NOAA Winter Forecast
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jb714
October 6, 2004
Member since 03/4/2003
294 posts
For what it's worth NOAA has published their winter climate forecast for 2004-05. It looks promising for the mid-Atlantic.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326.htm
Roger Z
October 7, 2004
Member since 01/16/2004
2,181 posts
Not that I think they're all that great, but here's accuweather's winter forecast:

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=3

Looks good in the east. Also, they're calling for a potential snow/ice/rain event in Davis the week of the 17th of October. First snow on the way????
Murphy
October 7, 2004
Member since 09/13/2004
618 posts
I don't put much stock in those long range forecasts either but compare the accuweather map to the DCSki resort finder map. It looks like they drew a circle around 90% of the resorts and labeled it the most below average temperatures in the country. Could we have three great winters in a row?
ScotS244
October 7, 2004
Member since 01/29/2004
122 posts
Was last Winter considered good as far as snow conditions at the local areas? I know I was hoping for more and better many times last year....
andy
October 7, 2004
Member since 03/6/2004
175 posts
scott the higher elevation ski areas west of the allegheny front had a very good season. I predict 168" for canaan vly this year based on a cooler but ave to slightly below ave precip f-cast.You can still have a below ave precip year with above ave snow because a greater percent of the precip that falls will be in the frozen form
Roger Z
October 7, 2004
Member since 01/16/2004
2,181 posts
Generally a good winter throughout the mid-Atlantic. Certainly not as good as the year before, what with the warm spell at New Years and then a second one later in Feb, if I remember right. On the whole, though, temps were below avg and snowfall above.
Murphy
October 7, 2004
Member since 09/13/2004
618 posts
That's pretty much how I remember it. There were some dry spells but there were some really good stretches too. When we went to Snowshoe in early February the snow was great (until the ice storm hit). The pickup truck abandoned in the field at the base of the mountain was buried up to the hood in snow (West Virginia snow gauge ).
jonjon
October 7, 2004
Member since 04/2/2004
70 posts
I think that this past winter was slightly above-average for snow, and below average in temperatures. Snowfall was above average in December and January, about average in March, slightly below in November, and way above average in April. I measured around 150" of snow here in Davis -- I'm guessing the realistic average here is around 135". Canaan Heights got 198", I would guess their average to be closer to 180". And if I'm not mistaken, Snowshoe got somewhere in the 190s, with their average around 180". So it was above average slightly, but nothing to write home about. But that is the great thing about the weather along the Allegheny Front, even an average snow year is a great snow year!
Roy
October 8, 2004
Member since 01/11/2000
609 posts
With the day tripper resorts (liberty, roundtop, etc.) opening by the first weekend of December, that's a good start to the year. The warm NYE was not good but then the rest of the month was below freezing and liberty had the guns running almost 24/7.

I skied, I had fun, I was not injured (much), and I live to ski another year. That makes it a good year.
andy
October 8, 2004
Member since 03/6/2004
175 posts
Jonjon I think your right about 135" bieng the realistic ave for davis(3100') & 180" for the highest elevations.Canaan vly resort always used to advert 160" & Timberline 150" I guess its possible that canaan got a little more snow than timberline,they are a little west & have a bigger mtn(4500' Wiess knob)to work with.With that bieng said you add 135 + 180 divide by 2 & you get 157.5 almost halfway between TL & CV's ave's. I think it is safe to say from now on that the canaan vly AREA recieves almost 160" of snowfall a year!Same latitude as Wash DC which is how much further south of vermont?A whole lot...WV is a godsend to a snow loving southern boy.
Denis - DCSki Supporter
October 8, 2004
Member since 07/12/2004
2,171 posts
For snow and ski conditions in Canaan Valley look here;
http://www.whitegrass.com/report.html
During the season Chip posts a daily report with a picture, usually by 8 AM. I have found his reports to be by far the most honest and informative for the CV area.

BTW if you call up the page now and look about halfway down there are stats for the last 2 winters. He claims the Whitegrass averages are 150" in the valley (3200 ft.) and 180 up top (4400 ft.)
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