lbotta wrote:
Good news indeed but sadly, your old stomping grounds at the shoe will see temps in the 60s all week. Ugh!
I sure hope so.
Colorado needs it. Forecast temps for the next 10 days for Breckenridge show highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s -- not cold enough to blow snow.
That means that Loveland will miss an October opening for the first time in my memory, and that Keystone will miss it's 11/4 openiong date, too. That will be the second straight year for Keystone to miss it's opening date.
A-Basin made it's normal October opening, but warm temps have prevented it from opening more terrain - still just one 600 foot vert blue open - a week and a half after opening.
bob wrote:
I sure hope so.
Colorado needs it. Forecast temps for the next 10 days for Breckenridge show highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s -- not cold enough to blow snow.
That means that Loveland will miss an October opening for the first time in my memory, and that Keystone will miss it's 11/4 openiong date, too. That will be the second straight year for Keystone to miss it's opening date.
A-Basin made it's normal October opening, but warm temps have prevented it from opening more terrain - still just one 600 foot vert blue open - a week and a half after opening.
it isn't true - they are opening on time. The weather thing is a Chinese hoax. Horrible, horrible people. NOAA is a corrupt government instrument whose real three month outlook is certainly on a private email server somewhere. We'are winners; people are already skiing at Apen right now, but the corrupt press is hiding it from the public.
Crush wrote:
it isn't true - they are opening on time. The weather thing is a Chinese hoax. Horrible, horrible people. NOAA is a corrupt government instrument whose real three month outlook is certainly on a private email server somewhere. We'are winners; people are already skiing at Apen right now, but the corrupt press is hiding it from the public.
I guess this satalite shot of how much snow is on the ground is a Trump hoax....
Our Govt is corrupt in places..weather Data has been manipulated ...sorry to tell you..id think a rebel like you would understand that...you are just getting irritable...you will get your fix soon enough...calm down! ...
btw...the blue means there is snow where snow cover doesnt normaly exist at this time of year..
this snow cover will eventually create a very cold winter..depends of which way the winds blow...the latest pattern has cold shots clipping new england and on down to just touching the mid Atlantic...leaving the western areas warmer...el nina type stuff...
latest model run shows a nice cold shot coming around the 12th of nov...still a ways out but could be good for Tgiving......
will have to see how this plays out....
Winter weather forecast from the local Pittsburg weather wiz with snow forecasts down to the inch....making Mid-Atlantic Skiing Great Again, despite the Chinese.
nice vid SnowS...
Im thinking that if we went by the snow fcasts presented that would mean about 145 snow total for Canaan....but that would still be a little below norm...but ill take it!...love the flashback of Winter storm Jonas...that was a fun storm for me...shoveled for 3 days...plowing with my truck..without a plow...just 4 wheel shoving!
bob wrote:
That means that Loveland will miss an October opening for the first time in my memory, and that Keystone will miss it's 11/4 openiong date, too. That will be the second straight year for Keystone to miss it's opening date.
As I predicted a few days ago. .. from the Keystone website a few minutes ago:
"11/1/2016
Due to unseasonably warm weather over the last few weeks, we have made the difficult decision to delay Keystone’s opening day, which was originally scheduled for Friday, Nov. 4. We are dedicated to providing our guests with the best early-season conditions possible and unfortunately Mother Nature has not allowed us to do that in time for our scheduled opening. However, with confidence in our resort’s sophisticated snowmaking system and mountain operations team, and a more favorable weather outlook, particularly during overnight hours, we are targeting Friday, Nov. 11 as the opening day for the 2016-2017 winter season."
I was so sure this would happen that two days ago I cancelled my flight and rent car reservations for 11/3-11/5.
fishnski wrote:
nice vid SnowS...
Im thinking that if we went by the snow fcasts presented that would mean about 145 snow total for Canaan....but that would still be a little below norm...but ill take it!...love the flashback of Winter storm Jonas...that was a fun storm for me...shoveled for 3 days...plowing with my truck..without a plow...just 4 wheel shoving!
145 is just fine if it stays cold. We have had years well above 145 that were just so-so because it would snow, then warm rain a week later, then snow again, and warm rain a few days later, etc etc.
Some dressing for the turkey coming?
Early snows always seem to favor the lake Placid area...the east is in the best zone as long as this pattern holds..its def El Nina like....
The Nov 12th cold shot on my last post 8 days ago still is there. and it shows up as snowfall on the map below..will have to see if we can get followup shots...I think the odds are better than 50/50
lets keep this thread going all winter!!.....it dies as soon as we get bad weather news.......
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!!!!
One way to track weather to see if there is a bullish or bearish sentiment on cold weather coming in is to track the price of Nat Gas.......unfortunately the latest Wx model runs have backed off somewhat on the intensity and longevity of incoming cold shots...Soooo...nat gas price is tanking....
OH well...thought I could post the image of the chart but it is being blocked somehow....so solly...
No good news from Colorado.
Loveland finally opens tomorrow - with the latest opening date in my memory.
Copper has slipped it's opening date to 11/18. Now two weeks later than the initial date.
Keystone has stopped talking about an 11/11 opening date (already delayed from 11/4), and now says it will open when snowmaking allows it to.
The way I see the 10 day forecast shaping up is no natural snow to speak of over the next 10 days. Only one day with evening temps low enough for good snowmaking, and that day is 11/17. Except for 11/17 evening temps are forecast as 14-17 degrees above the normal 15 degrees.
IMO the 11/18 opening dates are in jeopardy, and depending on evening temps after 11/18, Thanksgiving now starts looking a bit risky -- which would be a disaster. I recall an opening something like this about 20 years ago. Keystone had one trail open on Thanksgiving day. I got in one run, and waited an hour for the gondola. I got in my second run and the gondola line was maybe two hours long. I quit Keystone and went over to A-Basin where lift lines were a bit more manageable.
EDIT UPDATE: Keystone is now saying 11/18 to open. Breck is joining the "delay" party. It just announced that it plans to slip it's scheduled 11/11 opening and will open "shortly after Keystone." A-Basin STILL only has one trail open, with maybe a second by the weekend.
3 week snowfall forcast
Snowsmith
How do we get three weeks between Nov 9 and Nov 25?
MorganB
I guess I counted the map boxes and assumed they were days. How about 2+ weeks?
Weekend forecast at Snowshoe - I want to believe it but after last season, I'm scared.
https://www.wunderground.com/us/wv/snowshoe/zmw:26209.1.99999
And for Davis, WV:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:26260.1.99999
(1) I might be up for bootpacking for some turns at whitegrass on Monday...
(2) I will be at the NRAO with my son the weekend of Dec 3-4 for a Scout trip. Might be worth it for us to head up to Snowshoe on Sunday afternoon depending on what they can open by then.
