Nor'easter friday...
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17 users
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energy177
December 6, 2005
Member since 12/1/2004 🔗
19 posts
accuweather.com is already predicting a band of 6-12 inches of snow on friday from west virginia, through maryland and southern PA, and stretching into new jersey. it seems a little far out for predicting snowfall amounts, but atleast its something to look forward too..
jb714
December 6, 2005
Member since 03/4/2003 🔗
294 posts
Ummmm....that particular weather source has been known to hype just a wee bit. Check out Wxrisk for what I consider to be a more useful forecast.
Snowmakers
December 6, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Quote:

Ummmm....that particular weather source has been known to hype just a wee bit. Check out Wxrisk for what I consider to be a more useful forecast.




Yes, I like to call it crappuweather. Here is a more reliable model forecast.



Kris
December 6, 2005
Member since 03/15/2005 🔗
248 posts
Not to disagree or anything, but that map doesent look too realiable to me...Its giving the north western part of WV more snow than the mountains...
I cant see that happening...
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Snowmakers
December 6, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Quote:

Not to disagree or anything, but that map doesent look too realiable to me...Its giving the north western part of WV more snow than the mountains...
I cant see that happening...





I see your point, but that is what the model is thinking the snow will look like through 12z (7am) friday. I'll post the 0z (7pm) map when it comes out. Should look a bit different.
Snowmakers
December 6, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...


ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY EARLY
FRIDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE FROM THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...A WINTRY MIXTURE OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY STAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET. WHILE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WARM AIR WILL MIX IN TO CREATE
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ICING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DETERMINE
HOW MUCH SNOW AND ICE OCCURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


Murphy
December 6, 2005
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
Quote:

THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW AND ICE OCCURS.




I love that disclaimer. It's like saying the snow accumulation will be less if it doesn't snow.
energy177
December 6, 2005
Member since 12/1/2004 🔗
19 posts
Quote:

Ummmm....that particular weather source has been known to hype just a wee bit. Check out Wxrisk for what I consider to be a more useful forecast.




yeah they do tend to hype it up, im not disagreeing. but they almost always correctly predict when a big storm is forming (whether they get rain/snow lines, and snowfall amounts right is a different question.) The site you mentioned is for paying members, i think...so thats not gonna work for me. most of accuweather is free.

for this storm, however, accuweathers snowfall map does not differ from the map snowmaker posted in terms of snowfall amounts. the lines have shifted, but its still showing a good amount of snow for the mid-atlantic.
johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
December 6, 2005
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,938 posts
Welcome to DCSki Energy177!! Thanks for the good info.
fishnski
December 6, 2005
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
HO-D-DOOR!! What are you all looking at? The map shows 6 to 8" of snow thru the west va mtns from snowshoe on up thru the valley & on up to PA. It shows the heaviest band thru the pocconos & down to the liberty & maybe whitetail area(8 inches +)The lowlands of WV taper down to 4 to 6 inches...is it time for me to get glasses?
fishnski
December 6, 2005
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Ck out any sat shot & you will see the artic dome heading down for a colision course with that tropical moisture! The 7 day buis planner at the weather channel is showing another bout of snow in the highlands for sun,mon,tues.....can it be true???
Snowmakers
December 6, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
No, its my fault, the maps changed. Ill re-post them in a saved format.

Through Friday 7am...


Additional Accumulation...
Murphy
December 6, 2005
Member since 09/13/2004 🔗
618 posts
Quote:

HO-D-DOOR!! What are you all looking at? The map shows 6 to 8" of snow thru the west va mtns from snowshoe on up thru the valley & on up to PA. It shows the heaviest band thru the pocconos & down to the liberty & maybe whitetail area(8 inches +)The lowlands of WV taper down to 4 to 6 inches...is it time for me to get glasses?




I think that image has updated since it was first posted. That or the spiked egg nog.
langleyskier
December 6, 2005
Member since 12/7/2004 🔗
824 posts
Still..those maps show the snowfall way west of where the main band of heavy precip should fall
energy177
December 6, 2005
Member since 12/1/2004 🔗
19 posts
Quote:

Welcome to DCSki Energy177!! Thanks for the good info.




