Global Warming, it's the real deal!
February 14, 2005
There's a really interesting article on Global Warming at www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=126207
According to the article, 1998 was the warmest year on record and 2004 was something like the fourth warmest year on record. Interesting enough, the US mid-Atlantic hasn't been affected too much by all of this Global Warming (ie: the Winters of 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 were cold and snowy and the past 2 Summers were cool and wet). However, perhaps this Winter is an indicator that the mid-Atlantic is finally going to get hit with an extended dose of Global Warming. If we should have a long period of Global Warming here in the mid-Atlantic, then a number of ski areas are going to fall by the wayside. And, it's my belief that NO additional ski areas will ever be developed in the mid-Atlantic (it's just too risky these days). In fact, by 2015, it's somewhat likely that there will be fewer ski areas operating in the mid-Atlantic despite the population explosion.
Please, for the love of Ullr, DON'T START THIS CRAP UP AGAIN!!!
I really don't think this is the place to discuss this. It has been hashed out before and I recall a substantial # of people here are either not interested or not willing to be swayed by "the facts" as I see them.
I agree that GW is an accomplished fact. The earth has been warming slowly since the last ice age. Over the last 100-150 years there has been a sharp up turn in that trend. The hypothesis of green house effect / human activity influencing the climate is accepted by the vast majority of scientists. That said, your conclusions with regard to the mid-Atlantic are questionable.
The whole idea of global warming is to look at aggregate temps around the world. You cannot simply focus on a warm or cold spell in one area and conclude that this is the result of xxx global factor. When you try to go back and try to predict local behavior based on global trends the math becomes very difficult and requires the use of a number of assumptions in addition to a "good" model of the local system. the article you cited refers to a number of other factors that may also be affecting local temperatures. So I don't see how it supports your conclusion that skiing will no longer be viable in this area in the mid-future term.
I am not an expert in the field however I have taken a number of college level classes in environmental chemistry in the last 5 years. I am what you would call an informed observer and have done a number of research projects on subjects related to climate change, global warming, el nino, etc... As far as I know, based on those classes, projects, and paying close attention to environmental related news, the modeling and prediction of warming effects on local areas is a fairly new thing and would be the subject of new research beginning now or already in progress.
This is an interesting topic and I think the truth as you call it will be coming to light in the next few years as far as what local repurcussion could be expected in various regions. Any further discussion should be done outside of this forum I think, since no one else seems interested in debate at this time.
(edited for spelling and content)
JR, it's not "crap" as you say! Get used to things like freedom of speech and people who search for the TRUTH, even when it comes to skiing!
tromano, you "just don't get it"! Yes, Global Warming IS measured by the earth's temperature as a whole; however, what I'm trying to point-out is that Global Warming has not affected the mid-Atlantic nearly as much as other areas around the globe. But, should Global Warming have a more localized effect on the mid-Atlantic, the ski industry would feel the impact. Now, given that we are having one of the mildest Winters in recent memory, the key question is this: Is this current warm spell part of a long-term trend????? In my post I was exploring this topic. I find it EXTREMELY hard to believe that you (or others) would not find such a discussion relevant to DCSki! And, IF people don't want to read about Global Warming (on DCSki) as it might affect the local skiing (as you contend), then why are there often large numbers of hits on posts pertaining to this topic, including this thread? Furthermore, if you truly want to keep the topics of discussion on DCSki within a narrow focus, then WHY haven't you complained when there have been (NON-SKIING) discussions (on this forum) about things like the change in the MUSIC format on WHFS or the return of Joe Gibbs to the Redskins????
is it getting hot in here, or is it just me
I just wanted to reiterate the danger of drawing any conclusions at this point.
There was a very interesting program on TWC about 3 months ago about weather phenomena like the north atlantic current. For those who don't know this is basicly the phenomena that keeps western europe (at a latitude further notrth than all new england) out of the freezer. They cited substantial evidence that approximatly 15000 years ago the North Atlantic current was turned off and europe had a mini-ice age for a few hundred years. they noticed that there was a hike in global average temsp at that time as well. They hypothesized that this change in sea temperture was related to the shutting off the current. The question they was that could climate change cause this to happen again. The answer was left as a qualified maybe. And what those changes would be is still not clear. There could be much colder tempertures in some locations. So sking's future is unclear.
Given the advances in snow making and other technology I feel that the sports local viability in different regions will be predicated not on the weather so much as on other economic factors. Such as disposable income. If people can afford to make snow then an incremental increase in temps may be overcome. If it is a drastic change then who knows.