I was just looking at this- drew a 5hour radius around Baltimore for a post-TGiving run. Laurel Highlands and on down, W of the Eastern Divide, all look not bad- up to 6" or so, and then temps staying in the snowmaking regime for most of the week.
Likewise, Catskills on North looking potentially tasty for TGiving. All depends how aggressive they are with their guns...
Any whispers of openings? 7Springs, especially? Not sure how much time they need to cover enough acreage?
The slope has recently been mowed at WG. Should be good skiing with no base. Also, the gas company just mowed/brushhogged the _entire_ pipeline going through the area in the past few weeks which is almost a skiers gift if you ask me!
wgo wrote:
And for Davis, WV:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:26260.1.99999
(1) I might be up for bootpacking for some turns at whitegrass on Monday...
(2) I will be at the NRAO with my son the weekend of Dec 3-4 for a Scout trip. Might be worth it for us to head up to Snowshoe on Sunday afternoon depending on what they can open by then.
skinavy wrote:
Any whispers of openings? 7Springs, especially? Not sure how much time they need to cover enough acreage?
Snowshoe was previously advertising 11/23, although they removed most of the references to that date I suspect they will open on or as close to that date as possible. The last email I got (albeit not from mountain ops) said there were no plans to change opening date at the moment, if Sunday and Monday go as forecast, I think they have a shot at Wednesday
skinavy wrote:
Any whispers of openings? 7Springs, especially? Not sure how much time they need to cover enough acreage?
Typically 7springs needs 3 days below freezing and 1 day for grooming to open. A 11/25 or 11/26 opening seems posible.
Thanks- very much liking the further improved forecast this morning for the Shoe up through Laurel Highlands! And here I was, betting on the Catskills.
I'm buying into the hype ..... just because it's fun.
Figures it's going to snow in Lake Placid this weekend. Driving my NC minivan up with my daughter for a gathering at North Country School. Been up there the last three Thanksgiving weeks and usually ended up driving on snow at least one day.
Have a friend who plans to ski Whiteface over Thanksgiving weekend, so she's happy.
I have north country friends who get their first tracks every year on the whiteface memorial highway. Drive up as far as you can and start hiking. Happy Thanksgiving whatever you do.
An Update from Snowshoe's Facebook page:
OPENING DAY UPDATE: We are excited to see snow and cold return to the forecast for the next week! Our snowmakers will be ready and waiting the second the temperatures drop this weekend. We expect to know better early next week what our official opening day will be. While we’re not completely eliminating the chance we will be ready with limited terrain for our original target opening of Nov. 23rd, we are more realistically turning our attention to the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend, or the weekend immediately after. A healthy dose of natural snow and 90+ hours of cold temperatures suitable for snowmaking would give us what we need to drop the rope with great coverage and conditions.
The long range forecast suggests that winter is almost here, and that once it arrives it will settle in and be a great one for skiing and snowboarding in our mountains.
Regardless of whether the skiing and riding are open for the Thanksgiving holiday, we will have shops and restaurants open, and plenty of family holiday activities in the Village, everything you need for a great get-together.
Stay tuned for more updates early next week, and think SNOW!
Snowing in the Laurels!
Drove back from Myrtle Beach today. Light snow at Winterplace, WV around 1 PM. 6 PM it's snowing steady at the Shoe with major snowmaking occurring.
Snowshoe started with the snowmaking around 12:30 today, which seems earlier than I would have expected. Looked like 7 springs fired up their system around 9-10pm tonight. Looks like there might be some options for thanksgiving skiing. Looking at forecast other than Wednesday and Thursday night both Snowshoe and 7 Springs have good night time temps for snowmaking and non-stop snowmaking through Tuesday AM, so hopefully this weekend will give them a base they can open with and then they can expand with night time snowmaking.
Check out the Dolly Sods Web Cam this morning. The valley *looks* open. Beautiful. All us flatlanders are hoping to see some report of some action up there.
Looking like snow on the way Saturday night in to Sunday morning..
crgildart wrote:
Looking like snow on the way Saturday night in to Sunday morning..
ALAS! Looking like it will be rain instead of snow now.. Probably some snow up top, but rain and ice everywhere else around there :-(
... take a look at 9-11 Dec... some pretty good periods well <32deg at Liberty, WT, RT. Poles crossed for an opening sometime the week after! Certainly by the 17th.
Snowshoe, 7S, West of the divide, looks to have highs only in the 20s that weekend!
skinavy wrote:
... take a look at 9-11 Dec... some pretty good periods well <32deg at Liberty, WT, RT. Poles crossed for an opening sometime the week after! Certainly by the 17th.
Snowshoe, 7S, West of the divide, looks to have highs only in the 20s that weekend!
Im thinking maybe eve nby the weekend for snowtime hills.Im sure roundtop will at least have a hike park like on turkey day.
The forecast is looking good for snowmaking for 7springs
12/7 to 12/10 Highs in the 20s lows in the 10s
12/13 to 12/20 never above freezing!
Hopefully there will be some good natural snow during that stretch too!
whitetail and roundtop have the lights on! hopefully they can get their guns on as well!
Look what these educated elites are pushing now. Tis not the season to see brown and red over the pole
BAH, HUMBUG!!!
GW...boo-hiss!
Yesterday the place I skied has GREAT snow making infrastructure. They were barely 50% open and losing ground fast, bare sports in high traffic areas. They were trying to make snow with temps in the 40s, blowing fog and mist mostly. With more warm temps and rain tomorrow the weekend will likely be a brown Christmas waiting til New Years to get terrain open again. Seems like this happens every other year now instead of once every 5-10 years.
Winter makes a comeback by the 29th of Dec....then put ur super woolies on by the 2nd of Jan....Camp will be hiding underground with Owl Bore plotting thier next move....
BUT...it even gets better.....ck out the 5th of Jan...that could be brutal...be careful what u wish for!
fishnski wrote:
BUT...it even gets better.....ck out the 5th of Jan...that could be brutal...be careful what u wish for!
i was just curious why noaa sez it will be like this - a great depature from what is posted here. as an engineer with and MS and a good backround in fluid dynamics and statistical modeling why is there such a departure from the below?
Crush wrote:
why is there such a departure from the below?
I dunno, good question. I hope either of those pan out. N = usually good. Maybe the 8-14 is just averaged and the blue from the other balances out this week? The GFS maps are temperature - not difference from normal.
The 8 to 14 day map really shows the pattern we are in...the cold cant break into the SEast because of a persistent high pressure ridge....run after run of the wx models show an impressive cold shot looking to swoop down and wallup the east only to get shunted up and back out over NE....same pattern we saw 2.5 months ago and I commented on how at least NE could benefit....
we need that ridge to break down and to get these storms to pass east of us instead of west of us just leaving us the end of storm backside cold wrap... I think odds are that will happen and we could see a good 2nd half to this season...patterns only last so long...but..untill that happens ..
