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State of the Climate
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Updated 8 days ago
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5 months ago
Snowing in the Sierras mid June..not just a dusting..real snow!….where you been Camp?….. Still a good bit above average Snow cover left up north…you would think that as hot as its been reported it would have melted by now…oh..its still Snowing!… (Lazy post from phone and bed)
5 months ago
Squaw Valley Spring/Summer Operating Schedule​Open for skiing and riding on Saturdays & Sundays June 10-25, 10am-2pmOpen for skiing and riding July 1-4, 10am-2pmOpen for skiing and riding on Saturdays starting July 8 into summer as conditions allow from 10am-2pmAerial Tram open for sightseeing Mon-Fri 10:40am-4:20pm, Sat-Sun 10am-4:20pm, last download at 5pm. Open for skiing Sat-Sun & July 1-4 10am-2pm…………………….. 24 degrees and snowing upper mtn early monday morning..12th of June…144 inch base left on top..thats Amazing!……….(open on Saturdays after July 4th till further notice….)
5 months ago

Hello fish, I saw a report that there is skiing on six continents at teh moment. I joked “climate change” and received a lecture about the difference between weather and climate change. Seems that the weather forecast is just an educated guess, a probablity, not a guarantee of what is going to happen somewhere between tomorrow and five days from now because it is just to hard to predict precisly. Climate scientists can predict with great certainty what is going to happen years into the future unless a carbon exchange, similar to a stock exchange is funded immediatley. We should let the climate scientists start predicting the weather.

5 months ago

The site has been slow, so I’ll take the bait this time. Just numericaly, it’s always easier to predict a global mean than a local event. The weather guys actually do much better with local event prediction than some other fields such as financial markets. A probability is the result of a model of a statistical distribution, an educated guess has no such bounds. Yes I consider this interesting.   

I wonder if anyone has skiied 6 continents in one season.  That would be a very beer-worthy. 

 

 

5 months ago

I am guessing that there is no snow skiing in Africa at the moment?

When my one of my big investments in carbon futures, aged scotch whisky or pork bellies comes through I think I’ll take a couple dozen of my closest friends on just such a trip, six continents in one season. 

5 months ago

jimmy wrote:

I am guessing that there is no snow skiing in Africa at the moment?

When my one of my big investments in carbon futures, aged scotch whisky or pork bellies comes through I think I’ll take a couple dozen of my closest friends on just such a trip, six continents in one season. 

And if frozen orange juice concentrate makes me my millions you’ll be at the top of my list. We’ll knock them out over a 1 month period. 

5 months ago

Gonna be up at Yellowstone and Jackson next week.  Not taking skis this trip though.  Mom’s in charge and she don’t ski.  Fishing gear is packed though.  Picking up an RV in SLC and rolling north for a week.  Maybe I could sneak some ski blades in my checked bag and drop Corbetts on them?  Bet it’s quite gnarly this late in the summer thaw.  Hold my beer!

5 months ago
How dare you joke about Climate change Jimmy!….we got it wrong in the 70’s about going back into an ice age but by Golly we got er down now…even Owl Bore said that the math he was using 11 years ago which should have lead to a complete Arctic wipeout and Manhattan under water by now was a little off..but the glitch has been fixed….stay tuned for the next movie…its a comin…Run for the Hills!…or get back into the Paris climate treaty to fix this mess…..
5 months ago

For starters, that cooling and ice age theory our science teachers talked about in the late 70s was never a 97% majority opinion.  It wasn’t even a 50% opinion, just speculation with some data to support it.  As for more snow.. and more rain.. and more heavy storms, there is more moisture available in the atmosphere to be dumped on us when it’s not frozen at the poles anymore..  We’ll have more intense rain and more intense snow for the next 50 years, then shifting from more snow to less snow ane even more rain rain I guess. 
Enjoy it while it lasts.  I plan to.  It’s really that simple, but more complex analsys from more qualified experts below..  Not the article itself but more in the references cited in it.

 

Why Global Warming Can Mean Harsher Winter Weather

5 months ago

jimmy wrote:

I am guessing that there is no snow skiing in Africa at the moment?

When my one of my big investments in carbon futures, aged scotch whisky or pork bellies comes through I think I’ll take a couple dozen of my closest friends on just such a trip, six continents in one season. 

let’s do a little searching over lunch…. in South Africa both Tiffindell and Afriski resorts are open, so that’s one continent.

 

5 months ago
How Important Is “Scientific Consensus” in Climate Research? In the case of global warming, it is nearly worthless. The climate system is so complex that the vast majority of climate scientists — usually experts in variety of specialized fields — assume there are more knowledgeable scientists, and they are just supporting the opinions of their colleagues. And among that small group of most knowledgeable experts, there is a considerable element of groupthink, herd mentality, peer pressure, political pressure, support of certain energy policies, and desire to Save the Earth — whether it needs to be saved or not. (Dr. Roy Spencer…(Nasa employee)
5 months ago

fishnski wrote:

How Important Is “Scientific Consensus” in Climate Research? In the case of global warming, it is nearly worthless. The climate system is so complex that the vast majority of climate scientists — usually experts in variety of specialized fields — assume there are more knowledgeable scientists, and they are just supporting the opinions of their colleagues. And among that small group of most knowledgeable experts, there is a considerable element of groupthink, herd mentality, peer pressure, political pressure, support of certain energy policies, and desire to Save the Earth — whether it needs to be saved or not. (Dr. Roy Spencer…(Nasa employee)

And their models are pretty damned spot on, even with the so called “pause” the projections made 30 years ago are right on track, and the increasing rate is accelerating just as predited globally.

5 months ago

5 months ago


Experts claimed the Arctic Ice would be gone 5 years ago…..Yeh…its felt a little heat but is holding up allright…is the slightly increased temps  Natural or Man made?…how much of it is man made and would you have wanted to have forked over the Gazillion  Bucks Obama wanted to try to fix it?…with most of that money going overseas to other countries who would cheat and steal it?….The US has done a tremendous job cleaning up our enviroment….we are really running clean now….

5 months ago

fishnski wrote:

….where you been Camp?….. 

Funny, I just thought I’d check in to see if there’s anything fresh i can argue about today. Been biking and hiking and biking since the locals shut down and seein’ as i’m gettin’ all hot and sweaty, i was hopin’ you’d have some cold wx to throw on me. I’m with ya Fish. These other dudes on here with their science links an shit don’t have nuthin on you. #MakeSummersColdAgain

4 months ago

fishnski wrote:
Experts claimed the Arctic Ice would be gone 5 years ago…..Yeh…its felt a little heat but is holding up allright…is the slightly increased temps  Natural or Man made?…how much of it is man made and would you have wanted to have forked over the Gazillion  Bucks Obama wanted to try to fix it?…with most of that money going overseas to other countries who would cheat and steal it?….The US has done a tremendous job cleaning up our enviroment….we are really running clean now….

