Pattern Change
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langleyskier
November 15, 2009
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
We need some cold!!!! Its about that time of year when resorts should be firing up guns and starting on their bases. I have been watching the long range forecasts for indications of a real switch to cold rather than 60's/50's and sunny. Looks like right around thanksgiving might be the period to keep an eye on for a good cold shot or a transition into winter.... ill post more later as we get a bit closer.
David
November 15, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Please change soon! I'm tired of these 70 degree days in mid-November.
fishnski
November 15, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
I looked back at the November countdown thread & on the 12th I posted that it looked like T-giving would be the real deal. I remember seeing that for a day or two before posting, so it seems to be holding true. even if the cold..& there are hints of snow with both LE & some coastal action..gets here on T-Giving, it will be too late for folks like my brother who booked 4 days at Snowshoe...the 1st 10 days of Nov the models were flipping all over the place but seemed to have settled down..we shall see..

just looked at 18z GFS & it puts a low going up thru the Ohio Valley which would put off the cold till the 28th...thats the way they roll..Back & forth....BUT ITS COMING...but will it be a true pattern change or just a burp...Thats the Answer L-Ski will hopefully get back to us on!!
Denis - DCSki Supporter
November 16, 2009
Member since 07/12/2004 🔗
2,222 posts
Just biding time until it happens. Last year we got a great start that fizzled. Given a choice I'd rather have a slow start and long cold snowy winter.

Took a beautiful bike ride yesterday. W & OD trail from Rt. 28 to Purcellville, VA and return. It was warm enough to wear summer stuff, bike shorts & a thin shirt, yet not warm enough to sweat much. Last Wed. while still in VT, daughter & I took a hike up Camel's Hump.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camel%27s_Hump_%28Vermont%29
The rocky summit had some ice on it, the air temp was 25 deg. yet sun made it feel like 45 until the breeze blew. This is now my second favorite mtn. hike in the east after Katahdyn; Old Rag drops to #3. We took the Alpine trail (branch off Monroe Trail). It is spectacular. You hike directly under the Lion's Face, looking up at 300 feet of sheer rock, then wind around and up to the top.
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fishnski
November 16, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Sounds like you have changed your Pattern Denis!

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs...ming_winter.asp
The latest Long range prognosis.. & it keeps with the theme of the Mid Atlantic & east coast getting a good winter with multiple chances for Noreasters & the benifit of being on the cooler side of north America. There is an incredible amount of Snow cover on the Asian side of the Arctic & even though we are behind on this side it will turn in a snowbeat when that pattern does change.After surges & scary slowdowns the Arctic Ice extent is kicking along again!...I'm with you Denis..Start slow & easy & then kick butt!!!
langleyskier
November 16, 2009
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Problem right now is that there is NOOOOO model consensus. What you are looking at if you look at the GFS/Euro/NAM is the operational model (aka the one the gurus believe is the best tweaked. There are 8-24 what are called "ensemble" models runs which is the same model with slightly different parameters.

With these, there is no consensus at all... meaning that we have no real clue what day 8-10+ has in store for us (why crackuweather's 14 day forecast is worth crap). By this weekend we will have a MUCH better idea; should be fun to watch.
David
November 16, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Originally Posted By: langleyskier
By this weekend we will have a MUCH better idea; should be fun to watch.


You and Andy crack me up. You both have your sign off slogans down. His is "Stay tuned".

I need to come up with one of my own. Any ideas? I'm terrible at this kind of thing...
fishnski
November 16, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
I'm betting Davids Allowance that it will Snow in the WV Alpps T-Giving holiday & the guns will be blasting away..If I had to narrow it down I'd say late fri the 27th for the snow & Real cold blast but a place like SS might find a few hours window to make snow once or twice leading up to the main event...STAY TUNED...& Waxed!...
David
November 17, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
My allowance huh? Don't forget now, I'm in med school. That means I have a pretty big allowance (well, what I haven't spent on SAC at least). I hope you're right. Not so that you won't lose some money though. I'm ready for some snow!!
yellowsnow
November 17, 2009
Member since 12/15/2005 🔗
268 posts
Originally Posted By: David

You both have your sign off slogans down. His is "Stay tuned".

I need to come up with one of my own. Any ideas? I'm terrible at this kind of thing...


"Did I mention I'm in med school?"
David
November 17, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Originally Posted By: yellowsnow
Originally Posted By: David

You both have your sign off slogans down. His is "Stay tuned".

I need to come up with one of my own. Any ideas? I'm terrible at this kind of thing...


"Did I mention I'm in med school?"



That's just frustration boiling over. I'm not a big fan...
langleyskier
November 17, 2009
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Still not a ton of consensus.. but im getting a tingly feeling (same one that you have Andy) that we are going to get a solid cold shot around the time the turkey hits the table. Not sure what will happen thereafter but we are in store for a good winter.. I can feel it. I just want to see a gun turn on within 200 miles of DC then I will be content
David
November 17, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Snowshoe's Facebook is liking next week's weather...

"...Now it's time to wait for Mother Nature to work her magic...looks like early next week could bring GREAT news for us!"
fishnski
November 17, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Who is posting these Weather F-casts on SS Facebook?..The Resort or Folks like me, you & L-Ski?& Kwill..he is getting into the weather Buis too!...NWS has a 50 degree high for tuesday early next week at an elevation of 4572'...Hope the Facebookers are right but I would bet that you should just chill & head down here while your waiting & catch some sea trout...the speckled kind...Got the Grey Trout a mile off the beach if you can find the Ocean down...


http://www.fishermanspost.com/
jimmy
November 18, 2009
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
Originally Posted By: yellowsnow
Originally Posted By: David

You both have your sign off slogans down. His is "Stay tuned".

