Snow predictions
September 16, 2005
31 posts
14 users
3k+ views
I fail to see why people put one iota of stock in Almanacs.
However I guess it is something to banter about over beer, so why not??
Hope springs eternal.
I thought it was fun. I suppose my darn youthful optimism got the better of me.
On the Eastern Weather forum, where I often lurk, there are postings from some of the top meteorologists in the US. They are already starting to formulate predictions for this winter and so far it looks OK, not great but not bad. The mets won't give their final predictions until sometime in November so this will have to hold us until then. One theory is that an intense hurricane season may be a precursor to a decent MidA winter.
So far for MidA:
-- colder weather than average for December, January and early February with significant warm up in early January
-- average snow fall for the season but with the possibility of a late season storm.
-- predicting early season storm with greater than normal snow fall, ditto early February.
Colder than average weather is, since MidA skiing existence is based on the ubiquitous snow gun and cold as integral parts, a very good thing. It's also nice to have some natural snow to mix in with the artificial stuff now and again to light it up.
I think we are going to have a GOOD season!
I am moving into eyore (the donkey from winny the pooh in case I misspelt it) mode right now. My prognostication for the winter: 70 degree weather that lasts until January, followed by a rapid freeze that gets our hopes up and then mud for two months afterward. Weather will turn butt-cold two weeks after the last ski resort closes on March 15th, and spring will be delayed until early June. By the time we are engulfed with humidity and heat in mid June, lovers of all types of weather will be enraged.
Here on DCSki, we will use our spare time to turn on each other over global warming, oil dependency, and the pros and cons of converting our now useless skis into support for furniture. Scott will give up in despair and start a new board, banning all of us from it. It will be called "DCMud," and feature epic mountain bike trips on 14th Street and other locales around the Beltway.
That is, of course, if we even have the internet anymore. The excessively warm winter may be the result of high radiation sunbursts that effectively disrupt all electrical communication. Satellites will be pelted with meteorites. Al Qaeda will win seats to the U.S. Congress in the 2006 election and post a candidate for president in 2008.
Am I missing anything in this dystopian forecast? Locusts?
Quote:
.Am I missing anything in this dystopian forecast? Locusts?
Maybe a catastrophic earthquake. When I was in grade school and living in NE Ohio a massive earthquake was predicted.
snowcone, how close are we to 2002 Thanksgiving blizzard patterns?
That was easily my best skiing year of the last 10.
oh I get it ... the ol' pessimistic-so-as-not-two-jinx-it ploy.
Sorry I missed that one Queen. Please amend my previous post to read:
Finally, a catastrophic earthquake will cause all of the mountains in West Virginia to collapse to an Iowa-like flatness.
Quote:
snowcone, how close are we to 2002 Thanksgiving blizzard patterns?
I was about to ask the same thing. To be honest I'm looking at weather right now and the trend for the year doesn't set up for an almighty winter. I have been living in my current home for 2 years. There is a small creek that runs beside it that also serves as our stormwater runoff. It was bone dry this weekend and although it was never a large body of water it is worrying to see it that way. I think we are setting into a mild dry pattern for the winter, I'm smelling another snowdrought like we had a few years ago.
comprex and kennedy: Today's topics on the forum concerned the correlation with an extreme hurricane season (>15 storms) and cold winter. Opinion seems to be that one leads to the other based on the convection needed to make those storms. Other indicators seem to be colder water surface temperatures in the N. Pacific (which is starting to be evident), negative NAO (North Atlantic oscillation) and warmer water surface temps in the Atlantic, which are looking to develop. Other prediction are for wetter than average October and early winter. Also mentioned is 2002 as a most probable analog year. I can't seem to figure out whether the 2002 reference means 2001-2 or 2002-3. Anyone remember what those winters was like?
So even if we don't get a blizzard it might be cold enuf for some of the local hills to have blown a few runs by T-day.
If I remember correctly the 2001-2002 season gave us that wonderful February blizzard.
That was 02-03. 01-02 was pretty dry, I think, but Whitegrass doesn't have the totals on their site so I dunno. That said- on Whitegrass' web page, they have a clipping of a local article. Says that Accuweather.com is also calling for a colder than normal winter.
Two weathermen calling for a colder than normal winter is tantamount to buying some suntan oil and heading for the beach...
Check out Chip's CV snowfall totals on Whitegrass.com - 01/02 was crappy (85"); 02/03 was epic (224").
I compared Chip's CV totals to the number of storms on the NHC Archives site - at least at a glance there seems like there could be a correlation. '95/96 had 237" and was preceded by 21 tropical storms; '03/04' had 196" and was preceded also by 21 storms; '04/05 had 162" and was preceded by 16 tropical storms.