AHEM -  http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40461726

4 months ago

Crush wrote:

 

AHEM -  http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40461726

Dr Degrasse Tyson commented on that this week.  Neil said..”If we can turn Mars in to Earth, why can’t we just turn Earth in to Earth again??”

4 months ago

fishnski wrote:

https://youtu.be/bSBNqNriDSg

wote a  lot about my agenda and all I have been doing as much damage as I can as a Turmp  resistor - then cooled it off. Save it for anoher day. 

 

E—

4 months ago

YouTube Posts from the partisan brain dead hate mongers. Real scientific.

 

 

4 months ago

Latest Searise news…..it was reported the other day that due to Searise a mile of the Cape hatteras Island has gone under water….
Wait a minute….sorry folks…got that wrong….a new Mile long Island has just formed off of Cape point Hatteras?….im Confused…

4 months ago

fishnski wrote:

Latest Searise news…..it was reported the other day that due to Searise a mile of the Cape hatteras Island has gone under water….
Wait a minute….sorry folks…got that wrong….a new Mile long Island has just formed off of Cape point Hatteras?….im Confused…

I know right?

And f** those peeps who say it’s just a natural sandbar or shoaling. And just like that Tangier Island story, like the big man said, this Hatteras island will probably be there for hundreds more years.

4 months ago
The Island formed..OFF of Cape point..Ocean side…yeh…Sand bars have been drifting here and there forever but I could see the Headlines now if a mile of Island sunk….It sure wouldnt be about natural shifting sandbars!….
4 months ago

fishnski wrote:

The Island formed..OFF of Cape point..Ocean side…yeh…Sand bars have been drifting here and there forever but I could see the Headlines now if a mile of Island sunk….It sure wouldnt be about natural shifting sandbars!….

I know its oceanside, i’ve been reading about this too and am familiar with Hatteras and spend a lot of time at the top end of that frame. Another big issue with Hatteras is that the inlets have been shoaling up and one inlet in particular has become challenging and closed at some times to deeper draft boats. How can there be shallower inlets in an era of sea level rise, right? It’s like, how can Tahoe have got so much snow when the earth is heating up. And my stoopid local wx man saying it’s going to be 70% showers today and it’s sunny outside my window. Pfft, scientists. Stephen Hawking, wth does he know?

4 months ago
4 months ago

JimK wrote:

Squaw runs lifts on 4th of July for only 4th time in history:

What more proof could there be that warming is a hoax?

This looks great, I skied almost every weekend this season on less that that

4 months ago

and at Bachelor

4 months ago

Bigger rain and snow (when cold enough) totals were predicted for this period by the climatologists.  I’ll take it as long as the rain snow line remains within 3 hours of my house.

 

Let’s see here, millions of miles of coastline are lost every year at incrasing rates but it’s all OK because there’s ONE pretty neat new sandbar?  Got it.  I feel much better now hahaha.. meanwhile Mar-A-Lago is flooding more and more often hahahaha

4 months ago
Show me proof of miles and miles of missing shoreline..then tell me where the searise is coming from and also prove to me/Us that its not just normal erosion or that the land is actually sinking which is happening all over….. BTW…most of the searise for us is supposed to come from a melting Greenland…. Greenland just set the record for coldest July temperature ever reported in the Northern Hemisphere at -33C.
4 months ago

It amazes me how a scientific issue has become an ideological issue. The US Geological survey has been monitoring sea level rise for many decades. The actual results indicates that there has been a rise of about 6 inches. I know you won’t check this out since it may pop the ideological bubble you live in, but below is a link to the nearly 200 scientific organizations that endorse the idea that humans have had an effect on our climate. The geeky scientists may not be as charming as the marketing whizzes that the American Petroleum Insitute has hired to put doubts in the minds of partisans like you, but they have dedicated their lives to studying this issue and the scientific results are out there. You can’t deny the facts. You can question what we should do about it, yes absolutely. Anybody who thinks we can burn hundreds of millions of years worth of carbon based fossil fuels in a little over a hundred years with no effects what so ever doesn’t understand physics, thermodynamics and is generally a brain dead, poorly informed, ideologically influenced cabbage head who doesn’t have the common sense that God gave geese. Whethrer or not that the coldest temperature in July ever record just happened or they are skiing in July in Lake Tahoe has absolutely nothing to do with climate change. Weather happens and it will continue to happen.

Fishnski - every year, like the return of the lightning bugs, you have to get your soap box out to profess your Trumpian ideals on a site where skiing is suppose to be subject matter. The fishing is good….why not trade the self righteous soap box for a fishing rod and give us a a break from this contentious subject.

https://www.opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php

 

 

 

4 months ago
SS, Your post lost its credibility as soon as you referenced a .gov website.
4 months ago

SCWVA wrote:

SS, Your post lost its credibility as soon as you referenced a .gov website.

In all seriousness, how is that  ?  I worked for 9 years in a NIH science lab with a nobel laureate and a winner of the american chemical society gold medal.  We worked in a peer reviewed section that had to prove worth every two years.  I worked my ass off wiith a lot of dedicated people and it was a great experience.  So how did you reach that conlusion?   Enough of this science hate.

4 months ago
The C02 effect on climate is not a scientific done deal and is being questioned big time lately…Scientist that have been living high on the GW Hog of course would not question it… C02 has obviously been great for Canaan Valley…its so green and lush right now and I dont think it even got to 70 today…C02 is really good for our planet…ive lived on the water most of my life and dont see any searise…just hear about it…. Btw..whats your carbon footprint Mr Smith?…be Honest…and what amount of money and fossil fuel luxeries are you willing to give up to fix this mess we have been hearing about for over 30 years now?
4 months ago

refreshed my learnings and im gathering that we have 400 parts per million of co2 in our atmosphere atm…we have had as much and probably more than the 4400ppm estimated during the last ice age….also from what I gather after 20 to 30ppm co2 is a nothing burger…its allready nearly maxed out in its warming at that point…..so…enjoy the green green grass of home!…..also..
remember SS..everytime you explode so angrilly in response to anything you are standing on your own soapbox…but I still enjoy your posts here  and on any thread so keep em coming!

PS….double blanket morning here in the land of Canaan….53 this morn….

4 months ago

https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitics/videos/1603422099689274/

4 months ago

SCWVA wrote:

SS, Your post lost its credibility as soon as you referenced a .gov website.

 

If you don’t trust most media outlets, you don’t trust the overwhelming majority of the scientific community, you don’t trust government funded research, expecially NASA who put men on the moon in the 60s and just landed a space ship on a freakin comet millions of miles from here travening at an amazing rate of speed… If you can’t trust those sources, it’s not sources you have  problem believing, it’s FACTS which don’t align with what you’d prefer to believe that you have a problem accepting.

