All the glum news from around the planet and here in our backyard relating to the economic blow-up and the resulting actions/inactions of those in a position to prevent the meltdown has caused each of us to reexamine our goals and priorities. How will it affect you recreational time on snow? Will the resulting deflation/inflation help or hinder what you can/will do? What will energy cost do now that the market is in a crash mode? Will our favorite ski areas remain solvent or will they be forced under? Will travel, domestic or overseas, become a victim? Opinions anyone???

Suppose it could play out several ways:

Would think that the high end resorts in the west would see the worst of it. They are most dependant on the longer vacations and farther more costly trips. Also, the high end real estate in the west is held more proportionally by the overly leveraged Californians, who may dump their ski house and vacation before seening their primary residence being taken by the sheriff.

May be more of a mixed bag for the local resorts. With gas prices headed down, that may be a plus and maybe they will pick up some visitors who are more inclinded to stay close to home. People will still want to recreate, and even if they are unemployed they may take a day at a local resort, but would never consider jumping on a plane to Aspen.

Certainly a crazy time, unlike any financial crisis most of us have seen in our lives. Important G7 mtg in the next few days in DC. I'm hoping leaders will convey a calm and the markets will start to rebound next week. Somewhere in all this there may be opportunities for those in a position of strength, whether it be buying stocks before they rebound from historic lows, or buying depressed ski real estate being dumped by others.
Possibly a little naive on my part, but in times like these we must not panic. Fear can feed these macro economic problems.
I think the relative strength of the DC area economy and job market should be of some comfort to local ski areas.

As I check the world markets and see significant losses and watch as governments close their markets to prevent further decline, I wonder where it will all lead. I'm in the boat riding this thing out in hopes that when things bottom out, I'll be able to take some of my "safe money" and invest it to make up for the hit I'm taking in today's market. Oh, one other thing, I've given up on the idea of retirement anytime soon.

While the market may be difficult for the ski resorts, I personally plan to keep a routine visiting schedule if not increase that a bit this year. I'm not worried in the least about the market tumbling and in fact more worried about the socialist style government intervention. I'd really like to see the market tumble to the bottom, shake down the credit and lending industry so that the fear of God is instilled in lenders to lend to truly qualifying borrowers. Thus the 'buying power' doesn't increase because adding risky lenders to the mix thus the price of everything falls from land to homes and such. I say let those homes get foreclosed on by owners who made bad decisions in mortgages. I'll still be boarding on the slopes regardless.

Hopefully you will still be employed, Brad.

My take is everyone is trying to save at the SAME TIME -- that is shore up their cash reservers at once, from main street to wall street, from the US to Europe and Asia (although more here...) We've had oh -- a half dozen years maybe or longer where the saving rates has dipped every closer to zero, to slight negative territory -- and an era of super cheap credit encouraged folks to spend what they had, and then borrow further if needed (and of course some folks had no choice)...

Well kinda like having 3 drinks at a party is fun, and so 3 more seems "funner" but it turns out that makes you sick -- we now have the hangover from that era. So everyone is saving, cutting corners, eating out less, the list goes on. And if they have it there, pulling out of the market, selling off assets if they can ... all in a made rush to shore up the cash.

So -- in terms of skiing I expect to see: slower ticket sales, more retail ski shop sales, more folks bringing bag lunches to resorts, more carpooling to resorts, rental/stay rate discount, generally great offers from destination locations to try to get folks out there, ... whether folks will feel comfortable enough to bite on any of this I don't know but I think there will be some details out there -- AND I THINK GAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CHEAP...

Be great to have a nice solid COLD WINTER with plenty of snow to lift the spirits eh?!

I saw gas for $3.15 in Leesburg today. I paid $3.40-ish 2 days ago in Ashburn. Big drop in a short period of time.

It's not impossible to think that we'll be below $3 in a month's time.

As much as this current mess sucks, it may force a return to "traditional" fiscal values, like not spending more than you make. My girlfriend has no credit cards and deals exclusively in cash. She actually congratulated herself the other day, saying, "well, what did they expect? That's why I don't spend more than I have." It sounds sooooo simple, and it is, but it has been so difficult because there was so much pressure to live the other way.

If I can just get rid of student loans, and refi my house before my ARM resets (in 3.5 years), I'll be doing just fine...


aaron

I hear ya. It dropped to $3.25 today here in my area of WV. Lately I have been buying gas in $10 increments since it seems to be dropping so much. $10 seems to get me about 110-120 miles, so I can't complain too much....

