Accuweather's Joe Bastardi Says Bad Storm
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The Colonel - DCSki Supporter
October 15, 2009
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
3,107 posts
From my Weather guru, Joe Bastardi of Accuweather, at 2:30 today!
"THURSDAY 2:30 PM
Beach battering through the weekend Delmarva to southern New England.. Branch breaking snows in places outlined in previous posts.
I won't dwell on the snow.. once above 1,500 feet, anywhere from West Virginia to central New England, you best be ready to deal with power outages. I would be concerned above 1,000 feet, above 2,000 feet. But roads that are above 2,000 feet in pa may be impassable Saturday afternoon. That could occur before, but it is the second storm that has the chance to put down a foot to 18 inches in 12 hours..the first storm is a 1 inch at valley floors to 6 inches in the highest mountains. Wild bands develop when the upper low comes in.
But now that the idea of the two storm deal is clear, it is time to pull out the stops on what could be a major tidal flooding event from the Delmarva to Cape Cod. The rogue storm develops a warm core and because it does this, it is a smaller scale intense system within a larger area of low pressure. It has its own isobaric field that it takes with it... and leaves behind a northeast flow into the beaches, rather than turning the wind to northwest. The gales lasting the coastal areas tonight do diminish tomorrow, but a stiff northeast wind continues tomorrow and tomorrow night and by Saturday morning, a new storm is developing about 150 east of the Virginia capes. The gets entrained back west of north toward the approaching upper low.. So what we have here is the first system leaving the playing field, but leaving behind a field ripe for the dynamics to take over. Heavy snows resume in the mountains of Pennsylvania late tomorrow night with a band into West Virginia and then stick east-northeast toward New England. However, it is the coastal areas that now have to deal with a renewed gale from the northeast Saturday into Sunday. The center should "tuck in" to near the mouth of Delaware bay for a time late Saturday and Saturday night, then leave Sunday into Monday.
This means the threat of major flooding for the shore towns from Ocean City, Md, north during the weekend as the second storm winds up. Obviously, the number one target would be farther north -- the Jersey Shore and then up to New England.
Total precip of 3-5 inches with both storms will occur in east central Pennsylvania and a lot of that will be snow in the high ground, though amounts on the ground should not get to the 10-to-1 ratio. However, a devastating foliage event, given credence to the idea that the year that some thought was without summer in some of the areas of the Northeast in these mountains winds up as a year without a fall foliage, event is in the making."
The Colonel smile
Roger Z
October 15, 2009
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
I've gotten used to being able to give the little "thumbs up" in Facebook for good comments... this one gets a "thumbs up" in spirit! laugh
fishnski
October 16, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
The Mid Atl thread is dead now that we have recieved the 1st snow so here is a follow up..We should warm up for awhile after all this early winter weather clears out.& now speaking of Gurus let me pat my back because I Study this as hard as my Brain Damaged brain can..
On Oct 10th I broke the fact that the 16th thru the 18th could be Snowy in WV..on the 11th I confirmed it..on the 12th I said that the hardest hit areas would actually be up in the more central & eastern parts of PA..that has now been confirmed...on the 13th L-Ski said that things looked to bomb out over PA(up to 18inches).Just like Joe Bastardi said Yest But I told L-Ski that I Felt that there would be a lot more Snow in the air than what would settle & accumulate..So far the highest snowfall I can find is 3 to 4 inches up at or above 2000'..Tybehanna State park just north of Mount Pocono is one spot...A day before JB mentions this Bad storm I talked of this 3rd storm in this series that would be the one to coax the likes of Denis & Crew up to whitegrass/Weiss knob...Sun Morn will be Nice & Snowy up at the Valley!..To get back to what L-Ski saw in the models & JB's Hype,The Jury is still out but I'm still thinking that the marginal temps will surpress the amounts & unlike the usual storms that leave the Alpps & then give us just as much snow on the backside, This system will not set up like that.....Just a weather watching Rookies Perspective....
fishnski
October 17, 2009
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
http://www.paccsa.org/webcam.htm(0 Snow)

Looking real bad right now...I hope the National Guard can get to those folks!....Seriously there might be a little action tonite when the temps drop but the 18 to 24 inches Joe Bastardi Hyped will not happin..Like I have Said for a few days now..Its early Oct & the temps are marginal & with above normal Sea Surface Temps which by the way no one seems to bring into play..A whole lot more snow falling than sticks..& even if it sticks it melts soon after...Remember..Fishnski's Amma-pro weather Svc..Link on to the "We Knows Snows" Tab....still waiting for my 1st customer.....(8 years of near perfect Forcasting for dcski)
Like Ali used to say..it ain't braggin if you can back it up.
Ok..Quit your pukin folks!..Geeeze..
skiTLINE
October 18, 2009
Member since 12/15/2004 🔗
230 posts
Just got back from TLine this afternoon. Yesterday 10/17 saw flurries for good part of day but nothing stuck. Then last night it started up again and began to stick and when we woke up had 3+ and when left at 11am had about 4+ on deck. Really nice site to see snow mid October smile
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