4 months ago

Crigldart - BINGO! These folks don’t “believe” so they shoot the messenger. In this case, scientists who have spent their life researching this subject. I would like to know how these scientist will benefit from their research? As opposed to the oil and coal lobby who repeat billions in profits. But we trust them? That said, we are completely dependent on these sources of energy and will be until we suck it all out of the ground or it get’s too scarce and too expensive for most regular folks to be able to afford it. At that point, all the dummies won’t have a choice. I hope this situation comes after I am 6 feet under. Quite frankly, I think we all hope these climate predictions are wrong. Debate is fine But denigratinging scientists because you don’t ‘believe’ I think is incomprehensible.

4 months ago

fishnski wrote:

The C02 effect on climate is… Btw..whats your carbon footprint Mr Smith?…be Honest…and what amount of money and fossil fuel luxeries are you willing to give up to fix this mess we have been hearing about for over 30 years now?

I agree with you. I live out in the country so I am totally dependent on my internal combustion automobile. Now fuel usage was one of my main criteria when we purchased our cars. However, I would say my foot print is perhaps average. I do heat my house with wood, and a heat pump. I don’t drive a full size pick up or SUV.  But I am a contributor to the problem. And that’s why I always say you can debate the solution to this problem. It could be very costly and impactful. Based on The world’s oil reserves and how fast we’re using them, I think at some point we’ll be forced into alternative solutions. Thus the problem will tend to solve itself, at least partially. I am an engineer, energy is critical to every problem we analyze and solve. Energy cannot be invented, only transferred to one form to another. If we can get energy economically from a source that does not pollute or impact the atmosphere, how can that be a bad thing? But to pretend that somehow human activity has no effect on our climate is just not factual. That’s the issue that drives me crazy. And my posts are supposed to sarcastic, not angry. 😉

4 months ago

Im not seriously concerned and think its cool that you burn wood SS but just for kicks and giggles here is a response….

First off …burning wood that lives off of C02 is not good for the inviro….personaly ive planted hundreds of trees…also …
chemicals are produced when wood is burnt, including one of the most potent greenhouse gases, nitrogen dioxide; although the amounts may be small (200 g of CO2 equivalent per kg of wood burnt), the gas is 300 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and lasts 120 years in the atmos….

4 months ago

Do we have to go through this *every* *single* *year*?  Since this topic inevitably leads to a battle, please keep the climate change discussions and other politicized topics off of DCSki.  This is not the place for that.

4 months ago

I think everybody has been very good this time around…(wellll..one of us might of got a little grumpy..) great thread for a slow summer….but im only going to post real time factual unbiased  state of the climate reports from now on…starting this fall….im out till then…enjoy…and thx for some good posts uall…been fun!

4 months ago

Oh fish, this was fun, skiing on the fourth of july, brain dead cabbage heads, like a dead head only smells funny.

Anyways speaking of dead cabbage heads, how do you think they got dead?

Skiing without a helment, that’s how. 

4 months ago

This

“Fishnski - every year, like the return of the lightning bugs, ……………………….”

was pretty funny too; maybe more like buzzards return to Hinkley

 

4 months ago

Cabbage head was what my Polish grandmother called someone who she believed had no common sense only she used the Polish version - capusciana glowa. 

However, the important news is that Mr. Fishnski has admitted that their is a cause for climate change….my wood stove. Along with poisoned dying children and the cause of frog deformities, it seems my wood stove is pure evil. And I thought I was just saving a few bucks on my heating bill! 

4 months ago

Capa tosta, same thing in Italian. So you are using a two stroke stihl farmboss to clear cut the mid-Atlantic rain forest just to keep your house warm?? 

Shame

4 months ago

Ah, Lightning Bug, fireflys, they are actually beatles not flys but never the less, the ones from California are not very bright, in fact they don’t light up at all. 

4 months ago

I had to delete mypost on Fireflies…too offensive to firefly lovers….

4 months ago

Didn’t see a single June bug this year.  Five years ago they completely covered the pool a couple nights.  As for individual footprint..  Today I finally got around to addingn insulation, 24” in the attic of our 60 something year old house.  There was ZERO up there before today.  Put in new windows about 10 years ago.  Attic insulation ought to make a HUGE dent on our cooling and heating energy expenses and footprint.

4 months ago

Nice zero to 24 in an afternoon. 

What happened to your Beatles?

4 months ago

jimmy wrote:

Nice zero to 24 in an afternoon. 

What happened to your Beatles?

Speaking of Beatles… Put some of these out a few days ago. Already full of a bunch ornery Japanese Beatles at this point. 

“Use of the Japanese beetle’s natural sex attractant for trapping is an ideal method to aid in the control of the insect through its own natural biology.”   

It’s basically a huge bag of smut in my back yard. Hope the cops don’t fine it…

3 months ago

Scott wrote:

Do we have to go through this *every* *single* *year*?  Since this topic inevitably leads to a battle, please keep the climate change discussions and other politicized topics off of DCSki.  This is not the place for that.

ya man! the voice of reason- oh heh it is your site geez. I think you should kick us *all* off . I can’t, in restospect, believe how we have all (except you my dear moderator) have become *** **** and indeed we have. No more for me.

I’m out - we don’t want this anymore - goodbye and thanks for all the fish.

 

M and E

3 months ago

Crush,

Don’t go!!!

By the way, did you move from Park City?

MorganB

aka The Colonel

3 months ago

What an unbelievably rude reply.  It is my site — I’m the one pouring my time and money into it, and it’s called DCSki, not DC-Let’s-Endlessly-Debate-About-Climate-Change-Thus-Driving-Away-People-Who-Come-Here-To-Escape-Politics-And-Talk-About-Skiing.com.

But I’m the bad guy.  Thank you for that nice feedback, and for using language fitting for the family audience of DCSki (language that I edited to change to *’s.). There are children that read this site, Crush.

Crush wrote:

Scott wrote:

Do we have to go through this *every* *single* *year*?  Since this topic inevitably leads to a battle, please keep the climate change discussions and other politicized topics off of DCSki.  This is not the place for that.

ya man! the voice of reason- oh heh it is your site geez. I think you should kick us *all* off . I can’t, in restospect, believe how we have all (except you my dear moderator) have become *** **** and indeed we have. No more for me.

I’m out - we don’t want this anymore - goodbye and thanks for all the fish.

 

M and E

 

3 months ago

Scott wrote:

What an unbelievably rude reply.  It is my site — I’m the one pouring my time and money into it, and it’s called DCSki, not DC-Let’s-Endlessly-Debate-About-Climate-Change-Thus-Driving-Away-People-Who-Come-Here-To-Escape-Politics-And-Talk-About-Skiing.com.

