I've been looking at the weather.com 10 day forecasts and the NOAA (color coded) 14 day weather charts. Anyway, I was thinking more about the weather trend for the VA ski areas. Keep in mind that some of those forecasted LOWS (for South-Central PA) might mean a dip below freezing for just a few hours (if that) during the night.

Well, it's just not impossible that we won't have extended cold thru march, just unlikely. I'd get the skiing in now if you can afford the time, figuring the season will play out somewhat like it has in the past...

I agree, March is looking to be an AVERAGE month for skiing. I've reached this conclusion for 3 reasons: 1) Late Feb. thru the first few days in March is likely to be somewhat warmer than normal. 2) The entire month of March is now predicted to be slightly warmer than normal. 3) Most ski areas have a deeper base than normal (for this point in the season). So, in conclusion, you have 2 weak negative factors and a positive factor. Put these together, and I think that it translates to average March skiing conditions with most ski areas closing on (or about) their normal closure dates. In fact, after rechecking some of the forecasts (which are down-right toasty), I don't see how any of the close-in ski areas will be able to offer quality skiing after the 2nd weekend in March. Lets hope for a strong COLD snap during the 1st half of March!

It's way too early to make any guesses one way or another. At the moment, the certainties point to 7-10 days of seasonal to mild weather. Beyond that we can't say for sure. Analogues with past seasons hint that mid to late March could be a very good month for skiers in this area. As usual, planning and a careful eye on the weather are important to get the most out of the last part of the season, especially if you want to time it to hit natural snow.

The sky is not falling, nor is the end near. I cannot be negative after a near record cold snap which lasted much longer than anyone could have hoped. I remember 93 when we had a major BLIZZARD in the mid atlantic in mid March. That and other natural snow dumps of recent years gives me reason to be optimistic. But if not, I'm thankful for what we got. Besides, weather forcasters cannot predict with any accuracy more than 3 to 5 days out. Pattern changes in the jet stream can just as easily reverse which is what makes the weather a forcast, not a written in stone fact.

Not to mention the fact that the record high for this date was back in something like 1938?

A slight warm up this week (just like I predicted!), then right back to colder temps and still one more big snow before the season ends.

Ok, Ok, I get it. We've got the 'glass half full' folks and the 'glass half empty' folks...

All I was trying to say is past history suggest reasonably good skiing thru mid-march at places like RT, Lib, WT ... and the other places will of course be whatever their area historically tends towards, like Wisp -- usually late mar to early apr? right.

So the upshot: SKI NOW ... if it continues to be cold and we get more snow, all the better. If it gets warm, then bummer but you made it out ...

Neither are all that likely but not impossible.

The water is in the MIDDLE of the glass.

Ullr, keep in mind that it was also around the 1930s when the Chesapeake Bay froze up solid, isolating Tangier and Smith Islands. The cold spell of Feb. 2007 was child's play compared to that. Also, the base of Niagara Falls has frozen over (so that you could walk out on the ice just below the falls) several times before, including once in the mid 20th century. The cold spell of 2007 was unusual simply because it lasted far longer than expected, but, in most areas of the mid-Atlantic, the temps were nowhere near records. Of course, I've got to admit that the cold spell took me by complete surprise as I simply didn't think that (in this day and age) arctic air could remain in place (over most of the mid-Atlantic) for such a long period of time.

As for this warm spell that seems to be getting under way, it's not even noon yet and the temp is already up to 42 (at my place in South-Central, PA, which sets at 2,600 ft.). The local weather forecasts that I saw predicted the high to reach only 38, so the high is going to be well above that. Also, it's supposed to RAIN later today and tonight. And, the 2 week forecasts show the mild weather staying in place, not unusually mild, but above average nevertheless.

Above average is a realative term. Average in February ia a lot lower than average in late March. Historically, the average we speak of is just the average over the past 130-40 years or so and does not speak to what the real average may be for, say, the last 500 or 1000 years which may be more accurate. The point also could be made that the location of where a temp is taken has morphed in such a way that a temperature reading taken today may be higher/lower as influenced by heat island effects or other variables. Opps.... I seem to have slipped into a semi global warming discussion.....sorry

I agree! And, don't get me wrong, I don't think that the sky is falling in terms of how the season is going to end. It's just that I don't see an epic late season; like it or not, warm temps will have taken their toll in another 2 to 3 weeks.

But it's not going to stay warm for 2 - 3 weeks. We only have about 9 more days before it turns cold again.........

When my relatively measly terrain park (15-25") gets close to melting all the way, ill tell you. Other than that, resorts with their 60" bases will be just fine.

Try telling the people up here that the season is almost over.




Resorts there picked up storm totals from 30 to 70" in 48 hours a less than a week ago.