When will it be???
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kwillg6
September 27, 2005
Member since 01/18/2005
2,020 posts
Ok, all you wannabe forcasters, when will the first snow event in the mid-atlantic be, where, and how much? The snow guru, Chip Chase has his pool on this topic on an annual basis for the valley. Closest to the actual time, date, amount and place wins an all expense paid trip to Moonshine Mountain Resort with deluxe accomodations for two!
Kris
September 28, 2005
Member since 03/15/2005
248 posts
Here is my estimated guess...It is supposed to be 37 degrees here thursday night...and im about 2000'...So im thinkin CV will be around 32 or colder...and it is supposed to rain here that night...IM not a weatherman but if its 32 degrees or colder and its raining...Im just putting 2 and 2 together and callin for some flurries in the valley thursday night...
jimmy
September 28, 2005
Member since 03/5/2004
2,650 posts
Deranged ya, clairvoyant nah, first snow somewhere between mchenry md and marlinton wv, are we talking accumulation or just some flurries? October 13th.

When's the earliest snow on the ground in Tucker county?
Roger Z
September 28, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004
2,181 posts
CV has seen snow in late October about five years in a row. I hate to bet against a sure thing but I'll say Nov 1 on the snowfall in the valley, two inches or so. The big surprise will be a mountain blizzard around thanksgiving. One of those where it only snows above 2000 feet. After the warm autumn, winter will make a dramatic "look who's coming to dinner" appearance and inundate every mountain top from Banner Elk to Somerset with 12-18 inches of fresh, wet snow, making it the earliest big dump the mid-atlantic mountains have received in a decade or more.
DCSki Sponsor: Seven Springs Mountain Resort
bawalker
September 28, 2005
Member since 12/1/2003
1,547 posts
If that happens, I'm getting the strand of 100 christmas lights, wrapping myself in them with a battery pack and taking a run off of The drop with nothing else on but the lights.

lol now watch it dump a blizzard during thanksgiving.
Roger Z
September 29, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004
2,181 posts
That would definitely go on the wall of shame... be sure to bring a camera!
bawalker
September 29, 2005
Member since 12/1/2003
1,547 posts
If that gets us an early fall blizzard like dump... then we all should be doing that. Besides, where are the bikini clad skiiers at anyways?

Off topic, I have heard from someone who listened to several meterologists that we could be in for a deep cold winter that could contain several blizzards. True or not... I'm putting my hopes behind that.
tgd
September 29, 2005
Member since 07/15/2004
585 posts
Not sure about blizzards this year. I always try to be pro-snow and as optimistic as possible; however, I can't understand why we have had one of the most active hurricane seasons in recent memory with something like 18 named storms yet it has been bone dry here in the Mid-Atlantic with rather tranquil (though hot) weather. I know hurricanes flow East to West while Nor-Easters (generally our blizzard makers) flow West to SE then NE along the coast. This can't all be explained by the hole in the ozone layer above Blue Knob. There is some pattern in place that seems to be shielding us from any turbulent weather here in the mid-Atlantic.
snowcone
September 29, 2005
Member since 09/27/2002
589 posts
bawalker .. Most of the MidA mets are currently in the process of preparing their winter weather predictions. Some have already published their forecasts and ... there seems to be a growing consensus that we will have a colder than normal [especially December] and snowier than normal winter. Several of the mets have predicted an early season storm [no blizzard] with most opting for 10-20 December and possibility of some snow around T-day.. Each met may use different assortments of models for analysis.. thus making this convergence of the individual predictions even more amazing.

My thought on this is that they can't -all- be wrong and since they are all saying pretty much the same thing .. we are going to have an early start to the season!!!

More ... someone mentioned that most of our storms are nor'easters but its seems to me some of our biggest resort dumps are lake effect stuff and this winter promises to have a bunch of LE dumps.
Roger Z
September 29, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004
2,181 posts
Quote:

My thought on this is that they can't -all- be wrong and since they are all saying pretty much the same thing ..




Holy cow are you an optimist. I mean, not only are you hoping for a snowy winter, you are also banking on a slew of meteorologists being correct. I've met some glass is half full folks in my day, but you're more like a "if the glass were any fuller we'd have us a flood" kind of fella.

All meant in good fun Snowcone, as a joke. I hope the mets are right too if they're predicting a cold and snowy winter- but I'd be just as happy right now if they were predicting a rainy fall and they were correct. Rita came through and all we got a measely half inch of rain. The plants are looking bleaker and bleaker, even non-seasonal streams are starting to go dry. Sheesh...
jimmy
September 29, 2005
Member since 03/5/2004
2,650 posts
Snowcone, u go girl , I love the positive attitude. Now that cloud skiing season is drawing to an end, what better than to look forward to a long, cold, SNOWY winter. Roger is just nervous because 1) New ***** and 2) his hokies are going down Saturday .

LETS GO MOUNTAINEERS!!!!!
Roger Z
September 29, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004
2,181 posts
No hijacking threads anymore Jimmy. If you wanna take this to the UNTOPIC, I'd be happy to meet you there...

And to keep this thread on subject, I'll stand by the call for a T-Day or pre T-Day snowstorm. Maybe it'll only be 8 inches, but it'll come. That's my optimistic bet. When's the last time we got a substantial snowfall prior to Dec 1?
tgd
September 29, 2005
Member since 07/15/2004
585 posts
Quote:


My thought on this is that they can't -all- be wrong and since they are all saying pretty much the same thing .. we are going to have an early start to the season!!!