But I’m the bad guy.  Thank you for that nice feedback, and for using language fitting for the family audience of DCSki (language that I edited to change to *’s.). There are children that read this site, Crush.

Oy - i am not sure why my post to you got spun 180 degrees - you are the *hero* here and we are the dumb a$$e$ and me included. Mea maxima cupla. Scott you were and  never will be a bad guy - only a good guy to me.  i confess my rather cryptic and cynical way of writing often backfires but when i say ” … voice of reason …” i truly mean it. iI’ll put it down to too much reading of Shaw and  Emil Cioran and of course Douglas Adams with booze as a catylist. You are pretty sharp in a literary fashion i am suprised that you never caught my self deprication where i never use a capial “I” when i write about myself . From Major Barbara …  “He knows nothing; and he thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career.”

3 months ago
Crush the politician!…Sobers up an fires of a fast one!… I just dont understand why its such a big deal that a thread that probably interests a ton of folks has to be silenced by a small minority that has other threads to read..they are not forced to read it…they can turn the channel…This is DCSKI…not Hodunk Bible belt Stepford Wivesville….This site could be a huge draw for everything DC to go along with the Nordic Scene….I think its time for Dcski to grow up and get real…but u r right Bossman Scott..ur site that you have busted your butt on and that should and is respected and appreciated but please dont be too hard on some of us that bend the rules at times…we b only human….and thats what humans do..otherwise we would all be stuck in a rut…dont like that..we must evolve…
3 months ago
The record low on this date for Mt Washington,Nh summit is 33 back in 1953..its 35 right now at 2:08pm….Snow tonite?…
3 months ago

Record high today for St. Louis- 108 degrees. Previous record was 107 set in 1901. No snow for St. Louie today.

3 months ago

Wow…that is Sizzling…dont want to know what the heat index was!….St Louie BBQ without the charcoal…,,,
. One interesting tidbit I just found out was that in the last 30 days we have had 638 record highs in the US but 1124 record low highs…
Also I read a tweet where a weatherman from New England was worried that the cool pattern they are in might fizzle out by Dec when the snow lovers need it…hope not but that just goes to show how important timing is for a good or bad month for snow n cold  and that goes for the season as well…

3 months ago

Well it sure fizzled out last winter when I visited. 60’s and rain followed by a brief snow shower then freezing temperatures. The worst ‘velcro’ snow I have ever skied on. Then it all froze. They groomed it but as it got skied off, all of the boiler plate below created by the rainy freeze/thaw weather of last winter was exposed. I have second thoughts about returning to New England unless it is spur of the moment to coincide with some decent winter weather. After 3 lousy winters, we’re due for a decent winter here in the East. And as the fat lady once said, “Timing is everything”.

3 months ago

snowsmith wrote:

Well it sure fizzled out last winter when I visited. 60’s and rain followed by a brief snow shower then freezing temperatures. The worst ‘velcro’ snow I have ever skied on. Then it all froze. They groomed it but as it got skied off, all of the boiler plate below created by the rainy freeze/thaw weather of last winter was exposed. I have second thoughts about returning to New England unless it is spur of the moment to coincide with some decent winter weather. After 3 lousy winters, we’re due for a decent winter here in the East. And as the fat lady once said, “Timing is everything”.

We got lucky last season with a 3 day trip to Gore we got there just before Winter Storm Stella, STELLAAAAAA!!

3 months ago

Warmer oceans facilitate bigger precipitation events, both rain and snow.  Folks well above the snow lines are enjoying the benefits as long as they remain above the rain/slow lines..  Folks below it are.. below it 

3 months ago

my beach surf temp is 82….it was 80 and 79 1 to 2 weeks ago….its been hot here but the ocean is right at the average temp for this time of year….(source NWS ),,,ave is 82 but goes up to 83 beginning of Aug….4 days away…air temp 86..surf temp 82…SWEET!

3 months ago

jimmy wrote:

snowsmith wrote:

Well it sure fizzled out last winter when I visited. 60’s and rain followed by a brief snow shower then freezing temperatures. The worst ‘velcro’ snow I have ever skied on. Then it all froze. They groomed it but as it got skied off, all of the boiler plate below created by the rainy freeze/thaw weather of last winter was exposed. I have second thoughts about returning to New England unless it is spur of the moment to coincide with some decent winter weather. After 3 lousy winters, we’re due for a decent winter here in the East. And as the fat lady once said, “Timing is everything”.

We got lucky last season with a 3 day trip to Gore we got there just before Winter Storm Stella, STELLAAAAAA!!

wow….whiteout!….(am I the only one that cant see the pic?)

3 months ago

fishnski wrote:

my beach surf temp is 82….it was 80 and 79 1 to 2 weeks ago….its been hot here but the ocean is right at the average temp for this time of year….(source NWS ),,,ave is 82 but goes up to 83 beginning of Aug….4 days away…air temp 86..surf temp 82…SWEET!

Average ocean temps are a degree higher than they were a few decades ago right?  I remember surfing in a wetsuit until mid June off Long Island in the early 1980s.  Down here in NC I don’t usually need one after May.  One degree makes a difference surfing but not as much as it makes when a hurricane is forming or fizzling out.

3 months ago

Anytime you get any offshore winds in Nags Head the water temps can drop by as much as 10-15 degrees in one day due to upwelling.  It can go from 75 to 60 and you are gonna need a wetsuit at 60.    

3 months ago

snapdragon wrote:

Anytime you get any offshore winds in Nags Head the water temps can drop by as much as 10-15 degrees in one day due to upwelling.  It can go from 75 to 60 and you are gonna need a wetsuit at 60.    

I never made it that far north since moving to NC.  Kure has been my favorite place to bring a board.  Wrightsville’s OK in the off season, but June-August I avoid that place.

 

I’d love to rent a house in Corolla for a few days sometime.  Haven’t surfed on almost a decade, but will try it again now that the kids are old enough and strong enough swimmers that I no longer have to supervise their every minute out there..  Couple years ago I had to go get my son out of a rip current that was taking him out on his boogie board.  Just handed some stranger on the beach my phone and huffed it out there and paddled both of us back diagonally.  Guy with my phone said “nice save” when he handed me my phone back.

3 months ago

snapdragon wrote:

Anytime you get any offshore winds in Nags Head the water temps can drop by as much as 10-15 degrees in one day due to upwelling.  It can go from 75 to 60 and you are gonna need a wetsuit at 60.    

Ive seen that many times over the years up there but down here in the SE NC Banks we dont get that `because of the prevaling summer winds that are SW usually which works for a NE shoreline like Nagshead….

you would think “from what we “know” that the Artic temps would be way above ave but they have been running below ave since early summer…lets hope it keeps up…im sure uall are with me on that!….`..BTW…winter temps can have huge variables..(normal)

3 months ago

3 months ago

yeh…start the obs in 1992 and yes,,,we are flaming out!

