NOAA OUTLOOK - MILD WINTER FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY
November 14, 2006
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Vary few acorns this year = cold winter, deep snow
also = sucks to be a squirrel
The squirrels in my yard are FAT. They are part of my strategic food reserve in case my luck goes bad!...NOAA predicts a mild winter?..GREAT that means it will be cold & snowy!!!!
The wooly worms that I've seen are predicting a mild Winter. But, the Farmers Almanac is predicting a cold and snowy Winter over most of the US. However, to me the Farmers Almanac is good for entertainment purposes only.
NOAA has been predicting a mild Winter since mid-Summer, before an El Nino started forming in the Pacific Ocean. I had hoped that recent El Nino data would indicate a WEAK El Nino event, which often brings slightly below normal temps and lots of snow to the mountains of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. However, it now looks like it's going to be a moderate El Nino, which usually results in slightly warmer than normal temps and less than normal snowfall. At any rate, NOAA sure seems to be sticking to it's forecast of a mild Winter. Over the decades I've noticed that mild Winters seem to come in clusters of 2s or 3s, so I wasn't too surprised when NOAA called for a mild Winter again.
Of course Global Warming is now somewhat of a factor. The only way that the mid-Atlantic can receive any really cold air is when an "Alberta Clipper" pushes down from Canada. The size of the Arctic air mass (during a typical Winter) is now significantly smaller than it once was; plus, the Northern branch of the Jet Stream has weakened somewhat. So, frigid Canadian air simply doesn't push South into the mid-Atlantic nearly as often as it once did. And, when some Canadian air finally does find it's way into the mid-Atlantic, it doesn't seem to linger as long. As a result, the ski areas of the South and mid-Atlantic have gotten used to making snow in relatively warm temps (between 26 and 30+ deg), sometimes for just a few hours a night.
FEW?! You haven't seen the oak trees in my yard. Right now as I type this acorns are falling off that tree in mass sounding like rain. It's been that way for the last week. Even the driveway under the one oak tree is so littered with acorns that you have to kick them back to see gravel underneath. I haven't seen the acorns fall like this in years.
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Vary few acorns this year = cold winter, deep snow
also = sucks to be a squirrel
Yeah I don't know...I haven't seen to many acorns in the valley this year though but I haven't taken a good sample size or done any hard core data collecting was just throwing a wivestale in hoping for a dumpalishous winter since the last two were lame....but O.K. then ...good to be a sqiurrel ...sucks to be a skier???
How about this one strong hurricane season last two winters =weak winter...no big hurricanes this summer= strong winter...
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Of course Global Warming is now somewhat of a factor. The only way that the mid-Atlantic can receive any really cold air is when an "Alberta Clipper" pushes down from Canada. The size of the Arctic air mass (during a typical Winter) is now significantly smaller than it once was; plus, the Northern branch of the Jet Stream has weakened somewhat. So, frigid Canadian air simply doesn't push South into the mid-Atlantic nearly as often as it once did. And, when some Canadian air finally does find it's way into the mid-Atlantic, it doesn't seem to linger as long. As a result, the ski areas of the South and mid-Atlantic have gotten used to making snow in relatively warm temps (between 26 and 30+ deg), sometimes for just a few hours a night.
MM how can you say this! That is totally untrue, global warming cannot account for seasonal temperature variations and the little warming that has occurred is unsubstantial. I do not want to start a global warming debate or hijack this post but I thought this needed to be clarified.
langelyskiier, one thing that we can both agree on is that the issue of Global Warming should not be re-hashed on DCSki. However, let me just say that I totally disagree with your OPINIONS (not actual facts). The average temperature increase in North America over the past 20 years has been significant if not substantial and Global Warming DOES have an effect on seasonal temperature variations. Anyway, that's what about 85% of the scientific community now believes. So, it's clear that you're going with the minority opinion, which is OK. Needless to say, in the interest of epic skiing, I sure hope that I'm wrong and you're right!