..nah...I wont show you the pic of me n Betterhalfski standing in crystal clear water holding a couple of Coconuts we snatched from a nearby palm down here on the gulf side of FL...just cant do it!
fishnski wrote:
..nah...I wont show you the pic of me n Betterhalfski standing in crystal clear water holding a couple of Coconuts we snatched from a nearby palm down here on the gulf side of FL...just cant do it!
no no no! Where! Show us please!!! I actually realized I miss our boat and being a captain and was thinking alot about there lately - just to send me over the edge ...
Mr. Fish,
I think you are getting your white sand dances mixed up with your snow dances. We are counting on you to quickly fill the Mid-Atlantic mountain skies with white flakes for the sake of all your fellow DCSkiers and the resorts that depend on snow.
Hppy New Year, my DCSki friend!
MorganB
Rat back atya Colonel!.....Variety is the spice of life Crush...cant have all mountains or all Sea....gotta mix it up if u can...im happily stuck in the redneck Triangle...Cape fear coast of NC...West by God Virginia.(WV Alpps.)...gulf coast florida...round and round and round....
Back to the thread....here is what NWS just posted...
"Much colder air can be expected behind the cold front for Thursday night into Friday, creating a decent upslope snow event. If the models continue to show deep moisture with this event, then snow advisories may be needed for the higher elevations of the northern WV mountains."......
Now....im not a Meterologist....Im a snow monitor...I tell u when it will snow....its going to Snow...
AND....they will need to post a snow advisory!
10 inches so far..(WV Alpps)....I have watched news reports from the main stream media that have talked about the huge dump in new england.. they add amounts like 10 inches....big deal!
I hate to upset Camp n crew but the the northern Hemisphere snow coverage is above average....Greenland ice volume is way above aveerage...Greenland is the source of the massive sea level rise that will wipe out Al Bores ocean front multi million buck mansion.....the artic ice is just below ave but growing everyday...almost back within the normal range......
The Arctic ice could be lower because of underwater volcanic activity,,,,
I could go on and on...this is a good news thread so....feel good!
Uggh, our run of fun hits a hopefully temporary bump (if one can believe this govt-funded site run by advanced degreed so-called experts). Hope they're wrong and that wedge of purple/blue over Montana comes crashing our way
Though the 5-day is warm, the 6-10 looks like at least back into good snowmaking temps. It's too early for the January Thaw right.
fishnski wrote:
10 inches so far..(WV Alpps)....I have watched news reports from the main stream media that have talked about the huge dump in new england.. they add amounts like 10 inches....big deal!
I hate to upset Camp n crew but the the northern Hemisphere snow coverage is above average....Greenland ice volume is way above aveerage...Greenland is the source of the massive sea level rise that will wipe out Al Bores ocean front multi million buck mansion.....the artic ice is just below ave but growing everyday...almost back within the normal range......
The Arctic ice could be lower because of underwater volcanic activity,,,,
I could go on and on...this is a good news thread so....feel good!
Jay Peak reporting four day storm total of 33 inches. I skied some of it today. Last I checked, it is still on Vermont. ;)
fishnski wrote:
Way to nail the jackspot JL...Happy New Beer Bud!.... 2.5 billion tax payers money spread across 13 Federal agancies to fund Obamas Cherry Picking will come to an end soon... The 10 days following Jan 4 look to be very cold in the US..after that we could see a Jan thaw...too eary to tell how and if that will play out... No big storms showing for the mid Atlantic...waiting for the Indices to Align.......60 to 70 below in Siberia right now....now that is a bonafide cherrypick but those are Extreme temps (71 below all time coldest temp ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere) no matter how you look at it!
Well, if one week of REALLY cold cold temps can make up for two to three weeks of really warm warm temps (rinse and repeat) I'm good with that. Doesn't seem to be working for the north pole lately. I could care less what the south pole does because that has less inflouence on my ski resort coverage. The fool in the White House has no control over the climate other than deciding how and what information relay from the scientists. Climate will still continue to change regardless of how or if it is reported as such.
Back on topic, I'd really like to go ski tomorrow, but forecast is 40s and solid rain all morning up at over 5,000 feet elevation... again, That isn't unusual at all for January is it??
Places not all that close to the historical rain snow dividing lines aren't going to be all that noticibly impacted by a degree or two difference in average annual temperature. It's the places that are right on that line that will see amplified effects, fewer ski days in particular. ... even with massive additional investments in snow making infrastructure. Folks up in Vermont/New Hampshire/Maine and up above 9,000 feet in the mid rockies or farther north will be fine for a couple more generations... but are definitely benefiting from better snow making infrastructure as well.
Just got back from a morning sesh at the local. Spring Skiing on New Years Day.
Hoping to be back out tomorrow if the sky isn't crying rain. One night of snowmaking after about 6-7 nights of none, and now about 5-6 more of none until it gets cold again. We are just a little better than last season, cuz at least we're open and skiing. The WROD are getting narrower and less white by the day
This generally bodes well for pending NE/Mid-Atl cold, but it hasn't exactly been matching with what normally happens with cold air blocking. Disclaimer: this is from a US govt website.
EDIT: to add "Mt. Washington, NH (6,288 ft.) received 93.6 inches of snow in December, 2016. This is the 2nd highest December snowfall in the station's 68 year record (1948). The highest monthly December snowfall total is 103.7 inches recorded in 1968. Bob Leffler/Fearless Weatherman"
so maybe it's just us on that rain/snow dividing line that was previously mentioned?
camp wrote:
This generally bodes well for pending NE/Mid-Atl cold, but it hasn't exactly been matching with what normally happens with cold air blocking. Disclaimer: this is from a US govt website.
EDIT: to add "Mt. Washington, NH (6,288 ft.) received 93.6 inches of snow in December, 2016. This is the 2nd highest December snowfall in the station's 68 year record (1948). The highest monthly December snowfall total is 103.7 inches recorded in 1968. Bob Leffler/Fearless Weatherman"
so maybe it's just us on that rain/snow dividing line that was previously mentioned?
We're definitely on it. I heard somethere that warmer air holds more moisture so warmer temps that are still below freezing will facilitate bigger snow dumps. So, if that is true, it would be pretty good for a couple years before it turns to all rain. 2010 and 2013 were pretty epic years around here.
Again, I don't think 1-2 or even 3 degrees warmer annually would kill most ski resort friendly regions, only those already right on the edge of viability. It's pretty clear that without the HUGE recent snowmaking advancements many of these resorts that were quite viable through the 70s with only natural snow would not be able to keep the lifts turning these days even though it's only 2 degrees different annually..
camp wrote:
Though the 5-day is warm, the 6-10 looks like at least back into good snowmaking temps. It's too early for the January Thaw right.
the 6 to 10 day usually sets the trend for the further out model runs even though the further out runs say otherwise...