I think its you Babe. Maybe Mountain Masher needs another one of your ski lift Penthouse letters
Its definitely you Boarderbabe
Or maybe just the hot steamy "crap" :P
Good point tromano....about the shift in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic currents. Some scientists believe that, due to an increase in the strength of the cold-water currents heading South (which oppose the Gulf Stream), the Gulf Stream could shift so that it doesn't flow nearly as far North as it presently does. In which case, the climate MIGHT become somewhat cooler in New England, Maritime Canada, and the British Isles. However, it's believed that such a change in the Gulf Stream would have less of a cooling effect on the US mid-Atlantic. But, even a small amount of cooling in the mid-Atlantic would likely result in higher annual snowfall amounts. However, absent a major shift in the Gulf Stream, there appears to be a warming trend in the mid-Atlantic.
is it getting hot in here, or is it just me
That would be the heat coming from me because you have that bikini on. :P
I think its topical to skiing, I have learned something in the various dicussions.
As for GW -- I think Tromono/MM, et.al. have some great comments. As a local, I do know it *SEEMS* vastly warmer in the winter around here than when I grew up. I didn't learn to ice skate & ski 'cause it was 65 in Feb here -- instead the lakes froze over and we played pick up hockey. I haven't seen anyone ice skate on a lake in this area in years. In my mind, I noticed the warmer weather around '85 or so start to creap in. At first I didn't mind, now its freakin' me out.
As for Boarderbabe, I like her posts, they add a bit of spice to rather straightlaced discussions about which ski wax to use, etc... (guilty!)
MM: Might I suggest that you go skiing/boarding tomorrow or Sat. At lunch, find yourself an outdoor table, have a beer or three, and just kind of kick back, enjoy the sun on your face, take a few deep breaths and just soak it all in. To me, that's what skiing is all about.
Boarderbabe: It's definitely very hot in here...the only solution is for you to peel down to your bikini again....
Yeah KevR, I remember way back when i was a little guy, seems like every winter we got a snow that was over my waist. Now it's rare that we get one higher than my knees
. I agree this topic is of interest to me as a skier but there seems to be an underlying....loss for the word... that it's.. there is something we can do about it. What I'm gonna do about it is call in sick tomorrow from the PA Turnpike, onthe the way to
boarderbabe, I suspect the answer to your question is, both
Concern for the environment, the changes that such environment are having on the weather, and the way this weather directly affects our sport(s), is certainly germane to this conversation, topic and web site.
We have surely conversed on the improvements to Corridor H as a way to expedite our commute to the ski areas. We've talked about real estate development, construction of dams, water containment systems, and other matters that are ancilliary to the main topic because they relate and impact on the conduct of the sport. Why not then weather, including the ADVERSE weather developments in the region or the planet, that are jeopardizing the sport itself?
If we were a site about hunting, we would certainly be talking about the latest state or federal legislation that threatened the sport, and rightly so. I would not be surprised that some of the same nice folks on the web site would be rising with righteous indignation at this opprobrium. Why not then at the number one development that threatens skiing?
We may not see the instant change in the weather to state that it is affecting us. However, I wonder what our response would be to our grandchildren when they ask us about why we could have done something and we didn't, especially when they have to read about skiing in the history books.
I think weather is topical to skiing, as we depend on it to do what we like. here's something related that may in fact have a larger impact on mid-atlantic weather than GW at the moment. I'll just copy the article directly in...
El Nino to Weaken in Next 3 Months - U.S. NOAA
By Christopher Doering
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A weak El Nino that had a minor impact on global weather recently will diminish and end during the next three months, U.S weather forecasters said on Thursday.
In its latest El Nino assessment report, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said El Nino conditions were unlikely to reemerge during the remainder of 2005.
El Nino, which is Spanish for "the little boy," is an abnormal warming of water in the Pacific Ocean every three or so years that can wreak havoc with global weather patterns.
The current El Nino emerged in October and remained relatively weak compared to previous ones. NOAA said El Nino's impact was minimized by limited convection, or the pulling of air and moisture upward into the atmosphere, in the warm water of the central equatorial Pacific.
The weather abnormality last appeared from May 2002 through March 2003, causing record rains in Europe and Australia's worst drought in a century. In the United States, it aggravated drought in the Plains states and unleashed heavy storms in the South.
El Ninos can affect crop production, commercial fishing, and energy consumption in countries around the world.
Hey Jimmi,arn't your knees about as high as your waist was as a kid??!!?Its 15 degrees up at the valley with about 5 or 6 inches of fresh stuff as i write...Its all good!
Hey Jimmi,arn't your knees about as high as your waist was as a kid??!!?