November 21, 2005
There has been some speculating about a possible storm around thanksgiving. I was wondering what all the dcski weather nuts are (or are not) speculating? I know it is way too early for any promises but some natural snow could make a great start to the season even better.
Well, I called for a T-Day snowstorm back in Sept, so I will be dancing a jig if it happens (two jigs if Marcus Vick decided to show up this week and send the wahoos down in flameS). Inaccuweather is saying it's increasingly likely to be the first Nor'Easter, with snow in the Appalachians from North Carolina on up.
But just to jinx the snow (and probably the game tomorrow, too), I think I'm gonna bring my skis home. Maybe. They're brand new skis, I have not idea how to ski them, and it'd be really, really dumb to expose them to rock conditions just to make a couple turns. We'll see!
It is early, but my obsessive following of the weather forums has me excited for snow, and a lot of it, for the mid-atlantic mountains. I have even seen calls for (believe it or not) up to FIVE FEET of snow in the Tuesday to Sunday time frame for the mountains of WV!! This storm seems to be setting up in a similar way to the November 1950 storm that dropped several feet of snow from WV up through western PA (while it was raining and in the 50s in Buffalo, NY). Still early, but the ski resorts may be in for a SERIOUS dumping.
great. five feet of snow and i might as well quit my job.
Where did you see for 5 feet?
Most of the forums I lurk on are giving a total of somewhere around 12 inches ... and not specifically in WV .. could be anywhere from NC to NH.
AND .. all the good pros are still holding their fire. They're saying there will be 2 storms of which the 1st is most likely to be a heavy rain even for the DC corridor. The second one is what has everyone excited .. that one could dump some serious white stuff in our area or it could fizzle badly.
What ever is going to happen is probably 5-6 days out and the way the pieces are coming together wont be really evident until Monday or so.
So .. be patient and bend those elbows to ullr.
Joe Bastardi of Accuweather made the reference of up to 5 feet of snow in the WV mountains (and up to two feet in the NC mountains) from the lake enhanced upslope snows that will follow for days after the storm passes next week. I certainly find five feet hard to believe (heck, I've never heard of a call for up to five feet in my lifetime), but I certainly think that in the higher elevations where this will be mostly a snow event and have the benefit of the upslope snows after the storm passes that this could be one heck of a great start to the ski season, if not something more monumental than that.
This scenerio is about identical to the oct 24th storm this year. A leftover tropical storm moving up the coast which in its passing leaves an artic blast which dumps snow on our western front highlands.This time though we have a little more cold to work with! I would think we could squeeze some wet snow out of the main coastal storm & then BAMMMM 30 to 40 mile an hour winds with snow dumping & blowing! The Artic in the mid atlantic highlands in nov.I will be up in the canaan area during the whole process.....Keep hope alive!...PS..I hope I'm not calling Joe a Bastardi next week!
My call: 23" at snowshoe Mon-Wed. Just pulled out a random number. Hope it works
On Easternuswx, DT-WXRISK has drawn some parallels between the T-Giving 1950 storm and what some of the models are showing for Nov 27/28. He isn't making a forecast as such, merely drawing some parallels - but that's still 10~ days away.
IMHO ... JB is a doofus .. he hypes extreme weather to get the weenies to sign up for his 'premium' snake oil; woolly caterpillars are about as precise for predictions.
Best sources are the Eastern Weather Forum and National Weather Service. Period.
I would love to know where you guys get your forecasts...
Im about an hour away from the valley, and not 1 local forecast is calling for anything more than flurries over the next 10 days...The most accumulation they predict will be for the ski resorts and thats a whopping 1/2 inch to an inch...
The best forecast i found today on any site was at best light snow showers...possible accumulation in the higher mountains (ski resorts)...
Can someone post what site they are looking at...
JB is certainly one who hypes storms, but he is more than just a doofus. He called for the foot of snow up here well ahead of any of the other mets or weather services for the storm in October. I know his rep on Easternuswx.com -- some love him , some love to hate him -- but you can't deny that the consensus from even the easternuswx site is the potential for big snows inland with high elevation, even though none of them is willing to come out with accumulation amounts at this point.
I certainly agree that 5 feet of snow is a long shot, but in the overall scheme of things, JB is far from alone.
Yeah I saw that. The positive angle is that Dave T [WXRISK] is really hyped about what's coming in the next 10-12 days. But you notice he really isn't saying much except that what ever its going to be whether snow or rain is definite in the out-of-the-ordinary category. I've been checking the EasternWX posts twice a day since the first predictions of the cold shot surfaced. My suggestion to anyone on this forum who wants the -real- news on the weather is to join that forum. As I mentioned before between EasternWX, and NWS/NOAA you can't go wrong.
