Powder Watch
8 posts
4 users
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fishnski
December 3, 2008
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
After a little Fluff up Thur Eve for Fri morn Nicey's, the main Event starts late Sat/mon...stay tuned....(SS-CV-7S)

Its CLIPPER Time!!!!
skier219
December 3, 2008
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
GFS shows 6-8" right now -- let's hope it gets even better!
fishnski
December 3, 2008
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Still watching the clipper but next week is starting to look interesting....Coastal??

PS..a little birdie just told me that there might be an oficial weather blog bieng set up here at DCSKI...weve been needing that for awhile!
MattM
December 3, 2008
Member since 03/1/2006 🔗
23 posts
Originally Posted By: skier219
GFS shows 6-8" right now -- let's hope it gets even better!


Which forecast are you referring to with GFS???
skier219
December 3, 2008
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
langleyskier
December 4, 2008
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
If you want to look at a short range forecasting model (goes 84 hrs out) check out the WRF (same as the NAM). Much more detailed mesoscale (small scale) model, does much better than the GFS when it comes to forecasting upslope or lake effect.

GFS is a good synoptic (large scale) longer range model. It is pathetic with precip totals so dont read too much into that, almost never correct. But is one of a few global models that do have a good handle on the general pattern forecasting.

If you want to estimate precip totals for the mnts it is best to watch the weather and see what patterns bring upslope snow or lake effect snow and estimate totals without reading directly what the model says.

good sites for the models:

Penn State Ewall
-personal favorite, for the WRF click on the most recent time (0Z, 6Z, 12Z, or 18Z) and "select regional loop." You can get a zoomed in model forecast for our area, much more detailed than the GFS.

NCEP model page (nam, GFS and others)
-Personal favorite for the long range GFS. Use the "850mb" forecast or 1000-500mb thickness maps, best for diagnosing snow/rain.
fishnski
December 4, 2008
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Good fisherman never tell thier secrets...especially the ones that do it for a livin...
skier219
December 4, 2008
Member since 01/8/2005 🔗
1,318 posts
I don't necessarily endorse the GFS as the best, but over the last few years it has been a good input to use as a basis for follow on forecasting using empirical data and experience -- mostly because it gets the big picture right, farther in advance. I consider several models when coming up with real snowfall predictions as we get closer in. Here are 84 hour snowfall predictions for three models right now -- a bit of variance to be sure (one is based on the NAM). It will be interesting to see how they converge as we get closer in.




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