Big storm next week???
41 posts
17 users
8k+ views
langleyskier
February 24, 2005
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Theres been alot of talk about a major storm at the begining of next week. What are everyone's thoughts on this storm?

Right now all the weather sorces (noaa, accuweather, weather channel) are reporting a possibility of rain/snow for mon, and tus and some places also wed. I think this is just a sign that they have no clue what it will be so they cant be totaly wrong if they say rain and snow. But talking to some people it looks like if it is all snow this could be the bg storm of the season!!!
VolklYokel
February 24, 2005
Member since 02/20/2005 🔗
14 posts
One of my favorite web resources for tracking what the atmosphere is doing is the RAMSDIS polar water vapor loop.

In looking at it this morning, you'll see that there is a little counter-clockwise looping thing over Arizona. This is the left overs from the system that gave Southern Cal it's rain earlier this week. Right now, its just kind of sitting there, spinning, without much direction.

If the bends in the southern jet slip eastward, and the northern jet strengthens (in how it dives down from Canada), it can add energy to that little Arizona gyre. As the gyre slowly moves eastward, if a portion of it crosses over the Gulf of Mexico, it will start feeding-in moisture and build into a sizable storm, centered over southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Storms that originate in this area tend to give us those 1 to 2 foot drops.

Then the question comes, how will the jets help to steer the beast (if it becomes one)? If the bends in the southern jet continues to slip eastward, then the storm will pass to our south. If the bend stays in place, across Alabama and Georgia, it could send the storm our way. The northern jet will insure that we stay cold enough to get snow.

Check RAMSDIS every day and see how it plays out. And no, I'm not a meteorologist.
Snowmakers
February 24, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
I too am liking the situation. The weather channel has just changed our forecast for sunday and monday to snow.

This is what Herb Stevens has to say:


Mid Atlantic snow on Thursday...




Weather discussion 2/23/05

If you don't get out and enjoy the snow in the eastern part of the country, you're nuts!!!! I had to get that off my chest right away. The conditions are out of this world in eastern Pennsylvania, New York and New England, following the President's Day storm, plus a trailing impulse that produced snow on Tuesday in many of the same areas that got hit on Monday. Not only were the snow totals solid...a general 6-12 inches at most areas...many places in northern New England got snow the consistency of champagne powder! Temperatures are comfortable this week, so make the most of it!

As for the future...the pattern is a very active and energetic one, to say the least. The anchor trough off California has sent out another batch of energy and it will form a low in the southern plains today, and that low will head east northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic coast. It will encounter the base of the upper level trough that is sitting over the eastern third of the country, and that upper level trough will help to strengthen the surface system. The result will be one of the better snowfalls in the mid-Atlantic region this winter. Earlier this week I mentioned that the core of the accumulating snows would be about 150 miles south of the President's Day event, and that will be pretty close to true, although if we're splitting hairs, (which I can ill afford to do!), I guess the centerline might be closer to 20- miles further south. I'll use Interstate 66 as my centerline for maximum snow from this system. I-66 runs west out of D.C., over toward Front Royal, VA. Most of Virginia, West Virginia, and up to extreme southern Pennsylvania should see 4-8 inches from this storm, with lighter amounts in the rest of PA. Southern New York and southern New England will see an inch or two, with a little more on the beaches...what a waste of snow that is!!! In the mountains of North Carolina, a mixed mess of precipitation types will end as an inch or two of snow.

In the west, the resorts of southern California continue to get absolutely bombed with snow, with snow levels around 5500 feet or so. Moisture has reached far enough north the past two days to produce a moderate snowfall in the Tahoe region, as well. The passing east of energy from the California trough means that the next several days will continue to be snowy in the mountains of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as Utah and Colorado, particularly in the southern portions of those two states.

Once the eastern storm moves offshore, colder air will follow the system, so look for packed powder to rule all the way down the Appalachians this weekend. Another northern branch system will spread light snow into New York and New England over the weekend, and right now that doesn't look to big to me...1-3 inches of topdressing ought to do it.

Next week, as I suggested in my Sunday discussion, I think that the threat of a major east coast storm next week is a real one. Energy from the west trough would once again move east, but this time, a short wave in the northern branch would "phase" with the southern low, and the result would be a much stronger surface system, one which form in the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend and then head up the east coast. Right now, I would favor a track that hugs the coast, which would mean snow to rain in the major cities, but heavy snow inland, particularly in the Appalachians, from North Carolina northward. If the low stays too close to the coast, it could eventually mean a track over part of New England, which would imply a changeover to rain for a portion of the storm that far north. On the backside, the upper low will remain over the east, and it will have swallowed the polar vortex, which would mean a very cold week in much of the region, once the surface low moves away. It would also mean another late season outbreak of lake effect snow off of Erie and Ontario.