Thank you, I appreciate the welcome.

either way the storm goes, it looks like we should see continued cold weather no matter what. even into next week the highs will stuggle to reach 40 for all the snowtime resorts, and even colder in western areas.

additional trails should open fast...
Roger Z
December 6, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
Good point. I'll believe the forecast when I see the results. But you're right, energy. Cold weather is likely to continue either way. This is probably the best December we've had in several years...
fishnski
December 6, 2005
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
This ones going to bring a good dump right down to the DC DCskiers...right down to the mother land! Ski in ski out is my prediction for all you dc homies....5 to 8"'s...Damascus,md,the last place that i lived before cutting & running for the southland will get at least a half foot.(maybe 8"'s) Ski liberty & roundtop will be FULL of POWDER....I'll be up at Canaan getting dumped on as usual!
BushwackerinPA
December 7, 2005
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
WInter STorm Watch has been issued for Pittsbugh .
Kris
December 7, 2005
Member since 03/15/2005 🔗
248 posts
Not to take anything away from friday...but we have had accumulating snow flurries all night here...about 2 inches this morning when i woke up...Up in CV, they could possibly have more...The weather lady this morning said 6 inches + is not out of the question for friday.
energy177
December 7, 2005
Member since 12/1/2004 🔗
19 posts
well...the entire state of PA is now covered in winter storm watches, with the exception of the far eastern counties (im assuming they will see watches in the near future however).

local meteorologists have been saying they are much more confident with the forecast of this storm, as compared to the last.
MichaelB
December 7, 2005
Member since 11/20/2000 🔗
61 posts
Let me try to inject a little sanity into this discussion, if I may. First, this is by no means a "noreaster". This system will slide right off the NC coast and continue east just like the previous system. The key to the pattern that is developing is the screaming Pacific jet this winter. Storms will develop but they will not move up the coast in a classic noreaster pattern. The PAC jet will push the storm east and out to sea. This is not to say that we will not get any snow. We will get snow. However, there are two systems in the Thurs-Fri. picture that will merge into one Low off the coast. These two systems can potentially not merge until they are well past our area. That will cause a phenomenon known as "dry slotting". Areas to the north and south of DC/MD will receive much more snow than our area. This is a strong possibility in the current setup. This is good for the PA resorts and Snowshoe/Canaan Valley, but bad for Wisp, Whitetail and Liberty. Local DC resorts will probably see no more than 4 or 5 inches. Better than the last system on Monday, but still not a major 6+ inch snowstorm.
jb714
December 7, 2005
Member since 03/4/2003 🔗
294 posts
I'm much less concerned (obviously) about what happens in or close to DC than I am regarding what happens West of the Allegheny Front - I'm going to 7 Springs Fri afternoon, and it'd be nice to have 6"+ when I get there. It would also be nice if I check OPM.GOV Fri morning and see that the Fed Gov't is closed - it'd give me an 8-hour jump on the weekend.
snowcone
December 7, 2005
Member since 09/27/2002 🔗
589 posts
dryslotting .. and THAT is the definitive description for a DC winter. Basically, the standard call for DC snow is; 2 feet or nuttin'.

And ... I second the wish for a federal close. That way we can call for 'an off site meeting', e.g., take skis and head to selected ski hill, meet at 1st lift, and declare 'meeting'.
gatkinso
December 7, 2005
Member since 01/25/2002 🔗
316 posts
Bring it on! 2 feet or 2 inches I WANT IT ALL!
energy177
December 7, 2005
Member since 12/1/2004 🔗
19 posts
Quote:

Let me try to inject a little sanity into this discussion, if I may. First, this is by no means a "noreaster". This system will slide right off the NC coast and continue east just like the previous system. The key to the pattern that is developing is the screaming Pacific jet this winter. Storms will develop but they will not move up the coast in a classic noreaster pattern. The PAC jet will push the storm east and out to sea. This is not to say that we will not get any snow. We will get snow. However, there are two systems in the Thurs-Fri. picture that will merge into one Low off the coast. These two systems can potentially not merge until they are well past our area. That will cause a phenomenon known as "dry slotting". Areas to the north and south of DC/MD will receive much more snow than our area. This is a strong possibility in the current setup. This is good for the PA resorts and Snowshoe/Canaan Valley, but bad for Wisp, Whitetail and Liberty. Local DC resorts will probably see no more than 4 or 5 inches. Better than the last system on Monday, but still not a major 6+ inch snowstorm.