The negative NAO is not enough to offset the negative PNA....just have to wait for the stars to align...
Crgl....there is not an abnormal problem in the Arctic...there was a small hole that opened up which was claimed to be the first time man has seen it by all the biased propogandist media but his has happened a few times before...google the russian sub that surfaced at the north pole years ago....
then to really make me laugh they say that this man made GW event has not happened for millions of years....wow..who was burning fossil fuels back then?..........when you have 2 once in every 30 to 40 year events of snow falling in the Sahara desert in the last month it will drain the cold from the source...that is just natural...
sure..ill admit that we are in a world temp slump but its nothing as large as hyped and as some of ualls hero once said..."what does it matter at this point?"...we cant do anything about it!....a slump doesnt last forever...
in the meantime we should hold hope that the Northern Hemisphere has an above average snow extent and that the Arctic is not dead like they said it would be by 2013...infact quite the opposite....
This is a great wx news thread...all you negative weenies get ur own thread!
Btw Campster..u like to post the disclaimer about the Govt agencies that you get your info from ....
do you ever post info other than govt ( taxpayer) funded sites?......do you work for the Govt?...
I dont blame any scientist/govt worker for playing the game directed by the higher powers to protect thier way of life......
even a dog can understand that.....
crgildart wrotte
We're definitely on it. I heard somethere that warmer air holds more moisture so warmer temps that are still below freezing will facilitate bigger snow dumps. So, if that is true, it would be pretty good for a couple years before it turns to all rain. 2010 and 2013 were pretty epic years around here.
Again, I don't think 1-2 or even 3 degrees warmer annually would kill most ski resort friendly regions, only those already right on the edge of viability. It's pretty clear that without the HUGE recent snowmaking advancements many of these resorts that were quite viable through the 70s with only natural snow would not be able to keep the lifts turning these days even though it's only 2 degrees different annually..
It wont turn to rain budro...we are having maybe a 1 degree temp rise and that has been capped....we cant help but to have a heat Island effect from the big cities.and all the asphalt layed down..cant fix that unless you fix everyone!...plus we are at or below the Mason Dixon line with low elevation...we are lucky to have ski areas east of the western front Highlands anyway....if we lost those it wouldnt be so bad to have to travel to the high country to ski...roads are so much safer and faster than the old days....I am of the age that remembers many day and nights on those switchbacks!
this water to snow ratio you speak of is actually blown up by cooler temps...its really easy for the western areas to claim a 30 inch dump just to see it deflate to a few inches of mashed potatoe mush because of the low moisture content....been there done that!...Ill take the lush green rainforest of Canaan over the scrubbrush of Colorado.....
fishnski wrote:
This is a great wx news thread...all you negative weenies get ur own thread!
........Btw Campster..u like to post the disclaimer about the Govt agencies that you get your info from ”¦.
do you ever post info other than govt ( taxpayer) funded sites?
Neg. NAO and Pos. PNA is all i'm talkin' bout.
I'm looking for non-gov't Wx sites that cover North America, but other than universities (more dumb elites) I haven't found any.
fishnski wrote:
It wont turn to rain budro...we are having maybe a 1 degree temp rise and that has been capped....we cant help but to have a heat Island effect from the big cities.and all the asphalt layed down..cant fix that unless you fix everyone!...plus we are at or below the Mason Dixon line with low elevation...we are lucky to have ski areas east of the western front Highlands anyway....if we lost those it wouldnt be so bad to have to travel to the high country to ski...roads are so much safer and faster than the old days....I am of the age that remembers many day and nights on those switchbacks!
Sorry, not a valid excuse here. I ski above 5K elevation where the surrounding areas within 100 miles are sparsely populated. It's great night sky camping terrain with very low light pollution too. Right now it's even worse there than it's ever been this far in to January this century. I can't speak for pre 1990s though but I do know that they got by on 100% natural snow in the 70s..
fishnski wrote:
Gonna have to head south to NC for the big dump this weekend...Over night GFS went all Bull for DC areas but that run was an anomaly..hope it swings north but that is kinda low chance right now...just a graze..
Sorry, going to be all rain until Thursday night or Friday. Too warm.. unheard of in Januarys of the past. Thursday night in to Friday will deliver a couple inches but that will be on top of 100% dit and rocks because the rail will have taken out all of the remaining base coverage. There will be enough cold to blow additional snow and get stuff open by Sunday though it will be at least half manmade, no real powder day. I might go check it out anyway. MLK weekend is looking good for our annuwal scout trip though. That might be the first time anyone around here actually gets to 100% open this season. I guess that is the new full game on start of ski season going forward.
Biggest dump we ever got in the flatlands was 24" in 2000. That warmer, moister but still sub freezing air produced super abnormal dumpage!
crgildart wrote:
fishnski wrote:
It wont turn to rain budro...we are having maybe a 1 degree temp rise and that has been capped....we cant help but to have a heat Island effect from the big cities.and all the asphalt layed down..cant fix that unless you fix everyone!...plus we are at or below the Mason Dixon line with low elevation...we are lucky to have ski areas east of the western front Highlands anyway....if we lost those it wouldnt be so bad to have to travel to the high country to ski...roads are so much safer and faster than the old days....I am of the age that remembers many day and nights on those switchbacks!
Sorry, not a valid excuse here. I ski above 5K elevation where the surrounding areas within 100 miles are sparsely populated. It's great night sky camping terrain with very low light pollution too. Right now it's even worse there than it's ever been this far in to January this century. I can't speak for pre 1990s though but I do know that they got by on 100% natural snow in the 70s..
1st of all you say that this is the worst than its ever been this century..but you cant speak for the 90's.....
2nd..you probably thought the snows were deeper when you were a kid...but didnt take into account that you were knee high to a grasshopper...jus joking but you get my drift!...
you are talking about the NC mountains which are really very southern mtns...back in the 70's there was a run of above normal snows but that doesnt mean anything....
Records have only been logged for a period that are so miniscule compared to the big pic..( think of a grain of sand in a bucket of sand...that grain is the length of record keeping )..100% natural snow might have been doable for parts of the season on say Appalacian mtn with a 400 vert and 2 runs...
You keep bringing up snow/water ratios but it dont snow if its not freezing and its been snowing and freezing south of the normal freeze line...
Canaan has actually raised there ave annual snow from 150 to 180 now .....Bottom line is you can bitch that things arn't as good as it gets but thats just life...the good times will come back around......
on another post you poo pawed the fcast for your NC mtns...I dont think you read my post where I was talking about THIS weekend.....and yeh...it rains cat and dogs any time of the winter in the whole east coast..let alone the SE....here is the fcast till more Data comes out....
