An early end to the Ski Season???
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Mountain Masher
February 4, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Although most of the Mid-Atlantic is experiencing a COLD blast right now, its looks like the North Atlantic Oscillation will return to a Positive phase by Friday, the 9th of Feb. A Positive Oscillation would pull most of the frigid air well to the North of the mid-Atlantic. In fact, by the 13th of Feb., some places in VA (ie: Fredericksburg and Richmond) might hit 60 deg.! The base at most ski areas should hold up OK with a bit of mild weather. However, should the mild weather last awhile and combine with some rain, the season would likely come to an early end for a number of ski areas. A couple of observations: Before heading out to 7-S last Friday, my weather radio indicated that the high for Somerset Co., PA would be 23 deg. The actual high hit 31 deg. at 7-S; in fact, wet snow and sleet melted on contact with my ski pants to the point that I was completely soaked. Granted, the skiing was great, but I wondered how the weather forecast could be SO far off. Also, I noticed that the low at Fredericksburg, VA yesterday was 25 deg., the average low for that day is 23 deg. So, despite this Arctic blast, the low at Fredericksburg stayed 2 deg. above average! And, today the highs in Fredericksburg and Richmond are in the 40s! [As of 1:00 PM, Richmond is at 48 deg.!] Conclusion, this cold snap is having a rather limited effect from Wash. DC South (excluding WVA) and is a short-term weather event instead of a trend.

Although the natural snow-pack is currently below normal and there were few snowmaking opportunities during the first half of the season, it looks like the snow-base at 7-S is about 80% of it's normal depth (for this time of year) with some slopes like Gunnar being near 100%. So, 7-S might manage to stay open well into Mar. However, my best guess is that a number of ski areas have a rather thin base, which might not hold up too well as we head towards Mar.
Crazy
February 4, 2007
Member since 01/17/2007 🔗
2 posts
MM, Are you an insecure person? You amaze me.
Mountain Masher
February 4, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
And, YOU amaze me! Come on!!!! If you're going to make such a ridiculous comment please provide some specifics as to why you feel that way (I'm waiting). You see, when you make a comment like that and provide nothing to back it up, you're simply taking a "cheap shot". And, people who take cheap shots ARE insecure!
tommo
February 4, 2007
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
303 posts
I suppose that could happen, but as I sit here in Garrett County, it's 9 degress outside, there's a well settled 1 ft plus of snow on the ground with 2 inches of light dry powder on top, and it seems for all the world like a good February winter eve. Wisp, for one, has many feet of dense base, I just skiied areas there that I've not seen open in 20 years, and the highest temperature that the NWS is forecasting this week is 23.

So, while it may warm back to more seasonal temps by the middle of the month, there essentially zero chance that the season will be threatened as we head towards March.

Sorry.
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jonjon1
February 4, 2007
Member since 09/11/2006 🔗
186 posts
Quote:

I suppose that could happen, but as I sit here in Garrett County, it's 9 degress outside, there's a well settled 1 ft plus of snow on the ground with 2 inches of light dry powder on top, and it seems for all the world like a good February winter eve. Wisp, for one, has many feet of dense base, I just skiied areas there that I've not seen open in 20 years, and the highest temperature that the NWS is forecasting this week is 23.

So, while it may warm back to more seasonal temps by the middle of the month, there essentially zero chance that the season will be threatened as we head towards March.

Sorry.




