Lousy Conditions Algorithm
22 posts
14 users
2k+ views
HVdad
3 months ago
Member since 01/9/2018 🔗
78 posts
In the process of creating a multifactor algorithm to predict the chances that you'll be skiing in corn, crud, and/or rain for each of the mid-Atlantic ski areas during the 2022/23 season. Results to be released December 17. What do you consider the most important criterion?
JimK - DCSki Columnist
3 months ago
Member since 01/14/2004 🔗
2,852 posts
Not sure exactly what you're looking for, but the one condition that is always tough to persevere on the slopes is an all-day soaker rain.  I've done it many, many times over the years, but it's definitely something I'd try to avoid if I had the knowledge and flexibility to do so.  An algorithm that tells you when heavy, all-day rain is highly likely would be quite important to me.  I can deal with just about anything else and make the best of it.
mdr227
2 months ago
Member since 01/11/2016 🔗
169 posts
One of the biggest impacts on conditions that is tough to predict the day before is timing of snowmaking and grooming.    
wgo
2 months ago
Member since 02/10/2004 🔗
1,534 posts
Maybe flagging when a hard freeze has occurred overnight after a day of rain? Although as noted before grooming can really help in those situations.
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Moe Gull
2 months ago
Member since 09/5/2022 🔗
25 posts
Big temperature swings from above freezing to below is not good for conditions and Im sure you can work that in there.
Crush
2 months ago
Member since 03/21/2004 🔗
1,126 posts


 Weighted polynomial will yield better results based on scraping noaa.gov website for various locations and long range predictions. Combine with actual data from snow reports from our local resorts in terms of delta base depth etc. would be a viable model. Put the data lake into something and use Tableau to create dashboards with filters based on location. I'm surprised one one has written this - I would but I am way too busy at my new job.

HVdad wrote:

In the process of creating a multifactor algorithm to predict the chances that you'll be skiing in corn, crud, and/or rain for each of the mid-Atlantic ski areas during the 2022/23 season. Results to be released December 17. What do you consider the most important criterion?
Scott - DCSki Editor
2 months ago
Member since 10/10/1999 🔗
1,205 posts

Curious to see how this works out!  Years ago I developed an algorithm for DCSki that looks at a variety of data points to estimate the viability of snowmaking at local resorts.  The algorithm is incorporated into the weather section of DCSki Resort Profiles.  It evaluates real-time data such as temperature, dew point, precipitation, wind, etc. and has been fairly reliable over the years.  (Showing a screenshot below, which isn't too interesting, as it's too warm to make snow.)  But I've never tried to predict snow surface conditions.  That is structured data that is reported by most ski areas (SnoCountry is a reporting entity that collects that data), but it's not independently verified, so not sure it could be considered "ground truth" data since it's self-reported and prone to marketing bias.  If you did trust that data, it would be interesting to compare your algorithm with what the resorts are reporting to see how it compares/contrasts.

1667954997_uunqelfeehpi.jpg

Crush
2 months ago
Member since 03/21/2004 🔗
1,126 posts
Scott! That is amazing! Wow think about putting that public! Dayum !!!
Denis - DCSki Supporter 
2 months ago (edited 2 months ago)
Member since 07/12/2004 🔗
2,298 posts

Lousy conditions; well it depends on your taste.  Nobody likes ice of course.

The first time my son and I skied Mammoth we arrived just ahead of a multi day storm of the type you only get in the Sierra and Cascades.  Roads were closed for the next 6 days and it snowed 9 feet of light dry powder.  After the first day full refunds on day tickets were offered to those who said their day was ruined by the conditions.  The second and subsequent days they posted signs at the ticket windows, “no refunds for snow conditions today.”  The high lifts never opened and everything was shut down for a few hours several times by lightning.  Trenches were dug under lifts so the chairs wouldn’t bottom out.  We had a fantastic time.  Very few people were skiing.  

There was no grooming.  They couldn’t keep up with intense squalls with snow falling 2-5”/hr.  At one point we saw a snow cat sitting in deep snow, spinning its tank tracks and going nowhere, just digging itself into an ever deeper hole.  We were doubled over in laughter.  The driver noticed us, threw his hands up in the air and laughed too.

