Jimmy,
Dang! I guess I'd better cut out all that Mexican food!

-Warren-

Duly noted that anecdotes about global warming (or anything about the climate) is pretty much rubbish. Isn't hiking to a glacier amazing Kev? I hiked to the Carbon Glacier on Mount Rainier this April and although it was only a 2 1/2 mile hike (one way) it was probably the most spectacular hike I've ever done. It felt like another world and I hiked to the foot of the glacier- where you weren't supposed to go because you might die- utterly mesmerized. Watched rocks larger than my head bouncing off the 150 foot ice face and smashing on the debris field around me.

The photos at the base of the hike clearly demonstrated the glacier has been on the retreat; I think almost every glacier in the Lower 48 is in reverse right now. But yeah, some glaciers are advancing. When I was in Alaska back in 2001 the local papers were still talking about two glaciers that had just surged.

Apparently sometimes there's enough pressure built into a glacier that it expands a couple miles in a couple months. It's called something like "surge" and is a pretty amazing phenomenon. Scientists still aren't sure about what exactly causes one glacier to just bust loose like that.

I think glaciology would be a wonderful field to be in. Though John McPhee writes that volcanology is even more amazing. You can't ski a lava field though.

Rog, nice tie-in to skiing at the end, I was WORRIED. But you forgot to add the 'like' to it. As in 'you can't ski it LIKE my favorite mid-atlantic ski run: (your favoritate run here)".

That is very very important to say! do not forget!

As for glaciers & volcanos. In NZ they have live volcanos somewhere off the coast, the north island is active -- and in fact one of the big tourist draws is this lake that still has steam rising out of surrounding area. The lake was a big volcano and then it blew up and formed the lake... err I think i got the story right.

BUT YOU CANNOT SKI ON THAT LAKE, at least snow ski, like at my favorite Whitetail run: Bold Decision with VW Bug sized moguls on it.

However, you can SKI DOWN in the south island which doesn't have any volcanos BUT does have lots of GLACIERS.

But you cannot ski down the glaciers (only a mad-man would try such a zany thing) -- but you can ski around QUEENSTOWN area, if they have snow. Perhaps you will enjoy skiing down a run there that reminds you of YOUR favorite RUN HERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC.

Now -- as for melting. Well it was colder for a few hundred years and them glaciers got bigger, now it is warmer and they be shrinkin. This we do know for a fact. And that's all I have to say about that!

As for volcanos, recently someone died in a volcano explosion in NZ, except they weren't actually in NZ but on a nearby island. They were not SKIING but they were a vulcanologist, and they were looking for Spock. Naw, that was a joke. But they really were a volcanologist, studying volcanos and they did not make it when the volcano made a puff. Which was a tragedy.

Which reminds me of the time when my pizza fell off my plate and onto my ski boot during lunch at Whitetail. I wasn't watching where I was walking and daydreaming about my favorite ski run: bold decision with vw bug moguls...when I slipped and the pizza fell to the floor, but onto my ski boot first. It was a tragedy.

More unscientific research by global warming alarmists, this time at the notoriously partisan National Research Council. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13474997/

For all of you skeptics or disbelievers for convenience (i.e. slacker generation who don't want to commit to anything other than changing the batteries in your remote control), let us all looks at this with a little common sense, as an engineer would:
Q:What are fossil fuels?
A: Stored solar energy
Q: What happens when you burn millions of years worth of stored solar energy in less than 100 years and exhaust the by products to our atmosphere
A: Perhaps you would agree that there would be some change in our atmosphere, eehh?

It really simple physics, isn't it. For every action there is an equal reaction. What exactly is the equal reaction to burning millions of years of stored solar energy? Is it the greenhouse effect? Is this a temporary abomination that will dissipate by the equal reaction? We shall see. But my point is all you folks who think that you can drive your Hummer, burn copious amounts of electricity, with the results being huge amounts of waste products exhausted to the atmosphere and it will not have an effect - I say your just plain stupid, stuborn, naive or just don't care.

So then the faster we burn it the sooner the next ice age comes? We do waste so much energy in this country.........we've come to the point of growing corn not to feed people but to burn in our cars ....so we can drive to Tline or <insert favorite MidAtlantic ski area here> to ski......so what about some of your favorite days from last season?

KevR- your reply had me in stitches! That was Jimmy-like in it's pure brilliance. It should be honorarily added to the Untopic as one of the great posts on this site. It was almost as brilliant as my favorite run in the Mid-Atlantic, Bold Decision covered in VW-sized moguls, but very little is that brilliant...

I think I'll make a separate post regarding the latest global warming comments.

rz, you may find this informative and topical -- http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/CarbonCycle/

While skiing in utah next year, can think about it some more...

