From Herb Stevens (dec 29):
"Changes in the jet stream by the end of the first week in January will start to deliver the cold air that the east so desperately needs. The polar vortex, which has been parked right over the North Pole for the past 6 weeks or so, is going to split, with the biggest piece heading toward the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. In that position, it will be able to help pump up a ridge in Western Canada, which will help to deliver very cold air from Northwestern Canada. Now, the question is will the cold hold, or be yet another hit and run teaser. Ironically, the warm air that is going to invade Eastern North America later next week just won't disappear, but it will actually help to lock in more seasonable air. You see, the warmth will move to the Northeast, toward Greenland, where it will start to produce a negative NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation. The negative NAO is found when the higher latitudes are blocked up, with jet stream featured tending to stay in a setup that included a trough over the Eastern Untied States. That trough helps to keep cold air bottled up, and it prevents it from flowing off the continent, which is what we see when the NAO is in the positive phase, as it had been since early December.
The current version of the El Nino is steadily weakening, and previous warm Decembers that coincided with weakening El Ninos produced dramatic turnarounds in the weather by the middle of January, and that is where I think we are headed."
Assuming that the weather plays out as forecasted, I guess the big question from an economic point of view is whether the cold will arrive in time for the MLK holiday weekend.
Temps about 5 degrees cooler than the 30 year average are forecast to start spreading into the northeast and mid- atlantic by mid January, as El Nino dissipates and artic winds sweep down from Canada - according to AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi.
Ah yes, "Accu-Never". These are the same guys who, back in mid Dec., seemed to think that Cold Air was going to move into the Mid-Atlantic by the end of Dec. or within the first few days of Jan. And, we all know how well that's worked out. Frankly, I don't put too much faith in Accuweather beyond 5 days or so. I might add that the El Nino isn't really weakening right now; such an event is a very slow process that takes place over several months. However, I do believe that we're going to see some Cold Air move into the Mid-Atlantic before Jan. is over, but I'm going to be surprised if it lasts more than 5 to 7 days before more Mild Air swings up through the area. By the way, you might want to take a look at NOAA's Long-Range forecast map for Jan. and also view their 90 day Outlook map, both of these were updated on Dec. 29. It sure looks like this WARM trend is going to stick around until early Spring. Of course, NOAA, like all weather services, has blown forecasts before.
AWWWWWWWWWW, Dewd can't u read????
The topic is optimism
, ie the cognitive act of appraising the increased likelihood of good things. CAN U DOIT? Cmon u can do it, lose the pessimism you'll live longer, dont worry be happy
just do it, maybe someone'll give u another star.
Look last year it was cold in early Dec and I know WT was open 'cause I was there. Then it warmed up and it was UNSEASONABLY warm for a bit and then maybe in the first week of Jan it cooled and we got some cold air and we then had a fairly normal winter -- just shorter with that odd warm patch in Dec and part of Jan.
Therefore based on that unbelievable analysis of things, I venture to say this is more or less the same pattern we have now -- just a bit "deeper" -- the cold early went away sooner and now we have a warmer stretch, lasting longer.
In my mind -- that's probably the el nino bit kickin' in, who knows. And the strange cold/warm/then cold cycle in Nov/Dec(cold), part of Dec/Jan (warm), Jan (cold) -- perhaps part of some bigger cycle.
So chances are good some cold air will arrive next week or the week after, or after that...
Or after that...
Ok, so that's not so great but I don't think we are going right to desert anytime soon.
However if it pleases you to know, I still have the golf clubs out.
Actually, I was trying to be positive when I ended my post by stating that NOAA had blown forecasts before.
I think that managing to maintain an optimistic weather outlook while simultaneously being prepared for less-than-ideal weather and conditions is a necessity for a Mid-Atlantic skiing. Hey maybe we should all colloborate on a book, "Everything I need to know in life I learned from skiing in the Mid-Atlantic"!
I'll be happy just to see a healthy number of ski areas still operating in the Mid-Atlantic after another decade or so.
If Innacuweather is innaccurate over the long range why wouldn't the NWS. Let's fact it, this weather is really not very different from any other winter here in the Mid-Atlantic. However, I will say this warm spell lasted a littler longer. Last year the warm spell started 2 days after Christmas and extend until the MLK weekend. It is what it is.
I frankly have found the Skiing Weatherman to be more accurate than the other forcasters because he is an east coast guy who is dying to ski just like us. If these guys are accurate withing a few days I'd say that is pretty good good given that they need to look at the global weather picture to make such a forcast. I think it will get cold and it will last a week or so and then it will warm up again, but we will not have 4-5 weeks of warm weather. That is the Snowsmith prediction based on ....optimism and a glass of good scotch.
DEWD?? Mountain Masher's initials are MM...Massive Melting!Don't let him trick us with his lame attempts at bieng "Optimistic" We need to find an icicle to Impale into this Snow Diablo!
Nattering Nabob of Negativity
I agree that ANOTHER 4 or 5 weeks of warm weather isn't likely. What's likely, starting in Mid-Jan., is a classic up & down temp pattern with a few really cold days in the mix. At least that's your typical Mid-Atlantic Winter.
for a bit of optimism! Elliot Abrams (correction: Ken Clark, Clarke Kent's meteorological cousin) is gabbing that the El Nino could be coming in full force starting late next week, which would bode extraordinarily well for my trip to PC (and even more extraordinarily well for John L, who arrives the week after), and this cold front they're showing may be setting up to envelop the entire country for a while.
Rusty, make sure WT hasn't inadvertently stopped paying the snowmaking crew or something, they may be doing some overtime soon!
And even if it doesn't come true, hell, at least for the first time in... a month????... there's some models for hoping on out there!
You are just too.... optimistic. :P