Colder air arrives Wednesday as the front passes through. Wednesday has some drizzle or spotty light showers. (That could be freezing drizzle Wednesday afternoon at higher elevations.)
Here is where the "fun" and uncertainty really begins. A secondary push of colder air arrives Thursday. A bit of light snow is possible late Thursday into Friday. Then late Friday or Saturday, low pressure moves across the northern Gulf. That has the potential for a second round of snow. The range of possibilities remains wide. For now just keeping the chance of light snow late Thursday into Friday; then extend the potential for snow into Saturday. Whatever happens with the snow, it's going to be VERY COLD!
fishnski wrote:
crgildart wrote:
fishnski wrote:
It wont turn to rain budro...we are having maybe a 1 degree temp rise and that has been capped....we cant help but to have a heat Island effect from the big cities.and all the asphalt layed down..cant fix that unless you fix everyone!...plus we are at or below the Mason Dixon line with low elevation...we are lucky to have ski areas east of the western front Highlands anyway....if we lost those it wouldnt be so bad to have to travel to the high country to ski...roads are so much safer and faster than the old days....I am of the age that remembers many day and nights on those switchbacks!
Sorry, not a valid excuse here. I ski above 5K elevation where the surrounding areas within 100 miles are sparsely populated. It's great night sky camping terrain with very low light pollution too. Right now it's even worse there than it's ever been this far in to January this century. I can't speak for pre 1990s though but I do know that they got by on 100% natural snow in the 70s..
1st of all you say that this is the worst than its ever been this century..but you cant speak for the 90's.....
2nd..you probably thought the snows were deeper when you were a kid...but didnt take into account that you were knee high to a grasshopper...jus joking but you get my drift!...
you are talking about the NC mountains which are really very southern mtns...back in the 70's there was a run of above normal snows but that doesnt mean anything....
Umm "this century" started January 1st 2,000. Prior to that I lived elsewhere. I did study the history of the resorts here somewhat and they appear to have been quite viable in the latter half of the 1900s when they were started. 8 of the past 10 seasons have all been late bloomers.. That's more than an anecdote. That's pushing trend territory.
All that really matters is here and now, post human history industrial revolution where humans rule the earth when it comes to man caused climate change. It's pretty rich how the denial crowd loves to pine about temps and CO2 levels eons ago when the earth was a magma blobo or recovering from a massive asteroid strike or super volcano. Yes, those events and the weather they produced was far more extreme, but we weren't here to have to deal with it much less wanting to ski in it. It's impossible to be objective and ignore the trend of resorts that have had to either shut down or add millions of dollars worth of snow making infrastructure where just 50 years ago they were quite viable with only mother natrure providing the base. That's a "blip" to us..
Again, as mentioned it all boils down to .. will that one week of super cold/high snow delivery make up for those other 3 weeks of above average temps and rain? In places farther south that used to be viable the answer is no.. That line will move north and west. It won't hurt most of us up way past the current snow/rain lines initially, but 100 years from now it very well could. Rinse and repeat as un necessary..
ur right..my bad..I was thinking a whole century...so solly....
A trend with 8 out of 10 is not....If I had to put money on it the odds are that the next 10 years would ave out at or above ave....
the average annual snow for Beech mtn is 70 inches...exactly what they got last year...
BTW...I remember a snow storm on Mt Mitchell early oct this...last year...
fishnski wrote:
ur right..my bad..I was thinking a whole century...so solly....
A trend with 8 out of 10 is not....If I had to put money on it the odds are that the next 10 years would ave out at or above ave....
the average annual snow for Beech mtn is 70 inches...exactly what they got last year...
BTW...I remember a snow storm on Mt Mitchell early oct this...last year...
Again it isn't about total snowfall but temps staying cold enough to keep and pack base. 100 inches that melts 10 days later sucks way worse than 50 inches that stays cold for 2 months. We don't need any snow at all now with guns, just cold.. which we are getting in short hard bursts seperated by long warm spells (aka chaotic swings).. It averages out but doesn't facilitate preserving base.
crgildart wrote:
fishnski wrote:
ur right..my bad..I was thinking a whole century...so solly....
A trend with 8 out of 10 is not....If I had to put money on it the odds are that the next 10 years would ave out at or above ave....
the average annual snow for Beech mtn is 70 inches...exactly what they got last year...
BTW...I remember a snow storm on Mt Mitchell early oct this...last year...Again it isn't about total snowfall but temps staying cold enough to keep and pack base. 100 inches that melts 10 days later sucks way worse than 50 inches that stays cold for 2 months. We don't need any snow at all now with guns, just cold.. which we are getting in short hard bursts seperated by long warm spells (aka chaotic swings).. It averages out but doesn't facilitate preserving base.
I cant get the site to let me copy n paste so you will hopefully trust my ;post...the average annual temp in Boone NC has actually lowered from 52.5 in the late 1930's to 50.5 now....that is dramatic and shows how hot it was in the 30's....
Ill add so as not to cherry pick that the average snowfall has lowered in those same years...cant understand that..but thats the facts as I can find them...good debate Cdart...im heading out to grill a steak in low 80's here in FL...if ya cant beat em...join em!!!!
European model threw a 20"+ forecast for central flatland NC this Saturday the other day. Weather geeks were laughing at all the hysteria over that. Every run of the Euro since only drops an inch or two here. I've seen 20"+ here in January of 2,000. It shut the Triangle down for a week hahaha. Mountains aren't lining up well to get a big dump from this either, but it could still happen. If it does, I recommend sticking to the middle of where the WRODs run. Anyplace else there still won't be enough packed base to keep from totally destroying your skis. Ski shops around Boone will be repairing a lot of damage hahaha.
This is a peculiar exchange, fishnski your point seems to be that there is nothing peculiar or portentious about the patterns emerging, I think that's delusional, without the ramped up efforts and technology for snow making we would be in deep trouble, and for those of us who love natural snow the trouble seems deep already. You keep gloating about being on the coast while also saying concerns about snow in the mountains here are unfounded. I've read a lot of your stuff and gloating in that way seems to contradict your ongoing argument of nothing unique to see here, all is well for winter in the mid-atlantic.
By the way I always admire Northeasters pulling the trump card on blizzards, I was here for the 2 foot storms but was well prepared for it by growing up in Texas-- Amarillo 3600 ft
prolonged efforts to deny the increasingly obvious changes in climate give me a headache. Was I rude? Sorry altho you don't strike me as easily offended or unopiniated yourself. Interesting interpretation of my posts. Regarding gloating I wasn't talking about success or anything of the sort, I feel pretty fortunate (could be an illusion) I mean the attitude of even if the climate is warming I don't care, I'll stay at the beach; at least that's how I perceived it. But I could be wrong about that too. Snowmaking even a decade ago couldn't rival what we benefit from now, I put this in the castegory of technical advances that may ward off effects of a warming planet for awhile, and maybe as patterns change we'll be in a fortunate zone.