I disagree. there are still some models (i believe) that are forecasting a low to develope off the coast and move up and out. to me, thats a nor'easter: when a storm forms off the coast and give us a dump. even tho it may not be the classic definition.

second, im not sure where you are coming from when saying this is not a 6+ inch storm. like i stated earlier, almost all of PA is in a winter storm watch, which means there is the potential for 6+ inches of snow. if they didnt think we werent going to get that much snow, they (nws) would not have posted the watch.
Gill
December 7, 2005
Member since 06/23/2000 🔗
61 posts
Quote:

This is good for the PA resorts and Snowshoe/Canaan Valley, but bad for Wisp, Whitetail and Liberty.




Ummm, I thought Whitetail and Liberty were PA resorts....

Did they move those state lines again. I hate it when they do that.
gatkinso
December 7, 2005
Member since 01/25/2002 🔗
316 posts
For a long time I thought WT was in MD (until I finally noticed the sign when driving up there!). This was long b4 DCSki.com however.
Kris
December 7, 2005
Member since 03/15/2005 🔗
248 posts

Quote:

This is good for the PA resorts and Snowshoe/Canaan Valley, but bad for Wisp, Whitetail and Liberty.




Just a thought, but isnt Wisp really close to CV???

I cant see how CV will get pounded, and Wisp not get it...I know elevation has a little to do with it, but still yet...They are right beside each other...
Usually when there is a weather warning or watch or any type of snow warning in this area, Tucker County WV (CV), and Garrett County MD, (Wisp) are at the top of the list...
So, I tend to think IF this storm turns out to be what they are forecasting, All the resorts in and around the CV area (CV,TL,Wisp,7S,Snowshoe,etc) will do just fine...

Just my expert weather analyis...
gatkinso
December 7, 2005
Member since 01/25/2002 🔗
316 posts
It is about an hours drive on dry roads.

Generally they do experience the same weather patterns but Cannan Valley gets significantly more snow. Just look at the difference when you drive up the Allegany front from the bottom to the top - it is astounding!
Snowmakers
December 7, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
WSW here for 5"+

TWC (they suck though) has 4-7", NOAA has 4-6", and weatherbug has 4-8".


Im going with 5 or 6", but Ill be ready to get screwed again
Kris
December 7, 2005
Member since 03/15/2005 🔗
248 posts
Just watched the 6:00 news...They seem to be pretty reliable around here....6"-8" through Friday...
He said, and I quote, "All you skiers out there, dont get your hopes up, but there is a possibility of a foot + of snow in the CV area if the low pressure moves just a little slower than what we are expecting right now."
Last time he said that (halloween) you all know what happened...They were predicting 2 inches and CV got around 8...So...There is still hope...
Looks like a good weekend for us at Wisp...
johnfmh - DCSki Columnist
December 7, 2005
Member since 07/18/2001 🔗
1,938 posts
12 inches could create a lot of opportunity at T-line for those looking for steep terrain. If we get 12, OTW will open. That's my prediction.
jimmy
December 7, 2005
Member since 03/5/2004 🔗
2,650 posts
and
fishnski
December 7, 2005
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Noreaster or not...Its still a win,win or like Jimmy put it a situation! When you are predicting snowfall for WV it is usually a 2 parter...the 1st & "main" storm & then the many times heavier wrap around that can mean powder for days! PS...if ski Liberty doesn't get dumped on like i predicted & gets in a "dry slot" as predicted by the "new member".....I will not talk about Mount Porte Crayon for...A WEEK!
Crush
December 7, 2005
Member since 03/21/2004 🔗
1,026 posts
. sendin' positive snow-thoughts your way!
BushwackerinPA
December 8, 2005
Member since 12/9/2004 🔗
649 posts
This is going to sound unworldy but my friend at Hidden Valley, is reporting 3 inches of snow in one hour since it started at 8:30. This is not lye the mountains are doing very well cya guys at springs tomorrow.
Roy
December 10, 2005
Member since 01/11/2000 🔗
609 posts
I'm not sure what you guys got but I drove up to Okemo, VT on Wednesday. Friday we got 6-8" andy they opened up the Jackson Gore area. Eventually, it turned into the classic Nor'Easter but only after it was almost to sea.
Snowmakers
December 10, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
This isnt Nor'easter related, but it is snow related. I ran an excellent snowmaking run last night. Thought I'd share.

Sorry about the size.

My overnight results.

41" pile from the fangun, and a 23" pile from the K2. Both really outperformed anything ive ever had. Note I measured 41" before I dug my hoses out. FWIW, its more like 48" now with the extra snow I threw on it.

Pictures.


K2 pile visible at the top of the picture.


K2 gun and fangun pile.


The fangun pile and all it's glory.


Nicely groomed lower section.



Best run ever so far.
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