You know, they can't -all- be right either. We are talking about meteorologists. But I hope you are right. I hate being on the wrong side of this discussion. I love snow and sacrifice daily praying for a winter that is even half as cold as Dick Cheney's heart (ooops should cross-post that to the untopic.).
kennedy
September 29, 2005
Member since 12/8/2001
792 posts
I think it is way too early to tell. I'd love to bank on turkey day but the last time it got that cold that fast was the winter of the almighty Pres. Day storm. As I recall that winter was extremely cold very early. The Potomac froze from bank to bank by Chrimbo and it was glorious. As I recall that was also the year we had a reasonably cool and pretty wet summer. I think it might have been the year where people were buying light boxes for artificial sunlight because they grim weqather was bothering them.

So with all that in mind I'm guessing prolly around Dec. 15th at best in the region of Frostburg MD.
fishnski
September 29, 2005
Member since 03/27/2005
3,530 posts
Was it last year or the year before when snowshoe got 5 to 6 inches on sept 28th? Its in the low 40's at 3700'(west va) at 8pm on the 29th with some clouds around.Snow flurries up on MPC?
myrto
September 29, 2005
Member since 10/4/2001
259 posts
We should make this official. 10-17 in the valley the first snow in the region of 2 inches or more. You can go ahead and call me genious now unless you don't believe me yet
kwillg6
September 30, 2005
Member since 01/18/2005
2,020 posts
Anybody remember back in 79 when there was 6" of snow in the Virgina Piedmont? I think the date was the Oct., 9th. The last early snow that I remember after that was the Vetern's day storm in the early 80's. This year I think that it will be white by t-day. But, what do I know????
snowcone
September 30, 2005
Member since 09/27/2002
589 posts
Only a couple of the meteorologists even mentioned T-day but the impression was that if it snowed it wouldn't be much. All of mets reporting so far are in agreement of a serious snow, but not necessarily a blizzard, within the December date range I quoted. I think I may have also mentioned in another thread that the prognosis was for a wetter and chillier October with a mild November that would cool rapidly towards the end of the month into early colder-then-normal December.

Anyway, the outlook is for a better winter than last year, without the rollercoaster warm ups, a good old fashioned WINTER like we had when we were kids!

And .. yes ... I am optimistic. I'm getting new skis, darnnit, and I want to woohoooooooooo!
Rickh
September 30, 2005
Member since 12/2/2004
130 posts
Did we get 11"+ in early Nov.'87? That's the last big one I remember prior to T-Day.
Roger Z
September 30, 2005
Member since 01/16/2004
2,181 posts
November 11th, 1987. My parents were kind enough to send me to school that day (seventh grade) while they cross-country skied around the neighborhood. I got home at ten p.m. after having yummy left over school pizza for dinner. While I didn't have to spend the night, it has- as you might be able to tell- been seared into my memory.

The funny thing about that November 11th snowstorm? Three days before it was 80 degrees and we were at Sandy Point. My folks were wind surfing and I was playing in the sand. As a matter of fact, I think my mom was out windsurfing on the 9th as well. It went from 80 to 14 inches of snow in less than 72 hours.

And the winter before that we got 48-50 inches of snow in DC. The winter of 86-87 was very, very nice for skiing. The follow-on winter turned into a dud- that early storm didn't lead to much in that season.

Think it was 1989 if I remember right that we got a white Thanksgiving and a white Christmas in DC for the first time in 60 years. That was the December that was a**-cold the whole month. We had highs in the teens, lots of snow, everything was pointing to a great winter and... it was 60 by January.

In 22 years of living in and around the Mid-Atlantic, I can only remember two consistently cold winters: 02-03 and 03-04. Back in the early 80s we did, though, seem to get a three to four week stretch of snow on the ground every year around DC. Not sure if that was the norm or just a temporary pattern that we happened to arrive in when we moved down from upstate New York.
jb714
September 30, 2005
Member since 03/4/2003
294 posts
Here's a bold prediction: 3" for CV on October 11, as a result of wrap-around cold air pulled down from Canada by the exiting hurricane 'Stan'.

We can always hope!
jimmy
September 30, 2005
Member since 03/5/2004
2,650 posts
Quote:

Ok, all you wannabe forcasters, when will the first snow event in the mid-atlantic be, where, and how much? The snow guru, Chip Chase has his pool on this topic on an annual basis for the valley. Closest to the actual time, date, amount and place wins an all expense paid trip to Moonshine Mountain Resort with deluxe accomodations for two!




jb thanx for bringing this back to the original question...wow.....Kim how did u do this???MSM in the first post.....you hijacked your own topic...how untopical...by christmas lights.....jb what you drinkin tonite? dogfishhead#60 for me...first two .
jb714
October 3, 2005
Member since 03/4/2003
294 posts
Jimmy:

Hadn't been on for a few days - I believe Fri night was Grolsch.....but it appears that the 5-day outlook calls for the development of a trough of Bass Ale over Virginia by the weekend.....
Rickh
October 3, 2005
Member since 12/2/2004
130 posts
Roger Z. I'll date myself on this one but here goes.. I was on my honeymoon Nov. 11th '87 in Duck NC. Went to bed one night after spending the day on the beach, woke up wondering why the house was so damn cold. Looked outside and you know what I said @#$#$. I did get married really young

Anyway, looking at the temps coming in maybe TLine will see a little white Friday night!!!

Ski and Tell

Snowcat got your tongue?

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