to 7-10 days of seasonal to mild weather. Beyond that we can't say for sure. Analogues with past seasons hint that mid to late March could be a very good month for skiers in this area. As usual, planning and a careful eye on the weather are important to get the most out of the last part of the season, especially if you want to time it to hit natural snow.
kwillg6
February 20, 2007
Member since 01/18/2005 🔗
2,021 posts
The sky is not falling, nor is the end near. I cannot be negative after a near record cold snap which lasted much longer than anyone could have hoped. I remember 93 when we had a major BLIZZARD in the mid atlantic in mid March. That and other natural snow dumps of recent years gives me reason to be optimistic. But if not, I'm thankful for what we got. Besides, weather forcasters cannot predict with any accuracy more than 3 to 5 days out. Pattern changes in the jet stream can just as easily reverse which is what makes the weather a forcast, not a written in stone fact.
Ullr
February 20, 2007
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
Not to mention the fact that the record high for this date was back in something like 1938?

A slight warm up this week (just like I predicted!), then right back to colder temps and still one more big snow before the season ends.
KevR
February 20, 2007
Member since 01/27/2004 🔗
786 posts
Ok, Ok, I get it. We've got the 'glass half full' folks and the 'glass half empty' folks...

All I was trying to say is past history suggest reasonably good skiing thru mid-march at places like RT, Lib, WT ... and the other places will of course be whatever their area historically tends towards, like Wisp -- usually late mar to early apr? right.

So the upshot: SKI NOW ... if it continues to be cold and we get more snow, all the better. If it gets warm, then bummer but you made it out ...

Neither are all that likely but not impossible.

The water is in the MIDDLE of the glass.

Mountain Masher
February 20, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Ullr, keep in mind that it was also around the 1930s when the Chesapeake Bay froze up solid, isolating Tangier and Smith Islands. The cold spell of Feb. 2007 was child's play compared to that. Also, the base of Niagara Falls has frozen over (so that you could walk out on the ice just below the falls) several times before, including once in the mid 20th century. The cold spell of 2007 was unusual simply because it lasted far longer than expected, but, in most areas of the mid-Atlantic, the temps were nowhere near records. Of course, I've got to admit that the cold spell took me by complete surprise as I simply didn't think that (in this day and age) arctic air could remain in place (over most of the mid-Atlantic) for such a long period of time.

As for this warm spell that seems to be getting under way, it's not even noon yet and the temp is already up to 42 (at my place in South-Central, PA, which sets at 2,600 ft.). The local weather forecasts that I saw predicted the high to reach only 38, so the high is going to be well above that. Also, it's supposed to RAIN later today and tonight. And, the 2 week forecasts show the mild weather staying in place, not unusually mild, but above average nevertheless.
kwillg6
February 20, 2007
Member since 01/18/2005 🔗
2,021 posts
Above average is a realative term. Average in February ia a lot lower than average in late March. Historically, the average we speak of is just the average over the past 130-40 years or so and does not speak to what the real average may be for, say, the last 500 or 1000 years which may be more accurate. The point also could be made that the location of where a temp is taken has morphed in such a way that a temperature reading taken today may be higher/lower as influenced by heat island effects or other variables. Opps.... I seem to have slipped into a semi global warming discussion.....sorry
Mountain Masher
February 20, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I agree! And, don't get me wrong, I don't think that the sky is falling in terms of how the season is going to end. It's just that I don't see an epic late season; like it or not, warm temps will have taken their toll in another 2 to 3 weeks.
Ullr
February 20, 2007
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
But it's not going to stay warm for 2 - 3 weeks. We only have about 9 more days before it turns cold again.........
langleyskier
February 20, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Quote:

Lets hope for a strong COLD snap during the 1st half of March!




totally agree, we have to remember that winter is NOT over and that it is likely that, although it will be warmer than the last month and a half, there will still be plenty of nights where resorts will be able to make snow and i would not be surprised if we saw another (shorter) cold snap before all is said and done. However, like MM said, the one factor that could easily kill off the local resorts sooner than we would like is rain.
Snowmakers
February 20, 2007
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
When my relatively measly terrain park (15-25") gets close to melting all the way, ill tell you. Other than that, resorts with their 60" bases will be just fine.
Snowmakers
February 20, 2007
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Try telling the people up here that the season is almost over.




Resorts there picked up storm totals from 30 to 70" in 48 hours a less than a week ago.
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