COVID - means planning and each Country, State and County has different rules
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skiracerx
one month ago
Member since 11/24/2008
226 posts

Running the race team I have to look at many states now and forward look. Not fun this year because of the forced rapid change we all have gone through. 

Just data no politics you decide. Each human will decide regardless of government mandate if they choose to "Self Preserve" 

WHY does all this matter to pre-planning? ah - Because if you fly a State may impose a quarantine upon arrival. 

BWI to SL Utah at 245$ Round trip in Dec is a steal.  

In Ski Racing we actually have rules that work for all states and all countries with standards by ASTM, CE, and Governing bodies.

-Everywhere uses different metrics and close open metrics. Kinda crazy for sure. 

France, Spain and Israel all are heading to a lockdown again and all use the same metric but different rates.  Infections per 100,000. 

USA is the same each state different counts and metrics. 

An interesting set of data is produced by Hopkins their case positive rate removes multiple tests on a person. MD Covid Positive rate is total tests.  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/maryland     Using Hopkins case postive data 28 States are above the 5% recommended. 

Good news is the death rate is falling beacuse of better thearpy and less hospital resource use by 30% each. 

The notion more tests = higher rate is no longer true we peaked at daily testing in MD. We are rising in the 7 day moving avg of cases unfortunately.  

many racers are over 60, first number age for risk level. I am just below 60 and still have a 4 for risk. 

Look Ahead is hard, the projections on infections I can trust out 1 month, they do not look promising. Out to Jan 1.. 

We do see companies preparinng for a increase in cases in December. 

Not an easy year to plan - hang in their.  Each State will list the state you travel from and if you need to be aware.

Ed 

marzNC - DCSki Supporter
one month ago
Member since 12/10/2008
2,223 posts

It's definitely hard to plan ahead when travel restrictions change weekly.  I've been following NM because I have a trip to Taos planned for February.  Meeting up with friends from several states so we are in different situations.  The following summary is a start, but it's not always the entire story.  For instance for NM it sounds like a 14-day self-quarantine is the only way.  But in fact at this point having a negative test 72 hours before arrival is sufficient to avoid the need for self-quarantine.  So it's always better to look around for the official rules on state website.

As far as I can tell, CO, UT, WY, ID, MT are unlikely to impose travel restrictions.  On the other hand, NY and New England states are working hard to keep people from outside the region away.  VT has the most stringent travel restrictions, which even apply to people in VT counties with higher rates than "low risk" VT counties.

updating weekly, started Aug. 7, NBS News

U.S. states and territories are making new rules for travelers. Find which ones across the United States have implemented travel restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/map-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-inside-united-states-n1236157

 

marzNC - DCSki Supporter
one month ago
Member since 12/10/2008
2,223 posts

As for tracking the situation in multiple states, I tend to look at CovidActNow the most often.  If you scroll down to Trends, it's easy to compare a state with others to see regional differences or similarities.  Can compare Cases, Deaths, and Hospitalizations.  I also look at rt.live to see whether community spread is increasing, stable, or decreasing.

https://covidactnow.org/?s=1102246

skiracerx
one month ago
Member since 11/24/2008
226 posts

not easy even for experts... https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

each state and country is different, we shall see the pattern by mid November. 

the link above I ran - CO, UT, VT and vermont looked better then the rest. all do show a peak. 

I use projected infection rate and have no clue as to each state;  what they will do if the infection goes up like in Spain and France, UK, etc. 

many are a low risk. as in not on the CDC lisk of risk. 

I did get Reg Fu shot sat and get PPSV23 Pneumonia booster in 2 weeks. Vitamin D is always low - I have to supplement it.

Not just weather planning, work planning, money planning but now covid planning. Add the reading what is covered by insurance and if you can move a date or move to next year. 

 

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skiracerx
one month ago
Member since 11/24/2008
226 posts

covidnow thanks for that tip :o)   

 

marzNC - DCSki Supporter
19 days ago (edited 19 days ago)
Member since 12/10/2008
2,223 posts

Well, the VT authorities are making it difficult for the businesses that depend on ski resorts being open this winter.  A huge document with all sorts of rules has just been released.  I'm not going to bother to read it since I have no plans to ski in New England in general.  Regardless of the content, seems a bit late to release guidance given that the season normally starts in a few weeks.

For those on Facebook, apparently Northeast Sociology has a summary, with commentary. 

Vermont Ski Resort COVID- 19 Winter Operations Guidance

https://accd.vermont.gov/sites/accdnew/files/documents/Vermont%20Ski%20Resort%20COVID-19%20Winter%20Operations%20Guidance%20-%202020-11-03.pdf

ZARDOG
19 days ago
Member since 10/25/2020
21 posts

marzNC  I saw the new update, I also called New York state Government # 

The NY state number the Rep was a skier (very nice guy) and very bummed but he told me restrictions would change today. They did- even tighter.

States will update Thursdays each week. Expect change. 

QUOTE """"

Ski areas are mandated to collect the name, phone number, and email of every guest to the resort each day for contact tracing purposes, similar to New York state guidelines for ski areas. Guests must also attest that they are in compliance with the state’s travel and quarantine policies. This information can be collected in advance online or on-site.    END QUOTE """""

Well that says it all.  ATTEST that you are in compliance. Attest is a legal term that refers to the act of a person swearing to or affirming the truth of something.   

some good news - model runs every week and 7-day lag. Models, as they run, are like weather models they bounce a bit but as they close in they align.