I saw $2.95 today with deisel at $3.59 way down in South carolina.
Made some good money at Work today just to come home & see Me & Betterhalfski lost a few more thousand bucks...many more thousand bucks ..Almost seems silly to go to work! I'm hanging tough But there are a lot of panicky weakies (Smarties?) screwing things up....Anyway, I'm with Kwill...I'm getting ready to pounce on the market with the Calvery money!

PS..Everybody seems to be working in all my travels...if everybody just calms down we can get back to buis!

I don't know about anybody else, but I am skiing even if we have a complete world economic collapse. I bought a season pass and as long as they turn the lifts on, I'll be there. I may have to cut back on the 'apre-ski' (i.e. drinking) but if I'm going to watch my investments turn into junk bonds, then I'm going to have fun skiing...[censored] ah!

Well put. That post deserves a 10!! Lets go SKIING!!!

NERDS!

In all seriousness, it's part of the reason I'm buying the night skiing club card/advantage card combo this year. Not that Whitetail/Liberty/Roundtop are the most glamorous options out there (um, they aren't!), but at least I'll get a lot more bang for my buck.

So far, my intended trip west (to either Utah or Montana) has turned into a trip to New England (Saddleback, Wildcat, and friends, here I come!), and I don't know what else is going to change.

The local options aren't bad in a good winter, and being able to ski as many nights as I want for "free" (well, not exactly free, but no additional cost) will allow me to focus on the fun of skiing, instead of the financial issues associated with buying lift tickets.

I'd definitely rather try a new area every other weekend and head west in February, but I'm sure that I'll have a great time skiing the local options and I'll improve a lot so that when I take that next western trip, I'll be able to ski more of the mountains out that way.

I don't know if there are enough "hard core" skiers in the area to support all of the available mountains (Wisp, Whitetail, Liberty, Roundtop, Wintergreen, Bryce, Snowshoe, Timberline, Canaan Valley, Massanutten, etc), but hopefully it will be a strong enough winter to draw out the borderline skiers who only think about skiing when it's snowy...


aaron

Hear..hear!..like they say in the British Parliment...

Gas is 2.82 a gallon and falling here in Kansas.

Here are some things I'm happy about with the current economic circumstances (relax, it's Friday and we need to be a little happy over SOMETHING on a Friday night!). First, gas is crashing, yay gas! But far, far, far, far, FAR more importantly... I've received three credit card offers over the last six weeks. That's it. Criminy, I used to receive two or three a day. I HAVE MY MAILBOX BACK!!!

Okay, it's a small victory but you celebrate where you can, right?

The funny thing is, locally at least you'd be hard pressed to know a recession is going on. I've been out twice this week (once was a company event), and each place I've been was PACKED. The roads are still full of traffic, restaurants still have waiting lines, it's almost surreal.

So it makes me wonder about skiing this particular winter. Are folks going to ignore it and skate through in some end-of-world pathology? I mean, on the one hand, why not- if your choice is spend the money today or watch it evaporate tomorrow, why the hell not spend it. Or are people going to lock up their money and the spending is about to come to a grinding halt? Now, although that might lead to some bankrupt ski areas, I for one would enjoy skiing at an empty resort.

Oh, if anyone wants to feel really, really, really glum about what's going on, go check out the blog www.nakedcapitalism.com. It's like manic depressants on downers over there.

Yesterday gas at Costco in Winchester was $3.09 with gas at other stations between $3.23 and $3.29. Who was it on this forum just a few weeks ago who said we'll never see $2/g gas again???!

Hey now... I've made it almost to mid-terms now without putting my face in a book even once. Yeah, it is my last semester as an undergrad, but still... Who are you to talk? With all your geeky weather data and all..

GEEKY?!...How dare you ..Ok..Here is your payback...1st of all, what are you still doing up at 130 am young man?..Hey Roger- You know how everybody has been getting these pre approved credit card offers & you say yours have been slowing down?...Well David got his 1st offer the other day...it said.."You have been PRE DENIED!!" "You havn't been hitting the books & you spend too much time fishing & Leaf peepin"...LOOZZZA!

LOL, that's great!