On the flip side, '02/03' had 85" and was preceded by 17 tropical storms.
Quote:
'95/96 had 237" and was preceded by 21 tropical storms;
Ah, yes, 5 inches of black ice on the roads, I distinctly remember that also.
Quote:
I fail to see why people put one iota of stock in Almanacs.
However I guess it is something to banter about over beer, so why not??
Gat, any publication that can shed light on things like these......
"This year's almanac contains the usual mix of recipes, anectodes, corny jokes and quizzes. Helpful hints include how to remove tar from bare feet (use a cotton ball dipped in mineral water), how to keep mice away (place steel wool around pipes), and how to make fluffy scrambled eggs (use water instead of milk)."
....should be an authority on long range forecasting of the weather. Actually, i've compared the "old farmers" almanac's winter predictions and i think they get it pretty close.
They follwing is what i use to compare ski seasons past,
01/02: first day, 12/22, 3 days in december
02/03: 11/27, 9
03/04: 12/6, 7
04/05: 12/16, 4
I must mention that i bought new skis ahead of the rotten, slow starting 01/02 season and accept full responsibility for the late start. Hope no-one got new skis this year. ZZZ 
I didn't get any skis Jimmy. I got some extra long spoon looking things that seem to be good for eating breakfast and entertaining 10 month olds. I can't imagine how anyone- God, Mother Nature, Urrl, Val Halla, etc- could possibly mistake these washboards for a winter projectile object.
Good, let's keep it that way til THANKSGIVING!
If there is a correlation between Winter Storms and tropical storms I would think it would have more to do with storms in the Pacific, not the Atlantic. Most of our winter weather runs west to east.
Until a Canada clipper pulls south.
Most of our winter weather drops south from Canada, including our cold temperatures. So I doubt that tropical storms really affect it that much.
As far as that is concerned, most of our hills' natural snow is generally lake effect snow .. and THIS year the water of the great lakes reached record highs and is still unseasonably warm. All we need is a couple of clippers and we've got it made! First clippers are usually the latter half of November.
I would like to see Nor' Easter. Preferrably on a Sunday afternoon, when I am already at the ski resort. That way I can call in my regrets that I will be unable to make it back to work for a few days.
Quote:
Most of our winter weather drops south from Canada, including our cold temperatures. So I doubt that tropical storms really affect it that much.
A really well-written presentation is here (large .pdf file). Fig. T.6.1.11 for Mack, but it does explain NAOs and remote forcing and coastal upwelling as well.
If that's too abstruse, think of tropical storms as the great big low pressure Hoover vac that sucks south all that primo high pressure cold air. Then go re-read The Perfect Storm.
That actually happened to us at Snowshoe a couple of years ago. It was the BEST feeling to call into the office and said we were stuck and couldnt get to work! Tuesday wasn't quite so much fun .. white knuckled we followed a series of snowplows down the mountain to Elkins then to Weston because 250 north was snowed in, on the innerstate 79 to 68 and across the back of the Allegheneys. It took us 7 hours to reach Cumberland and another 4 hours from there to home. It was amazing! I have some photoes of the roads or what we could see of them, we were in 4WD all the way. Looking back it was dumb not to have stayed at SS for another day.
Speaking of Noreasters..we are way past due for them.The last few years have seen above normal snowfalls but with declining amounts each year.We recieved all this snow in the form of lake effect or clipper type systems.So i feel that even if we have a little less lake effect a couple of Noreasters will make up the difference.With the lake water temps bieng above normal the early season cold blasts could be fruitfull for the highlands & the above normal atlantic could kick in a couple of hefty coastals.In conclusion I'm with Rogerz..it will be a mudfest!!
Today the pro mets are starting to post their predictions. So far the consensus seems to be:
-- Cold & wet October
-- Mild November
-- Cold December with high possibility of snow storm late Nov early Dec - this would keep the ground cool thereby allowing conditions for more snow later in Dec.
-- Warm up January with late month storm
-- Cold February
-- Cold March
The analog year most quoted seems to be 2002-3 .. which was a GOOD year for MidA skiers! One of the posts on the weather forum indicates that DCA got 44" that season.
If a January warmup means 30-45F highs and 25-35F lows then I'm all for it. But PLEASE nothing again like we had last year with the lows of 40F during January till Feb when some snow finally came in.
Lets hope. I hate to see more grass than snow on the slopes in January.
Hey, maybe snowcone has found the connection. a wet (read tropical storms, etc..) equates to high lake water levels which in turn means more lake effect snow.