I agree. From what I understand, during the cold spell the last few weeks there has been a positive NAO for a great deal of that time frame. This cold spell has been mostly Pacific Ocean indices induced. We certainly will not be as cold as we have been recently, however, I'd be surprised if we had any extended warm periods after the middle of this month.
Mountain Masher
February 4, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I agree, Canaan Valley and Snowshoe essentially have their own micro-climate and, to some extent, 7-S and Wisp also tend to have unique weather conditions. But, having said this, some ski areas could enter March after having endured 2 weeks of mild weather. At that point, the question will be.....how far into March can they go? I don't mean to sound overly pessimistic, but, keep in mind that (a little over a week ago) one of the head guys with Accuweather was saying that Feb. 2007 was shaping up to be one of the COLDEST Februarys in 50 years! Also, the "Skiing Weatherman" was basically saying the same thing. Well, one thing that's becoming abundantly clear, it's NOT going to be an unusually cold Feb. So, both of these guys are DEAD WRONG! And, to me, that's big news for mid-Atlantic skiers/snowboarders as well as weather buffs.
GaryEsq
February 4, 2007
Member since 12/20/2005 🔗
54 posts
From everything I've read, the correlation between the NAO and eastern US weather is not as high as you are implying. Sure, it's more likely to have a cold eastern pattern with a negative NAO, but it's not an absolute (again from what I've read).
Mountain Masher
February 4, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I agree, a negative NAO is just one of several factors that can lead to a colder than normal weather pattern or event. However, it's probably one of the stronger factors that tend to open the door for some Arctic air to push down over the mid-Atlantic. One thing that I forgot to mention in my posts above is that Feb. is now predicted to have above average precipitation. Of course, this would mean lots of snow in the higher elevations. On the other hand, the temps at some ski areas will probably fall along the border-line between snow and rain. That's why I'm concerned; one significant rain event (or a series of rains) could spell trouble.
skier219
February 4, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
A decent tool in weather prediction would be to look for analogues to past winters. I have not seen a clear correlation indicating that winter will end early. In fact, some of the analogues suggest that Feb is going to be very snowy.
langleyskier
February 4, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Quote:

MM, Are you an insecure person? You amaze me.




MM- i actually think this is a serious question. I picture you as a grumpy old man who does nothing but complain. Please go away.

Yes it is going to get back to NORMAL. NORMAL does not imply record snow killing warmth. I have been at wisp the last two weeks and their snow base is at or near 100% of normal. Even whitetail has a substantial base built on the majority of their main trails and will be able to stay open well into march even if temps return to normal.
Mountain Masher
February 4, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Sorry LS, I'm NOT going to go away (at least that's my hope). And, I'm not a grumpy old man. If the skiing is good during the week, you can see me blasting down the North side of 7-S on a pair of 188 cm racing stock K2 Mach Gs or a pair of Stockli 184 cm GS Lasers. Also, I have red Nordica Hot Rod ski boots [like the Doberman racing stock model except in red (rather than black) and in 115 flex]. I love to ski FAST and have been at it since I was 3. Needless to say, it would be great to take a few runs with someone from DCSki someday. Of course, I'm a Progressive and an avid Environmentalist, which isn't a crime, although LOTS of Americans would like to make things like that a crime. I'll have to admit that I see the changing climate as a threat to the sport that I love, especially in the mid-Atlantic (as we all do). And, needless to say, I'd like to see drastic action taken to slow down the warming process.
SpringsRegular
February 4, 2007
Member since 10/14/2004 🔗
153 posts
MM,

PM me, I would love to ski with you and discuss the weather. Have to be on a weekend tho.
Mountain Masher
February 4, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Hey, that would be great! I would have been at the Springs this weekend, but I whimped out because I thought that the crowds would be too great and the temps too cold on Sunday. As it turned out, I missed some great skiing on Sunday. That's what I get for being a light-weight.
lightguy
February 6, 2007
Member since 10/11/2005 🔗
19 posts
I'm sorry Mountain Masher, but I actually think the Accuweather guy was close to right. Maybe it won't be the coldest Feb. in 50 years, but the 1st part IS the coldest in recent years. I haven't heard of any records being set, but this is some of the coldest weather I've seen in the 7 winters I've lived in NVA. The news was reporting that down town DC had the coldest low temp in the last 11 years earlier this week, so I'm not sure where your coming from. Do you actually like skiing?
tommo
March 7, 2007
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
303 posts
I thought it might be fun to revisit this post now that a month as gone by... Let's see, since Feb 4th there's been almost continuous snow, EVERY area is still 100% open, there's about 2 feet of solid snowpack throughout the highlands with a fresh 12 - 16 inches of powder on top and it's presently 15 degrees and snowing in Garrett County. On top of that, the XC conditions for the last month have been absolutely epic and the next few days may be some of the best conditions of the last 10 years! Hmmmm, looks like the new title should be "A full blast finish to an OUTSTANDING ski season"
Snowmakers
March 7, 2007
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Quote:

