Snowfall Outlook Thread
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7 users
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Snowmakers
October 15, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Ive taken about 10 minutes to throw toghther a rough map of what I expect this season. Im thinkin about 100-120% of average snow, with average temps. I think there will be large temp swings, but not nearly as major as last year. The temps from January 11 to a week later were like a world apart.It went from 60's & 70's to 30's and 40's. I went to the homestead on the 18th and it by far was my coldest session. Temp that day got to a scorching 11 degrees. And at 9am when the lifts startes, it was a nippy -16F. It was cold to say the least.

Well that is a short text sypnosis of the map. Here is the snowfall map I threw together. May put out another when I get back from my trip to VT & NH.


Major cities are tacked between 4 red dots, and ski resorts are under a white star.

Ill give DCA a solid 22-26"




*Not indicated, Light blue band that includes DCA is projected 16-25"
jonjon
October 15, 2005
Member since 04/2/2004 🔗
70 posts
Great map! I like your overall 100-120% of normal snowfall call. Not to be picky, though, you've got Timberline and Canaan Valley in the 71-100 inch range, which is only 60-75% of the normal there (and they are a little to far west on your map, they are technically east of the tip of Maryland that points down, but I know I'm splitting hairs here).
I would make your purple area the 111+ zone, and add another zone that would be 175"+ that stretches from around Snowshoe to the tip of Maryland. Great job for 10 minutes of work!

But otherwise, I'm in love with your map!!!
Snowmakers
October 15, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
I see that. Crap. Oh well, 10 minutes of work.

Ill probably fix that tonight. But yes, overall, Im predicting 100-120% of snowfall for the region. I woundnt be suprised to see the shoe hit the 200" mark.
Crush
October 15, 2005
Member since 03/21/2004 🔗
1,031 posts
Snowmakers (plural?) - Dude taking a big chance with that prognosetication aren't you? I mean ... really... an ENSO-neutral year will only mean there is no forcing-function ... it will all be determined by the NAO and you can't figure that -one to two weeks in advance since the period is not well understood. You must be divinely influenced.
jonjon
October 15, 2005
Member since 04/2/2004 🔗
70 posts
Or he is taking into account a majority of the long term forcasters, including Keith Allen who has an unbelievable track record.
snowcone
October 15, 2005
Member since 09/27/2002 🔗
589 posts
I've heard about Keith Allen and that he is the best at predicting winter weather in the DC area ... where can I find his weather predictions? Are they online?
jonjon
October 15, 2005
Member since 04/2/2004 🔗
70 posts
I got my information about him second hand from easternuswx

See http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=53539&hl=keith+allen

Also see this link for how incredible his predictions have been in the past http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=56264&hl=keith+allen
Snowmakers
October 15, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Yes, after looking through long term models, as well as past weather and evident information, I am agreeing with the majority of top forcasters in saying that this should be an above average year. Many models suggest a nice dip in the jet stream west ov the Ohio River for a major part of the winter, due to a high pressure positioned between the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay. This high pressure would send continually reinforcing shots of cold air, as well as send alberta clippers farther south into our region. These would quickly get eaten up by the mountains, and would result in nice upslope events.

Enough talk, here is the map I re-did. I took more time in this one, and took terrain and elevation more into account. Realize this is in general. As resorts like Wintergreen are in a range somewhat lower than typical average. Higher peaks will see higher snowfall than seen on map.


Snowmakers
October 15, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Feedback? Anyone?
fishnski
October 16, 2005
Member since 03/27/2005 🔗
3,530 posts
Only 5 inches for me down here in SE NC? Hope it all comes in one big "DUMP"....I'd like to ski the new north facing 80' vert overpass on the new bypass they just built down here!....4 years in a row for above ave snow?..This global warming thing is GOOD.
Roger Z
October 16, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004 🔗
2,181 posts
That's pretty impressive Snowmakers. You ever think about going on and studying snow in grad school someday? I hear there are schools out west where you can actually get a doctoral in snow-ology (or whatever it's called) and then spend your life trundling around the backcountry, investigating things like avalanches, and of course backcountry skiing (and riding) to your heart's content. The best part? The PAY YOU to do this stuff. I swear I'm not making that up... read it in an article somewhere once. You could live the dream baby!
Snowmakers
October 16, 2005
Member since 11/23/2004 🔗
222 posts
Thanks. I do plan to go into a major in metorology. For this, Ill probably attend a school in Northern Vermont and get possibly a doctors degree in meteorology. But this is down the road a bit. But It would be great. They have a great hockey team, they are 7th in meteorology schooling in the US, It is close to Killington, Stowe, Jay, and Smuggs, and I could work as a snowmaker up there. That'd be the life.
therusty
October 17, 2005
Member since 01/17/2005 🔗
422 posts
Snowmakers,
The one big problem is one big blizzard could throw the map way out of whack. We get em what every 4-5 years on average? We're almost due. With the Atlantic oscillation in control, does that not increase the possibility of a Nor'Easter bringing a big dump?

It seems like Whitetail gets 30-40 inches in an average year. If this is a 20% > average year, one would think the forecast would be in the 35-50 range. It looks like you've got Whitetail getting 40-60. That's close.

Although it's probably too small, South Mountain (between Hagerstown and Thurmont) usually picks up a couple inches more snow per storm than Frederick or Hagerstown - that's probably a tiny slice of zone 5 surrounded by zone 4.

Anywho, you get my congratluations in advance for being ballsy enough to stick your name on a forecast like this.
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