Canaans worse snow starts to predict future
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fishnski
January 13, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Here is a little read from the Parsons Advocate(Tucker Co,WV) .."According to Canaan weather Watchers,this winter period thru Dec 31st so far ranks #8 among the "Least snowy" periods since records started here in 1944. Dave Lesher noted that,there have been worse years..just 5 years ago 2001 was worse.However despite the slim amounts that fell in these 10 years,WINTER CAME BACK in every case to produce substantial amounts of snow the rest of the season.............I averaged out the worse years to come up with a 96" total. Since 6 of those years the total was added up using the old school method I added 10 to this figure for a 106" ave...Add 4 to be optimistic & then subtract 4 to be realistic(Global warming) ..with 30 so far that means we could get 76 more inches this year. That will make the rest of the winter up there VERY WINTERLIKE!.....Above 4000' could see almost 100 inches more.....MLK Weekend "I had a dream...of 80" more."....Any predicts?
fishnski
January 13, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Just got back in from roller blading in 75 degree weather down here in SE NC..Feels like I never left FL where I spent X-Mas/New years! Its hard to believe that things will finally change. I just read the "Skiing weathermans" latest missive & his predict calls for a good snowy 2nd half for the east...especially the mid to southern Apps because of the fact that the artic push will suppress the moisture to the south. Things are lookin good. I have been paying a lot of weather attention to the 19th thru the 22nd for the Canaan area & things are flip flopping all over the place!.1st I was thinking a little snow from the Lakes would work down for late fri & Sat..& now after CKIng out the 18z gfs & reading the latest F-Cast Disc the talk is of a system from the SW to affect the area....I NEED TO SEE SNOW!..I don't care where it comes from!!
snomonster
January 13, 2007
Member since 04/2/2005 🔗
16 posts
Thanks for the post - I worry for all the businesses there.
Hopefully the cold and snow will come as in the past
Where is the place where all the snow data for past years exists?
jimmy
January 14, 2007
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
kgreener
January 15, 2007
Member since 11/21/2005 🔗
6 posts
highlights from Herb Stevens, The Skiing Weatherman, and his latest snow forecast. A change is coming...get ready!

Herb Stevens, The Skiing Weatherman
Herb's Ski Weather Forecast
Saturday, January 13 2007 @ 11:49 AM

In the mid Atlantic, the cold air is on the way, but it will take until Tuesday before temperatures really settle back to near, or below normal levels. While it will be colder in New York and New England, the mid Atlantic and southern Appalachian resort operators have reason to be excited also, because not only will they be able to resume snowmaking, but the threat of a significant snow event riding along the southern branch will be on the table for the next several weeks, and I expect this region to get a good dose of natural snow between next week and the end of February.

Other winters that have followed this warm first half/dramatic turnaround scenario have, more often than not, been noteworthy for major coastal storms within a couple of weeks of the pattern change, and that is something that I am certainly keeping my eye on.

Yes, I am talking about an extended stay in the cold air for the eastern United States. Again, looking back at years that were similar to what we have witnessed since autumn, a common thread is the degree to which the cold air locked in once it got established. Typically in weak El Nino years, winter rules right through March in the East, and I am looking for that to occur this year. And that includes the central and southern Appalachians, where the deviations from normal are actually greater in the second half of weak El Nino winters than in spots further north.

Your patience is about to be rewarded. The first half of this season has been a sequence of meteorological events that have been totally exasperating, but the end is very near. Make your plans now to ski or ride the next 2 and a half to three months. The snow will be more than worth it very shortly.

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php?story=20070113115244136
fishnski
January 25, 2007
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Well......Where's the Mash?...20 inches in 10 days! By the morn report on the 25th we should have about a 52 inch total(58 more for my 80 inch predict) with a winter storm warning to BOOT! No end in site...we got this party started wrong but we are now partying STRONG! Let it snow..let it Blow..Mother Nature, Way to GO!!!!!!!!!
JohnL
January 25, 2007
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,514 posts
Quote:

Well......Where's the Mash?...20 inches in 10 days!




He'll return when the weather becomes slightly warmer than average in mid February.
Mountain Masher
January 25, 2007
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Looks like some much needed good news for Mid-Atlantic skiing, especially at the higher elevation and PA ski areas. I've skied 7-Springs for the past 2 days and things are really starting to take shape. Today (Wed.) Giant Steps and Gunnar were open with good conditions. However, I was a bit disappointed with how hard the man-made base was (given how cold it's been, I expected it to be a bit lighter). Fortunately, by mid afternoon, the falling snow put down a nice light top-surface. Hopefully, this cold and snowy pattern will last a few more weeks at the very least.
tromano
January 25, 2007
Member since 12/19/2002 🔗
998 posts
MM,

the snow is hard because 7S has been blowing mostly water (with little air). I think its for a few reasons.

#1 Wetter snow is more resiliant and makes a stronger longer lasting base.
#2 Compressors are real energy hogs. Less air = cheaper operation.
JohnL
January 25, 2007
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,514 posts
MM,

I stand corrected.
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