I need to come up with one of my own. Any ideas? I'm terrible at this kind of thing...




"Did I mention I'm in med school?"


Bushwacher had one you might like, something about the only difference between a ski bum and a doctor is a ski bum gets to ski all the time and eats lots of ramen.
KeithT
November 18, 2009
Member since 11/17/2008 🔗
383 posts
crabs are still fat up here so I expect we have a few weeks to go.
David
November 18, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Andy, you better get on it. I don't know who to believe???


This morning's Facebook update: "Chilly morning on the mountain, unfortunately not quite cold enough, but we can feel it coming. Early next week still looks like FANTASTIC weather for us!"
fishnski
November 18, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
I was going to stay away from this thread because I had allready made my Predict & with all the Bantering back & forth I sensed you Natives getting Frusterated & tired of all the Mishmash BS...Since then I have CKed out all my fav Sources Including very Good Meteoroligists & you wouldn't believe all the wishy washy beating around the bush/hype/what if/ kind of remarks that made me feel better about the comments made on DCSKI so I will continue till my life gets threatened crazy..

For almost 2 weeks now the Man Made brains have fluctuated between the 24th to the 29th for a good cold Snowy shot...the last 2 runs that I have CKed (2 diff models) & I won't go into details...shows the air cold enough to make snow hopefully by the morn of the 25th but at least at nite & continuing into the 28th with LE involved. I don't think this is the Pattern Change yet but maybe a start. Early Dec looks to bring in some more goodness. This is L-Skis thread so I've said enough & hope he follows up with more expertise & inside info...Are we heading for a real Pattern Change L-Ski??
langleyskier
November 18, 2009
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Here is the deal: so there is a LOT of cold in the arctic (especially the other side & Alaska... lots of records). Given such the general consensus is that by mid December this could is going to come around this way and bring us a real winter chill (dunno about snow). BUT it will not be in time for T-Giving and likely not in time for openings before the first week in Dec (maybe some resorts could squeeze out 1-5 trails). My prediction:
-temps to go back to more AVG by thanksgiving with possibly below average temps for 2-3 days
-quick warm up with a apps runner that brings some great chilly rain for most (2-4 days)
-cool down before December 15th.. real arctic cold with temps around freezing or 20's for DC

for resort openings:

Snowshoe: day after thanksgiving (beginner terrain) w/little more by following weekend
Wisp/7-Springs: 1st weekend in December (if wisp really tries then t-giving weekend)
The rest sometime after this (by 2nd weekend in december)
.... cannan valley: hopefully snowmaking will be finished on beginner run by Christmas ;-) ....

Lots of guesswork so take it all w/a grain of salt, I am making a month long forecast so it can all be VERY different (good or bad)
langleyskier
November 19, 2009
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Snowshoe uses a magic 8-ball coupled with farmers almanac, dont worry they will prove they are making snow, just check out their webcam...
fishnski
November 19, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Snowing & Snowmaking are 2 different games..I should correct myself..Wed Morn or wed nite cold enough for Snow but the conditions for snowmaking might have to wait till early Thur.
Sunday will be a gorgeous day to be high up in the WV Alpps..my final Answer...
snowsmith - DCSki Supporter
November 19, 2009
Member since 03/15/2004 🔗
1,363 posts
It seems these weather patterns last for about a month. So if we go back to the type of weather we had in October, when it was bit chilly, for December, looks like the Christmas holiday should be good. Then some time in early January the pattern will shift backt the 'west to east flow of weather', such as we have now. So January we could have a thaw, followed by a cold February. Hey, what do I know??? Just an observation.
We haven't had a big snow in the Laurel Mts for I would say 5 years. It's time.
fishnski
November 20, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
I agree with you Snowsmith..long term Pattern Changes are rare. Here is what a Pro thinks
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs...ill_be_slow.asp
David
November 20, 2009
Member since 06/28/2004 🔗
2,444 posts
Not looking good...

"**NEWS ALERT** Snowshoe Mountain has delayed Opening Day due to the mild fall and lack of snow conditions. We have targeted DEC 4TH based on current long-term forecasts but we will open AS SOON AS MOTHER NATURE/CONDITIONS ALLOW. We will keep you updated with information here, as well as at snowshoemtn.com and 877-441-4386. Stay tuned for a contest to win a free pair of lift tickets and THINK SNOW!!!!"
fishnski
November 20, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
It was just a matter of time..I told my Brother a few days ago that I thought that they might have opened a top to bottom "Ribbon of Death" Run by Sat into sun...Guess I'll call him now to cancel his res frown I think they will do fine the next weekend...lot cheaper the next weekend!
bob
November 20, 2009
Member since 04/15/2008 🔗
689 posts
The pattern is normal in Colorado.

Vail opened today, and Breck was a sunny chilly 3 degrees, although it'll be in the 40s by this afternoon.
snowsmith - DCSki Supporter
November 20, 2009
Member since 03/15/2004 🔗
1,363 posts
I was really hoping for skiing the day after Turkey Day. I doubt enough snow can be made during that short period of cold to get any terrain open....as you say a 'ribbon of death'.

We'll have to wait at least a week to scratch our ski jones!!
fishnski
November 21, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
I don't Know about a pattern change..But what I see for T-Giving on into Dec is.."Change we can believe in"..& I'm the man who says "Yes we can"....Ski!!!!...I will be making a speech in Copenhagen on Climate Change soon....
langleyskier
November 22, 2009
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
not surprised, t-giving could looks weak. Cool days but nights relatively warm and any precip is rain. It will come... just not as soon as we might wish
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