Could Winter Really Be Coming
February 9, 2006
42 posts
17 users
8k+ views
We've seen the forecasters talk about cold blasts in the long range forecast for some time but it finally appears as though it's going to make it here.
Now this source is
ACCUWEATHER but they sure seem to be confident this time. Let's hope they're right.
This is kind of a good-news/bad-news scenario. According to the Accuweather 15 day forecast for Northern VA, the arctic blast is not going to hit until Feb. 10. Between now and then, there will be a fair number of mild days, which is likely to further reduce the base of some ski areas.
If it does get cold-cold in that time frame, will any of local resorts make substantial amnts of snow -- would it be worth it that late in the season? I mean sure, to avoid an early closure they might make *some* snow, I'm talkin' about really getting the coverage up to our missing-early season par.
The Weather Channel has been showing the break coming this Sunday for several days now and has stuck by that prediction. What they're showing is a return to near-normal temperatures, though nothing arctic so far. The good news is that near-normal is still colder than what we saw in January, so ski resorts should be firing the snow guns up.
KevR, to answer your question... it's tough to say. The big weekend coming is President's Day Weekend, the last chance for a lot of resorts to bring in some serious revenue, so they will run the snow guns between now and then every chance they get. I imagine that Snowshoe, Wisp, and Seven Springs will crank the guns even after that to show that they're the big boys in the region. Maybe the mid-sized destination resorts in the mountains will, too (T-line, Wintergreen, Homestead). The big question is the local hills- will Snotime keep playing?
Overall, I think they will run the snow guns afterward if they need to in order to get to their annual first weekend of March closing. None of this, however, assumes any natural snow will fall. If WV gets another 6 foot March, snowmaking might be a moot point...
I recall Tline making snow well into March last season - even though global warming kept natural snow totals down to 70" that month.
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The Weather Channel has been showing the break coming this Sunday for several days now and has stuck by that prediction. What they're showing is a return to near-normal temperatures, though nothing arctic so far. The good news is that near-normal is still colder than what we saw in January, so ski resorts should be firing the snow guns up.
Snow may come even sooner depending on where you are. Temperatures are forecasted to be marginal this weekend. Rain in most areas should be snow in the Mountains. The switch over to snow may occur as early as Friday afternoon in some places.
Here's a great Google site that displays weather data on a map from personal weather stations all over the country. It really illustrates the major differences that can occur in temps between the mountains and immediately surrounding areas. The weather station listed in Canaan Valley is at Pointy Knob on the south end of the valley.
http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp?zip=26260&magic=1&wmo=99999
For those who like to keep tabs on the stats -- here is how January in Pittsburgh closed out:
27 of 31 days above normal temps;
overall, january was 10.6 degrees above normal making it the warmest jan in 56 years (8th warmest on record).
jan snowfall was about 7 inches below normal
They have been saying it for a long time now.....here it is...rain/snowshowers turning to all snow sat nite (thats the 4th..10 days ago I said the 2nd or 3rd..sue me) & then with the coldest air of the season passing over the lakes the LES really kicks in by SUN aft! Below norm Temps & snow chances thru the middle of next week...Stay tuned!.....NWS
It figures the weather finally turns to Winter just as I'm about to leave for Vail on Friday, Feb 10. Hopefully, the cold sticks around for about a month after that.
Well the pro mets on Eastern Wx are starting to get excited. Beginning this weekend we are in for some weather with the Alleghenys getting a whole bunch of the GOOD white stuff. Several of the guys are already woofing and Dave Tolleris, the badboy of MidA weather pros, has this comment to make:
"I am extremy excited about the feb 6 midwest snowstorm and Mid atlantic snow FEB7 ... and the monster snowtorm for FEB 9-10 that i see for the entire Mid Atl and new england coast
Not this event."
-not this event-is in reference to the potential weather this weekend. BUT ... monster snowstorm for MidA? BRING IT ON!!!
Works for us ... we will be at Snowshoe this Thurs thru next Monday and hoping to get snowed in ... its happened to us twice before!
Hmmmm .. wonder if anyone at SS knows enuf to give a couple of powder lessons!!!
WOOF, WOOF
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It figures the weather finally turns to Winter just as I'm about to leave for Vail on Friday, Feb 10. Hopefully, the cold sticks around for about a month after that.
hockeydave dont you worry, i'll guarantee a huge mid atlantic snowstorm, epic in fact, should start on oar about march 3 (day we fly to SLC). That's what happened to me last year, you could call me murphy, .
Wow, so it looks like my Feb 9-12 trip to Snowshoe, planned back in October, may in fact be FREAKIN AWESOME!!! After the mostly lousy January we've had, this would be a welcome change.