My son moved back from Oregon, pretty poor timing because winter is going huge there this year, glad I got the oppurtunity to see and ski Mt. Hood and view Ranier from Crystal, it's a big old beautiful country. Someday I'll make it to Idaho, Targhee, Montana,etc. but speaking of weather I cut that trip short, they were at less than10% of their average snowpack that February, should be good this year in CO though and I'll be there soon.
Hope this storm delivers and me and my sons will hit Beech or Sugar this weekend, Canaan Valley was beautiful last weekend, hope to get in the trees there soon. It would be nice if they can hold onto some snow for more than three days.
Anybody watch Nat Geo documentary "Before the Flood"? Agree or not, you should watch it. Btw the astronaut/scientist recently past away. Here's a skier perspective one worth your time https://youtu.be/pbtgNVykEpg
I feel the science outweighs the BS.
Chris Bailey used to be based in WV. His maps border Snowshoe now. I'm rooting for the high end of his 2 - 6 prediction. It ain't much but it's better than nothing.
Big storm cycle out west right now. Believe most everywhere from Tahoe to PNW, to UT to CO got a foot or two starting around Jan 1 and looks like they'll get another one to two feet or more of snow between Jan 4-7, 2016. Tahoe people are talking like this is their best ski conditions in five or six years.
http://www.onthesnow.com/california/skireport.html
they are expecting another 2 feet over the weekend.
i am still on the sidelines as shoulder recovers. Carolyn and I leave tomorrow for a 2 week trip to Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego.
Denis wrote:
http://www.onthesnow.com/california/skireport.html
they are expecting another 2 feet over the weekend.
Mammoth's powder alert I received today says 2 to 4 ft.
fishnski wrote:
I had to laugh..I cked out your 1st post here on Dcski Kempski...u were moaning about being stuck with a season pass at Snowshoe because you had plans to ski Cvr...blue knob...and then planned to ski Oregon...Idaho and Colorado... must be nice!...
I can assure you that Kemper is no poser and probably makes the cheapest ski trips known to mankind and is always gracious about it. If you can find him it's worth it.
Meanwhile, I saw where Solitude and others are reporting 38+ in the last 72 hours. How nice that must be and man i wish i was back there just one more time right now. just a dream however.
pagamony wrote:
Meanwhile, I saw where Solitude and others are reporting 38+ in the last 72 hours. How nice that must be and man i wish i was back there just one more time right now. just a dream however.
Email yesterday from my son in SLC (I'm going out there in two weeks):
Utah is getting hammered with snow right now. We got 2 feet yesterday, we will get another 2 feet tonight into Thursday, and then we will get yet another 2 feet Monday and Tuesday. So if everything lines up in place that's like 6 ft over an 8 day span.
kemperski wrote:
Hope this storm delivers and me and my sons will hit Beech or Sugar this weekend, Canaan Valley was beautiful last weekend, hope to get in the trees there soon. It would be nice if they can hold onto some snow for more than three days.
I wouldn't count on that. This storm's supposed to be fueled by moisture circulating in from the Atlantic. Heavist snow totals are probably going to be east of I95. Mountains may not get any. There's almost nothing left there right now. Tomorrow night they will finally get cold enough to start making snow again to salvage the WRODs and maybe start expanding. You'll be skiing in a whiteout of furious snow cannons this weekend for sure. Bring your goggle skigee. You will need it. The cold snap has arrived just in time to save the resorts, keep people employed, and extending in to next week set things much better for MLK Day weekend. We'll be there Sunday and Monday. Got a room in Boone Sunday night. Gonna pass on this weekend though. Next weekend will be WAY better.
I just put a hell of a long reply to you Kempski but some how I fumbled the click...
sooo..this will suck because i am not going to put that kind of effort back into this one...
I just thought that you had threw a cheap shot at me not knowing of my history to canaan that continues today....like "you just sit at the beach while we are living it while you are mouthing off on BS..."
nobody loves the Wv alpps more than me..as much ...not more...and i have promoted the Valley for years to anyone that will listen...and still to this day drive up there from long distances...lots of effort...
I do have a problem with your holier than thou statement of fact about this so called climate change....I have an endless basket of graphs, facts, commentary ect to match anything you want to produce which so far is just a flippant remark..
it is hard to even have a conversation nowadays with anyone on this climate thing because of the barrage of propoganda that is plastered into the brains,,
this is soooo much shorter version but even though i say that a place like canaan has a higher annual snowfall now than back in the day..one could argue..yeh..but it melts faster!..well..i can show you the last 16 years of the amount of days that snow has laid on the ground and there is no trend....
My man Cdart says that this kind of weather in January is unheard of...well...back in the 70's when I woke up one morning excited to be skiing up at Blueknob it was 60 degrees and pouring in mid Jan...this wasnt too long after the chesapeake froze over solid!...
the biggest problem I have is the thought that a govt could take a huge chunk of my income to try to combat what i feel is a minute warming that could just be cyclical...Do any of you ever walk out of the house and say..wow...we really need to do something about this weather.....do you really feel this warming..or is it a figment of your imagination?
Yeh...the Snow train out west has been amazing...everyday I wake up..ck the radar and its dumping in the NW....
I used to live in Washington State and have a good feel of the weather there...the passes are not much over 3000' in elevation... at these times of reported warming to see a moisture stream off of the relatively warmer Pacific produce snow and temps in the low to mid 20's is quite remarkable...or maybe normal?..or close to it...
I leave you with this....
.
The argument is that the 1930s were hotter, globally.
To begin, we know that by the far in the 1930s the US had the most extensive and reliable set of thermometer stations in the world, so greater weighting should be given to the US. Further, a 1975 National Academy of Sciences chart shows the Northern Hemisphere (64% of land) in the 1930s to be way hotter than 1975, and no way could the mild warming since the 1970s have overtaken the extensive cooling from 1940-75. Indeed, the data manipulators have erased the mid-20th century cooling, and done extensive manipulations to *supplement* the warming effect of the urban heat island and of the vanishing rural stations (especially from the old USSR).
What we got is parking lot warming, and spreadsheet warming. But not warming in reality.