3 months ago

^^^US average highs only?  Cherry pick much??

And looking at Global Averages pre and post adjustment for mercury to digital..

 


 

Link to source

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/feb/08/no-climate-conspiracy-noaa-temperature-adjustments-bring-data-closer-to-pristine

3 months ago

That graph has that suspicious hockey stick look to it that has been debunked…Why are the US temps not showing the extremes in world temps?
`
the above was put out by J Hansen who is the godfather and leader of the GW ‘ers…
something just doesnt smell right with the world temps…first off there are huge areas that have no monitoring stations…while the US has a great amount of decent info…although even our temps have been fuzzied up by heat islands and asphalt ect….

.but if it were correct and my ave high temps were correct I wonder what that means?….bet there could be all kinds of theories as to why the highs are trending down but the mean temps are rising.( I posted earlier where we have had more than twice as many record low highs this summer than record highs)..could be some sort of lag effect and the warming has peaked?…dunno..im just an optimist and maybe my bullheadness is Clouding up my thinking…hmmmmm…clouds….

Anyhoot…back to reality….tis the time of the year to watch the tropics!….I had fun with Mathew last year down here in the Cape Fear…


3 months ago

Doctor Hansen testimony to Congress:

Hansen was invited to testify before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 23, 1988.[72] Hansen testified that “Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming…It is already happening now”[51] and “The greenhouse effect has been detected and it is changing our climate now…We already reached the point where the greenhouse effect is important.”[73] Hansen said that NASA was 99% confident that the warming was caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and not a random fluctuation.[51][

3 months ago
The price of Natural Gas has tanked this year due to cool temps…. Nat gas falls another 5% as new forecasts say below normal temps could persist
3 months ago
I just watched a Nat Geo special about an ice breaker that just traversed the NW passage thru the Southern Arctic in record time which proves Global Warming……first of all a man named R Amendsen did the trip in a wooden boat back in 1903 which NASA says was the 10th coldest winter….. This Ice breaker had state of the Art equipment and a reinforced steel bow….make your own judgement…
3 months ago

Geeze….the Great weather news and state of the climate are crisscrossing each other and dodo brain me keeps posting on wrong thread…they both have the same color!!..
long story short…State of the Climate is doing well……

3 months ago

fishnski wrote:

Geeze….the Great weather news and state of the climate are crisscrossing each other and dodo brain me keeps posting on wrong thread…they both have the same color!!..
long story short…State of the Climate is doing well……

Based on 1981-2010 data.. with a third of that being the so called “pause”?  Mmkay hahahaha!  We’ve rebounded from that “pause” and are back in line with the models including the hockey stick.  Let’s see that model rerun to include data from 1981 through 2016 mmmkay??

3 months ago

This is a fact based climate thread without a need for argument..since its an innocent factual state of the present and future fcasts… we do not discuss the past here.(unless its a great weather and ski story)..if you feel the need to discuss GW then I would suggest meeting some buddies at the latest Al Gore movie…..Mmkay?…

3 months ago

fishnski wrote:

This is a fact based climate thread without a need for argument..since its an innocent factual state of the present and future fcasts… we do not discuss the past here.(unless its a great weather and ski story)..if you feel the need to discuss GW then I would suggest meeting some buddies at the latest Al Gore movie…..Mmkay?…

Mkkay then don’t add stuff like this,,,

“long story short…State of the Climate is doing well……”  Especially from cherry picked HISTORICAL, decades old data again..

3 months ago

Im just messin with ya CDart..just having fun…I like to have a good argument but im just trying to keep the peace here so Scott doesnt get the sweats….
Plus you are looking at my image wrong….its a fcast map for August 15th showing the 2m temp anomoly in North America which shows cooler than normal temps across a huge area including the Arctic where we are at a critical melt stage….im always rooting the Arctic on arn’t you?…anyhoot I stand by my statement that the State of the Climate is fine for now and at least for the next week or so…in north America.

PS..there are a couple of storms that are going to dump a ton of Snow on the Arctic ice that is left up there during the next 10 days and the Arctic temp at and above 80 north just hit the freezing level again after a long summer which is a little early so im keeping hope alive that we can see a good rebound in the ice extent this Sept..it is the cold breeding ground for us down here!
 

2 months ago


Not too shabby ……… We have just dealt with Harvey and now we have Irma coming in strong Atm…with Jose maybe on her heels..lets hope they veer out to sea…at least not hit the Gulf coast! Better signs for a colder Snowier winter for us here in the East…keep ur Skiis Crossed!!!
 

2 months ago

Crazy mean looking Hurricane Irma out there…5 or 10 mph more sustained winds and she could equal the record set by Allen in 1980 ?…!!…feeding on that warm water…saw a dive report from a reef out in the keys and they reported 87….generally its been going over mid 80’s water….it looks like it will at least match the record for an Atlantic basin Storm..(recorded of course…huge storms back in the day that were not recorded  but talked about)
Love to be able to get an idea how much heat it is transfering out to space..hope alot for us snowbirds!..

The arctic looks like it has stopped melting 12/14 days before average date…will have to see if that holds but the Arctic temp above 80 north has been running below to average so it looks good…

back to the weather models……
out of the 3 main ones used the most respected Euro just split the uprights between the GFS and the CMC runs scraping Irma along the cuban coast helping to slow it a little but then curving it north across Key west (more warm water ) and then slamming into the Naples,Fl area and then splitting Fl right up the middle and into Georgia….the GFS slams Key Largo area into Miami and then back over the ocean and up the east side till it hits the Savanah Ga area…Cmc takes it just west of main Fl and then hits the panhandle somewhere..maybe appalachia bay, Fl,..(dont mess up all that good seafood..big crabs oysters ect..!)…

there is no cat 6 but this storm is every bit of that right now…hope Cuba can slow it down and then somehow take the best path of least destruction!!!….The state of the climate is Humming!

2 months ago
Irma becomes only the fifth Atlantic basin hurricane with a peak wind speed of 160 kt (185mph ) or higher. The others are Allen (1980..190mph), the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).
2 months ago
I like to hate on the Euro model as ive posted before..everyone bows at its alter and has gotten some of these hypster facebook mets in trouble while predicting East Coast Snow storms….The Gfs..American model at 1st had Irma making a bline to the Capefear of Nc then shifted down to Fl but as of yesterday it shifted the track back along the east side of Fl and hitting somewhere between Ga and the Carolinas…the Euro has played Follow the leader and is copying the GFS…The Nat Hurricane center just updated thier path and it shows this new track…we shall see but MAMGA!….Put the bread and milk back west side Fl?
2 months ago

Back to back 500 year storms still isn’t necessarily “climate”.  We shall see if it does actually become more than two data points and a trend in the coming years. 