Craig
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Well the pro mets on Eastern Wx are starting to get excited. Beginning this weekend we are in for some weather with the Alleghenys getting a whole bunch of the GOOD white stuff. Several of the guys are already woofing and Dave Tolleris, the badboy of MidA weather pros, has this comment to make:
"I am extremy excited about the feb 6 midwest snowstorm and Mid atlantic snow FEB7 ... and the monster snowtorm for FEB 9-10 that i see for the entire Mid Atl and new england coast
Not this event."
-not this event-is in reference to the potential weather this weekend. BUT ... monster snowstorm for MidA? BRING IT ON!!!
Works for us ... we will be at Snowshoe this Thurs thru next Monday and hoping to get snowed in ... its happened to us twice before!
Hmmmm .. wonder if anyone at SS knows enuf to give a couple of powder lessons!!!
WOOF, WOOF
Thanks a lot pal, something to ponder:
jinx n.
1: A person or thing that is believed to bring bad luck.
2: A condition or period of bad luck that appears to have been caused by a specific person or thing.
tr.v., jinxed, jinxing, jinxes.
To bring bad luck to.
[Possibly from jynx, wryneck (from its use in witchcraft), from Latin iynx, from Greek iunx, perhaps from iuzein, to call, cry.]
Hmmm... I'll have to keep my class and meeting schedules relatively clear for the next couple weeks. Looks like those 2-3 more pre-Park City tune up trips that I wanted to take are becoming more likely!
Snow Sat eve all the way to tue.(Highcountry)...8" of new by mon aft..steady fine light snow that doesn't add up to much after that till it ends tue....& then more snow chances thur/fri....till....Hope I'm wrong & the low really gets going on sat...Another foot! this is my call..pure speculation!
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......Hope I'm wrong & the low really gets going on sat...Another foot! this is my call..pure speculation!
Andy hope you're wrong too, niar event Saturday, what's the chance it snows at 4086'??? Give me some hope, ski's are waxed gas tank's full, wife busy saturday......football game, what football game??
Andy's due to be wrong - he keeps nailing the snow forecast for the valley. its scary really...
Herb Stevens anyone? He's due to be right!
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Earlier this week I mentioned that the toughest part of any weekend forecast was going to be the track of the low...east or west of the Appalachians...right now it looks as though it will come up just to the east of the spine of the mountains. That track will be too close to produce all snow in North Carolina's and West Virginia's resorts, but it will allow for a quicker changeover on the backside, and those areas can expect 5 to 7 inches of windblown snow after an initial shot of rain. The changeover will come during the midday hours on Saturday.
The low is actually going to go up the west side of the MTN's.The valley won't see any snow till the low lifts to the north & we get the wrapup.Wish it was going up the east side! The good thing about WEST va is the fact that they don't need the the snow from the low itself...the wraparound,upslope,lake effect & the clippers & shortwaves that follow do a fine(powder) job!...6 to 10 is the NWS call..huh? Sound familiar?......I got to go....Cking back in to the Holiday Inn Express
Has anyone else heard anything on this? It appears that the forecasters were correct in hitting a return to cold temps in the Feb 4-6 timeframe as well as snow that is falling in the midwestern states as we speak. How large of a storm that is I don't know. Also it is and continues to snow in the Allegheny's at the moment. But any word on this supposed 'monster' snowstorm? I've yet to see anyone make mention of this anywhere.
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Well the pro mets on Eastern Wx are starting to get excited. Beginning this weekend we are in for some weather with the Alleghenys getting a whole bunch of the GOOD white stuff. Several of the guys are already woofing and Dave Tolleris, the badboy of MidA weather pros, has this comment to make:
"I am extremy excited about the feb 6 midwest snowstorm and Mid atlantic snow FEB7 ... and the monster snowtorm for FEB 9-10 that i see for the entire Mid Atl and new england coast
Not this event."
-not this event-is in reference to the potential weather this weekend. BUT ... monster snowstorm for MidA? BRING IT ON!!!
Works for us ... we will be at Snowshoe this Thurs thru next Monday and hoping to get snowed in ... its happened to us twice before!
Hmmmm .. wonder if anyone at SS knows enuf to give a couple of powder lessons!!!
WOOF, WOOF
Monster is way too overboard....
There are some indications that there could be some significant snow next Sunday 2/12 thru Monday, but it is still too far away to tell. The models have been incredibly inconsistent this winter and there is still a great deal of discussion between the "experts" on this event. However, for the first time since December, things are definitely lining up!!! It's a miracle that any of the local close in resorts were able to stay open thru Jan. Kudos to the snowmakers! February looks exciting
BTW - Dave Tolleris is an arrogant, snotty egotistical boor who is a poor excuse for a weather forecaster. If you want a professional, well-thought out forecast, that leaves egos checked at the door, I recommend -->
www.capitalweather.com
See you Wed. at Liberty's - Operation Thank You
I dunno about any significant upcoming storms, but the 10-day temps are looking great for snowmaking and snow preservation.