Given how everything is going to hell faster than you can say "hey, is it just me or is it getting warm in here," yesterday I sent some friends an email wondering when we would see the following campaign ads:

Scene (John McCain, sitting on a stool): "Hi, I'm John McCain. Times are tough, and when times are tough you need a real leader, someone who can fight for you. That's why I'm urging to you vote for Barack Obama to be our next president. Please, please do not vote for me." (background voice: I'm John McCain and I approve this message)

Next ad (Barack Obama, sitting in a cozy chair in front of a fireplace). "Hi, I'm Barack Obama, and once again John McCain is lying. He tells you we need a real leader for tough times, and I agree with him. But I NOT THAT LEADER. John McCain is. Vote for him, or... or anyone, just don't vote for me. If he handled a POW camp for five years, he can handle this crap for four." (I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message)

Next ad (cue ladies voice): "Barack Obama, he SAYS you should vote for John McCain, but can you trust someone with so little experience? John McCain, a man who always puts his country first, says it's time for Barack to be the next president. Barack Obama: Ready to Lead." (I'm John McCain, and I approve this message)

Next ad (cue man's voice): "John McCain SAYS he puts country first, but when his country needs him, he lets politics get in the way. Elect Barack Obama, he says. How dishonorable. This year, vote for McCain for president." (I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message)

Really, why hasn't one of these clowns woke up and thought "what the hell am I thinking????" As long as they don't enforce the borders when we all are forced to flee south to "do jobs Mexicans won't do", that's all I ask...

Ski locally, but I've been doing mostly that for years. I'm not due for a western trip until the next economic up tick but long VT trips have been out for several years now. It's been tight for low-mid income families the last couple years.

In a strange way, my income stagnation sort o lead me to borrow against my 401k in the last year. Turns out I took my cash before the fall. Maybe I started the whole crash.

RogerZ -that is funny! A top 10 post! Why else would someone who lives in Kansas post on DCSKI. Please don't switch to KCSKI.

Canada maybe a better solution. There are no ski areas in Mexico. The thought crossed my mind after the election in 2004.

Your post is a classic!

Post early, post often I say!

Ultimate results? A bunch of ski resorts will shut down. I just really hope my local hill won't shut down. I guess Dynafit and Black Diamond will be making bank this year.

Small battles. I paid $2.95 a gallon on Sunday. My first fill-up under $50 in over 4 months. Not that it'll help what is left of my retirement investments. Let's see, the DOW jumped nearly 1000 yesterday. That means it'll fall 1500 today due to the greedy bastards who play there. I predict that gas will get to $2.50 by election day. After that, all bets are off. Regardless of who is elected, it'll still be the same old, same old. I agree with Roger. Don't know why anybody would want the job. Thought Bush would leave his successor some litter and debris not a toxic waste dump.

Vail resorts has announced that hotel booking are down 18% from last year, and that season pass sales are down 8%. It sure seems that the bad economy will mean fewer skier days this year.

Conversely, there is optimism in Vermont (or maybe spin): http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081012/NEWS02/810120317

Anyone hear how Intrawest is doing in this downturn?
The Colonel

Flying your Colors Kwill?? Or just trying to fit in with the "In" Obama crowd?...You really think this is all Bush's fault?...You are a whole lot smarter than that Comment, So I feel confident that you will refrase your post....Now you know I love you & your posts so don't get all whacked out of shape cuz I CKed you on that!...


PS..I'm no Bush fan...After he took care of American Buis in Iraq he went way down in my book on all fronts.. but fair is fair as far as blame goes..lets keep it real!

Less bookings means less idiots taking my knees out on the slopes!!!

As for the politics thing... Keep in mind it was Clinton urging Greenspan and banks to open up risky lending policy's to create this swath of 'first time home buyers' even if it mean lending to the sub-prime market on neg-arm and other risky loans. So much of what we are seeing now is a result of policies pushed from the early to late 90s.

Gas is 2.65 out here guys. Livin' the dream here in Kansas, I truly am. Maybe I should take all this cheap gas and drive out to Loveland this weekend instead of going camping? Start the skiing economy off right???

Gotcha, Andy. I have been "down" for a few weeks. Doesn't matter what happens on 11/4 cuz the slope will still be slippery for a half dozen years until we figure how to climb up it. Be it Whamma Bama or Lame McCain, just bring the boys (and girls) home, wack BinLadden for good, and fix the GW thing if it even exists. Got my quartly statement from AIG.... I could have bought one very nice new luxery auto for what this mess has cost me.
I'm done with the politico now.... but I needed to vent somewhere.

You should know by now that no one can slip a comment in that is counter to the Fishnski philosiphy. Dubyah has done a magnificent job

[quote=snowsmithDubyah has done a magnificent job [/quote] SURE...WATEVER U SA

$2.92 in Winchester with a $0.15 drop overnight from Mon to yesterday.

Who was it on here that said we'd never see $2.00/g gas again?!