I thought it might be fun to revisit this post now that a month as gone by... Let's see, since Feb 4th there's been almost continuous snow, EVERY area is still 100% open, there's about 2 feet of solid snowpack throughout the highlands with a fresh 12 - 16 inches of powder on top and it's presently 15 degrees and snowing in Garrett County. On top of that, the XC conditions for the last month have been absolutely epic and the next few days may be some of the best conditions of the last 10 years! Hmmmm, looks like the new title should be "A full blast finish to an OUTSTANDING ski season"





Getting back from snowshoe today, I approve this post.

Awesome conditions.
Ullr
March 9, 2007
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
Just got in from VT, and I think the warmest day we had was with a windchill in the single digits and the coldest day was -25. Frostbite warnings posted all over the mountain and tons of snow.
Roger Z
March 10, 2007
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Maybe it'll make MM feel better to know that there probably was an early end to the ski season out here in KS. However, this being my first winter out here, I don't know if this is standard or not. Seasons do end very suddenly out here, and it seems like autumn comes earlier too, so maybe this 60 degree early March weather is the norm here.

Oh well, it's been, uh... extremely jealousy-inducing to be reading about the epic conditions back east. My girlfriend has even been taunting me in Baltimore. The only consolation I get is that she likes mild weather, so when she calls up to tell me about the snow, I can tell her that the early flowers are in starting to pop up around here... mutually-assured unhappiness! That's the cornerstone to a successful relationship!

Hope this is a fun weekend for y'all!
jimmy
March 11, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
Ya Tommo, just back last nite from week in Utah, ran into Jay K, used to teach at wisp, at Snowbasin on Wednesday. I almost cried when he told us Wisp got 12 the night before. Course we got a bunch of ~Crush Slush~ to ski at the Canyons the next day, Bird was so sweet Friday, but you all in the highlands got the best of it last week. Gotta run, off to meet my daughter at 7Springs, don't want to miss another great day of this "OUTSTANDING ski season" .
Mountain Masher
March 11, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
For many ski areas within the mid-Atlantic, the last day of the season will arrive about on-time. Few ski areas will last much beyond their normal closure dates. It's hard to believe, but places like Richmond and Fredericksburg, VA might flirt with 80 deg. within the next few days. Of course, the only saving grace is that it's predicted to be relatively dry, otherwise a significant rain event (combined with these warm temps) could wipe things out in a hurry. I believe that nation-wide, it was the 34th coldest Feb. on record, and, within the mid-Atlantic, Feb. ranked much colder than that I'm sure. The unusual Late Jan.-thru-Feb. cold spell saved the ski season. However, if you look at the overall weather pattern prior to the cold spell and the weather that we're having now, GW appears to be alive and well. I don't think that we can count on such an unusual cold spell during future ski seasons, but we CAN count on MORE unusual WARM spells. I still believe that we will see a few ski areas within the mid-Atlantic CLOSE within the next 10 to 15 years.
fishnski
March 11, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Its in the Mid 80's in FL..it hit 74 at my house in the carolinas..its 37(at 330pm) with tons of Snow still on the ground up at Canaan..& 19 Mushers had to drop out of the Iditorod up in Alaska because of the EXTREME COLD & HARSH Conditions!...That Cold could work its way down for a late season surprise..if not, I just fired up the engines of Both my boats & we are ready to launch!...Weather seems...NORMAL?
langleyskier
March 11, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
haha!!!! i love how MM returns once it gets warm. And no you are incorrect, the local places (WT, Lib, RT, Mass) will all be open a week or two longer then they are normally open and this is one of the few times i have ever seen them all with 100% of terrain open on march 11th. As for the larger places, they all have strong bases and will be able to stay open as long as they want. As for the global warming issue, this season is no proof for or against global warming, we had extreme cold (DC tied the most consecutive days with a low at or lower than 32) and extreme warmth (warmest christmas break of my life). The warmth we are experiencing now is nothing abnormal, last week was cold, this week is warm and next week will be about average. My guess is that we will finish march around average and overall winter will be around average or maybe a little above.

