Warming trend
January 11, 2006
32 posts
16 users
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Anyone have any opinions (Like I need to ask) on this warm trend we're seeing. How will it affect the base at 7 Springs and the more northern resorts?
I dont think it'll be too bad, the nights over the next day or two will still be sub 32, and a cold air mass looks to set in late next week. I.e. the warming wont be prolonged.
I can only hope this is our annual New Years warm up. It really hasn't been that bad. If the storm they are predicting by the end of next week comes true, we'll come through this relatively unscathed.
Was @ 7S on 12/30. The mix of groomed granular with mounds of loose granular made for "iffy" conditions at best. Mother Nature needs to supply some natural snow & colder weather soon... some grassy areas are starting to appear off piste.
The first time I saw this thread I thought it was about global warming. Agree with Murph, if this is our normal first thaw, it really isn't that bad. There's a good chance it won't even get to 60 in Blacksburg, which is actually a more common temp in midwinter than you'd think. A weeklong warm-up won't put much of a dent in the amount of artificial snow that's been accumulated in WV, MD and PA.
If it says anything, there are still piles of granulated snow around the house here when I went on a tear trying to shovel snow the other week before the ice hit. Somehow I didn't get as much accomplished as I wanted too.
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If it says anything, there are still piles of granulated snow around the house here when I went on a tear trying to shovel snow the other week before the ice hit. Somehow I didn't get as much accomplished as I wanted too.
My backyard is still half covered in snow. 3" of ice is pretty resistant to melting. The dog pooh is just starting to melt it's way through to the ground...Maybe I should go scoop that up 
It helps for me here because our land faces north/northeast so while one portion gets nailed with eastern sunlight in the morning, the west and southern sides is shaded by trees and a ridge that rises up behind us. I swear I'll put in a chairlift someday here.
I was very disappointed yesterday morning when I visited Wintergreen after calling their snow line and being told that all trails were open. I became suspicious when I saw vehicles with skis and snowboards on top headed down the mountain in droves. The entire resort was completely socked in by thick fog. I couldn't see the sides of the road and had to turn around and give up.
If you talk to the pro meterologists, most of them are predicted a minor cooling trend this weekend, but it will not last. Temps will warm back up again and there is no sign of any substantial cold air for the next 3 weeks.
It is just a matter of days now before we start losing trail counts in the DC area resorts because of the heavy rain and lack of cold air. This winter is shaping up to be a repeat of 2001-2002 which was terrible.
Medium and Long range weather models suggest a warm January followed by an even warmer February with a few days of cooler temps scattered sporadically in between.
I am starting to plan my trips accordingly. My family and I were planning a Feb. trip to BK, but they have already lost 4 trails in the past 3 days, so I suspect we will need to put plan B into place.
Take Horace Greeley's advice...
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I was very disappointed yesterday morning when I visited Wintergreen after calling their snow line and being told that all trails were open. I became suspicious when I saw vehicles with skis and snowboards on top headed down the mountain in droves. The entire resort was completely socked in by thick fog. I couldn't see the sides of the road and had to turn around and give up.
I suspect many of those you saw leaving were wrapping up their holiday stays at mountain property. Regardless, I skied WG Friday and Saturday, and while cover was generally quite good, some areas were thinning, requiring nightly maintenance. There is a heavy, ice base that should hold up well, but Wintergreen, like everyone else, could use some colder temps.
I'd say that the base at Wintergreen is getting a little thin at this point. What I'm wondering is....will there be enough cold weather (for snowmaking at night) over the next few weeks to keep Wintergreen from shutting down? The season is starting to look pretty DICY at this point. Perhaps late Jan and/or the month of Feb will have some much needed COLD spells.
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I'd say that the base at Wintergreen is getting a little thin at this point. What I'm wondering is....will there be enough cold weather (for snowmaking at night) over the next few weeks to keep Wintergreen from shutting down? The season is starting to look pretty DICY at this point. Perhaps late Jan and/or the month of Feb will have some much needed COLD spells.
MM - they will probably be able to make snow Friday and Saturday nights, but that's it. Beyond that there is no foreseeable cold in the analogs or models for at least two weeks. There is a faint glimmer of a pattern change in the last week of Jan. (see Herb the Skiingweatherman). Let's just hope that they can keep the base intact until then without too many trail closings. I know Whitetail has stopped grooming all of its blacks and from looking at the webcams there are some nasty spots forming.
They'll probably have 60 hours straight of snow making weather starting this afternoon. The wet bulb temp is 33 degrees right now (noon on Thursday) and dropping.They should be able to get things in decent shape.
A lot of the weather reports and forecasts for that area are from Charlottesville. 3,000' feet of elevation change makes a lot of difference. A 16 degree difference right now as a matter of fact.
Wisp has resumed snowmaking and should be able to continue for the next couple of days. The forecast from NWS is also calling for snow through tomorrow night. Hopefully all of the other areas west of the Alleghany front will be fully recovered by the weekend. With just a bit of good fortune, the more eastern areas may be able to at least patch things up at night as well.
after looking at the NOAA site today, I get the feeling that the snow belt mountains in WV will receive 4-8" of fresh tonight through Saturday AM.
Let's hope! Otherwise the humidity may be too high to make snow at a lot of mountains over this period.