Don't know about $2.00/gal but we should see $2.50/gal by november 4th....

Just in time to encourage you to vote [fill in the blank] eh?

Certainly is interesting the gas is dropping in price as we approach the election.
I doubt we'd see $2.00/gal gas anytime soon. Looking a little more long term than what has happened over the past several months, the supply ,again over the long term, cannot keep up with world demand. When that slippery slope is reached, I have no idea. But if we continue on the current path, it WILL happen. Then we're going to be reall sorry and there's going to be alot of finger pointing. And for all the naysayers, I am going to be the first to remind you.
The price run up this time was based on investor taking money out of stocks and real estate securities and placing bets on oil futures. The price went up, the economy went into the toilet and demand dropped. Thus the bets on oil futures over the short term were big losers.

Yawn Yawn... excuses excuses. Your boy is destined to go down in history as one of the three worst presidents in our history. And he can't ski. That's the reason.

Forget your Socialista tendencies Man i just cannot get past your handle, it's just so

I miss the "Leave it to beaver" Days... I Miss The "Greatest Generation"..Who by the way wouldn't have given Obama a Snowball chance in Al Gores Global Warming World Over a guy who has fought ,Bled & Suffered for this Country......& I miss Ronald Reagan...DAMB...I miss that man...

ummm - try not to live in the past. funny thing is, now that the u.s. govt is buying your bank, your mortgage, your retirement portfolio, the great republican party has manage to make you a socialist - heh so be happy. bet you never knew you were an Obama supporter, did ya? make sure you vote for him - it's in the republican party's best interest. oh no? the last three top polls on foxnews.com favored Obama. interesting, isn't it ...

Six word short story,

Plenty O Blame to go ar0und.

"Me not owned by government bailout"

Yet. Today. Maybe not tomorrow. Quite.

Let's see.... Dow down over 700 yesterday... It's like skiing on rentals, on OTW after an inch of crispy cream ice has coated everything. Impossible to stop the downward slide and with an inevitable crash looming before you reach the bottom.

How bad of job does someone have to do before you acknowledge it????? When Dubyah took office we had four years of surpluses, a projected $1.5 trillion future surplus. we weren't spending $10 billion a monther on war that we were lied to about, a war that is expected to cost more than a trillion dollars and I had a 401k instead of a 101k. Now we have a $10 trillion dollar debt (that's a $ 6.5 trillion turn around). a war that has lasted longer than our involvement in WW 2, a $750 bailout ov the financial industry (where was the oversight??).
I have voted for Reblicans and Democrats, I voted for Bob Erlich, Roscoe Bartlet, Andy Harris and for Democrats as well. I don't make a decision on my vote by what letter is after the guys name. Ask long the candidate stands upright (and that's questionable), has an 'R' after his name and offers you a tax cut (despite the red ink we keep running up for the next generation) you guys will vote for them. To me that is just plain stupid. So here is some advice to help you guys out:
1) find a comfortable chair so you don't hurt yourself
2) Bend over and place you hand on top of your head
3) Grab your head by your hair
4) Slowly pull on your hair to remove your head from between your buttocks cheeks
5) Suddenly see the world fromt the position of the 75% of the people who think the current President has done a miserable job
6) congratulations! you can see

- indeed - Well, at any rate, at least i know my skiing plans for feb 1 - april 15 : i'm back in park city my company is going to let me work remotely ! so despite the economy i'll still be doing some nice skiing.

Snowsmith,
Let's try to keep directly on target....the subject is the present difficult economic situation the country and many individuals find and its impact of the upcoming ski season; the subject is not how did we get into this mess, who's at fault, or even who can best get us out ot the mess.
NOW to the subject:
Prior to the recent stock market dive, the primary economic issue expressed as impacting the ski industry was the high fuel costs for plan, car and truck...and also the impact of the high fuel cost on all things ski related, such as making snow.
Now the cost of fuel is getting close to that of a year ago, not great, but certainly better than $4+ per gallon.
So my question: Is the ski industry better off with a bad overall economy and lower gas prices, vice versa, or are they unfortunately joined at the hip? Have we exchanged one negative impact for a worse one, or what?
The Colonel

I just paid $2.89 per gallon to fill up -- I think I saved about $15 from the highs of this summer. Why that's lunch for one at Whitetail! ;-)

While I figure electric will remain about what it is now (making snow won't likely get any cheaper this winter), cheaper petrol will mean lower food and fuel costs for many this winter (assuming the costs hold long enough to make their way thru system), not to mention the affordability of things like heating oil in some parts of the country, and so forth.