What’s more, if we had actually had a century of runaway global warming then of course it would follow that the record for the hottest days in the world and on the various continents would have been set very recently (every year is “the hottest year ever” so”¦), and the coldest days should be a distant memory. Well, the reality is the opposite: in 6 out of the 7 continents the record for the hottest day was set before the record for the coldest day. That’s inexplicable, unless it was hotter in the past than now:
Years Hottest & Coldest Day Record Were Set:
The World : : Hot 1913 Cold 1983
Europe : : Hot 1977 Cold 1978
Asia : : Hot 1942 Cold 1933
Africa : : Hot 1931 Cold 1935
Australia : : Hot 1960 Cold 1974
South America : : Hot 19o5 Cold 1907
North America : : Hot 1913 Cold 1947
Antarctica : : Hot 1974 Cold 1983
So riddle me this... Why wouldn't island or asphalt or parking lot caused heat warming be human caused wearming??? Acting like that doesn't count as AGW is pretty hypocritical. It's the same science that purports that less polar ice reflets less sun back out ot space and warms the water more. We do still get decent extent, but not for as many days of the year... Ice recedes longer in to fall/winter than it used to. recovers OK but then melts quicker and longer..
There are all kinds of feedbacks in weather...the man made infrastructure is Baked in ..so to speak...nothing you can do about that...
this shorter season you speak of is false Cdart..I saw the 1st snows way up north in august..I was surprised to see it...Ill have to watch this melt..
This goes against my conservative/libertarian thinking but lets give a tax credit to anyone that paints their roofs white...
can you argue that this minute warming we are seeing has a negative effect on our lives?...There are endless positives.....
Number of skiable days per season at White Grass has remained the same since they opened in 1979.
Fishnski, I have no doubt you love the Canaan Valley region, I'm a newbie and a tourist to the area and I already love it so I shouldn't project your quips to mean you don't care about it. So perhaps a cheap shot on my part.
You complain about the hysteria and quasi-religious aspect of enviromentalism but you seem really didactic, inflexible and demeaning to anyone who disagrees with you. I cannot debate point by point minutia on climate change but like any intelligent person I don't have to, we choose credible information and try to sift it reasonably -- you are on the other side of a divide that I see as credible and growing science. But I could be wrong. You seem to have consporacy theories of some academic global elite bent on gouging hardworking folks for tax dollars. I see an outdated trillion dollar industry fighting to squeeze the last dollar at any enviromental cost and to the detriment of my childrens future. I see nothing but harm and futility in that path and considerable hope in leading the way to develop alternatives.
Perhaps we are both zealots
your post reminds me of a an interesting poem that if you read it backward it would mean something different...
You are way more articulate than me..I grew up in the hood...but your posts have no beef...with all due respect...
Bonski...watched your vid....thx for posting...loved it especially since my 2 nieces just went there for a trip...BUT...another fluff piece for GW...its endles.....
how the frick do you explain the record ice in Greenland?....
Greenland is the main scource for Sea Rise and all these Pacific Islands that have Hustled the world for all kinds of money to save their precious little Islands are now living high on the hog as they advertise these great beaches to lure more money in from the tourist....friggin Niave chumps we are....
I have not noticed a hair of sea level rise from my vantage point and I have watched for 40 some odd years..
camp wrote:
Number of skiable days per season at White Grass has remained the same since they opened in 1979.
Wuzz up Campster?....u were the one that got me all stirred up u Rascal....r u for real with that stat?
fishnski wrote:
Wuzz up Campster?....u were the one that got me all stirred up u Rascal....r u for real with that stat?
I wuz on a commercial/private wx history site today (but they still get their data from govt, sooooo) looking at Elkins temps from 1926-2016. I only looked at Jan of each year and tried to graph it using the mean temp for the month, figuring January is as close to winter as we get. I couldn't make an efficient pretty graph from the spreadsheet, but what i saw looked relatively flat. I didn't have the motivation to get Dec, Jan, and Feb, average those, and then graph them.
You have heard of the Alberta Clipper?.....I call this the Lake Tahoe Clipper....look at that train of moisture coming off the Pacific slamming the Sierras with maybe 10 to 15...FEET of snow...good news is the drought there will be wiped out....
as cold as it is in our region it wont take much moisture to fluff up a nice blanket of sweetness .....looks like JimK.will be doing some sampling tomorrow up in the alpps (Alpine in the Apps )..anyone else?.......(Drat....its up dating...image will lose its effect I guess...)
camp wrote:
Number of skiable days per season at White Grass has remained the same since they opened in 1979.
They operate on 100% natural right? It would be interesting to see if they have more or less terrain open on average
The number of skiable days per year (with the number of days when all 50 km was open) used to be shown on the Whitegrass website. Can't seem to find it now.
Looks like 6" on the NC mountains Friday-Saturday afternoon. Wish there was base to put that on but every little bit helps. They will now doubt pack it down right away and keep guns blasting all weekend. We need more coverage to ramp up for MLK weekend.
wgo wrote:
The number of skiable days per year (with the number of days when all 50 km was open) used to be shown on the Whitegrass website. Can't seem to find it now.
Chip and company probably could tell us how many 50K days each season had were we to ask
This is linked from WG’s page. http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com.
I looked at Table 12.3 Mean daily temperature from 1999-2016
I’m sure someone handy with spreadsheets could turn this into a line graph or something. From that table I can say that last year was colder than the oldest recorded year* in Canaan*. Yea, it’s funny to me too.
*recorded by that website observer
Snowfall data in CV from 1944/45 thru 2006/07 available here:
http://www.whitegrass.com/downloads/CV.snowfall.totals.doc
No temperature data available at that link, unfortunately.
wgo wrote:
Snowfall data in CV from 1944/45 thru 2006/07 available here:
http://www.whitegrass.com/downloads/CV.snowfall.totals.doc
No temperature data available at that link, unfortunately.
I don't see any real problem in that data. I even isolated December to see if early season snowfall looked to be declining. It doesn't show that way in this data. It appears that in terms of natural snow CV hasn't been higher or lower on average in a big way back in the 50s than they were in the 00s. 2 degrees globally isn't a big deal to them like it is to people on the coast where sea level rise and bigger storm surges could be. I'd like to see similar data for the NC resorts because we are definitely right on the make or break point for ski resort viability.
Bonzski wrote:
Denis wrote:
http://www.onthesnow.com/california/skireport.html
they are expecting another 2 feet over the weekend.
Mammoth's powder alert I received today says 2 to 4 ft.
Their latest alert just in...
