for us, it's all about the NAO going negative..when it goes negative, we get winter weather. there it goes!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html and email from bob leffler says:
"All,
This is an early heads up....I do not agree with weather forecasts calling for rain showers and highs 45-to-50 degrees next week in the Canaan Valley and surrounding WV high country above 3,000 feet elevation.
Numerical models continue to advertise an extended period of well below-normal temperatures and showery upslope mountain precipitation next Monday through Thursday. Although still several days away, I currently anticipate an extended period of intermittent snow showers possible from Monday (4-9-12) through Thursday with highs mainly in the 30's above 3, 000 feet. Below 2,500 feet, I expect mostly rain showers, with some mixed rain and snow possible, especially at night.
Several inches accumulation are possible during this 3-day plus period at elevations of 3,000 feet and higher. Totals will be strongly elevation dependent. Folks should be prepared for dangerous winter-like weather conditions including gusty winds on ground and roads above 3,500 feet and especially in the high back country (Spruce Knob National Recreation Area, Dolly Sods, etc.).
While this is climatologically not unusually late for accumulating snows on the higher ground, it will be a shock to everything given the all-time record warm and early spring so far this season. Even the valley floor of Canaan Valley (3,250 ft.) averages nearly a half-inch of snow in May."
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