The Skiing Weatherman's latest report
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18 users
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Taylormatt
November 26, 2006
Member since 12/3/2004 🔗
339 posts
skier219
November 26, 2006
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
It's going to be an interesting few weeks, that's for sure...
catskills
November 26, 2006
Member since 06/29/2004 🔗
53 posts
Rough start this year for the North East Snow Sports. Belleayre, Hunter, and Windham are opened in the Catskills.
Ullr
November 26, 2006
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
Yea, last season had a great start then died out. A slow start may be what we need. I'm sure not going to panic yet, we are due for a big winter!
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johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
November 26, 2006
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,923 posts
When he says this year is shaping up similar to 2002, that's a good thing. I went through the news archive for 2002-03 and was pleasantly surprised by what I read--this was a good season for the Mid-Atlantic and an excellent December/January.
comprex
November 26, 2006
Member since 04/11/2003 🔗
1,326 posts

In 2002 we had
- a snowstorm with enough to XC ski on from Rockville to Georgetown
- some rather infamous avalanches on Mt. Washington. We are at the 4th anniversary, in fact.

PS I suspect the upper level trough he mentions is related to this:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs072hr_500_tmp.gif notice the -35 F

and Z-anomaly:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs072hr_500_del.gif
Taylormatt
November 26, 2006
Member since 12/3/2004 🔗
339 posts
2002 was a pretty good snow year. I had more boot top pow days than I can remember that year. It seemed like a storm blew in nearly every weekend. Nothing huge, but 10+ on a regular basis. I believe 7S's total capped out at something like 205", 100" above average. Isn't that the year that VT had to truck plowed snow out of the resorts for lack of room to pile it up?

I think we also had a blizzard that year that dropped something like ~23" here. All I remember is 24 hours of plowing to keep up with it.
gizmosnow
November 26, 2006
Member since 10/6/2005 🔗
269 posts
If you check out accuweather.com Weather Videos -- Winter Forecast 06/07, they are also predicting a great ski winter for this area. Colder than normal temps, 125% - 150% above normal snowfall. No January warmup unlike last year.
tromano
November 26, 2006
Member since 12/19/2002 🔗
998 posts
I don't really see any more resorts opening until 2nd weekend of Dec.
queenoftheslopes
November 27, 2006
Member since 11/15/2004 🔗
143 posts
oooh. Maybe I will get snow for a birthday present!!
Mountain Masher
December 1, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Here's the outlook for this ski season. Temps will average about 2% above normal (based on the 30 year average) in the Wash. DC area and temps will average about 4% above normal at most of the mid-Atlantic ski areas. And, as far as snowfall goes, I look for it to be about 10% to 15% below normal (in most areas) since it's going to be a shorter than normal Winter. Keep in mind that last Winter's temps averaged 8% above normal, so this ski season should be much better than last season.
jb714
December 1, 2006
Member since 03/4/2003 🔗
294 posts
Quote:

Here's the outlook for this ski season.




Whose outlook, and an outlook based on what ?
JR
December 1, 2006
Member since 01/1/2003 🔗
276 posts
I wonder if we can give negative stars?
fishnski
December 1, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
A negative Star is a Black Hole! Give the Masher 1 big Black Hole!
Mountain Masher
December 1, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
My outlook is based on 3 things: 1) We've had a mild Nov.; 2/3 of the time a mild Nov. is followed by a mild Winter. 2) We're under a moderate El Nino; unlike weak El Ninos, moderate El Ninos usually result in somewhat milder than normal Winters. 3) NOAA continues to call for a mild Winter in the Ohio Valley and much of the mountains of the Mid-Atlantic. It should be noted that NOAA was calling for a mild Winter before the El Nino became apparent. Anyway, "negative" stars or not, that's what I see. I hope that you-all can find a way to give me lots of negative stars; anything to stand apart from some of the GOOF BALLs on this forum would be just fine with me!
skier219
December 2, 2006
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
Only time will tell who is right, but I like Herb's explanation. My experience suggests that an oscillatory pattern in the fall will lead to a deeper winter than normal. And so far, this fall's weather has been up and down big time. I think we may see at least one more "up", but not as extreme as this past week. Ski resorts should be able to weather it no problem.
snowsmith - DCSki Supporter
December 2, 2006
Member since 03/15/2004 🔗
1,359 posts
Let's all take up a collection to get the Masher some Prozac. We may also want to provide him with the suicide hotline phone number. It's nice to have some contrarian opinions, but man you a such a downer. Check out the winter forcast on Inaccu-Weather? It says colder than normal and more precip than normal. I'd bet a wooly bear catepillar knows more about weather forcasting than you. So let's just say that your call for the winter weather is an option based on your gloomy personality and leave it at that. We GOOF BALLS will be out skiing while you're reading your barometer and predicting doom.
langleyskier
December 2, 2006
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
MM- you do realize that a moderate El Nino is very good for the mid-atlantic in terms of snowfall and that a departure of 2%, as you say, is far too exact and impossible to forecast.
langleyskier
December 2, 2006
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
I think that 10% of DCski donations should go towards a fund to send MM to somewhere warm and sunny so he can be a little more cheerful
Ullr
December 2, 2006
Member since 11/27/2004 🔗
531 posts
Quote:

I think that 10% of DCski donations should go towards a fund to send MM to somewhere warm and sunny so he can be a little more cheerful




I was thinking of getting him a chainsaw and a season pass to Blue Knob............
jb714
December 2, 2006
Member since 03/4/2003 🔗
294 posts
Quote:

Let's all take up a collection to get the Masher some Prozac. We may also want to provide him with the suicide hotline phone number. It's nice to have some contrarian opinions, but man you a such a downer. Check out the winter forcast on Inaccu-Weather? It says colder than normal and more precip than normal. I'd bet a wooly bear catepillar knows more about weather forcasting than you. So let's just say that your call for the winter weather is an option based on your gloomy personality and leave it at that. We GOOF BALLS will be out skiing while you're reading your barometer and predicting doom.




LMAO - could not have said it better myself.

He's just trolling, trying to get a nibble out of us so as to start another global warming debate. I think if he had car trouble he'd find a way to blame it on global warming.
fishnski
December 2, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Thats too freakin funny Ullr!!...We need a song-video or some..thing made up on the Mashman!...Whats the song..Monstermash? Does it work for the masher?...It's a sNOw brainer!
Roger Z
December 2, 2006
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Is this "Dr. Marsh"... or Dr. "Mash" ???

Dang, MM just posted before I could update this to get rid of the global warming bias. Well, here's a very cute commercial from WWF about global warming . So don't say this is pro or anti-global warming, I'm just pro-good-clips-on-you-tube!
Mountain Masher
December 2, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
You-all are too much! All I did was come up with a Winter outlook that basically reflects NOAA's long range Winter forecast, and several of you went BONKERS! So, why don't you-all contact NOAA and go crazy on them too! Anyway, please keep it up cause I'm loving every minute of it. Now, back to the weather, it finally looks like we're going to have some good snowmaking temps. Not real cold, but at least a bit below normal for awhile. In fact, it looks like the temps will stay at or a bit below normal for the rest of the year, which should lead to a solid if unspectacular ski season. However, once we get beyond the 3rd week in Jan., the odds of having some mild weather will start to increase. At least that's what NOAA has projected.
SeaRide
December 2, 2006
Member since 03/11/2004 🔗
237 posts
"Ignore this user" option is really an awesome feature. Try it you might like it.
JR
December 2, 2006
Member since 01/1/2003 🔗
276 posts
But if we "ignore this user" how will we all know to be depressed about how bad the season might be based on high tech fractions and stuff. I mean I don't want to blindly go into this season with a positive attitude. That would just be crazy.

Besides, if everyone "ignored this user" Blue Knob might have been packed full of optimistic skiers last year when i made it up there for those great conditions I happened upon. Maybe if we're lucky, other people won't "ignore this user" and fear of global warming and the end of mid atlantic skiing will drive second home prices down and those of us who do "ignore this user" can blindly jump on the great deals and finally own that condo at Timberline or Snowshoe that we've always wanted. hmm
Mountain Masher
December 3, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
I don't know if it's due to global warming, but, at present, most of the ski areas in Europe are dealing with a lack of snow and mild temps. Fortunately, this pattern seems to have been offset by cold temps and snow over much of North America.
fishnski
December 3, 2006
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Well CO has the cold & snow thusfar...Your ski session at Vail this morn would begin with 8 below actual temps! Kremmling,Co is reporting 17 below at this hour...thats some cold powder!
dmh
December 3, 2006
Member since 12/11/2003 🔗
127 posts
I think we should leave global warming--causes and effects--to people who know what they are talking about. You cannot prove, or disprove, global warming based on weather in any particular location. That is why they call it climate change, not weather change. Global warming is about aggregate changes in the earth's climate manifest by long-term changes in the atmosphere and concomitant changes in glaciers, oceans, and temperatures. MM trying to attribute a 2% change in this winter's temps in the Mid-Atlantic makes no more sense than others who post here pointing at heavy snow in Colorado disproving broad climate change.

We are talking about weather, not climate. The Skiing Weatherman is forecasting weather, not climate.
SeaRide
December 3, 2006
Member since 03/11/2004 🔗
237 posts
JR .. relax it's okay if you don't like the "ignore this user" feature. No need to panic or run your imagination that far. We do welcome all negative/positive posts.
catskills
December 3, 2006
Member since 06/29/2004 🔗
53 posts
Chill - snow is moving South and will be in the DC area soon enough.

Hunter Mtn Pic

Mount Snow Cam
Mountain Masher
December 5, 2006
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
There's still warm weather and very little snow in the mountains of Europe; in fact there's been a couple of blips about it on the Drudge Report. At one location they had to haul snow in by truck (from a higher elevation) to prepare for a World Cup race. The reason why I mention this is that it's a postive sign for cold weather and snow at most US ski areas. More times than not, when it's warm in Europe it's cold on our side of the globe.
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