and ps---- there are no ski resorts in fredericksburg or richmond for a good reason
Mountain Masher
March 11, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Open a week or TWO longer than their normal closure dates? Don't think so, most of the close-in ski areas will close on or about their normal closure dates. I say "about" because one or two ski areas MIGHT close ONE week later than normal, but with horrible conditions by then. Now, having said this, I've been skiing 7-Springs for the past 3 days and the base is holding up very well. Provided 7-S doesn't get hit with some heavy rain, I think that they can stay open until the last weekend in Mar.
langleyskier
March 12, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
This week is normally the last week for the snowtime resorts and the conditions would normally be brown, thin, mush and slop. This year they are all 100% open with extremely strong bases. This is not normal for this time of year for them.
Mountain Masher
March 12, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Maybe, but won't the bases start to get thin by Fri.? And, even though it's going to get a bit cooler by the weekend, there's a chance of rain by then. I suppose that places like WT might be open the weekend after next, but the conditions are likely to be minimal. So, perhaps all of this late season cold weather and snow will have resulted in an additional week of skiing, which isn't particularly note-worthy. Anyway, time will tell.
Jim
March 12, 2007
Member since 11/22/1999 🔗
317 posts
Direct from the March 12, 2007 Liberty Mountain Newsletter:

Quote:

Spread the word!
Everyone wants to know when we are going to close for the season. Well, in a way, that is up to you!
We still have tons of snow, and ALL trails are still open - there is alot of great skiing to be had! As long as business levels justify it, we'll keep the lifts running!




Note the last sentence As long as the business levels justify it . . .. LM management is saying this as plainly and as clearly as possible - TONS OF SNOW. KEEP COMING AND THEY WILL STAY OPEN! It won't be conditions that shut down any of the close-in resorts. Its competition with spring time activities when Washingtonians and Baltimorians hang up the skis to go bicycling, rollerblading, fishing, gardening, jogging, etc.
energy177
March 12, 2007
Member since 12/1/2004 🔗
19 posts
Quote:

This week is normally the last week for the snowtime resorts and the conditions would normally be brown, thin, mush and slop. This year they are all 100% open with extremely strong bases. This is not normal for this time of year for them.




brown and thin? i dont know about that. I cant really speak for liberty and whitetail, but usually roundtop still has a fairly strong base around this time of year with lots of slopes open. there have been many many years where the people leave before the snow does.
jimboc
March 12, 2007
Member since 03/30/2004 🔗
260 posts
Everyone go back and look at the threads from October and November when we were all so desperate for the local resorts to "get something open" "im dying to go skiing" "id do anything to get a few turns in".......we'll now they've got it open so go ski!!
langleyskier
March 12, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Quote:

Maybe, but won't the bases start to get thin by Fri.? And, even though it's going to get a bit cooler by the weekend, there's a chance of rain by then. I suppose that places like WT might be open the weekend after next, but the conditions are likely to be minimal. So, perhaps all of this late season cold weather and snow will have resulted in an additional week of skiing, which isn't particularly note-worthy. Anyway, time will tell.