You never skipped school,did you ProfesserZ? Hows the temps running down in kansas? Anyway the bottom line in the Global warming argument is if man is the root cause. Did you all know that you can find shark teeth up in the Arizona MTN's? There must have been some serious warming going on in our past that wasn't caused by man! We had a cool spring & have not experienced any unusual heat waves so far this summer down on the coast of the carolinas.So, Everything is KOOL here......CHILL!

Cool site, thanks for the link Kev! Not as cool, of course, as Timberline after a two foot powder storm, which is by far some of the best conditions in the Mid-Atlantic, but whatever it's June now...

Yes I guess were all a little hypocritical, aren't we. Who knows, maybe global warming is caused by human flatulence. We really need to ban baked beans and Mexican food, especially in combination with beer. This could be deadly to the planet.

Looks as if all those partisan hack underwriters at Lloyds of London are in on the Gore climate change conspiracy. Is there no end to this unscientific hoax? http://www.lloyds.com/News_Centre/Features_from_Lloyds/Climate_change_adapt_or_bust.htm

Maybe we are all really living in a Matrix world, plugged into a giant mainframe feeding us what to think when really it's an ice age going on outside and if we just unplugged ourselves, we could ski off the top of the capital and land in 20' of fluffy powder. :P

Here's the deal about Global Warming in the Mid-Atlantic. If the Tree Hugger, Al Gore crowd (which includes me) are correct about Global Warming, we will see a number of Mid-Atlantic ski areas close within the next 15 years or so (if not sooner). Lets face it, a couple of ski areas are on the edge (weather-wise) right now, so even a small increase in the average Winter temp would likely spell disaster for them. On the other hand, if the Conservative, anti-Green crowd is correct, nearly all of the Mid-Atlantic ski areas will stay open; plus, we will probably see a couple of new ski areas open over the same period. At any rate, I would say that it's going to take another decade to see what's really going on with Global Warming in the Mid-Atlantic. By the way, I'd like to thank Roger Z for a great post with lots of good data on Global Warming.

[QUOTE) I mean, if energy is burned with 100% efficiency, there is no by-product at all. If the by-product is something that creates opacity- say, H20 that increases cloud cover- the result could be reducing the amount of solar energy that reaches the planet and a subsequent cooling of average global temperatures.


I know of know human invented electro-mechanical process that burns energy with 100% efficiency, especially the process we are referring to (i.e. burning fossil fuels). There is strong evidence supported by literally thousands of scientific institutions that suggest with the vast discharges of CO2 into our atmosphere( not H2O as you suggest) are affecting our climate. I mearly suggest that if you look at it from a commons sense and somewhat scientifically, we have exhausted the by products of hundreds of millions of years of stored solar energy into our atmosphere. And I believe that the nay sayers out there who think that this phonominen has no affect on our climate are doing so for their own convenience, in my opinion. It reminds me of the Chevy Suburbans, Ford Excursions and Hummmers I see driving with one person and a "Support our Troops" bumper stickers.

As a followup to RogerZ's nicely worded thesis, I can only add the following: Check out http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/history_of_climate.html.

Especially take a look at Figures 1.2 through 1.6.

I may not be the brightest bulb in the drawer but it looks like the earth has had some pretty warm weather long before mankind was in a position to seriously muck things up. That's not to say we all aren't doing a number on the environment now but even if we trashed every car and rode horses up to Timberline in the winter, that might not stop the trend.

Hey, that just gave me an idea. If all the ice does melt, maybe Mount Porte Crayon would make a good beachfront marina instead. You could have grass skiing and snorkeling in the same resort. You catch that Bill Bright! Remember where you heard it first.

yellowdog i must compliment you on the way you tied both posts into skiing in the mid atlantic, KevR would be proud

"......food I send with you. At the gate of the forest I must ask you to send back my horse and my ponies. But I wish you all speed, and my house is open to you, if ever you come back this way again.

They thanked him, of course, with many bows and sweepings of their hoods and with many an at your service, O master of the wide wooden halls! But their spirits sank at his grave words, and they all felt" grateful that he was riding a pony and not driving a Hummer!

Snowsmith- I didn't mean to imply that H20 was the by-product. I was just using it as an example of what a by-product might be. Another possible by-product is unusually long posts on websites.

I'd also be more than happy to concede that humans have an impact on the environment. At the micro level, every city is a heat island and who knows how many creeks and rivers we've pretty much killed thanks to our pollution (I once read that there is only one creek left in West Virginia that still has a natural stock of trout, the rest of the creeks need to be stocked because of the acid from mining). On a macro level, almost every species when it reaches a certain biomass has an impact on its environment. It's one of the major drivers of evolution. The only way we could assume that humans don't have some impact on the environment is to assume that we are somehow outside of the environment, which makes no sense at all.