Crush
2 months ago
Member since 03/21/2004 🔗
1,126 posts

yeah so funny - I remember a powder day at Deer Valley and the person in front of me was arguing with the ticket window person that "... I want a refund - it's snowing !"

Oy

pagamony - DCSki Supporter 
2 months ago
Member since 02/23/2005 🔗
882 posts
You only need one variable - my sechedule.   Pretty much guarentees snow will start the day I leave.  
pagamony - DCSki Supporter 
2 months ago
Member since 02/23/2005 🔗
882 posts


I had a similar experience on my one trip to Kirkwood.   Snow was already up to the 2nd floor balconies and we barely beat the new storm into the village.  Avy canons went non stop for 2 days and roads closed.  Upper lifts never opened but that's ok the snow was up to my hips in some places.  The main parking lot was 90% empty.  It was glorious. 

Denis wrote:

Lousy conditions; well it depends on your taste.  Nobody likes ice of course.

The first time my son and I skied Mammoth we arrived just ahead of a multi day storm of the type you only get in the Sierra and Cascades.  Roads were closed for the next 6 days and it snowed 9 feet of light dry powder.  After the first day full refunds on day tickets were offered to those who said their day was ruined by the conditions.  The second and subsequent days they posted signs at the ticket windows, “no refunds for snow conditions today.”  The high lifts never opened and everything was shut down for a few hours several times by lightning.  Trenches were dug under lifts so the chairs wouldn’t bottom out.  We had a fantastic time.  Very few people were skiing.  

There was no grooming.  They couldn’t keep up with intense squalls with snow falling 2-5”/hr.  At one point we saw a snow cat sitting in deep snow, spinning its tank tracks and going nowhere, just digging itself into an ever deeper hole.  We were doubled over in laughter.  The driver noticed us, threw his hands up in the air and laughed too.

ZARDOG
2 months ago
Member since 10/25/2020 🔗
142 posts

Hello,  any day skiing is better than not. But I avoid skiing in the rain. Unless I have to race.

I have an easy a - d scale with 3 factors. Base Depth, # of trails open, and primary surface report.

https://www.skidome.org/skirate.htm

I can ski almost anything from ice to mud. In most cases, I can find a stash.

I started skiing mostly at night. 

- So many variables. 

wet bulb

temp

humidity

wind

sun

rain

grooming time and SETUP time

people  traffic

I look for 3  nights of snowmaking and cold. 

one I like is a water bottle in the car. if frozen solid going to be good local.

AM mid-week is very addictive ---non holiday and nonschool closed days. 

zardog

itdoesntmatter
2 months ago
Member since 01/17/2007 🔗
147 posts

Wow Crush,  ("data lake, model, Tableau")...you must be a data warehouse guru in your other life.  

 

Crush wrote:


 Weighted polynomial will yield better results based on scraping noaa.gov website for various locations and long range predictions. Combine with actual data from snow reports from our local resorts in terms of delta base depth etc. would be a viable model. Put the data lake into something and use Tableau to create dashboards with filters based on location. I'm surprised one one has written this - I would but I am way too busy at my new job.

HVdad wrote:

In the process of creating a multifactor algorithm to predict the chances that you'll be skiing in corn, crud, and/or rain for each of the mid-Atlantic ski areas during the 2022/23 season. Results to be released December 17. What do you consider the most important criterion?
Crush
2 months ago
Member since 03/21/2004 🔗
1,126 posts

Nah - just throw me into the lake 😁

 

itdoesntmatter wrote:

Wow Crush,  ("data lake, model, Tableau")...you must be a data warehouse guru in your other life.  

 

Crush wrote:


 Weighted polynomial will yield better results based on scraping noaa.gov website for various locations and long range predictions. Combine with actual data from snow reports from our local resorts in terms of delta base depth etc. would be a viable model. Put the data lake into something and use Tableau to create dashboards with filters based on location. I'm surprised one one has written this - I would but I am way too busy at my new job.

HVdad wrote:

In the process of creating a multifactor algorithm to predict the chances that you'll be skiing in corn, crud, and/or rain for each of the mid-Atlantic ski areas during the 2022/23 season. Results to be released December 17. What do you consider the most important criterion?
Grumpy dad
2 months ago
Member since 11/7/2021 🔗
77 posts

:)

This is cool.  And I'm not sure sure how scientific you can make it but here are some of my observations.  Maybe we could crowd source enough data to put something together, that the ski industry would hate you for. 