MM- ya if i had to guess the trails that they do not focus on when they make snow (ex- farside at WT) will probably be wearing thin by this weekend. However, the trails they do focus snowmaking on (ex-Angle Drop, exhibition) should have plenty of base for another week, two, or three of skiing after this weekend. To prove how this season is going longer then last year's look at liberty who had their springfest a week and a half ago yet are still 100% open with a strong base and are now planning another party for this weekend (St. patties day theme). Normally, the snowtimes (besides maybe RT which is a little farther north) close because of lack of snow not lack of customers.
Mountain Masher
March 12, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
NO WAY Langelyskiier!!!!!!!!! You're living in a dream world if you think that WT can last beyond the weekend after next. I was at 7-S today and even 7-S was showing some thin and bare spots. WT will be open this weekend with lots of bare spots. The Technical Closure Date (TCD) will probably be the weekend after next, of course the conditions will be marginal by then.
langleyskier
March 12, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
I agree about WT, they will close the weekend of the 25th and conditions will be crappy at best. I used them as an example because i know the resort better then the other snowtimes (which trails they make a lot on compared to those which the do not). However, you somehow think that the word snowtimes means only WT. Liberty and especially RT, which do no face south and have seemed to work harder at snowmaking in the later part of this season, will be able to stay open longer (unless we receive a catastrophic warm rain event). This weekend and next week will be fairly cold for this time of year so only marginal melting will occur compared to this week (i would not be surprised if we were graced with a late march snowfall this year). Like others have said, RT has the possibility of staying open until april 1st this year. MM- april 1st, no matter how crappy the conditions is much later then they normally stay open!!! Whitetail will go first, i do not deny that but lib and RT will most likely try there hardest to hit or come close to being open in april.
skier219
March 12, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Quote:

However, if you look at the overall weather pattern prior to the cold spell and the weather that we're having now, GW appears to be alive and well.

I don't think that we can count on such an unusual cold spell during future ski seasons, but we CAN count on MORE unusual WARM spells. I still believe that we will see a few ski areas within the mid-Atlantic CLOSE within the next 10 to 15 years.





This is ridiculous. You are making a huge and unfounded stretch to tie a short term (or even seasonal) weather pattern to GW. Patterns like these have been around far before human-induced GW could have started. Frankly, I think you are destroying the credibility of the real facts behind GW with bogus "the sky is falling" claims. I believe GW is true, but there is a lot more to it than you seem to understand. Seasonal or pattern weather changes *could* be related to GW, but don't require GW to happen. The only hard data to support GW deals with long term trends, and a season, month, or week of warm/cold deviation from normal (which is merely statistical BTW) has no correlation at this point.

Never mind what could or could not happen in the future; I will have about 24-25 days of wonderful skiing in the mid-atlantic for the 06-07 season. That would appear inconceivable to anyone who went back and read all your posts during the season. If your ramblings over the past few months constitute a short term prediction that failed miserably, I think you'll understand why I think you are not adding any long term credibility to GW with your approach. If anything, it does GW a disservice.
Mountain Masher
March 13, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
skier219, are you ever wrong about my prediction for the Winter of 2006-2007. Meteorological Winter is over and on TV 10 Altoona News tonight, weatherman Joe Murgo gave a review of the past Winter. And, the Winter of 2006-2007 was the 17th warmest Winter on record for Altoona, PA. If you go back and look at my prediction for the Winter, I predicted that the Winter of 2006-2007 would be about 4% warmer than normal at most of the ski areas within the mid-Atlantic. So, it looks like my prediction was right on the mark. Before you go on another one of your CRAZY rants, you might want to get all of your facts straight first.
langleyskier
March 13, 2007
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Quote:

Quote:

This is ridiculous. You are making a huge and unfounded stretch to tie a short term (or even seasonal) weather pattern to GW. Patterns like these have been around far before human-induced GW could have started. Frankly, I think you are destroying the credibility of the real facts behind GW with bogus "the sky is falling" claims. I believe GW is true, but there is a lot more to it than you seem to understand. Seasonal or pattern weather changes *could* be related to GW, but don't require GW to happen. The only hard data to support GW deals with long term trends, and a season, month, or week of warm/cold deviation from normal (which is merely statistical BTW) has no correlation at this point.

Never mind what could or could not happen in the future; I will have about 24-25 days of wonderful skiing in the mid-atlantic for the 06-07 season. That would appear inconceivable to anyone who went back and read all your posts during the season. If your ramblings over the past few months constitute a short term prediction that failed miserably, I think you'll understand why I think you are not adding any long term credibility to GW with your approach. If anything, it does GW a disservice.