Hopefully, the worm has finally turned...
MichaelB ... Yes Dave is 'an arrogant, snotty egotistical boor' but considering that as a private met who makes his daily bread from subscriptions from the likes of county highway departments, agriculture brokers, etc., he has to do better than average predictions or the boy doesn't eat. No, he's not perfect, but his rolling average is vastly better that the majority of salaried 'official' mets such as Bastardi. Think about it; if a county rolls out the salt trucks on his prediction and there is no corresponding sucky weather what do you think happen to his clientele and subscriptions?
And ... he is not the only 'arrogant, snotty egotistical' met out there, believe me.
As far as CapitalWeather is concerned, its decent but boring and not any better than, say, News at 7. Sorry, but IMHO CapitalWeather is merely a tarted up version of NWS.
My question is... this "monster" snow storm or infact any snow event, would it be relegated to the Allegheny mountains or would it be something to cover the eastern panhandle of WV and northern VA?
Big east coast snow storms aside. If you ski west of the Allegheny Front lake effect snows are your friend. No need for a big low turning up the coast - just a nice clipper dropping through Canada over the lakes will light Canaan Valley and Snowshoe up with 12-15" of light fluff. Looks like conditions over the next 2 weeks should be very favorable for LES cold weather and warm unfrozen lakes.
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Monster is way too overboard....
There are some indications that there could be some significant snow next Sunday 2/12 thru Monday, but it is still too far away to tell. The models have been incredibly inconsistent this winter and there is still a great deal of discussion between the "experts" on this event. However, for the first time since December, things are definitely lining up!!! It's a miracle that any of the local close in resorts were able to stay open thru Jan. Kudos to the snowmakers! February looks exciting
BTW - Dave Tolleris is an arrogant, snotty egotistical boor who is a poor excuse for a weather forecaster. If you want a professional, well-thought out forecast, that leaves egos checked at the door, I recommend --> www.capitalweather.com
See you Wed. at Liberty's - Operation Thank You
Dave is a good Met, with a bad attitude. Disrespects 99.9% of Eastern. Including other Mets.
As far as this weekend, I dont see much as of now. Right now, nothing significant outside of the mountains.
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As far as this weekend, I dont see much as of now. Right now, nothing significant outside of the mountains.
I guess we'll just have to settle for mountain snow ...again - Season's still a washout here in NVA. The 100 foot of vert in Fairfax (from the top of the solid waste dump off I66) remains unturned this year. When it's good it's a real (sub)urban backcountry experience. No lift lines, no lifts. Walk to the top faster than the silver queen. Pee wherever you want to. Might be a little rustic for some. Beers in the trunk of your car, martinis in plastic cups, watch out for the state troopers.
on Feb 2nd I predicted 8 inches of snow at the valley floor by the aft of mon the 6th.....the snow stopped at my house just before noon(the 6th) with a total of .....8 inches! Started right on time too....a hard rain turned to snow just before 5pm sat. Watching the Sun eve weather F-cast out of Clarksburg the weatherman said that the event was about over & that there could be a few lingering flurries in the Mtn's...Say what? Woke up at 130Am(mon) & it was dumping! Turned on the weather channel & there was O sign of any snow on the radar for the valley area....STEALTH SNOW...Don't ever trust the radar! Snowed real good mon morn too.....same story, no sign of snow by the time we got to Seneca rocks on ride back home... only 59 inches to go for my "Global Whining" prediction of 100"'s to add to the 67 we had at that point....Long live the WEST Va Alps!
Andy - what's your call for this weekend? here tell the lakes may be turning their guns southward toward the "alps" round Thursday. Check out Weather Channel - some awesome LES totals in upstate NY last 2 days(damn yankees). Tom
Andy you're turning into quite the weatherman, at least for short term forecasting. You might have the best record in the whole region... way to go!
And everyone, quick, look- it's a weatherman who is accurate and LIKES WINTER!!! Someone get this man a job already!
I wonder if we can get Bob Ryan booted and Andy stuck in there? I could see it now...
"Screw you in the metro area, if you don't like snow and winter, move south of Atlanta and STAY THERE! Now... for our artic frigid forecast for this area..."
It'd be more like this:
"Ok all you snowlovers here's the deal it's time to get Almost Heaven built... yeah six inches of freshies in the Alps and who the hell cares what's going on at the Beltway, gotta get back to fishing in NC... but I'll be... having a party next weekend... at my house in Canaan Valley.... and none of you are invited because you CAN'T, DRIVE, in the SNOW! HAH!"