Join here: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=home
... you won't regret it.
Hello Kris. As you could probably tell from my earlier post, the most reliable source for upcoming weather is on Easternuswx.com. Its a bulletin board of weather enthusiasts along with a solid base of professional meteorologists who give their inputs on upcoming weather and model analysis. I learned long ago not to pay much attention to those 40% chance of rain/snow showers several days in advance that the NWS or TWC will put forth (Although TWC is now calling for snow from Tues through Friday here). There is much more to the forecasts than that. If you become at least 10% familiar with what everyone is talking about on that site, and sift out those who know what they are talking about from those who are just full of it, then you can be the guy in town who shocks everone with announcements of upcoming events way before any of the weather outlets even give a hint of it to the general public.
On the other hand, you could look like an idiot
P.S. Joe Bastardi's forecast is a paid-for subscription on Accuweather professional.
Agreed. Easternuswx is now my first source for weather info. I go to NWS for current observations, and I'll take a peek at CrackUWeather for a laugh - but aside from that I'm haunting the forum.
For anyone on easternuswx-
Here is a nice lookin thread for the storm. Sure, it may be ameteurs, but if there are 10 people pointing to an average of a 5" total for my house, and a 30" average forecast for the shoe, that says something.http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=66772&st=60
BTW- what are you guys usernames there? Powderhound21 here. The only snowmaker from covington,va.
My username on easternwx is -- meltemi -- greek for a very strong wind (7-9 Beaufort). I have spotted a number of users that do not seem to be weather weenies but skiers, mainly based on the type of questions they ask ... I dont post, I just lurk.
So, I'm not a weather geek so I'm going to ask the blatant questions....
What's the outlook for the resorts up north over Turkey Day festivities? I'm going to be in ME and was planning on hitting up Sugarloaf or even Sunday River while I'm up there.
I love having parents in the middle of nowhere!!
For the quickest answer and probably the most accurate would be to do the following: ... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/
... type in the zip code of your parents house in the space provided [upper left]... or enter the closest town to your resort of choice in the same box. NSW/NOAA is pretty accurate with the only caveat being they predict on the conservative side.
Hope the weather at your folks is what you're looking for.
I'm going to expect a few inches and not much else. If there was a chance of more you know the media would be hyping this as a level 5 kill storm with an onus on emptying shelves of bread, milk and water along with flash lights and batteries. Looking at where the snow is right now supposed to hit and the rain line I have a feeling the snow will be of the heavy wet kind. Hopefully the good kind that helps build bases and not the superwet kind that just wants to be rain again.
Joe Bastardi is a complete idiot. Five feet of snow??? That is the dumbest thing he has ever said. I paid attention to his rants when his site was free, but paying for his hooey is a waste of money that could be better spent on lift tickets.
If you want a thorough, intelligent discussion of the weather, I recommend Herb Stevens, the skiing weatherman.http://www.skiingweatherman.com
I think the Beltway will get a few drizzly bits of fetal snow but nothing is going to stick and its just going to make for silly-season driving conditions. On the other hand, Snowshoe is probably going to get nailed but good; I expect 20" or so over the next 3-5 days. Ditto, Seven Springs, but I suspect the cumulative there will be more in the 15" range.
In any case, colder air means colder ground and the next clippers [expected after T-day weekend] will probably give us some real snow. Now -that's- something to look forward to!
I agree with that. This weekend may not prove to be my first tunrs weekend but a week or so after that will be.
I was going to bring my skis home, so you all should be happy to know that I didn't. This is good news because I'm one of those natural-born jinxers. Now that I don't have skis around, expect 4-6 feet of snow in West Virginia. It will fall as two inches of ice for a base layer, followed be one foot or so of heavy wet snow. This will mix with about six inches of pure powder, another foot of heavy wet snow, and then the remaining 1-3 feet will be Utah fluff.
Every ski resort from Cataloochee to Elk will be 100% open for the next three weeks, until the tendonitis in my foot heals, at which point the temps will warm back to 70 degrees and that will be the end of the season.
ps- everything I learned about forecasting, I learned from Joe Bastardi.
Even if CV gets 18 inches + will it matter? They won't open anything more than the bunny trails.
Even if CV gets 18 inches + will it matter? They won't open anything more than the bunny trails.
My friend, there is more to CV than the lift service.