MLK Storm Predictions
January 17, 2006
29 posts
19 users
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Setup for this weekend is interesting with Saturday looking like a Gore-tex kind of day with heavy precip and high winds. My favorite Weather.com quote from this afternoon's updated forecast: "Rain will change to heavy accumulating snow across West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and western New York and then from the Pocono Mountains to Maine Saturday night and Sunday..." I love the sound of that "HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWS" aaaaah.....
Latest inaccuweather map shows nice 6-12" band through WVA and Western PA:
Updated Snowfall Map (as of 1/12 @ 1400) NWS is holding its cards close right now.
Cross your fingers/not your tips and MLK may turn out all right afterall - whatever the outcome it sure beats staying home and getting rained on all weekend (forecast for NVA area).
Tom
Disclaimer: the opinions expressed in this post are solely those of the poster, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Snowtime Resorts, Intrawest, Timberline Four Seasons Resort, West Virginia State Park Authority, Blue Knob All Seasons Resort, or the EPA. This poster is not a paid employee or agent of any of the above entities. These are certified as only opinions and are made in sound mind under as few self-induced delusions as possible - your results may vary).
Tom:
Thanks for that rept. I'm going to make my decision to head to the LINE at the very last minute, which is usually how I do it.
I think this is a good setup for the WV highlands. The elevation will help the changeover come quickly, and then there appears to be a good period of wrap-around upslope snow. I'm guessing the best snows here will be from around noon on Saturday until midnight. Six to twelve inches seems reasonable, and the odds of that being too high are about the same that it is not high enough.
Heck, at this point, they've got winter storm watches out as far south as Gatlinburg, and are forecasting as much as 8 inches of snow along the TN/NC border. Which means the storm is bound to fizzle...
That's right, Nature, we're not expecting anything! Drizzle, maybe a light snow flurry in Macon Georgia just to really stick it to us. Nothing will come of it. We all might as well just go visit Andy in Wilmington and fish for a while, because it's gonna be dry, and warm, and rainy all weekend long.
(do you think that will fool the snow gods?)
I gotta give credit to our local NWS forecaster here in Blacksburg. He's been calling for snow this weekend for over a week, even when all the other weather services were calling for rain and temps in the 50's.
Of course it hasn't happened yet. (wood knocked on, sacrifice given)
What makes this interesting is not a soul is calling for a flake out of the DC stations. All I heard was Bob Ryan making a comment in passing about some light snow in the mountains for the MLK skiers this weekend. Yet some maps I've seen show a snowline deviating into Hardy Co meaning we should see a few inches. I'm just going to get out my shorts and mountain bike and until it actually does snow, then the proof will be in the pudding. Till then, snow...what snow?
This storm is touch and go. Latest forecasts (as of 6AM) trending back towards later changeover and lighter precip. We'll see - CV seems to make its own weather to some degree. Temps should get plenty cold enough for snow making - will they blow? Sunday looks to be a fine ski day though. I'll take whatever comes in stride and follow the mantra of MA Skiing - Ski in all conditions! hooha!
In my limited exposure to "inaccuweather.com", they consistently predict excessive amounts of snowfall which 9 times out of 10 is dead wrong. Usually the snow totals are well lower than predicted, and sometimes it doesn't even snow at all. If cold weather was in place already, then predictions are usually much better. Given that a significant temperature transition needs to take place (which means timing is everything), I think the only accurate forecast will be looking out one's window.
I just checked NOAA's website and this is what they are predicting:
Snowshoe - Sat. 4-6"
Davis - Sat. 1-3"
Seven Springs - Sat. less than 1"
Hopefully they're wrong and we get 3x's that much.
If the Valley gets the big dump, I'll be there Sunday am.
in my 4 years going to tline i have noticed one thing. whatever they say for davis can a lot of times be X 3+ closer to tline. even though it isnt that far away there weather can definately be different. i have been driving there and davis will have flurries and upon cresting the hill on 32 before exxon it is a whiteout. not saying this will be the case each time but weather along that strip is quite quirky to say the least.
GLASS IS HALF FULL
Quote:
GLASS IS HALF FULL
- Always half full!
The NOAA website does not recognize Canaan Valley as a place or city. Davis is the closest place to the Valley that the NOAA website has forecasts for.
Keep your fingers crossed!
NOAA does not do a good job (IMHO) of forecasting for mountainous areas. I'm willing to bet that their forecast for Seven Springs is a lot more accurate for Champion (1400 feet lower than the top of the lifts) than it is for Seven Springs. There can be a big difference between Champion and the top of the lifts.
Quote:
A cold front will move into the area Sunday morning followed by unstable northwest flow through Sunday night. Potential total snow accumulations of 2 feet or more Saturday night through Monday morning.
Alta. 
Quote:
in my 4 years going to tline i have noticed one thing. whatever they say for davis can a lot of times be X 3+ closer to tline. even though it isnt that far away there weather can definately be different. i have been driving there and davis will have flurries and upon cresting the hill on 32 before exxon it is a whiteout. not saying this will be the case each time but weather along that strip is quite quirky to say the least.