ALL East coast based observations:

Big snow (wet or dry) - get there early and get out early if crowded. If you are a boarder you will be miserable trying to ride over all the bumps by mid morning.  Skiers can weather this a bit better but it doesnt make for a relaxing day.  Wait for the next day for the best groomed runs, unless rain is in the forecast and you must get that pow.  For beginners riding gentle greens and cat tracks, this really doesnt affect them as much so - ride on through the day and enough the soft stuff to fall/learn on. 

Rain the day before followed by a sharp freeze overnight after grooming.- AVOID AT ALL COSTS.  Groomer lines will be as hard as cement.  Wait several days until all of that gets chopped up to granular stuff.

No new snow/new snowmaking in the last 5 days that  proceeded many sunny days or rain- prepare for granular stuff with ice below.  Prepare for boiler plate ice in the middle of the steeper slopes.

Even an inch or two of snow on top of granular conditions can make for a much better riding experience.

It all comes down to this:  Fresh snow that hasnt thawed alot, can be groomed over and over and will provide the best skiing experience for up to a week.  

The worst skiing seasons are those that have little snow fall, rain then freezing.

Crush
2 months ago
Member since 03/21/2004 🔗
1,126 posts

So this suggests an app - hmmmm AWS? We'd have to register humans so it doesn't get trashed with 'bots - oooh use GPS data that maps where you are and just gives a simple ranking/scoring system the user fills in. You might even use something like the card-counting scoring strategy as used in Blackjack or Texas hold-em. Good marketing strategy would be to team up with getcarv.com and mod their app to do the above.

OK! Maybe my retirement activity! I feel someone can write this but the P & L is questionable - tho you will be well loved and probably come in 7th place behind Linus Pauling ( not bad ) !

djop
2 months ago
Member since 03/18/2002 🔗
341 posts

So, while waiting for OP's app, I went and ordered another Dirtlej.   

  All day soaking rain?   Bring it on.  :D 

ZARDOG
2 months ago
Member since 10/25/2020 🔗
142 posts

Hi,

ha, Crush DataLake, 

Here we hope for 100 days open. 

Of which my guess is 33% Really nice 

50% Good and the rest not so good days to play. 

I had 17 days out last season. all days were great. I have flexibility. 

Ed aka zardog

pagamony - DCSki Supporter 
2 months ago
Member since 02/23/2005 🔗
882 posts
Thinking about this some more.  How far out do you want to predict?  Are you looking at classical forecasting methods or newer machine learning methods?  Motivates me to look at snocountry data.  
Grumpy dad
2 months ago
Member since 11/7/2021 🔗
77 posts

7S was granular on Sunday, Soft Saturday late afternoon > evening, and slushy/icy/grabby/pond skim earlier Saturday.

Right now there is about 1-2" of loose granular over hard packed granular over boiler plate ice.  

I dont know how you get an method to detect that honestly.

Safe to say though, that this week is going to suck bigtime.  Rain solid for 3 days,...warm temps.  Yikes.  

Oh and did anyone notice that the Epic pass is OFF SALE.  Meaning, you cant buy it?!  Wow, they werent bluffing, like all the other times they said BUY NOW before the prices go up (then the price goes up $1).  I am shocked they no longer are selling passes before xmas.  Guess alot of people are going to be paying window prices this year.

marzNC - DCSki Supporter 
2 months ago
Member since 12/10/2008 🔗
2,988 posts

Grumpy dad wrote:

Oh and did anyone notice that the Epic pass is OFF SALE.  Meaning, you cant buy it?!  Wow, they werent bluffing, like all the other times they said BUY NOW before the prices go up (then the price goes up $1).  I am shocked they no longer are selling passes before xmas.  Guess alot of people are going to be paying window prices this year.

 Epic passes have always gone off sale by mid-December as I understand it.  In fact, used to gone after late November until relatively recently.  Of course, the pandemic scrambled deadlines for a couple years.

The Ikon deadline is also before mid-December.

Only the MCP had seasons when it was available in January.  That was after it disappeared for a few weeks during the the end of year holiday blackout period.

Ski and Tell

Snowcat got your tongue?

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