And... that's a good thing in a tight economy & may help folks get to the slopes!

Norman, it's still too early to assume that fuel costs will remain depressed for the upcoming winter. If they do, I believe that for the 90+% of those gainfully employed there will be no major changes. Maybe the big winners will be the local hills since I believe that travel to the west, the land of the canuck, or overseas will be down by about 20% as figures indicate currently.
Now if fuel costs go north, then the impact could push family owned areas close to the edge. The biggest problem, as I see it, is what is happening in the lending industry as well as corporate solvancy which are closely related.

Kevin, do you really believe that food and other commodity costs will go down for the consumer? I've rarely ever seen that happen. We will be hosed for every cent possible by the retail outlets, grocery stores and other services just because they can. Gas and oil costs can't hide with the recent price reductions on the commodity market. Transportation is a different issue. As long as we keep buying/paying for price inflated products and services, they shall remain inflated unless demand drops.

There's nothing but downward pressure on the price of oil right now; oil is trading at 72$ per barrel for Nov deliver. This is half what it was at a high - therefore prices at the pump will remain on a downward slope for awhile.

If the US economy roars back, which would kick China/India into gear too -- and/or OPEC had massive supply cuts -- then we'd see oil climb back up.

It helps for folks to drive less and have smaller cars too.

Anyway -- it does make a difference as oil is a component in almost all things we make and consume.

Your are correct...my apology. I just get so frustrated sometimes with that certain mindset that I can't control my fingers on the key board.

I am hoping, for our local resorts' sake that skiers will want to save money and ski locally. I have not yet signed up for a western trip due to financial uncertainty. As long as gas costs stay in the $3.00 range, I think local areas will do well. Folks are cutting back on spending. For example car sales these days are non-existant even for Japanese cars. However, all of the restuarants that I have been to lately have been packed. Perhaps people are trying to escape reality with a little night out with a reasonbly priced dinner?
Skiing is expensive, but hopefully families and skiers will want to escape reality and do a little skiing.

Airline prices seem unusually low as well for the winter travel season.

That's OK, Snow... I've been on this site since 1999 (4th oldest member) and seen the slings and arrows against those who dare challenge the Right (I mean wrong) voice. You can get Pailinized in a hurry.

My hypothesis is that with the downturn on the Bushconomy families will want to forego expensive trips. Still, the stress of a bad economy will translate into additional emphasis on the need for stress relief and that translates into shorter trips, area trips etc. If places like 7Springs, Snowshoe, Liberty, etc. are smart enough to capitalize on that, they'll do very well. Especially if they are able to subsidize some of the transport costs by either bus, rail or a tank of gas - or throwing dinners on a package deal to make it more palatable.

I'm staying put this year except for my stay at Snowshoe, and visits to Stowe and Tremblant.

Meanwhile, I'm watching the possibility of Snowshoe in the '20s this weekend.

DC ski areas will do great especially if Obama gets in & pumps up the allready largest wellfare system in the world...the federal Gov't! Sure..there are hard workers in Gov't & you know if your one of them, But going in & out of every Gov't building in DC for years I saw endless miles of cubicles of Gov't workers chatting with each other with coffee mugs in hand, Nothing but computer games showing on the moniters...& little partys here & there with food galore..Adding up the astronomical salaries with all the perks puts a hell of a burden on Joe the plumber & Andy the freight Guy!..So..yes, the Ski areas around DC will buck any noticable downward trend across the country.

OUCH!!! u rubbin salt into wounds, Andy. Actually, if Obams gets elected, we will see one hell of a turnover in the DC area with a new regime in power. A lot of Bush's folks out of work and relocating. There are too many patronage positions that will change and with the gear up those folks won't have the time this year to do a lot of skiing. It happens every time we elect a new president, especially of the opposite party.

Kwill, the turnover will happen regardless of who gets elected. The entire compendium of 9,000 political positions in the Plum Book (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/plumbook/2004/index.html) will be up for grabs. Especially if accross party lines.

I agree with you that there will be a lot of folks who will have excess time in DC, especially considering the transition happens on MLK weekend.

Some people might end up spending more time at local hills and less at destination resorts. But in general I think that you are going to see a contraction and drop in total skier visits and in $ per visit.

Also credit issues may keep resorts form making capital improvements and limit additional development. Ski areas are exactly the type of seasonal business that might depend on credit to keep running in the times.

Hey way to go, best of both worlds DC $$$$ and PC ****<snowflakes>..