The summary Peak dates are moving some back a bit some forward. NH, CO, UT  very high case count run 1 today much more in line. 

run 2 avg case of the selected states dropped a bit. Based on run 2 Park avg is Mid Dec through January  

1604455267_nbzoslpstlxn.jpg

IF you plan to ski board and local midweek off-peak is the best bet. The issue in winter is less ventilation indoors and low humidity.  

you will get your fun in just have to be flexible. Tuesdays always a good day.  

ed



marzNC - DCSki Supporter
19 days ago (edited 19 days ago)
Member since 12/10/2008
2,223 posts

ZARDOG wrote:

marzNC  I saw the new update, I also called New York state Government # 

The NY state number the Rep was a skier (very nice guy) and very bummed but he told me restrictions would change today. They did- even tighter.

States will update Thursdays each week. Expect change. 

QUOTE """"

Ski areas are mandated to collect the name, phone number, and email of every guest to the resort each day for contact tracing purposes, similar to New York state guidelines for ski areas. Guests must also attest that they are in compliance with the state’s travel and quarantine policies. This information can be collected in advance online or on-site.    END QUOTE """""

Well that says it all.  ATTEST that you are in compliance. Attest is a legal term that refers to the act of a person swearing to or affirming the truth of something.   

Clearly VT got the idea of requiring detailed info for contact tracing purposes from the NY guidelines.  However the VT guidelines seem to go one step farther and that's the issue.  Not only are ski resorts required to collect the info, it's supposed to be in electronic form.  Presumably in a searchable database.  Coming up with a system like that in a few weeks is a tall order.

I'm not planning on reading the NY or VT guidelines since I have no plans to ski in either state this season.  Only friend I know who plans to ski in NY who doesn't live there is in PA.  So doesn't have to worry about travel restrictions since NY isn't going to fuss about PA, NJ, CT because it would be too impractical.

Good to know there are knowledgeable people who can answer NY travel restrictions questions by phone.

marzNC - DCSki Supporter
19 days ago
Member since 12/10/2008
2,223 posts
The NY travel restrictions as of Nov. 4 no longer are based on a list of states.  It's based on individual testing, more than once.  I think that makes a long weekend for skiing pretty difficult for anyone who lives farther south than PA or NJ.
ZARDOG
14 days ago
Member since 10/25/2020
21 posts

No new model updates.  Does not look pretty.  https://covidactnow.org/

This site is a bit better and gives case per 100k, R Rate Positive rate ICU headroom. 

since you know where you are going maybe take a look down at the county level. 

 1604955013_pyyjqmxwtiva.jpg   Nov 9.  Northeast USA is expected to go RED in future

 

 

itdoesntmatter
13 days ago
Member since 01/17/2007
114 posts

2021-the lost ski season...

I'm glad I haven't bought an airline ticket yet.

But as my Dad always said, things could always be worse.

ZARDOG
13 days ago
Member since 10/25/2020
21 posts

my shrinks psychologists say the same.   I read at a high rate and can find the most sources.

  will ride the wave. go early or after the peaks if possible.  Half of my team is over 50. 

MY PCP doc gave me a level of 5 risk.   low-risk person is a 0.  

My doc says ed you are 57.5 can live another 20+, means plenty of time to ski.  MY doctor and her kid's ski. 

we are aware of - LONG COVID - the aftereffect can come back months later, 23%  have lingering symptoms out 2 months. 3% death rate vs reg flu at less than 1%. Attacks endothelium cells. The lining of organs and arteries. 

1605027893_zkpkmrlngazm.jpg

ZARDOG
9 days ago
Member since 10/25/2020
21 posts

the new and improved covid ouija board -

designed to figure out where to ski on a given day.

nickhaas212
6 days ago
Member since 11/13/2019
3 posts

It looks like states are going to go for somewhat of a soft shut down. VA is going to start mandating mask everywhere and essential workers start working from home if possible (not healthcare). WV looks like they are starting to mandate mask in any setting as well. I would not be surprised to see everything that is indoors to be shut down again. However, the uncertainty of outdoor recreation looms largely. Will states require people to get vaccinated if they plan to travel?

What are the thoughts on how this will affect the resorts, capacity limits, rental homes, and the entire ski season? I

If you saw A-Basin at the opening, it was a disaster, to say the least with overcrowding.

ZARDOG
6 days ago
Member since 10/25/2020
21 posts

truth is not looking good  - CDC has all projection models up. CO, UT not good  MD increasing case counts daily and testing over 35,000 people a day. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/forecasts-cases.html

even without a govt mandate humans will self preserve 

MD is projected at peak of 130 cases per day. 

top 8 states today NOV 17, by Positive Test Rate 

1605626152_icszfcwnazyh.jpg

marzNC - DCSki Supporter
5 days ago
Member since 12/10/2008
2,223 posts

Loveland has been doing fine from what I heard from a local family.  People are adjusting at Wolf Creek.  Sounds like the lifties are being pretty stern about telling people to mask up.

PA is adopting travel restrictions based on individual testing as of late this week.  Doesn't apply to people who need to cross the stateline for work.  But obviously is trying to deter folks from states to the south and west from traveling to PA for social or leisure travel.  NY wasn't applying travel restrictions to PA residents because it was too impractical.  OH and WV are probably the targets more than folks from NoVA.  The Percent Positive for Ohio is around 10%.

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