They'd be able to put him on pay-per-view.
Thats funny, But basically I'm just guessing like everybody else! I've been Lucky a few times & now i think i should retire...Quit while I'm ahead!...I've got a picture perfect shot of the backside of Canaan ski(knob) & wiess Knob all frosted white which really highlights the sprucefields up there. I'll try to figure out how to post it. "Alpine splender south of the Mason Dixon"" will be the name of the postcard if i could sell it!
Well, the good news is that the NOAA Long-Range weather outlook for Feb. (which had predicted a much warmer than normal Feb. and has since been revised) was wrong. We are currently enjoying a normal to slightly below-normal Feb. Interestingly enough, NOAA is still forecasting a warmer-than-normal Mar. So, we're getting a final shot of winter that's likely to last 2 to 3 weeks and Mar. remains a BIG question mark.
I would think that most ski areas have already exceeded their snowmaking budget for the ski season. Granted, the big operators like 7-S and Snowshoe probably aren't too worried about spending a little more on snowmaking this season, but I worry about what some of the smaller operators might do. In order to go deep into Mar., most ski areas are going to have to lay down a substantial base. It's going to get interesting to see what happens as we approach the final (Spring) phase of this wacky ski season.
I saw the observation regarding "blown" snow-making budgets from Herb Stevens earlier today. I know Timberline continued to make snow well into March last year - even though we were getting above normal natural snowfall for that month. Actually, this really surpised me at the time, considering how skier numbers tend to drop off dramatically after Presidents Day. They sure blew a lot of snow this December though, so maybe they'll be tapped. But checking their webcam, they are blowing hard right now.
You've got a solid point MM. I could see 7 Springs and a few of the more Western areas holding out further into March but I don't know that the Snowtime 3 will stay open long after the turn of the month. A blown budget is one thing but it's hard to blow it when you haven't been blowing it if you know what I mean. I think if we get a shot of natural around this area you could see a big turnaround in attendance. Keep in mind many people tend to forget that they make snow around here so if it doesn't snow locally they forget that it's being made on the hill. They also forget that temps in around DC for example are not the same an hour north.
But for the moment get out ond tear it up. I'd love to hear a post from you about how good a day you had tearing it up. Seriously.
I was at Winterplace last night and I was actually impressed with their base. I really got the impression that I was always standing on at least 2' of snow. No thin spots whatsoever. And they haven't had the benefit of as much natural snow as some other resorts. Off of the slopes they may have had 1-2" on the ground in shaded areas above 3000' but that's it. Clearly they've been blowing some snow.
Lately, the Snotime hills have been closing after the first weekend in March. Seems to be more crowd-driven than weather- driven. If this weather keeps up for a few more weeks they'll have no problem meeting that date. I know they like to shut their snow guns down after President's Weekend (that's next weekend, right?) but they might run them some more to make it to March.
I would think that the Snowtime Hills would close after the first weekend in March in order to give their hard-core skiers and season-pass holders one final weekend after the end of Feb. Of course, they would probably need to make a fair amount of snow to ensure a good weekend in March. And, at this point, I'm wondering how much more they're going to want to spend on snowmaking. Fortunately, it looks like there's going to be plenty of cold weather between now and the 1st weekend in March, although the 15 day forecast now looks a bit milder than it was calling for a few days ago.
You know, MM, I think there may be something psychological going on as well about staying open until the first weekend in March. Kind of like paying 2.29 9/10 for gas- no you're not paying 2.30, you're paying 2.29 darnit! Well, for skiing it works this way. Snotime stays open until the first weekend in March, they can advertise "skiing from December until March!" and everyone thinks- "hey, December is the first month of winter and March is the last month of winter so Snotime is open all winter."
Now, if Snotime closes the last weekend of February (on purpose- a "screw the diehards" attitude if you will) what do their commercials sound like? "We ski until February!" Well, St. Marys County still gets snow in February so folks are probably scratching their heads going "geez, if these hills can't make it to March they must have TERRIBLE weather" and boom, there goes your crowds.
Maybe. It's just a theory. But as anyone in DC knows (or used to be in DC in my case), it's darn hard to convince people it's worth skiing if they haven't seen snowfall yet that winter. It gets harder when ski areas start bragging about staying open until February. I think that's one reason they stay open until the first weekend in March... and not much longer if they can help it.
I couldn't agree more. At least from a marketing standpoint it's far better for a ski area to stay open through the 1st weekend in March than to close in Feb. Fortunately, this cold snap has come along at the 11th hour of the season and made March closure dates likely for all ski areas within the mid-Atlantic.
