Yes yes I know weather can change on a dime in the valley.....BUT....over the past couple days the NOAA forecast for zip code 26260 has been getting more and more favorable. Me and the wifey (folks keeping kid) head for TLine Thursday morning for my birthday weekend celebration. Birthdays actually Sat the 9th. The weather on NOAA is beginning to look nice. Maybe I will get a nice present of fresh pow

Latest GFS run gives 10-12" for Snowshoe by Sunday, and 8-10" for the Canaan Valley area. The forecast has been getting better and better. Keep your fingers crossed!

Hopefully I'll make it to the Valley this Sunday if the conditions look as good as they are saying......I am really tired of this not skiing crap....

I'll be at Snowshoe Friday-Monday. I have been expecting a skating rink, but it could turn out to be a decent weekend if the snow flies...

Only snow for the valley? I take it nothing under the 2500' mark will see anything but small flakes?

Looks like a good like a good ft+ (18 inches??) at shoe and about the same for the valley (17 inches??) with around a foot for wisp and 7 springs after a half-3/4 of an inch of rain. So realistically there will be no net gain in base but it will make for a much more enjoyable weekend of skiing in the powder. Expect the rain to change to snow tomorrow evening in the highlands and upslope to continue throughout the remainder of the work week dropping probably 6-10 inches at canaan and shoe and 4-8 at wisp and 7 springs. Then the real stuff comes on saturday with an additional 8-12 for the valley and shoe and 6-10 for wisp and 7 springs. Local areas will not be as blessed but hopefully a cold spurt next week will give them a chance to recover from this past week. Overall, everywhere should be good this weekend (little icy to begin with) and fantastic (epic??) early next week.

depends on the location, in WVA, prob 3-6 overall after the rain and throughout the weekend... dont quote me on this because i have little to no experience with the low elevation areas of WVA

I hope this is true. We arrive Friday evening for the weekend...our first trip to TLine. Right now, I'm not liking the weather one bit.

Just hope what was in the trees didn't all melt with the warm and the rain. We need that base to ski the glades. Too icy last weekend. So.... 18" + in the valley by Sunday eve
I feel a (cough! sniffle!) illness coming on (cough, ah choo!) for Monday.

Well.I was going to make My 2nd call this Morn to add to my "1st call for next weekend" post that I made early Sun Morn where I told you all to start making plans for this weekend but it looks like we got it covered by this thread. I'm seeing the cold & snow but not quite as confident(Yet!) about seeing as much snow as you all are talking about. I'll be up there this weekend & i'll be rooting you alls f-cast on!

i like your thinkin kwill! I'm already whispering sweet nothings in my co-workers ears about some short-notice vacation time early next week

You remember 2 weeks ago Crunchy where I posted about a possible big snow event for the 9th to 11th of Feb?...

I hope this weather changes soon. It is 65 deg. here with plenty of thunder and lightning and tons of RAIN...Did I mention today is Feb. 6th?? Isn't it supposed to be snowing?? Sorry I am mad right now...

Sorry don't cut it..Your post was Quite offensive & should be deleted

a Box of Rain will ease the pain, and love (snow showers) will see you through

Where are you guys getting your information?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...Field2=-79.4665

Above is for the valley of course. I don't know how you get a forecast for the 4000' level.

Here meaning good ole Lumberport, WV @ 1,000ft....

fishnski,
Whew!! Glad to see your post...I was afraid we had lost you.
By the way, I am taking my wife to the Homestead for Valentine's Day...what weather do you see for this weekend and next week there? Should they be able to recover from the current warm spell? Get some snow?
They have the weakest "snow report" I have ever heard: "All slopes are open"!
The Colonel

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...x=175&map.y=125
Denis,
The above reference is the NOAA forecast for Canaan Heights. If you have the Davis NOAA forecast simply click your mouse directly under the "v" in Davis, half way between Davis and Cortland. You can wander all over the mid-Atlantic doing this and getting pretty specific forecasts from the mountains to the sea.
The Colonel

I did that and I don't see any change in the words; I think you are just kidding yourself. I also don't see anything totalling more than a couple inches of snow, certainly not 18. Based on my past experience over almost 20 years, I'd bet that the 4000' level gets 6-8" by Sun. and that ain't bad but it ain't 18" either.