In the longer range, it appears to me that the upper level trough is going to remain over the east until further notice, and I also believe that the upper low off California is going to be re-energized after a lull of several days in SOCAL. Having those two players on the table suggests that any major storm in the east next week probably isn't the last one of that breed. With the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) looking as though it will remain very strong in the foreseeable future, I can say with some confidence that winter weather will dominate in the east through much of March. Let me remind you once again, that this winter is playing out in a fashion typical of weak El Nino's...back loaded snow and cold in the East...something I alluded to back in November. With longer days, higher sun angles, and glorious snow likely to hold for several weeks, make your skiing and riding plans now...cuz you sure ain't going to play golf any time soon!!!





I love to see all the golfers and spring lovers suffer !
Roger Z
February 24, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Unfortunately, I went cynical on the forecasts a month ago and all my cynicism has been proven in spades with the last few "snowfalls." My call is that whatever materializes won't be half of what they said it was. Weathermen should start paying attention to seasonal trends more. That said, I'm looking forward to being proven wrong someday... next week would be fine!
DCSki Sponsor: Massanutten Resort
Mountain Masher
February 24, 2005
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Me too! I hope that by next week my scepticism about the weather forecasts will be proven wrong and we'll have some great skiing in March!
Snowmakers
February 24, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
I really dont need to say anything. Just look at this;






Ladies and gentlemen, would you look at this. The perfect setup for a big winter storm. It is not often that the atmosphere develops this look, so you can imagine all the excitement that has existed in the AccuWeather.com forecasting center today. What will happen is that two branches of the jet stream will merge late in the weekend, a signature of all great storms. This allows cold air from the north to come in direct contact with mild, moist air to the south, and the result is often explosive storm development. There will probably be two storm centers at first: one crossing the Midwest, the other starting out in the Gulf of Mexico. Later Monday and Tuesday, the storms are likely to merge over the Northeast forming one giant circulation. You may want to pay close attention to this one. It could be a whopper.





Ahhh
Roger Z
February 24, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Not everyone's winter has been terrible. If we were skiing in NJ, apparently we'd be doing fine. From an AP report about the storm that YET AGAIN missed Blacksburg (today's storm- I understand it got DC pretty well):

"The forecast amounts would push 2004-05 snowfall totals past the seasonal average in most places in New Jersey. "

Wonder how New England and Upstate New York are doing. Jay was clocking in at 224 inches last week, which might be a little below normal for them, but not nearly as much as we are.
Swimmer
February 24, 2005
Member since 02/3/2005 🔗
143 posts
I predict your storm next week shall be EPIC!!!

My sister in law is moving from Hawaii to Alexandria (I know, seems weird, but it's all good) and I am flying out on Saturday for a couple of weeks. Granted, I'll be skiing, but I still hate to miss a good local snowstorm.

With these two factors both culimating over the weekend just lends itself to a most epic snowstorm. I suggest you all get your gear tuned up and start calling out sick from work. I bet you see at least a foot.

Steve
bawalker
February 24, 2005
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
LaPlata, MD was clocked in with 7+ inches today at NBC4's 5:20 weather cast. It seems that the stretch from say... Staunton, VA, across to Fredricksburg, VA and through southern MD got hit the hardest. Here at my house we are in at 3"-4", Winchester, VA is about 4" and points northward like Hagerstown got 3 or less.
SkiBumMSP
February 24, 2005
Member since 12/8/2004 🔗
224 posts
Quote:

It seems that the stretch from say... Staunton, VA, across to Fredricksburg, VA and through southern MD got hit the hardest.




This is what I woke up to this morning here in Fredericksburg. Yeah, I guestimate a good 6 inches was on my car when I just went outside to clean it off (only afterwards to get a call the bowling was indeed cancalled tonight).



twin58
February 24, 2005
Member since 04/1/2000 🔗
198 posts
>>
Theres been alot of talk about a major storm at the begining of next week. What are everyone's thoughts on this storm?
<<

I'm strongly in favor. Thank you for asking.
bawalker
February 24, 2005
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
I wonder if I call next weeks storm a big bust now... so that yet again I'll be wrong and it'll dump 3' on us?
bawalker
February 24, 2005
Member since 12/1/2003 🔗
1,547 posts
Snowmakers
February 25, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Well i'm putting out my first map for this storm. Too early for totals. Just precip type. I will put out 1 more precip type map this weekend then a totals forecast late sunday.
This map shows the DC area on the line between almost all snow and about 2/3 snow. You should expect many variations in amount forecast among sources as you in the DC are are so close to that rain line. This will primarily be an inland storm- unless the low tracks offshore a bit more.
So its like a take your pick; Snow for the resorts or snow in your backyard. Tough decision.