2 months ago

I wish I could find it but there was a split screen image posted somewhere that showed an identical shot of three hurricanes that were spinning at the same time in the Same places on different years..it was really cool..thinking the same setup as today was from back in 1989?…dunno..looked hard for it..oh well he is a shot from the other day that would have matched the other image…( but with different hurricane names…was one named igor?…scratching my head..)

2 months ago

crgildart wrote:

Back to back 500 year storms still isn’t necessarily “climate”.  We shall see if it does actually become more than two data points and a trend in the coming years. 

Harvey wasn’t a 500 year hurricane it was called a 500 year flood after it stalled over Tx but we dont have 500 years of records …and Irma isn’t a 500 year storm either..could be close to  one but we cant be sure…Irma never did get up to 190mph to match Allen did she?…she topped out at 185 I think….could break all records for dollar amount losses if she splits up Fl the way the latest track looks…
I lived thru the 500 year flood of Floyd and the 500 year blizzard  occuring in the same year and my 1st year living in NC….
Loving the WX we are having now here in NC…Canaan is getting some weather now that would be lake effect in a month…

2 months ago

fishnski wrote:

crgildart wrote:

Back to back 500 year storms still isn’t necessarily “climate”.  We shall see if it does actually become more than two data points and a trend in the coming years. 

Harvey wasn’t a 500 year hurricane it was called a 500 year flood after it stalled over Tx but we dont have 500 years of records …and Irma isn’t a 500 year storm either..could be close to  one but we cant be sure…Irma never did get up to 190mph to match Allen did she?…she topped out at 185 I think….could break all records for dollar amount losses if she splits up Fl the way the latest track looks…
I lived thru the 500 year flood of Floyd and the 500 year blizzard  occuring in the same year and my 1st year living in NC….
Loving the WX we are having now here in NC…Canaan is getting some weather now that would be lake effect in a month…

“500 year storm” includes 500 year flood (AKA rain), 500 year hurricane, 500 year hail, etc.. Imra now has the record for longest to maintain Cat 5 in recorded history.  Yes, we can’t be sure back more than 200 years but odds and data support that categorization for both as “500 year storms”.   That blizzard of 2,000 was awesome here.  Wish we could get one every year but would pass on the summer versions.. 

2 months ago

Look, we have three guys from the old north state talking climate on dcski.  

About our snowicane in 2000, that was indeed great, lots of neighborhood skiing.  The great thing was it stayed cold for two weeks.  Then we had another big snow forecast but the storm stayed off the coast and all we got was gray skies.  The national media was here expecting another stupid southerners snow disaster that did not happen.  

Harvey was interesting.  The gulf surface stayed above 73F all winter, abnormally warm, and was still 4F above normal which provided the fuel.  Then it got stalled.  And then you have low lying Houston with a gazillion acres of concrete just waiting for runoff.  50” of rain is crazy.  With Fran we only got 10”, in one night, and that was too much.  Floyd dropped 20” on ENC, max 24” on Southport, and you remember what that did.  

 

2 months ago
There was a Storm a week or 2 right b4 Floyd which was the setup for Floyd being the 500 year flood…and it was a doozy…I can remember making my rounds thru places like Tarheel and seeing washed up appliances way up above the road on hilltops…. Needing to make a delivery into Wilmington,Nc the Nat Guard told me at a check point that I had to take a left and take a route that would add an hour and a half to my trip so I bolted right and left the dudes blaring their whistles in the dust..had to do it..I knew my territory….only had one short bypass around a bridge and made my delivery on time!…got paid by the job!…. Yeh Pagman…stuck in an Apt complex in N Raleigh for well over a week…sledding was awesome with nice hills there…western NC snow plows finally dug us out..wheww…cigs n beer jus intime!!!
2 months ago
Just try to figure out what 200 years of records % wise compared to how long the Earth has been here….thats one of my main issues with folks always jumping the gun to these Conclusions…
2 months ago

fishnski wrote:

Just try to figure out what 200 years of records % wise compared to how long the Earth has been here….thats one of my main issues with folks always jumping the gun to these Conclusions…

You know there is a lot of geo physical evidence, of several types, for weather and climate events and trends.  The ice ages were a long time ago but I feel confident that John Muir described them accurately.  

Meanwhile, this image is from a guy I follow on Twitter for interesting graphs using my favorite software - SAS.  Pretty interesting how rare cat 5 has actually been.

 

 

2 months ago

fishnski wrote:

Just try to figure out what 200 years of records % wise compared to how long the Earth has been here….thats one of my main issues with folks always jumping the gun to these Conclusions…

Well, ya, but most of the outliers even back to the big bang are explained by super volcanoes and asteroid strikes.  The other more recent ones are regional instead of global..

https://www.facebook.com/UNEP/videos/10155688251685712/?hc_ref=ARRspHZjF6RRqPtgLgUOwpuVUKEW9A0MsIpSJ6gAOlXfmWZNoRKJ8T_Qh0h4yDCtLFs&pnref=story

2 months ago
Really sweet seeing the Snow flying out west on the news tonite!….my shoulders are shot from years of sports and hard labor but the healthy surfers are loving life down here in the Carolinas with all the tropical activity lately!…. Im still optimistic for a good winter!!
2 months ago

snow over the weekend on the grand Tetons….
Arctic sea ice much above 5 years ago…no Death Spiral…
other than the Carribean and the Keys destroyed by a massive Hurricane and another Cat 5 named Maria on Irmas Heels…speaking of Heels…whats with these woman?…Winter seems to be forming nicely ATM….no worries…..


one month ago

fishnski wrote:

snow over the weekend on the grand Tetons….( 2 weeks ago )
Arctic sea ice much above 5 years ago…no Death Spiral…
other than the Carribean and the Keys destroyed by a massive Hurricane and another Cat 5 named Maria on Irmas Heels…speaking of Heels…whats with these woman?…Winter seems to be forming nicely ATM….no worries…..