Skier 219- Good post, could not have said it better myself. I do "believe" in global warming but the early season warmth we had is unrelated to GW just as much as the later season cold is unrelated to Global Cooling. MM- you ARE destroying your credibility by constantly relating any warmth we have to GW, end of story.

If you look around the region, while it may have been slightly warmer than normal this winter will go down as a great season in the minds of many skiers despite the fact that the early season was disastrous. There has be an enormously long stretch of cold, snow (for the valley), and snowmaking that rivals any cold period in recent history, not for record cold but record long unabated cold. This can also be said for the warm period at the beginning of the season, it was one of the longest warm winter periods that we have experienced in recent years. However, these two events cupeled together made for an ok ski season and tempertures that area-wide are not too far from normal (here is a link to the NCDC winter map. MM- this is what you do if you want to argue your point-- link something to support your words then you will be credible, but until then please stop with the BS.
kwillg6
March 13, 2007
Member since 01/18/2005 🔗
2,034 posts
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

This is ridiculous. You are making a huge and unfounded stretch to tie a short term (or even seasonal) weather pattern to GW. Patterns like these have been around far before human-induced GW could have started. Frankly, I think you are destroying the credibility of the real facts behind GW with bogus "the sky is falling" claims. I believe GW is true, but there is a lot more to it than you seem to understand. Seasonal or pattern weather changes *could* be related to GW, but don't require GW to happen. The only hard data to support GW deals with long term trends, and a season, month, or week of warm/cold deviation from normal (which is merely statistical BTW) has no correlation at this point.

Never mind what could or could not happen in the future; I will have about 24-25 days of wonderful skiing in the mid-atlantic for the 06-07 season. That would appear inconceivable to anyone who went back and read all your posts during the season. If your ramblings over the past few months constitute a short term prediction that failed miserably, I think you'll understand why I think you are not adding any long term credibility to GW with your approach. If anything, it does GW a disservice.




Skier 219- Good post, could not have said it better myself. I do "believe" in global warming but the early season warmth we had is unrelated to GW just as much as the later season cold is unrelated to Global Cooling. MM- you ARE destroying your credibility by constantly relating any warmth we have to GW, end of story.

If you look around the region, while it may have been slightly warmer than normal this winter will go down as a great season in the minds of many skiers despite the fact that the early season was disastrous. There has be an enormously long stretch of cold, snow (for the valley), and snowmaking that rivals any cold period in recent history, not for record cold but record long unabated cold. This can also be said for the warm period at the beginning of the season, it was one of the longest warm winter periods that we have experienced in recent years. However, these two events cupeled together made for an ok ski season and tempertures that area-wide are not too far from normal (here is a link to the NCDC winter map. MM- this is what you do if you want to argue your point-- link something to support your words then you will be credible, but until then please stop with the BS.




Quote:




HUH?
KevR
March 13, 2007
Member since 01/27/2004 🔗
786 posts
All well and good but let's see some real predictions for closing dates -- how does the shortish-term (march/apr) trend look for the area resorts? Anyone care to guess on closing dates for the wt/rt/lib? WIsp, snowshoe?

I was actually toying with the idea of hitting wt or rt some time this weekend, not sure I can make it happen but they seem to have plenty of snow ...

Maybe I can ski in shorts... never done that before!

Ullr
March 13, 2007
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

This is ridiculous. You are making a huge and unfounded stretch to tie a short term (or even seasonal) weather pattern to GW. Patterns like these have been around far before human-induced GW could have started. Frankly, I think you are destroying the credibility of the real facts behind GW with bogus "the sky is falling" claims. I believe GW is true, but there is a lot more to it than you seem to understand. Seasonal or pattern weather changes *could* be related to GW, but don't require GW to happen. The only hard data to support GW deals with long term trends, and a season, month, or week of warm/cold deviation from normal (which is merely statistical BTW) has no correlation at this point.

