Mid-Atlantic 10 Day Weather Outllook
To put it bluntly: it sucks!
Most ten day forecasts I am looking at indicate that the region's western resorts will not be getting weather cold enough to make snow during this period. That kind of rules out any skiing for the Thanksgiving period, and to be honest, I'm starting to worry about early December. Any thoughts people? When do you think Snowshoe will open? What about Wisp, Timberline, and 7 Springs?
Yep I'm feeling a little anxious. It's getting cool at night but the temps are just not dropping to where we need them.I was really hoping to take advantage of the lesson deal at Whitetail but the way this is looking the window to really take advantage of this is shrinking rapidly. Right now I'd be surprised if any of them except maybe Snowshoe get anyway open before the middle of next month
We always book a long weekend at the Shoe the weekend before Christmas. We've done for the last 5 years for our warm-up/refresher for the season. Anyway, in those 5 years Snowshoe has always been fully open the 3rd weekend in December. Sometimes just barely, with Silver Creek and Western Territories opening that weekend. About 50% of the time they have a good dump around the 2nd weekend of December but I wouldn't expect much in the way of skiing before that.
Personally, I wouldn't book anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic for Thanksgiving and expect to ski. You want to ski in November go west, especially this year.
Well John, accorging to the DCSki 5 Day there is one nihgt of margina snow making coming up for Davis,WV.
weather.com has some better outlook for the end of the 10 day period w/ 4/5 days with lows below freezing at the end of that period.
I am not too worried about the temps. If they have 4 nihgts in a row below 32 then the resorts will be a open'in shortly there after. It doesn't take 'em long to get started with the snow making most places have.
I like Accuweather.com over Weather.com. They seem to be more accurate. Accuweather predicts that the cold weather will return on 11/29. However, that being said, Accuweather provides a 15 day forcast, but I have found that once you get beyond 5 days the accuracy falls off. Thus, I don't think they have any better idea what's going to happen in 10 days than the wooly bear catapilar. There is a cold blast entering the westen part of the country. Weather moves from west to east so it's going to get here sooner or later. Who knows we might get lucky.
The last few Octobers have all been warmer than normal, and if I remember right, the last two Novembers have been warmer than normal as well. This one certainly has been. I think we're going to hit a wall sometime in the next few weeks where the temps are going to go from the 50s to the 30s in a matter of a day or two and then stay there for the balance of the winter. But that's just a WAG (wild-a**-guess) on my part.
Just talked with someone from Elkins and they said if things don't make a big change, no skiing for Thanksgiving.
For what it's worth, what I remember of last Thanksgiving is that Wisp opened the day after Thanksgiving with only the Bunny slope (served by the new Magic Carpet lift). It was fairly warm Thanksgiving day, but it turned colder that night - we skied at Wisp that Friday and they had rec'd maybe 7" of natural snow on top of the machine snow they'd pumped out. 7 Springs did not open until after THanksgiving weekend last year - I remember that specifically because I'd hoped to ski there, but they hadn't opened, so we opted for Wisp. Don't recall whether Snowshoe was open or not.
For the record, it felt mighty silly riding the Magic Carpet, but it felt damn good to be on snow after 7 months
Now as far as the long term forecast goes (like months out), I wont write
this is the column and I do not want to plagarize anyone's ideas, BUT
there are some very good forecasters that have been dead on so far this
winter...and if they continue to be dead on, we are in for one helluva Jan-
March period. I feel that we will get a good dose of winter in the first
part of December and as a whole, the month will be near normal temp wise
and snowfall. But the fun and games start in January when an area of
abnormally high water temps migrates to the Gulf of Alaska. I've been
hearing, from some conservative forecasters that do not hype cold and
snow, that all lleh should break loose later in the season in the form of
East coast blizzards. Mentions of another Superstorm like '93, Great
White Hurricanes like in February '78, ect.
This is a quote from the link in Denis' post. I don't know whether to be thrilled or terrified.
I was born in a car on the way to the hospital because of that February 78 snowstorm.
I recently stocked my condo at Timberline with extra non-perishable food. I'm expecting to be snowed in this winter.
Someone mentioned the reliability of accuweather & I also took the svc to heart with thier cold blast well in advance of the T-giving holidays F-cast.Since then I have had to abandon any thoughts of WV,the pocconos & now i am worried that the catskills might not do the trick & i will have to migrate up to Gore mtn.This wouldn't be a bad thing if i didn't live SO FAR SOUTH! I do think that SS can pull off skiing sat & sun but they might opt to cancel.I'm hoping that hunter & windham will be as far north as i will have to go for some thanksgiving skiing! Happy gobble du gee everyone!
A few days ago, Joe Murgo, one of the weathermen on TV 10, Altoona, PA, gave his annual Winter forecast. He is calling for a mild Winter with below average snowfall. He also noted that his Winter forecast for LAST Winter was dead-on (he called for below average temps with above average snowfall). Also, this month is going to go-down as averaging significantly above normal in temp. And, when the mid-Atlantic has a mild November, there is a 67% chance that it will be followed with a mild Winter. Furthermore, should this Winter turn out to be cold and snowy, it would be the 3rd cold and snowy Winter in a row, which is rather unusual for the mid-Atlantic. So, I hate to rain on anyone's Winter parade, but it's looking more and more like a mild Winter for the mid-Atlantic.
Joe Bastardi of Accuweather is much more optimistic:
"The split jet for now may actually be taking away from that, and allowing the processes in Asia to take over and push cold air into North America deeper and deeper with time. It remains to be seen if the final process can occur, but the more we step down, the better the chance of the whole thing just tanking into the extreme."
The first temperature stepdown will occur on Turkey day. The next will occur in early Dec, and the big one, around Christmas. This is going to be a good winter folks. We don't need snow--just cold temperatures for those lovely guns. But cold brings snow and snow begets more snow. Do I hear lake effect??? Bring it on!
Amen. Farmers almanac looks good too. Pretty much says what you just posted.
"Much of the beginning of winter will be warmer than average with average to slightly below average snowfall. But by the winter's end, the 2004-2005 winter season will be remembered for its bitter cold and heavy snowfall."
Lets hope its right!
All I know is that when the west gets it good, we seem to get it bad
and vice versa. I think it is a jetstream thing.