Keep the early cold n snow out west..we dont need early cold snaps here in the East because it usually means a later start to winter…east might get the 1st real cold shot 3 weeks into Oct…
Awesome start to snow cover ..lookin good…..all Systems are GO for a decent Winter….Skiis Crossed!

one month ago

As predicted, snow events will be bigger where the air is cool enough to produce snow.. This is because warmer oceans and warmer air above those bodies of water facilitiate greater evaporation and more robust cloud seeding.  Big snow events also facilitate greater ice extent, just not deeper volume as much.  It’s supposed to get better just above the snow/rain lines before those lines retreat farther and farther towards the poles/higher elevations.  I plan to make the most of it but also vote for policies which might possibly slow down the Co2 emissions causing the greenhouse effects.. and bigger snows for now..

one month ago
C02 warming was maxed out years ago..any added C02 will have very little impact…I posted on this earlier….Sea ice volume is at or above where it was 7 years ago and way above the record low of 2012… Now with Greenland ice mass gain at record levels for last year and this year so far it could be or not be the result of your theory CDart…dunno..just know that things are fine now….actually great!
one month ago

fishnski wrote:

Now with Greenland ice mass gain at record levels for last year and this year so far it could be or not be the result of your theory CDart…dunno..just know that things are fine now….actually great!

Great? Isn’t Greenland suffering massive ice loss and permafrost melting to the point of peat wildfires.

one month ago

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

one month ago

Bonzski wrote:

fishnski wrote:

Now with Greenland ice mass gain at record levels for last year and this year so far it could be or not be the result of your theory CDart…dunno..just know that things are fine now….actually great!

Great? Isn’t Greenland suffering massive ice loss and permafrost melting to the point of peat wildfires.

I read all that stuff that you read  and it all gets debunked…you are reading stuff that is put out by folks with an agenda…

https://realclimatescience.com/2017/10/greenland-ice-growth-ahead-of-last-years-record-pace/

one month ago

one month ago

I think this could be a great setup for T-Giving in the East..specially the Mid Atlantic…We get these early cold snaps all the time just to be let down year after year so im liking this pattern!….If we miss TGiving then its on for XMas and the rest of winter!
This pattern has it Snowing in Denver today but hopefully it shifts east just in time for Gobble do Gee!…
Great Snow cover up north to generate cold for us..way above snow cover thx to CDarts Theory..Arctic Ice growing like crazy…lets all Fget the coming Doom and Gloom and enjoy the Moment!

one month ago

I’ll be a happy camper if we get two Thanksgiving weekends in a row with NC resorts open :-)

one month ago

its looking like we could be swinging to a cooler east with a pattern change…this cool air now is a teaser and it will warm up for a week and then its looking to get busy and im hoping its going to hold into TGiving but thats too far off right now…after the next cold shot around the 25th ..( first snow flakers?..) there should be another one on its heels around the 28th and then closing out October….We went from Summer to Tgiving weather down here in SE NC overnight!…

one month ago

I’d take two weeks of cold mid November over one week of cold next week.. But, always happy to see snow flakes, ALWAYS!

23 days ago

crgildart wrote:

I’d take two weeks of cold mid November over one week of cold next week.. But, always happy to see snow flakes, ALWAYS!

Im with ya Cdart!…we have to have great timing here in the Mid Atlantic….. Cooler shots on schedule..nothing dramatic yet on models that would upset TGiving yet..or Xmas.. 2 good signs for winter…The Ocean in Front of Barrow Ak is freezing over a couple of days b4 the average date from records dating back to 1920 and unoficially since the late 1800’s….and me n the Misses will be migrating south to Fl from NC 2 days earlier as well… These signs are as good as Wooly…worms?….
23 days ago

Favorite things about Thanksgivng weekend..

Watching the Cowboys play Thursday.

Getting a tree on Friday and decking the halls

Skiing a couple hours Saturday with leftover turkey sandwiches for lunch break.

Coming home about the time the Christmas lighs in the house pop on Saturday evening.

22 days ago

Mr Fish, How is her leg healing?

The Colonel

22 days ago
Thx for asking Colonel…im hoping that you are healing yourself…sounds like it per your post on other thread..hope Denis and all the other injured resesrve are getting better!…as far as the Misses..she was progessing Slowwwwlly..but surely but then got a little ahead of herself and slipped on her crutches and tore her Archillis tendon right off her heel..so back to nighty nite and surgery and now back in cast so my Couchups continue..Honey this..Honey that…im beat!…………… Been watching a system coming out of the Gulf and phasing with a cold front as it moves up the East coast Sunday…wow..if this thing could pull in tighter it would be an early season Dumper in the Mid Atlantic high country..close but no cigar…a few flakes to an inch (Gfs model) to maybe 6 inches lets say up in Canaan Hts if you believe the European Model….
22 days ago

I’m always OK with a snow day.. but working from home office prevents me from missing work as long as there is internet available.  Kids are growing, girl may be done but boy is definitely still sprouting up.  Got new snow boots for both kids stashed  but won’t give them until Christmas unless we get that dump sooner.  Ski boots I try to shop ahead.  I’ve got the boots they wore end of last season, both went up a mondo around late February, and two mondos up from those in the closet when they need them.  When they stop growing and want to ski more tham 3-6 days a season I’ll look in to good, pro fitted boots for them.  Right now I’m happy and they’re happy with their own pretty good fit, better than resort rentals.. 

 

Let it SNOW!

21 days ago
Well..the Nam came in late morn and it showed an 8 inch snow for the WV Alpps…Nam kinda likes to exagerate so I blew it off…then this Aft im seeing the Euro model come in and double their earlier 6 inch snowfall fcast…a foot!…lets see how the Gfs counters this eve…Dolly Sods Camping!….or not…
20 days ago

you can see this storm forming south of Cuba as a tropical storm…this image will update so you can follow the progress…Watch the cold front coming down and across and see how it interacts with the tropical system.as it heads north…will it push it off or suck it in and hold it tight as it wrappes up the coast to new England?

20 days ago

fishnski wrote:

Looks like its getting wrapped up into one big system…gonna be an interesting aft/eve up in the Alpps!….

20 days ago

fishnski wrote:

…slipped on her crutches and tore her Archillis tendon right off her heel..

Uggh, sorry to hear

20 days ago

ur a good Man Camp..dont care what cantfishnwishhecouldski says about ya!…..wait a minute..I get it…sorry to hear it wasn’t my archillis?…..Ughhhh…

20 days ago

Wierd seeing snow covered grass at the bottom of the lifts at Silvercreek but none at the top of the Shoe on the cams…anyway..its a start to winter!
 

20 days ago

fishnski wrote:

Wierd seeing snow covered grass at the bottom of the lifts at Silvercreek but none at the top of the Shoe on the cams…anyway..its a start to winter!
 

Im just going to keep talking to myself…got the Carolina Tampa game on in the background…just migrated south from Carolina to Tampa area so this game kinda sucks for me….hope one of them wins!

The temp at Canaan Hts has been below freezing since 9am but Dave Lesher the obs guy up there has only reported rain or drizzle thats because its warmer higher up…grass freezing up with sleet,snow and freezing rain at the bottom of Silvercreek b4 whitegrass showing up at the top of the shoe shows how this works in a little micro type of way…
I did see a little flurry of Snow on the Canaan Cam around 10am but it shut down quick…just part of the dynamics of a big system trying to get together..
Looking at the weather models upper elevation temps they all seemed to gel with a top to bottom below freezing Skew by 4pm…
its almost 4 so im going to keep on peeping at the Cams…while watching Cam Newton rack up some points on Tampa..come on Tampa!..no…win Carolina!..sooo confused..let it snow..let it snow!!!