Never mind what could or could not happen in the future; I will have about 24-25 days of wonderful skiing in the mid-atlantic for the 06-07 season. That would appear inconceivable to anyone who went back and read all your posts during the season. If your ramblings over the past few months constitute a short term prediction that failed miserably, I think you'll understand why I think you are not adding any long term credibility to GW with your approach. If anything, it does GW a disservice.




Skier 219- Good post, could not have said it better myself. I do "believe" in global warming but the early season warmth we had is unrelated to GW just as much as the later season cold is unrelated to Global Cooling. MM- you ARE destroying your credibility by constantly relating any warmth we have to GW, end of story.

If you look around the region, while it may have been slightly warmer than normal this winter will go down as a great season in the minds of many skiers despite the fact that the early season was disastrous. There has be an enormously long stretch of cold, snow (for the valley), and snowmaking that rivals any cold period in recent history, not for record cold but record long unabated cold. This can also be said for the warm period at the beginning of the season, it was one of the longest warm winter periods that we have experienced in recent years. However, these two events cupeled together made for an ok ski season and tempertures that area-wide are not too far from normal (here is a link to the NCDC winter map. MM- this is what you do if you want to argue your point-- link something to support your words then you will be credible, but until then please stop with the BS.




Excellent post by both of you. Here it is in mid-March and all three Virginia ski areas are still 100% open. I remember skiing at 7 Springs during the first week of 2004 and they were on their last legs!!

06/07 got off to a poor start, but went out with a bang.

The idea of GW is just that, GLOBAL, not Mid-Atlantic warming!!!!.

I am off to see my doctor to look at the frost bite damage I got last week in Vermont............................
Mountain Masher
March 13, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
This week's WARM weather and showers will take-down most of the close-in ski areas in a hurry. This weekend will probably be the LAST weekend of legitimate skiing at a number of ski areas. Sure, a few of these areas might be technically open on the 24th, but the skiing will be VERY limited. Given, that the Winter of 2006-2007 was the 17th warmest on record for Central and Western PA (based on a news segment featured on TV 10, Altoona, 3-12-07), I think that we've had an incredible 2nd half of the season.
jimmy
March 13, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
Mountain Masher
March 13, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Remember, I'm talking about the close-in ski areas.
jimmy
March 13, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
Oh, just a case of Regional GW??

Skied 7 Springs Sunday, 3/11. The base there is starting to show some signs of the end being near but what a great day to be on the mountain!
kwillg6
March 13, 2007
Member since 01/18/2005 🔗
2,034 posts
"close in" is a relative description. What are they to be close into?
Mountain Masher
March 13, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I ski 7-S nearly every day if I'm not away on business or on a ski trip. The conditions were really awesome on Sunday; unfortunately, things were starting to get pretty thin in places as of yesterday evening.

To me, close-in means the day-tripper ski areas near the DC/Baltimore area. Of course, depending on your location, close-in can mean adding or dropping a ski area or two.
skier219
March 13, 2007
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Quote:

skier219, are you ever wrong about my prediction for the Winter of 2006-2007. Meteorological Winter is over and on TV 10 Altoona News tonight, weatherman Joe Murgo gave a review of the past Winter. And, the Winter of 2006-2007 was the 17th warmest Winter on record for Altoona, PA. If you go back and look at my prediction for the Winter, I predicted that the Winter of 2006-2007 would be about 4% warmer than normal at most of the ski areas within the mid-Atlantic. So, it looks like my prediction was right on the mark. Before you go on another one of your CRAZY rants, you might want to get all of your facts straight first.




What is this, reverse logic?!? You took the words right out of my mouth backwards.

Statistically, Joe Blo at TV-News in Saskatoon is surely correct. But the statistics are due to well known weather patterns, and there is no proven connection to GW. If you continue to cite any old information to support GW, then you are missing the real fact/science behind this important issue. It's a distraction. Citing random lightweight statistics from the TV news is not helping.

