Accuweather releases Winter 04-05 Forecast...WOW!!
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The Colonel - DCSki Supporter 
October 18, 2004
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,110 posts
Here is the AccuWeather Winter Forecast for the US....Looking real good for midAtlantic skiing!!!!!!!!!!! Winter Storm Center Releases 2004-2005 Winter Forecast
High Energy Use Areas in the East Can Expect Colder-Than Average Temperatures

(State College, PA - October 17, 2004) - The Winter Storm Center today released its 2004-2005 Winter Forecast. The Winter Forecast is highlighted by colder-than-normal temperatures expected over the East, including the Northeast, the region that accounts for 90 percent of the heating oil use in the U.S.

Cold Weather May Start Early in the East Winter Storm Center meteorologists are not only predicting colder-than-average temperatures over the East, but also perhaps an early start to winter in those areas. The average temperatures are expected to be at least two degrees below normal in an area that extends from southern Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire south to the Florida Panhandle, and as far west as southeast Ohio and eastern areas of Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Temperatures of normal to one degree below normal are expected to the west of this area to the Mississippi River. A narrow band in the western Virginia and North Carolina mountains will average at least three degrees below normal.

"I believe that the Northeast will have a cold winter, and that is not good news for energy consumers in that area," said Joe Bastardi, Winter Storm Center Expert Senior Meteorologist. Bastardi coordinated the Winter Season Forecast.

The nation from the Great Plains westward is expected to have temperatures that average slightly above normal. There will be an area of temperatures that average at least two degrees above normal in eastern Oregon, Idaho, northern Nevada, southwest Montana, much of Wyoming and north-central Colorado.

Above-Normal Snow for Southern, Central Appalachians
The Winter Storm Center has good news for ski areas in the central and southern Appalachians, where snowfall this winter is expected to be 125% of normal. Normal to slightly-above normal snowfall is expected in southern New England, southeast New York State, New Jersey, the much of Pennsylvania, much of West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Normal to slightly-below normal snowfall is expected in the Ohio Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley, and central Plains. The eastern Great Lakes and northern New England are also expecting normal to slightly-below normal snowfall, as is the Pacific Northwest. Snowfall totals of 25 percent below normal are expected in the upper Midwest, western Great Lakes, upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Plains. Snowfall total in the Rockies should be normal to slightly-below, except for Montana, where snowfall totals are expected to be 25 percent below normal. Winter Storm Center meteorologists note that snowfall totals can greatly influenced by one storm, since a single storm can drop a significant percentage of the winter's snow total in one or two days. Winter Season Forecast More Valuable Than Government 'Forecast'
The Winter Storm Center Winter Forecast offers a more complete look at what to expect for the winter when compared to the National Weather Service's (NWS) winter season outlook. The NWS's outlook is more of a probability scheme than a forecast. For example, in this year's NWS winter outlook, large areas of the United States are listed as having equal chances of warmer, cooler or normal temperatures. Areas that the NWS has targeted for below-normal temperatures are given percentage values of probability of below-normal, but not exact temperature predictions.

Because the Winter Storm Center Winter Outlook offers actual temperature predictions, it is a more valuable forecast. Economic interests from homeowners to energy suppliers want detailed temperature outlooks to help predict costs and manage their resources. This cannot be done with vague percentages that do not give an idea of specific temperature forecasts.

In addition, the NWS does not offer a snowfall forecast, but instead only offers a precipitation outlook, using the same probability scheme it uses for temperatures. This makes the snowfall forecast in the Winter Storm Center Winter Forecast more useful, because above-normal precipitation does not automatically mean more snow in the winter. For example, it could be bitter cold for five days, but warm up and rain as a storm approaches. Offering a snowfall outlook is more valuable for transportation interests and municipalities planning snow removal budgets.

"The Winter Storm Center Winter Forecast is designed to focus on impact, and provides users a clear idea of what to expect, as opposed to vague percentage values from government sources that do not support advance planning for expected winter weather," said Dr. Joel N. Myers, Founder and President.

About AccuWeather and, The World's Weather Authority®, provides a portfolio of products and services through the airwaves, via the Internet, in print, and behind the scenes that benefit hundreds of millions of people worldwide. services more than 100,000 paying customers in media, business, government and institutions, and millions more through the website. also provides content onto more than 600 Internet sites including CNN Interactiv, ABC's owned and operated stations, The Associated Press©, The Washington Post and The New York Times.

To speak with an meteorologist about breaking weather news, contact 814-235-8650.

About The Winter Storm Center
The Hurricane Center is a think tank of winter storm experts with decades of experience in analyzing and forecasting the effects of adverse winter weather such as blizzards, ice storms and arctic outbreaks. The Winter Storm Center alerts the public and media to upcoming wintry threats, including risks to life and property. In addition, the Winter Storm Center educates the public and media about the history, causes and affects of winter weather.

To speak with a winter weather expert about breaking winter storm news, contact 814-235-8650.
Roger Z
October 19, 2004
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Forecasts of cold winters are the kiss of death! Break out the flip flops, we'll be dancin' on the beach Christmas Eve...
Mountain Masher
October 20, 2004
Member since 03/13/2004 🔗
541 posts
Overall, the Accuweather forecast sounds really good for skiing in the mid-Atlantic. However, it looks like 7-Springs (where I'm a season pass holder) might have less than normal snowfall this Winter. NOAA will update it's Winter outlook on or about Oct. 21; it will be interesting to see exactly what NOAA forecasts.
johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
October 20, 2004
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,984 posts
This is one of the most positive early forecasts I've seen in years. Even if we do not get the extra snow as predicted, the cold temps will be a blessing. In this region where most resorts have close to 100 percent snowmaking, all we need is cold weather. We could see a nice early season at Whitetail if things go as Bastardi predicts.
October 20, 2004
Member since 09/27/2002 🔗
589 posts
It seems to be pretty much a consensus this year. All of the weather sites I normally check, including WXRisk and EU ones tell pretty much the same story .. we are gonna have a cold possibly snowy winter.

This is a GOOD THING!!!
October 20, 2004
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts

Forecasts of cold winters are the kiss of death! Break out the flip flops, we'll be dancin' on the beach Christmas Eve...

Two more kisses of death- installing ski racks before any resorts are open and mounting your snow....let me rephrase, having your snow tires mounted before first snow.

October 20, 2004
Member since 11/9/2001 🔗
221 posts
A one or two degree difference can be the deciding factor on many nights when resorts want to make snow. Seeing the colder temps expected into north Florida is good news. Maybe NC will be great at Christmas, after all!

Ski and Tell

Snowcat got your tongue?

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