19 days ago

hellll yehhhh…4pm game on local Tv is Dallas Redskins!….snowing up and down the WV Alpps….everything is all White now!!!

19 days ago

Snowing and blowing at Snowshoe. … not even November. It will all melt but it makes you feel good.

19 days ago

8.5 inches from the storm recorded at 3715’ Canaan Hts…not too shabby for pre Halloween…

19 days ago

Too bad it will all melt very soon. We really don’t want the snow to happen this time of year; we want it to happen in the winter and then stay around. Last winter was one of rain and alot of melting. Hopefully we can reverse the trend of the last 3 sucky years and have a nice winter where it snows and the snow stays around for a while. That would be nice. Unfortunately, NOAA has predicted a warmer than normal winter for our area. I am hoping  they are very wrong.

19 days ago

Snowguns on at Snowshoe. Won’t last but it is fun to see for now.

19 days ago

snowsmith wrote:

… Unfortunately, NOAA has predicted a warmer than normal winter for our area. I am hoping  they are very wrong.

Pffft. Gov’t scientists. What do they know, right.

19 days ago

camp wrote:

snowsmith wrote:

… Unfortunately, NOAA has predicted a warmer than normal winter for our area. I am hoping  they are very wrong.

Pffft. Gov’t scientists. What do they know, right.

Well lets see…they invented the internet, the space program, the atomic bomb, etc….need I go on. Let’s not make scientist the enemy. They are responsible for the quality of our modern life. If anthing, let’s make polititians who question the integrety of scientist, govenment or private, the enemy. Back to the subject……

I am sure that it is very difficult to develop models that predict long term weather. But being a skier, I want a prediction that says the winter will be colder than normal. It would make me feel better. I may look for a woolly bear caterpillar.

19 days ago

snowsmith wrote:

I am sure that it is very difficult to develop models that predict long term weather. ..

This is the most hopeful I found. Equal temps and increased Precip. Of the 4 options in this temp:precip matrix, I call it 2nd best. I’d call lower temp, lower precip 1st best (since more precip usually means rain here). Cold and dry is best for snowmaking and any natural lasts longer in the woods

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

19 days ago

It may all melt before the day is over but it sure looks nice.

 

19 days ago

Especially exciting to see the guns roaring!

19 days ago
Dont pay any attention to Winter Fcasts…there are too many variables in Mama Natures trick bag…one week at a time you cold n Snow addicts…im watching a cold shot around the 8th of Nov…and at that point will look out another week..Govt Weather Scientist predicting a warmer winter?…thats funny as heck since they cant even fcast dependably out past 5 days…also keep in mind that predicting a warm winter for populated cities like DC is apples and Oranges to a place like Canaan Valley,Wv…
18 days ago

The winter predictions by either Government, and I think we should be thankful we have a NOAA, not beat up on them, or by private entities such as (In)Accuweather are generally reasonably predictive of overall weather trends such as NAO, El Nino, etc. The predictions do not cover specific areas such as DC but rather regions. I like Kentucky Weather Center personnally but this guys is not always right either.  But he considers trends, not forecasts, to provide some kind of estimation on what may happen. He knowns all of the models…the Canadian, the European, the GFS, etc and looks to see what the models are good at predicting. Then watches to see if these models begin to converge on a solution. Unfortunately, mathmatical models is all  we humble humans have to predict natural phenomena. We engineers need to use these tools all of the time to predict how our products will perform. And we are usually right, but not always. Whoops…. we forgot to take this factor into consideration. Lesson learned. Actually, I am quite amazed at how good the predictions are sometime.

Interestingly, I recently watched the PBS show Nature that covered a very interesting weather happening that occured I think in 1239 AD in Indonesia ( they finally nailed it down to this location after looking for many years) This HUGE volcanic eruption that occured at that time sent the Earth into a mini ice age for a while since the volcano spewed so much ash into the atmosphere it blocked enough sunlight to majorly chill the planet. The skiing could have been good if they only had invented skis and chair lifts. But many folks froze to death.  That’s what we need… a good eruption!

18 days ago


West Virginia is on the Map!……adding to a very impressive Northern Hemisphere Snow cover….

18 days ago

fishnski wrote:

..thats funny as heck since they cant even fcast dependably out past 5 days…also keep in mind that predicting a warm winter for populated cities like DC is apples and Oranges to a place like Canaan Valley,Wv…

Nailing long term averages pretty far out (decades) is quite a bit easier than nailing exact temps and precipt for exact times more than a week away..

18 days ago

snowsmith wrote:

Interestingly, I recently watched the PBS show Nature that covered a very interesting weather happening that occured I think in 1239 AD in Indonesia ( they finally nailed it down to this location after looking for many years) This HUGE volcanic eruption that occured at that time sent the Earth into a mini ice age for a while since the volcano spewed so much ash into the atmosphere it blocked enough sunlight to majorly chill the planet. The skiing could have been good if they only had invented skis and chair lifts. But many folks froze to death.  That’s what we need… a good eruption!

oh no…careful what you wish for Mr Smith!!…..
 

Yellowstone volcano WARNING: Catastrophic eruption would destroy ALL life on Earth

YELLOWSTONE’S supervolcano could have enough magma to destroy life on Earth in a matter of decades, researchers have warned………

18 days ago

fishnski wrote:

 

 

Yellowstone volcano WARNING: Catastrophic eruption would destroy ALL life on Earth

YELLOWSTONE’S supervolcano could have enough magma to destroy life on Earth in a matter of decades, researchers have warned………

SWEET!  What kinda wax do ya recommend fer dat eh??

9 days ago
Go get ur cold meds..get a flu shot..pick up some cough Syrup…cuz uall got a cold comin on!….getting interesting leading up to TGiving and the Holiday itself….Stay tuned!…and waxed….
8 days ago

8 days ago

 

 

LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED….High Country Snow Party?……10 days out…..

8 days ago

Blue Don posted a pic of weather probs for 15 days out on another thread but that is too far out….I dont like posting stuff like this but to back up the Don here is the GFS 15 day prog…

8 days ago

Mr Fish we must will this storm into reality.  No snow means traveling to my sister in laws for turkey day.

8 days ago
Think positive..u could be going to ur mother n laws!… This is fun but its a long way out…
8 days ago

Blue Don 1982 wrote:

Mr Fish we must will this storm into reality.  No snow means traveling to my sister in laws for turkey day.

LOL

8 days ago

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