But from this observation, an extremely difficult question arises: given that we cannot NOT have an impact on the environment, how much of an impact should we as a species have? I think the fundamental divide in the global warming debate- the 800 pound gorilla in the room that no one likes to talk about- is a basic disagreement about the trade-offs. There is more than one side of this issue, but some positions probably include: 1) those who are afraid to concede that we may be adversely impacting the environment because they believe that such a concession will require a drastic change in our lifestyle; 2) those who think that a change in our lifestyle will do more harm than good; 3) those who think that a change would do more good than harm; and 4) those who are afraid to concede that our impact on the environment may not be harmful for fear that such a concession will not require a change in our lifestyle. For a number of reasons, I fall somewhere near the second of these categories, though being a former risk manager- and more importantly, being a LOVER OF SKIING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC!!! - I hedge my bets to some degree.

Yellowdog I liked your link, but think it's more entertainment value than anything else. The one thing that might be of interest if true was that in their 2000 year timescale, large temperature changes appeared to be take a fairly short time to occur, as a rule. But again, I'm dubious as to how much stock to put into the charts.

Time to call the "missus"...

Roger - your present your arguments well. Yes, each human leaves his foot print. However, I think that nature has a balance that is upset by human activity. And I am not talking about one human being, I am talking about billions of us. Perhaps we are an aberation on this planet. Sometime it almost seems like we don't belong, but that is a philosophical question that we cannot address. If you look at the big picture, and I mean the real big picture, you can take the approach that - well our sun will super nova someday and we're all going to be fried anyway, or the earth has been here for billions of years and we're just a spec here in the 20th and 21st century, So who really gives a crap. We can just throw up our hands and say, who cares, I'm not altering my lifestyle. Well, I believe that the earth will bring itself back into balance to offset the huge volumes of CO2 and other gases that result from the immense burn-off of fossil fuels. This will take a very long time and the consequences are going to be a rise in sea level, climate change resulting in the loss of our coastal areas, drought, famine, etc. For example, Mt. Kilamanjaro in Africa was snow capped for 11,000 years. It is estimated in 10 years there will be no more snow pack on this mountain (so much for skiing Bushmen). The result will be the anticipated spring snow melt supplying water will not happen. So the folks around Mt. Kilamanjaro will HAVE to change their lifestyle since their water supply will not be there anymore. A similar situation could happen the American Southwest where snow melt is their major source of water. So you see, you may not want to alter your lifestyle, but you may have to. Interestingly, one possible scenario is that the melting of the polar ice caps may actually cool the middle latitudes of the planet, thus we may have a longer ski season here in the Mid-Atlantic. So let's get out there with our gas guzzlers and produce some CO2!

The whole issue is pretty simple if you just think about it logically (I know nothing about the so called science). The earth has been warming since the ice age. Man has added some fuel to the fire. The result will be some snow melting, longer growing seasons, shorter ski seasons in some areas (and possibly longer in others), higher water table. Certain societies will be displaced or have to change thier lifestyles. Some will voluntarily change lifestyles to reduce the human footprint. Nature will take it's course and things will cycle again. The higher moisture and plant growth will offset warming by absorbing greenhouse gases and cooling the planet. Momentum will build in the opposite direction leading to an ice age - and EPIC skiing from Maine to Georgia. Time Frame - one million years. Also - isn't the sun getting smaller everyday as it burns?

snowsmith, good post. We're now learning that the earth's eco-systems and climatic systems are quite fragile. The sheer number of humans on the planet has put most eco-systems under extreme pressure. Added to that are massive amounts of green house gasses that are produced every day and the constant destruction of forests, especially the rain-forests. So, it's not the least but surprising that we're seeing a general warming tend with lots of extreme weather events. Man has decided to mess with "mother nature" at his own risk. Now, lets all go out and support the economy and buy a jumbo sized SUV!!!!

Okay, I liked both MM's and Snowsmith's post... what is the world coming to? The comments about the SUVs were hilarious. I can just see it: five years from now I'll be driving a hybrid with a "Love Your Mother" bumper sticker and Mountain Masher will run me over in his Ford Hummamunga while on his way out to ski at Blue Knob. Stranger things have happened!

ps- though I need to throw these links in. This web page purports to show that water vapor is the number one greenhouse gas:

http://www.clearlight.com/%7Emhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

Though it seems to me the most reliable source in his footnotes comes from 4a, which shows that water vapor- while making up at least 50% of greenhouse gases may not make up 95% as the article claims (the reason, apparently, is because scientists cannot distinguish the principle cause of heat trapping within certain spectral bandwidths):

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html (spectral overlap reduced potential heat trapping from water vapor)

(and, incidentally, both of these make a hash of my earlier assertion that water vapors may contribute to global cooling. Apparently, BIG NO)