GLASS IS HALF FULL
Yes!!! You can have VASTLY different snow totals within the valley itself. 1 inch in the valley can mean 4 inches on the mountain because most of the valley snow blows towards Timberline. Chip Chase knows this fact very well and that's how he survives. His snow fences can turn 1 inch into a bountiful harvest.
just called tline realty and spoke with Rene. she said that the locals are calling for 2-12+. all depends but they are leaning towards the latter. i am heading up round 3 today from virginia. fingers/toes crossed. worst case scenario i get a few turns in and get drunk watching skins play at timbers.
either way.....snow or no snow i still love the place
Quote:
NOAA does not do a good job (IMHO) of forecasting for mountainous areas. I'm willing to bet that their forecast for Seven Springs is a lot more accurate for Champion (1400 feet lower than the top of the lifts) than it is for Seven Springs. There can be a big difference between Champion and the top of the lifts.
Actually the NOAA forcast is for Latrobe. Use Somerset for a more accurate forecast.
My prediction:
DCA: Trace
Me: 2"
Snowshoe: 16"
T-Line: 11"
Sugar Mtn: 14"
Roanoke: Trace
Wintergreen: 5"
Im under a high wind waring as well. Gusts to 65
. And sustained of 35 to 45. Straight from weatherbug. This will be one hell of an upslope, as well as drifting event. Possibly the most upslope influenced storm we see this season. Cant wait to hit Snowshoe monday. Skipping classes, thank God there are no exams.
Oh ill add this- Snowshoe will see 3-4' drifts as well.
And remember, this will end up being the crappiest winter ever according to some
Man if your predictions pan out you will indeed be the SNOWMAKER! NWS is only predicting 2 to 4 up at the valley...Accuhypeweather is going with 6 to 10....Wuzzz Uppp?
Last call at 5pm for wxrisk calls for 4 to 8
So we drove up to Wintegreen about an hour ago, and it was rainy and warmish for most of the drive, but as we drove up the mountain it all turned to snow. Snow seems to be sticking, and it's very white everywhere! I would have never expected this, given the forecasts..
Quote:
The NOAA website does not recognize Canaan Valley as a place or city. Davis is the closest place to the Valley that the NOAA website has forecasts for.
Keep your fingers crossed!
Actually, you can get a reliable Valley forecast from www.weather.gov by entering Canaan Hgts, WV.
Quote:
So we drove up to Wintegreen about an hour ago, and it was rainy and warmish for most of the drive, but as we drove up the mountain it all turned to snow. Snow seems to be sticking, and it's very white everywhere! I would have never expected this, given the forecasts..
It's hard to get a good forecast for that area. Their own website showed a high of 43 today and it's 23 right now (2pm).
Wintergreen Weather
Even the forecast they give on the link above doesn't usually jive with the real time measurements
With the past storm, Is there anyone who can give me a report/summary of what I should expect at good ol 4848' tomorrow? Skipping classes for what SHOULD be an awesome day out there. High of 38, low of 19. Im interested in what the crowds should be like. Since this past weekend was the actual MLK weekend, will MLKD be just as crowded, or will everyone be in school and at work? Thanks.
If you guys happen to run Mac OS X, I have a shareware weather program that gives a forecast pinpointed by latitude/longtude. If you know the lat/lon of a particular ski area, it should give a pretty good forecast. It pulls the data from the NWS digital forecast database (basically a bg 3D dataset of future weather).
Craig
I can't predict the crowds for you, but the weather and snow ought to be awesome tomorrow!
Snowmakers: I am up at Timberline, and the crowds have been very light here all weekend. Some brief lines yesterday; otherwise, looks like any old weekend here. My past experience with three-day weekends here has been that crowds are typically very light on Monday as people tend to have early checkouts and get back on the road before lunch. Some groups may stick around until lunch, and its usually empty up here by noon. Can't say what SS will be like today - but I would suspect it won't be too bad.
Tom
You guys at tline and snowshoe are spoiled. The other half goes to winterplace and endures hurricane force winds. but the conditions and crowds were not too bad.
a trip report for yesterday (sunday.jan.15) with pics is on the skinc board at...
http://www.skinc.com/messageboard/viewtopic.php?t=4000
Just getting back from the Valley & it looks like WXrisk was the winner. I got about 6 inches sat & almost an inch sun(surprise!) just south of the valley at 2900'.Seemed to get more than the valley this time around. The sunday event we had light snow till about 230pm with 0 breaks in the clouds...ran up to the Canaan stores for something & was surprised by the sunshine...the wierd thing was that the whole 10 min i was there with bright sunshine it didn't stop snowing!Getting back to Sat We had to weave our way around spunout tour busses.The rain turned to snow around 430 to 5AM ..Much earlier than NWS predictions....Skied Canaan area sun with great conditions but with only 2/3 of the Mtn open.The west side with all the meadows Ect were roped off. They ran just 1 lift to the top, so with all the rookies going along for the ride to the Timbers run the lift was constantly stopping.That was frusterating & a little cold...a lot colder than any F-cast i might add,But it gave us a chance to really soak up an extremely beautiful mtn....PS the view from Canaan valley stores looking up to Canaan ski area & Wiess Knob & To my surprise, The top of Mount Porte crayon to the right side is about as as nice .....well you cannot compare..its just Canaan!....& then leaving the valley to the south & seeing the splender of the big boys unfold...well its just so friggin special....I sure hope there is no Global Warming to spoil the icing on the cake!
T-line was awesome on Monday. The snow was great and I waited no longer than 5 minutes to get on the lift. It was also my first time getting to ski Twister and I must say that I was impressed (except for the flat at the end). My only complaint is that OTW was closed most of the day.