What you will experience at the Homestead over Valentines depends...on you. If you want a "chilly" F-cast then just run off skiing by yourself allday... But If you want it Warm & inviting..Hit the Hotsprings & Charm her pants off!...Now..Now...I meant that respectivly...I mean, Look at the Subject of this thread... just trying to keep it on track!

PS. Thanks for the kind remark Colonel..& Winter has just returned to the Alpps! As of 11am the 1st flake has dropped on the summit of MPC With more to fall down at lower elevations soon!

Just fyi, the point and click forecasts from the NWS are purely computer generated and never checked by a human. Most of the time they are fairly good and can compete with the forecasts generated by accuweather.com and weather.com (also computer generated). However, i would highly suggest you also read the forecast discussion at the bottom right of the point and click page to get a real forecast written by a real meteorologist. These will always be much more accurate and will explain the ambiguity of any upcoming storm system and the potential outcomes of the storm.

As for my forecast of a foot+ for the valley and shoe (I had said 18 as a guess... which is why i put the ?? after the number... was not to be taken too literally, a forecast for snow totals down to the inch 5 days out is always just a guess) i am going to stick with the 12+ forecast for the valley (12-20) and decrease my forecast for shoe to 10+.

The reason my forecast is for much higher totals than any other meteo outlet is predicting or most of you are predicting is that from my experience the valley always ends up surprising us with amazing totals in this type of an event (upslope/clipper). Also, as of now the WRF/NAM predicts 1.39 inches of accumulated precip. for canaan which at 12:1 would give 16.5 inches of snow (do not take this literally.. just a very rough estimate, probably inflated). This model has a much higher resolution than the GFS so it is much better at predicting precipitation for areas that can really pump out more from a storm due to upslope/lake effect. So I will stick with my guns with a prediction for a solid weekend of cold/snow.
Early next week is also looking good form some additional lake effect/upslope snow for the highlands.

L-Ski,Why are you dropping the shoes F-cast amounts down even with the Altitude there?..Is it because you see the system shaving north a little & the Arctic push & associated embedded Clips/Shortwaves Ect.. not digging south as much? I have noticed that the predicted temps down here in SE NC For Sun/Mon have risen a few degrees....

Yeah, next week doesn't look as bad as it did a couple of days ago...good for the Colonel hopefully at the Homestead. Speaking of the Homestead..That place sits in the middle of nowhere. It is east of the Alleghany Front but seems to be a generic version of it..Gets more snow than Wintergreen i Do Believe.

Well i had lowered it because models earlier today had the sat system going a little further north and giving sho les precip but now looking at the 00Z WRF it seems that the predicted precip at the valley and shoe is about equal... so maybe i can up the totals back to the same level as canaan.

Where are you guys finding these numbers? NOAA as of this morning is showing a mix for Davis all weekend. More rain than snow.

I,m running out the door..so real quick..I think L-ski is hedging his bet on the Valley being able to overcome the wet part & to enhance the Snow part...Beating the odds as the Valley has done so many times in the past...Weather F-casting Gamble!

i took that bet last thursday, friday didn't work out so good but saturday was schweet. Taylormatt look at the brite side u r going one way or the other???? no decision to make, if they're right u will be gold if noaa is rite well u'll be there anyway.


I'm still trying to decide.

The models have tempered a bit from my earlier enthusiastic analysis, but at a minimum SS will be in the 6-8" range by Sunday morning. That's my lowball, low-optimism forecast. I am still going to put my fat skis in the car, however, if that tells you anything. In other words, I am not ruling out some fresh delight on Sunday morning, above and beyond the 6-8" baseline.

Last year we were at SS on a "similar" weekend (weather-wise), with the forecasts calling for 4-6" by morning. Being the nerdy planner that I am, I got out there that morning on my mid-fat skis thinking everything would be hunky-dory. Halfway through the first run I was blasting through 10-12" of fresh overnight powder and was simultaneously kicking myself for not bringing out the fat skis. Unfortunately, all the trails out the back of the PowderRidge condo were groomed, so what I saw looking out the window was consistent with the forecasted 4-6". It wasn't until we got farther down into the basin that the true magnitude of the overnight snow became apparent. I made a run back to the condo for my fatties, killing precious time. That's when I learned to take the forecast with a grain of salt; if it says x inches of snow at Snowshoe, then it's normally safe to count on x+ inches.