I agree, over the next few days most ski areas should be able to make enough snow to patch things up. Also, some ski areas might receive several inches of snow during this period. However, there still isn't any sign of an Alberta Clipper heading our way, so the snowmaking opportunities are likely to be limited over the next 3 weeks or so.
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Is it me, or does this image refute the term 'warming trend'?
http://fsvisimages.com/doso1/doso1.html#
Looks great, but it won't last. Temps expected to rise the to low 60s by this time next week.
this cold snap is a chance to put a bandaid on the bare spots while we pray for a cold shot. 2 weeks of sustained warm weather and some possibility of rain could wash out January. It feels like fall again and I don't like it. I've fingers crossed for some additional snow making oportunites during the next week or two.
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Looks great, but it won't last. Temps expected to rise the to low 60s by this time next week.
Where do you get low 60's? I can see upper 40's in the daytime, but still in 20's at night. The DC area will see significantly warmer than that, but I'm not buying that Tucker/Preston/Garrett will be anywhere near the low 60's. 
For the record, the high temp today at DCL was 27.8 at 12:00am. It is presently 17.8 and snowing. It'll be fun to check this out next Friday and see how accurate our various prognostications turned out to be!
This season is far from a washout and if anything we are much better now than this time last year. I remember going on Jan 1 last year before the truely worst warm spell hit and the slope conditions were granulated at best. Now Wisp is open at nearly 100% and holding steady, other resorts like Whitetail do have bare spots but I'd attribute that to lower elevation.
Not that any warming during January is good, but I'm not considering any thing close to this being a washout season until Wisp starts showing serious issues with their base. I'm taking this warm spell and rolling with it. Instead of hitting the slopes I'm focusing on getting more client work done to free up time when it is siberian like temps at the top of Timberline then I can be there zipping down a relaxing run on Salamander.
Who is it, snowcone or snowmaker that calls accuweather accunever or something? Well I do pay attention to thier longterm trends which alongside with the Skiing weatherman predict a turn back to winter proper during the 2nd half of Jan.My girl says it is always cold on her B-Day..the 19th of jan so with amature & pro F-casts I feel that the siberian effect that you seek Baywalker will occur then.I plan on making the 7.5 hour trip back to the valley then myself...I cannot drive that far unless it is to see Siberia!
Just got back from two days of skiing at Timberline. discount lift tics and free ski demos both days. Had a great time. Good groomed runs yesterday and today was a powder day (albeit a modest one). I'd say the mtn got 6" of fresh natural in the 24 hrs before I left at 430pm today 1/6/06. Pretty heavy snow showers all day today. Real glad I didn't let the warming trend discourage me from going. They did receive torrential rain on Monday of this week and a couple of trails closed for a few days including off the wall. but it had a lot of powder on it (I took a peek) and I'm guessing it will be oficially open on Saturday. Had a blast skiing with my kids and WV jimmy.
Hope to file a trip report in a day or two.
But tomorrow is going to be even better than today. I bet they get another fresh 2-4" or more tonight.
Have you ever noticed that usually you see the term spelled 'January Thaw'? The word 'Thaw' is capitalized because it happens every frigging year, but we somehow survive it. Last year I skied at HV on New Year's Day and it was basically Spring conditions. But overall last season turned out to be pretty decent - the best skiing that I had was on March 4th at 7 Springs.
Remember, this is the Mid-Atlantic - if you want stable winter weather, check Monster.com for jobs in SLC or Denver.
One of the great joys of living in the Mid-Atl is learning to live with the trials and tribulations of the weather around here. I'm learning to shift with the temps- when it gets to 60 here in B-burg later this week, my plan is to do some mountain biking on Brush Mountain and get some jogging in. Then when the temps drop back and (hopefully) it snows, back to X-C skiing and some quick day trips to Winterplace and/or Wintergreen. There's always something to do outside in the mountains!
I really need to get down there to Wintergreen, thats one of the M.A. resorts I've not visited yet. Then again I've only been snowboarding once this winter. :-s
This weeks forecast is making a turn for the better. Snow Monday night and again Friday and Saturday. Rain is still going to fall and I'm sure the net effect on coverage will be negative but it's not going to be the end of the world like some are calling for. Think postitive!
Has anyone been out to 7springs (or, for that matter, HV) and - given the horrendous forecast- have any predictions re: the extent to which they may be operational this coming 3-day weekend? I have folks planning to come out from a bit far and wondering if i should suggest they postpone?
There is a chance that Fri nite rain could turn to snow sat thru sun sometime.According to the latest F-cast,we should know by sat morn!! Seriously.. if you can wait till the F-cast update on thur morn you should know WEATHER to head up or not.Thats what i will be doing..in the meantime its been nothing but shorts & T-shirts & 70's down here in the se carolinas...Fishin & Grillin till it starts chillin....
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Has anyone been out to 7springs (or, for that matter, HV) and - given the horrendous forecast- have any predictions re: the extent to which they may be operational this coming 3-day weekend? I have folks planning to come out from a bit far and wondering if i should suggest they postpone?
Evidently, everyone thinks we have no snow, because we have been DEAD EMPTY lately. In reality, we have still have excellent coverage and will fare just fine through the weekend with only the natural areas closed. I have no idea about HV.
I was at 7 Springs last weekend and they were in pretty good shape on the blues and blacks. The greens were iffy. I'm praying this weekend storm will wash out some of this warm weather and give the mountains a chance to resurrect the season.
