I think Oct 8-15 sounds about right. I am not sure how you feel about keeping an eye on the foliage thru live cams. If you want, you can check it out thru www.instacam.com.
There's one for Shenandoah Nat'l Park in the Luray area. You can also check and compare other areas in southwestern part of VA(e.g.Wise, Roanoke, Lebanon, Danville,etc) as well as the area northwest of I-81. Not sure if the leaves changes first among the mountain top at Shenandoah Nat'l Park before the valley area.
Have fun if you go hiking.