Keep in mind that im not a pro at this. But ive watched alot of storms and their charitaristics come and go. The main factor will be how far the low goes offshore. The heavy snow stripe will go whichever way the low pressure goes (east and west).
langleyskier
February 25, 2005
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
That map shows all rain for boston. Its about time they dont get snow and we do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My dad has a masters in meteorology from Penn State and he and i are definitely watching this storm closely. His favorite forecasting model shows that the upper atmosphere would be plenty cold enough to bring us all snow and the water equivalent would be about one inch. However, i cant say i would totally trust the models this far in advanced. All we know that there is a good potential for some major snow amounts.
tomimcmillar
February 25, 2005
Member since 11/21/2004 🔗
129 posts
I hope ya'll realize this.....

but, you're putting a HUGE jinx on this one.
Jim
February 25, 2005
Member since 11/22/1999 🔗
317 posts
It'll be rain - cold, useless, do-no-good rain.
kennedy
February 25, 2005
Member since 12/8/2001 🔗
792 posts
I hate to break it to you but I think it is going to be a huge wash out. I think this is the season ender right here. Coming into March, big rain dump, eroded base and bare spots. Lets call this up down season dead. Overall it was a pretty disappointing season and I doubt that it will pull anything out of the bag now.
Snowmakers
February 25, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Well the temps are already in place for the mountains. Its just a matter of how strong the low pressure gets as to how much snow the resorts receive. Yes, Washington may see some rain, but The forecast temps for monday and tuesday are already too cold for rain in the mountains.
JohnL
February 25, 2005
Member since 01/6/2000 🔗
3,514 posts
<Reverse Karma>

Not only will this upcoming washout of a rainstorm end the worst ski season in the history of mankind, it will force me to give up this miserable sport completely. I think I'll take up something exciting like golf.

</Reverse Karma>
tromano
February 25, 2005
Member since 12/19/2002 🔗
998 posts
Quote:

<Reverse Karma>

Not only will this upcoming washout of a rainstorm end the worst ski season in the history of mankind, it will force me to give up this miserable sport completely. I think I'll take up something exciting like golf.

</Reverse Karma>




I for one am looking to opening day baseball at RFK!!! now thats an exciting sport that really get the heart pumping.
wgo
February 25, 2005
Member since 02/10/2004 🔗
1,336 posts
Quote:


I for one am looking to opening day baseball at RFK!!! now thats an exciting sport that really get the heart pumping.




While I agree with the intent and spirit of these posts, please don't go busting on baseball!
kennedy
February 25, 2005
Member since 12/8/2001 🔗
792 posts
I say we preclaim this season dead, someone put it down it's already suffering and in a lot of pain.

Yahtzee anyone????
Snowmakers
February 25, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
I dont see how you guys can even think of this seasons end. Theres still this week and all of march to go. We normally get our biggest storms in march. If it was march and we were this low on snowfall; yes- the season would be dead. And besides, the seasons not done unbtil ALL of the resorts close. In case you dont remember, last year it snowed into April.





Only the Southwest will enjoy decent weather next week. Elsewhere, the setup does not look very friendly at all. A better way to describe things is formidable. As the jet stream plunges southward, the weather in the East will be impacted in two ways: first, a big storm will come up the East Coast bringing heavy snow to the Appalachians and rain and wind to the coast. Second, very cold air will be pulled down from the north, and from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast it will feel like January again. I suppose one could say, residents of the East will hear the March lion roar next Tuesday. The Northwest will be getting some rain next week, and that is a big change. The entire month has been very dry in Washington and Oregon as all the storms have been coming into central and southern California.



Only time will tell.
wgo
February 25, 2005
Member since 02/10/2004 🔗
1,336 posts
Ah, the joys of being able to live an irony-free existance...
VolklYokel
February 25, 2005
Member since 02/20/2005 🔗
14 posts
Phooey! That little twirling thing over AZ a couple of days ago has stretched out over southern Utah and Colorado and looks like it is losing all it potential. The northern jet has lost it's punch too, and the southern jet is running really zonal (west to east). We need a nice, deppening, low-pressure curl over the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma to show up in the water vapor image in order to get this puppy started, and it ain't there!

I'm backing down on this one, given the latest RAMSDIS imagery and the polar view jet stream map. Monday (2/28) is just going to be another late February day.
kennedy
February 25, 2005
Member since 12/8/2001 🔗
792 posts
It's dead, dead I tells ya. This winter is no more. It's deceased (use your best John Cleese accent here).

