local ski cams empty
December 15, 2006
anyone checked the whitetail or wisp cams lately - im having trouble even finding 1 skier out there!!
its bad...no natural or even ability to make for 5 days, fortunately looking like winter wx will return again by mid next week.
Yeah, it's grim alright. And, the 14 day NWS forecast doesn't look all that great. Although it's going to get colder between now and X-mas, it's not going to be cold enough (at many ski areas) for really good snowmaking conditions. In fact, even during some of the cooler days, it's predicted to get up into the high 30s/low 40s and perhaps rain (or a rain/sleet mix) at several of the close-in and Southern ski areas. It seems that most of the cold air is going to have a hard time making it South of the PA Turnpike (I-76); and, during some of the coming cold snaps, the real frigid air will probably stay North of I-80.
What's interesting is that with all of this warm weather, Accuweather's 90 day forecast map shows everything north of the VA/NC border as having a below average temperature.
Clay
there is still some decent cover out there.... for now - i can only imagine taking off work tomorrow and having any resort virtually to myself!!! ...........just checked timberline - looks like about 3 skiers out there;)
So much for the long range forecasts! In a departure from Accuweather, NOAA's 90 day forecast (due to be updated in a few days) shows above normal temps from up-state NY south through VA. So, go figure; we had just as well flip a coin when attempting to determine the long term weather outlook.
It really amuses me that so many people discuss long range weather predictions on this site. Accuweather, the Weather Channel, NOAA, et al have trouble predicting accurate weather & temperatures 3 days out let alone months in advance. I would love to see the percentage error for weather predictions 3-5 days out. I'm sure it's not good. One can talk about global warming, caterpillars, El Nina, El Nino... no one, and the Rock says no one, knows what is going to happen with the weather. All we have to go by are trends and statistics. And you know what they say about statisticians (there are liars, damn liars, and then statisticians). One is better off spinning a chuck-luck wheel to predict the winter weather months in advance. (If a chuck-luck wheel isn't handy, roll some dice.)
There is no doubt that "warmer" winters have been the norm in Western PA (and the entire Mid-Atlantic) for the last 25 years or so, with every couple of years being the exception. Just what the cause is, we can debate. But I would bet that the good Earth has a way of rectifying things. So this mild December might portend a mild winter to come and we all may have to "suffer" through it. Or quite possibly a major Alberta clipper might push through at the end of the month, and we might not see the freezing point for a high temperature until mid-March. My point is that no one knows, but it sure is fun to talk about it.
I agree that none of them seem to have a great idea of whats going to happen but with weather we are talking about such a fluid nebulous system that at the best of times it's hard to predict what it will do. My only hope is that this warm weather stops the great lakes from freezing too early allowing for massive lake effect in january. Yeah I know it's unlikely bu there's no rule against dreaming. In the meantime I'll dig the mountainboard back out and put my new rack on the car.
not a soul in sight........http://www.skiwisp.com/winter_northcamp_webcams.htm
Just a reminder, remember last December. Early in that month-- cold temperatures, lots of snow. With a great start and high anticipation, I expected great conditions for the remainder of the season. Frankly, IMHO, the best skiing last year occurred prior to Christmas. With all the freeze-thaw cycles that occurred after Christmas, all I can remember skiing on (with possibly 1 or 2 exceptions) was ice or slush.
So let's hope for a reversal this year.
I agree....despite all of the advances in technology, it's next to impossible to predict the weather, especially during the Winter. But, like you said, the OVERALL trend is towards mild Winters. So if I were to bet that it's going to be warmer than normal (versus normal or colder than normal) over several different periods of time (during a number of Winters), I'd probably be correct more that 33% of the time. That's about all we can be reasonably certain of at this point when it comes to the weather.
Last year was awesome before the holidays then sucked for the whole month of January. Although that said I still had a number of powder days here so I can't complain too much.
Does anyone think the resorts are sorry for making all that snow and now no one is showing up??? If that base doesnt last - how much $$$$ did they just blow (no pun intended)
make sure you all go skiing this weekend!!!
I have always wanted to know EXACTLEY how much it does cost them to blow snow....Ok..There is a Rocket Man out there that knows the answer.....How much does it cost a ski area to blow enough snow to open an average size slope top to bottom with a 900 vert drop?......I don't want any fuzzy math...give us the straight scoop!
When it comes to making snow, there are a number of variables that impact the cost. To name a few: The type of guns that are used (airless fan guns or guns that require compressed air). How far the water has to be pumped and, if it is pumped uphill, over how many vertical feet. If air compressors are used, how many must be turned on in order to run enough guns to make snow along the length of a major ski slope. And, should the temp be mild and/or humidity high, more air pressure is needed. Also, some ski areas have to pay the electric company a peak-demand charge if too many compressors and/or airless guns are operated at once. Also, the newer the compressors, the more efficient they are. In conclusion, let me just say that it costs A LOT of money to make snow. In fact, I've seen one ski area (which shall remain unnamed) run it's guns (of the type that require both water and air) with water only so as to avoid having to turn on their air compressor, and thus save lots of money. If the temp gets below 15, you can make a poor quality, icy snow running water only through a long-arm style air/water gun, although it's not recommended.
Thanks for your FUZZY math response Dr. Snow Diablo...Ok..Next?.......Oh..Dr Diablo,Will I catch any fish this weekend since global warming seems to be in my favor?
Sorry about all of the FUZZY math; but, as you can tell, the HIGH costs of snowmaking can vary quite a bit. By the way, I would think that the fishing might be OK right now since the water temps are still relatively warm.
Gotta luv ya Brother..I Mean Dr Snow Diablo!
As stupid as it might sound, this weather actually might be profitable for a resort like Hidden Valley. A great portion of their revenue is season pass sales...then they have to spread that revenue over the season making snow, running lifts and paying employees.
Right now, aside from the cost of making the bit of snow they did two weeks ago, they basically have no operating costs. Its not even cold enough to consider making snow, so they are incurring no cost there and not really paying employees to be there either.
Of course, if it never gets cold this winter, season pass sales (which were supposedly up this year) will plummet next year. But in the short term, they would be laughing all the way to the bank if it stays mild all winter. And this hypothesis is pretty specific to HV, since they do not generate a lot of day ticket sales through the season.