In terms of skiing, I don't think citing statistical facts matters there either -- the winter's overall statistical average (dragged down by the mild early winter) should not be taken as a barometer of the entire ski season. The second half of January was good and February was a killer month. Early March was spectacular, and I had one of the best powder days of my life last week in WV. The coming weekend will bring cold weather and snow to WV. Long term models suggest we will probably have one more cold shot before winter gives it up in early April. It's late winter, and the ups and downs are typical at this point.

The overall statistic that matters to me is how many ski days I get in a season, and I am going to hit my goal this year without too much trouble. I did this by enjoying the good conditions when they were available, not by looking at an overall average or lamenting the bad parts of winter. Most of us had an excellent ski season despite your dire warnings all season, where it became apparent that you take pleasure in sucking the life out of the party. That is my point. So we had a mild early winter and it biased the overall average -- so what? That didn't stop most of us from getting out and having a great season anyway. Any moaning you do now is coming as the party winds down.
Chad
March 13, 2007
Member since 12/12/2000 🔗
270 posts
Quote:

All well and good but let's see some real predictions for closing dates -- how does the shortish-term (march/apr) trend look for the area resorts? Anyone care to guess on closing dates for the wt/rt/lib? WIsp, snowshoe?

I was actually toying with the idea of hitting wt or rt some time this weekend, not sure I can make it happen but they seem to have plenty of snow ...

Maybe I can ski in shorts... never done that before!






NWS now has snow in the Saturday forecast for Whitetail:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?CityName=Mercersburg&state=PA&site=CTP

Probably has something to do with global warming.
KevR
March 13, 2007
Member since 01/27/2004 🔗
786 posts
Snow this weekend would be FABULOUS! It always seemed that we used to get a "late" march snow before spring actually hit this area when I was growing up, which hasn't happened in a LONG TIME.

Probably also due to global warming.
kennedy
March 13, 2007
Member since 12/8/2001 🔗
792 posts
Probably an average end to the ski season. I figure, from looking at my schedule, I've got 1 maybe 2 days left making for a total of about 15 days give or take a few.

This season my one big improvement has been jumps. In particular being comfortable on 35' to 40' booters. I also claimed some rails and boxes. Overall a pretty damn good season. Unfortunately no true full on powder days although Whitetail did deliver a little the weekend after we got back from Utah. Good times overall.
crunchy
March 13, 2007
Member since 02/22/2007 🔗
596 posts
who cares about all the stats... the real measuring stick is how good of a season you have had! Personally, from mid-february thru last week, has been absolutely stellar skiing, and I would be happy to call it a season with the skiing I have done in that one small stretch alone! Ive been very spoiled this year with all the pow days ive had. I often plan trips around snow storms, especially in TL/CV, and hit the jackpot up there 3 times this year! but Ive also been at Liberty on a day they got 4" and it was sweet... Whitetail in mid february where even the man-made snow was impressive to ski in. And hell, TLine still has to have 20" on the way so they can meet their yearly average.

Great season!!! ... so far...
Mountain Masher
March 13, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I hope that I'm wrong, but, based on the way that the base was melting today at 7-S, I don't think that the skiing will be very good this weekend. Most ski areas will need to groom when their bases harden up by the weekend; however, in many spots the bases are going to be too thin for the groomers.
Scott - DCSki Editor
March 14, 2007
Member since 10/10/1999 🔗
1,139 posts
Which is why most resorts make very large piles of snow at the top of the trails, which they use during the spring to patch up bare spots. I was at Whitetail on Friday and they have mountains of packed snow piled up at the tops of the slopes -- in some cases over ten feet tall. Those mounds of snow will be there well into April.

I believe that there will still be plenty of skiable snow on the slopes when resorts close, with the decision (as usual) being based on declining skier visits, and not on the inability for resorts to maintain good conditions. When the days get longer and we get a few warm days, a mental switch flips in peoples' heads and they stop thinking about skiing. (Well, not DCSkiers, of course -- we're a sad bunch that can't stop thinking about skiing year-round!)
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