I'm not getting fired up for anything until I'm standing ankle deep in fresh and even then I'll be sceptical. You've swindled me once or twice already wintor 04/05, you'll not have me again.
Snowmakers
February 25, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Look at the MM5 model animation. That is the model that predicted this past storm the most accurately and the one I have the most trust in. It displays the precip changing to snow as soon as it hits the mountains. Alot of the models are starting to think that the low will go offshore a bit more. This means less warm air off the ocean will get put into our region and more frozen precipitation will be likely.
Roger Z
February 25, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Winter? What's that? I'm planning on planting all my flowers on Monday. Should be blossoming quite nicely by the time the temps climb into the mid-60s on Wednesday...
Mountain Masher
February 26, 2005
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Things are still looking good for a major snow-storm to hit the mid-Atlantic on Monday! However, it's not going to be very cold when the storm hits. The mild temps have have me worried because we might get rain and/or freezing-rain at some ski areas. I've noticed that many of the daytime high temps this Winter have exceeded the predicted highs. For example, the high predicted for today (here in Bedord Co., PA) was 30 degrees, yet it got up to 35 today and even rained some in Altoona, PA. If, the highs predicted for Monday are exceeded by even a few degrees (like today), then, there could be rain and/or freezing-rain at a few ski areas, particularly the day-tripper ski resorts near DC. Let's hope that (this time) the weather forecasts are correct (or it gets even colder than predicted) when Monday rolls around.
Snowmakers
February 26, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
This is accuweathers forecast:




3-6" for the DC area and 6-10" for me and the mountains.



Edit: It seems now that this will be an overnight storm. This will really help the snow totals because the sun wont be out to keep the ground warm like the last storm. And because of the last snow the ground will already be much colder.


Only 1 model now keeps the low pressure onshore. The other 7 models keep the low off of the coast (more snow).
Roger Z
February 26, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
What's all this snow that's being forecasted? I've got a golf tournament to attend at Hawthorne on Monday and am banking on sunny skies and 50 degrees- otherwise the entire golf tournament will be ruined!!! Ruined, I tell you Mother Nature! Nothing could possibly be worse than RUINING THIS TOURNAMENT WITH A BLIZZARD!!! I would be miserable...
langleyskier
February 27, 2005
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
I just looked at this model and it shows that almost all if not all of the precip will be snow around the DC area. http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaan...&height=700

Of course this is the worst news possible because my raccketball club is holding its annual outdoor playoff
Mountain Masher
February 27, 2005
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
This storm reminds me of the big snow-storm that dropped 3 feet of snow on the DC area in late Winter 1983. The Winter of 82-83 was very similar to this Winter: 82-83 was also a weak El-Nino Winter and very mild with limited snowfall. Then, with Spring nearly in sight, the DC area received anywhere from 2 1/2 to 3 feet of snow over a 24 hour period in 1983. Of course, we're unlikely to get 3 feet out of this storm, but some ski areas might receive a total snowfall accumulation of 2 feet (or more) over a 4 or 5 day period.
langleyskier
February 27, 2005
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
They just updated the forcast...now all websites are predicting all snow for the DC area!!!
Snowmakers
February 27, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Roger Z- I think you might as well give up and accept the fact that this season is not over and this storm is gonna be huge. Translation: (Told ya so).
langleyskier
February 27, 2005
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
This could be one of the best march seasons in the mid atlantic in reasent history...It looks like there arnt going to be any washouts or warm periods for a long time so even the snowtime resorts could see a great march!! Also, i am suprised that the snowtimes are making as much snow as they are, liberty has made over 20 inches in the past week!
Roger Z
February 27, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Darn.
andy
February 27, 2005
Member since 03/6/2004 🔗
175 posts
An all snow scenerio for DC/BALT will prob mean less snow for the mtn's because the storm will be further 0ffshore.+ skiers won't be able to get to the mtn's...Have fun sledding jerk!..JUST JOKING there will be plenty of snow for everyone!I left Beltsville Md during the deepest snows of 95/96 & arrived safely at Timberline...where there is a will there is a way..may your snows run DEEP
snowcone
February 27, 2005
Member since 09/27/2002 🔗
589 posts
Actually, consensus seems to indicate 6-10" maybe more for DC area .... More than 10" for the mountains. Some NOAA models indicate the storm lasting well into Wednesday with some additional flurries for the mountains for Friday/Saturday! ...

I'm luvin' it!!! Heading to 'Shoe Thursday for 4 days of some GOOD tracks!
langleyskier
February 27, 2005
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Ya i agree the mountains will get their fair share. Also, because of the lingering moisture left from the storm it looks like the mountians will get 2-4 extra after the storm has left the DC area. (unfortunately i cant go skiing durring this wek but i have had a trip to Wisp planned for a cupple weeks for next weekend and it looks like there will be some awsome powder left over!!)
DCSki Sponsor: Massanutten Resort

Ski and Tell

Speak truth to powder.

Join the conversation by logging in.

Don't have an account? Create one here.

0.14 seconds