NOAA is out to lunch. Same folks who told us we were headed for a monster hurricane season now tell us it will be a warm winter... I'll think of this thread when I'm putting on the chains on the Jeep this Feb as I head off to Snowshoe...
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NOAA is out to lunch.
Spoken like a true FEMA guy! 
Sorry Lou, couldn't resist.
MmmmMashman! I was beginning to think BKTim and the NSA had you hauled off to an undisclosed location in the sunny Carribean. Welcome back.
Thanks tgd! Lookin foward to an awesome Winter!
lbotta, When NOAA made their original 2006 Hurricane prediction, they had no way of knowing that a moderate El Nino would develop. El Ninos change the upper level wind patterns across the Atlantic Ocean. These changes result in strong winds that tend to shear the tops off of tropical depressions soon after they form. And, when tropical storms do manage to gain strength, they are often pushed away from the US during El Nino years. I still think that the seasonal outlooks issued by NOAA are more accurate than most other sources.
Ok, Its now colder up at Canaan (30 degrees) than way up north at an eskimo town called Kuglutuk (32). We are already talking temps in the mid 20's up at the tippy tops of the WV Alps! Upside down Warming?..No way , It was 43 below 0 at summit,Greenland this morn...The earliest snow EVER for Chicago..by 6 days!! A few lows were broken & life goes on...Mama nature is doing her thang...Surf Temp 75 degrees still down hear in the carolinas(normal)..Carry on!
Its Dumping Snow in Buffalo..earliest ever heavy Lake Effect snow Warning...I've got my theory whats yours Mr Mash?
Hey, I also heard about the snow up in Buffalo early this evening while listening to AM 1520, Buffalo's "Left Station". Perhaps some of the Western NY ski areas will start thinking about firing up their snow guns soon.
From what I can tell, the NOAA Winter Outlook calls for a large dome of unusually mild air to form in the upper Mid-West and gradually push East as the season goes along. So, it seems that, IF we are going to get lots of mild weather this Winter, most of it is going to come late in the season. Hopefully, either NOAA's long range forecast is wrong, or the mild air arrives AFTER most ski areas have put down a deep snow-base.
NOAA continues to call for a mild and relatively dry Winter in the mid-Atlantic as the El Nino strengthens in the Pacific. Although the past couple of months have been cooler and wetter than normal in the Mid-Atlantic, the weather patterns of early and mid Fall aren't much of an indicator for the Winter to come. However, should the El Nino start to moderate, we could be in for lots of wet snow and ice this Winter.
One local PGH forecaster, however, recently predicted colder than average winter with above average snowfall (13 inches above average for this year vs. 8 below for last year). He claimed that all the 'patterns' were setting up very similarly to the winters of 92-93, 93-94 which were relatively harsh.
I use my magic 8-ball to predict such things. This year, when I asked, if it was going to be a cold, snowy winter it said "maybe." I think that's as accurate as any forcaster who makes good money for being correct 50% of the time. Besides, the squirrels in my yard are unbelieveably big and fat. That's gotta mean something.
Squirrel roast at Kims
Yup, very cold and snowy, i've checked w/cuzzin rob and he tells me the indians, oops, native americans are collecting firewood like crazy
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Kim that just means they've been chowing down at the local fast food joint's dumpster.
I haven't changed my winter prediction: December will likely be colder than July, good chance of snow sometime between Thanskgiving and Easter, warming trend to commence in earnest around April 1st, give or take a couple weeks. I'm willing to bet a fat roasted squirrel on that one!
Ahhh, Roger, those flatland have really effected your ability to reason. But that's ok.... Squirrel pie, squirrel BBQ, and stuffed squirrel at my place when the "big one" hits in December!
Go easy there now. Remember the big one hit last December then buggered off on vacation for a few months putting in a half arsed appearance somewhere around mid February.
Sorry, I get carried away thinking of snow, skiing, and fat squirrels!
Man all this talk about "fat-bottomed squirrels" has got me hungry. There were some cardinals pecking away in my backyard today... then there's a couple cats that wander around the neighborhood... mmmmmmm... hey did someone mention something about the weather on this message thread???