Have yet to see a forcast for which we have access that is accurate with lake enhanced/effect snows in elevation. I look at
wind directions and speed, and the temps and make an educated guess and am usually right. When u look at the weather channel, it says northern WV mountains. That's a lot of territory to cover. Sometimes it's Elkins, sometimes it's Morgantown. One thing for sure....it's never Pickins.

Yeah, I have to go regardless since we're paid and the house rental is non-refundable. It just sucks to drive that far and pay to ski on and in sh!t when I could stay home and do that for free.

I love skiing on free sh!t. Better than paying to ski on sh!t.

No sh!t, now u gotta get some sh!t ski's for u quiver, do u haul those in the car or in the roof top box wit u kids??? wut kindo wax do u use on u sh!t skis? I'd never tune my own always take the sh!t skis to the shop!

Mebe I'll have a sh!t ski sale insted of a rock ski sale. BTW whots the difference between sh!t sk!!s and rock sk!!s anyway ????

I'm still taking the Mojo 90's just in case it actually snows down there.

I'm also doing a serious tune on the Blizzards...just in case it doesn't snow.

mods are much less robust with precip totals today compared to yesterday and last night. Still decent fall but not what i was hoping for. Also, the cold for the beginning of next week is not as pronounced but it does stay relatively cold throughout the week (about average for wed-fri) and the remainder of the forecast period.

Look..Everyone should still be excited...It doesn't look Epic(Ahem..as I said a couple of days ago)
but I gar-oon-tee there will be off & on snow from late tonite till late SAT nite when the main Arctic front comes thru with Howling winds & a decent drop of snow well into sun!...I've been wearing shorts & T-shirts for the last few days...I'm ready!

kwillg6 i don't know if u can see the difference but they tell me u can smell it....taylormatt take whatever u got cause u just never no what ur gonna need, me i got a one ski quiver, rockski=bumpski=allmountainski=powski=crudski oh you get it have a good time, u no u will.

Well, I ran out of room in the ski rack and am not taking my fat skis. This may put us over the edge and guarantee we get at least 10-12"....

Well I woke up to some unexpected snow on the ground this morning. I would venture to say about an inch. Looks like a good bit more than the Valley got though...

thanks for the picks david..Yeh.That was Canaans Donation or bribe to you foothillers so you would get excited about heading up this weekend. Sort of like a crack dealer giving you a free hit just to get you hooked!..that skiff is added to yesterdays skiff to be added to a little accum late this eve /mornin..& then lets see what the main event can bring us late sat/sun!

After all this snow talk, I pulled the trigger and reserved a room at Snowshoe Monday and Tuesday and I have to say I was a little dissappointed to see the NWS only reported 1" up there. Snowshoe just called it a dusting (it surprising that their webpage has usually claimed less than the NWS in the last 2 winters).

Is the snow still coming this weekend?

Well talk about a HUGE bust on my part. Models were completely off with this system, we ended up with more snow here in state college than canaan valley. Hopfully tomorrow's system is all snow for WVA and they can pick up some extra lake effect later in the week. Also, there is a large storm that keeps poping up on the models forecasted to hit soemtime next weekend that has potential to dump a fair amount of snow accross the entire region but it is all speculative at this point in time... just something to watch

WE ended up with a good 4-6" across the area. Not bad.

There was off & on Snow all day Sat & Sat Night We watched the most beautiful flakes fall from the Sky off my deck While we could still see Stars above..Magical!..then at sometime after 4am..BAM..Snow & Thunder!.That dropped a few inches & then Died down by Sunrise.....Then as we were Preparing to head up to TL to ski the Aft Session it started Dumping. As we headed up into Canaan Valley We experienced Complete Whiteout Conditions..That is so freaky when you can't see anything in front of you like someone wrapped your car in paper!
After we got to TL & Hooked up with my Brother He told me of Cars Being Ditched all over the place up & Down Route 32 & 93. Almost everyone lost power for awhile Sun Aft..Just shows you what a Half Foot & Wind can get you...Wild,Wonderful & Crazy West Va!....

Oh..I Forgot..It was 1 below 0 this morn at My Camp up at Canaan!..Lucky it was just a glancing Blow by that Arctic Front!

Hard to tell how much snow SS actually got, since the wind was so strong it blew everything off, but I would say 2" at most.

It was -6F when we woke up this morning around 7:30am.