And, finally, all those Kyoto nations are having trouble meeting their objectives:

http://www.euractiv.com/en/sustainabilit.../article-156338

While the U.S. not only has less carbon intense emissions than the global average:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html (see particularly Figure 6 and explanation)

but is also reducing its carbon intensity quite rapidly:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/press272.html

One of the most common arguments that the Right-Wing likes to offer (to discount the idea that modern-day human activity affects Global Warming) is that there have been other extremely warm periods within the past 10,000 years. Although, it's true that there have been some mild periods (prior to the current Global Warming), no warm spell within the past 10,000 years even begins to approach the current warm-up. Case-in-point, the scientific evidence shows that Mt. Kilamanjaro in Africa has ALWAYS had an ice cap over the past 11,000 years and perhaps longer. Yet, the ice cap on Mt. Kilamanjaro is almost gone and will be completely gone within a decade!

Murph - I think the point that your missing is that most of the change that has occured to Mt. Kilamanjaro's has happened over the last 10 years. Thus the change is accelerating. And I believe that the reason your map doesn't show the status of the glacier is that there is none and there hasn't been one for a long time.

I agree, the important thing to remember about the on-going Global-Warming event is it's RATE, which is unprecedented in the past 100,000 years or so. That's why so many species are becoming extinct or are near extinction, they simply can't adapt fast enough. If the warming continues to accelerate at it's current pace, we're in real trouble. However, some scientists think that the current acceleration is caused (in part) by a short-term climatic cycle that will abate in another 10 years or so.

Doesn't the whole thing now turn on costs --- do we spend money NOW to bring CO2 levels back to 'historical norms' -- or do we wait until its absolutely 100% clear that runaway C02 levels are producing a man-made global warm up on the planet ... and then spend money to try to fix the problem?

Your call...

Scott with all due respect, please CHECK the definition of the word "FORUM" in the dictionary.

you know, Boarderbabe was rite - this has gone too far. Guess what everybody, we're all screwed. It may be just a blip on the radar or a long-term trend, fact is there is a meltdown. And guess what, the USA will always, ALWAYS be the cause in the worlds' eye, because the thing that makes us all well-off n the US is the thing that makes us most-hated. Sorry fact-of-life unless you invoke the Danish-love stuff which is nice but not really relavent. Suck it up:

1) The world is really getting warmer, at least for the "short-term" which means at least our generation's lifetime... or longer. Sorry that's it.

2) The US is really the greatest producer of CO ... if or if not that has anything to do with it it really does not matter, your are guilty now with no recourse.

3) No one likes you. PERIODE. Get use to it or move to another country, like that will help.

5) It's a be-atch to be hated.

6) No one said you are going to be loved; the rest of the world things the USA sucks and that is the way it is. That's what you get for being the most afluent country in the world. Gee life is so tough. We all get to ski and drive our cars and watch TV at night and eat until we are full.

7) .. suddenly, I find myself quite embarrased being a person in the US. Our country was founded by the greatest people on Earth, but now what? I wonder what our founders would think of us now ... not a whole not, I'd reckon.

8) I expect this will be my last message; I'll get totally flamed for it, but at least it's my thoughts...

.. and I will still be skiing, free and doing it. Scorn or not.

".. Better to burn-out, than to rust away. My my, hey hey.." - Neil Young

I think, perhaps unfortunatly for you, that the term "forum" implies public discussion, check out dictionary.com for example on the two or three typical definitions of the word.

For most folks (in my opinion) an intuitive understanding of the word would suggest freedom to write and post what they want -- if you have to exercise more editorial control, then I suggest you spell that out more clearly when you sign up to be a site user, and well do it then.

In terms of content, I (obviously) fall into the catagory of a more lax policy in this area, subject to some sort of vague community standard on morals (i.e. no porn, etc...)

Then in my mind this discussion, well not this one but the one on global warming, is fine and even topical to skiing, but only in a very long term sense.

In addition, folks have been reasonble nice, and i don't think there's been much name calling per se...

And I might add, I'm glad to see some folks delving more into the details themselves instead of just dismissing things entirely without any thought.

Hey Crush ... hope you're still out there.

Consistent with your tone, I think it's actually "Hey Hey My My ........Rock and Roll will Never Die!

Now I've got to go listen to it.

Jimmy,
"They say the heart of rock and roll is still beatin'...and from what I've seen I believe em.....The 'ol boy may be bearly breathin'.. but the heart of rock and roll, the heart of rock and roll is still beatin' ..boom boom....boom boom..."

-Warren-

Nah, folks- it's "Set Me Free" by Reckless Kelly, perhaps the only song ever written about the glories of skiing (that and it's a GREAT song)! This clip has the key verse in it:

Set Me Free