Day 2 of this mega-storm has brought storm totals to over 3 feet at Main Lodge and over 7 feet at the summit. Forecasts are calling for 2 more systems to move through Mammoth the next 5 days with huge snowfall predictions. The weekend weather will bring high winds, heavy snowfall and lift holds across the mountain
I want to save this point in time.... Check out these 72 hour and 7 day totals.... Check out Wolf Creek reporting a 100+" base. What did Whitetail get in the first snowpocalypse - mabye 36"?
| Resort Name | 24 Hour Snow | 48 Hour | 72 Hour | 7 Days | Base Depth | User Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower/Upper | ||||||
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
0" | 28" | 54" | 89" | 35" - 92" |
3.2 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 5 |
0" | 30" | 53" | 83" | 60" - 117" |
3.4 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
10" | 30" | 52" | 77" | 52" - 64" |
3.2 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 5 |
0" | 48" | 72" | 76" | 12" - 48" |
3.2 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
0" | 40" | 57" | 74" | 30" - 72" |
3 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
0" | 29" | 47" | 74" | 50" - 91" |
3.6 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
0" | 13" | 35" | 66" | 60" - 84" |
3.6 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
0" | 19" | 30" | 64" | 50" - 84" |
3.7 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
0" | 30" | 42" | 64" | 41" - 76" |
3.9 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 5 |
0" | 36" | 62" | 62" | 6" - 12" |
3 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
1" | 13" | 32" | 61" | 93" - 93" |
3.3 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
0" | 15" | 19" | 57" | N/A - 80" |
3.4 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 6 |
13" | 25" | 29" | 57" | 99" - 109" |
3.5 |
|
Last Updated: 1/ 4 |
0" | 0" | 26" | 55" | 82" - 82" |
Hey Pagamony, I thought I was finally going to ski Mt Ocaneechee, but doesn't look like thet will happen
kemper - unfortunately. no hucking the quarry. no winding access road. get out your rock skis (aka mountain bike). I got a thin crunchy cover on the yard. global warming shifted the freezing line to the north too late. .... one day...
Global Cooling shifted the powder line south and East to the Land of Canaan...working on a 2 day 10 inch snowfall (little more this aft/eve on backside upslope ) of the Lightest Utah Light ultra soft n Fluffy powder.....40 to 1 water to Snow ratio that has fallen softly in light winds...
I was going to wait a few days for this storm and others around the world to add to the big pic...but why wait..it allready tells the big story.......DROPPING THE MIC........
Yay for cold. They're blowing as much snow as we have falling from the clouds this weekend and probably all next week. Might be finally 100% open game on for MLK weekend. We'll be there next weekend Sunday/Monday.
Farther north looks pretty great. We've got just enough to sled on here, but not enough to take rock skis out in. I was hoping to try out my tele gear around the neighborhood this weekend for giggles, but that would take 6 more inches on top of the dust on crust we got so far..
fishnski wrote:
.... allready tells the big story.......DROPPING THE MIC........
I'd love to find this same map from Jan 6 from 2007, 1997, 1987 etc... But not right now, gotta make the turns on the cold spruceless PA farm hills....
A look at the FIS Wrold Cup competition schedule and cancellations over the past 50 years might also tell the big picture. Last season Europe had to cancell all the early season conpetions, This season the US and Europe cancelled several early season competitions. Up til last week, most of Europe was only skiable above 2,000 meters.
I do think we're getting more spring skiing than in the past. Problem is resorts would prefer the cold and snow Thanksgiving through President's Day instead of MLK Day through Easter..
camp wrote:
fishnski wrote:
.... allready tells the big story.......DROPPING THE MIC........
I'd love to find this same map from Jan 6 from 2007, 1997, 1987 etc... But not right now, gotta make the turns on the cold spruceless PA farm hills....
Ive looked and the oldest date that I could find was a week b4 this date back in 1997....20 years ago...
fishnski wrote:
Ive looked and the oldest date that I could find was a week b4 this date back in 1997....20 years ago...
Well, a week earlier. That explains it.
can't trust that govt data anyway
After years and years of catastophic doomsday predictictions...911 farenheit B the frick S....Arctic ice gone by 2007...2010..2012...2013.....Polor bears starving...Carabou drownng...Searise that will swamp Al Gores multi million dollar beach side mansion funded by all us gullible weenies......OH...the Glaciers are going!!!!...LOL...they have been since the last ice age...
Greenland ice melt to cause another ice age.....almost everyday on the Liberal loving news sites I read these articles....
But here we are after all these years....years recorded way back b4 1997 when this hystaria began....and what have we got?...maybe more snow and ice?
So sorry Folks...we all have those moments when you realize you have been Duped.......
Im not a Scientist...Im a scientist Monitor....I tell you when you have been Duped.....You have been Duped...
fishnski wrote:
Im not a Scientist...Im a scientist Monitor....I tell you when you have been Duped.....You have been Duped...
now that's funny
Single digit temps tomorrow and Monday then back up to the 60s with rain around Thursday. One week of KICK ASS weather followed by horrible weather rinse and repeat.. We had fun playing in the 3" of snow today though. Looks like we'll have to travel farther north to do better.
We have two street hockey goals and a bunch of sticks. The roads have a good inch of packed ice. I'm thinking tomorrow would be a great day to drag them out to the street and play sone real hockey.. A bit bumpy, few tire tread lines, perhaps boot hockey but still, the puck will skoot pretty well on it.
Five degrees tomorrow then up to 68 by Friday. Sure those kind if swings used to happen all the time??? Not normal for that to happen year after year post 2,000? Two years ago I had to mow the lawn in January. In my 50 plus years living everywhere between Texas and Minnesota, and parts east to Long Island I never saw a northern hemisphere lawn that needed mowning in January prior to this century. Might be the norm in south Florida or Houston, but never anywhere north of Dallas in my lifetime until very recently. It that was typical in the early and mid 1900s I'm off base, but it's different when the major experts' findings agree with our anectodal evidence than it is when they disagree with our anecdotal evidence... because they are experts and we are not..
This just in
Sure, there was a 14 year period where the warming was only 1/3rd of what was projected, but it has almost caught back up with those projections.. call it a systemic correction. It's a very complex set of systems, but the models aren't that far off now.
Enjoy the shorter cold spells and big dumps they bring. I plan to. MLK Day and President's Day big base spring skiing FTW! Our great grand kids won't have this in NC if the experts are even half right..
wgo wrote:
I know that weather forecasts more than 5 days out don't mean much, but it is still worth noting that starting Tuesday there is a chance of rain at snowshoe every single day for the next two weeks. Every. Single. Day.
Lots of precipitation this year, but temps haven't cooperated. For the most part, Northern VT has dodged the temp bullet and is having a good year. Some great skiing a week ago.
With the exception of rare years like last year, there seems to be at least a three week period where winter sneaks up on you. Remember skiing TLine with Denis and me and TimR about a decade ago? It was winter then (early March IIRC), but the first half of that year was rough.
crgildart wrote:
Five degrees tomorrow then up to 68 by Friday. Sure those kind if swings used to happen all the time??? Not normal for that to happen year after year post 2,000? Two years ago I had to mow the lawn in January. In my 50 plus years living everywhere between Texas and Minnesota, and parts east to Long Island I never saw a northern hemisphere lawn that needed mowning in January prior to this century. Might be the norm in south Florida or Houston, but never anywhere north of Dallas in my lifetime until very recently. It that was typical in the early and mid 1900s I'm off base, but it's different when the major experts' findings agree with our anectodal evidence than it is when they disagree with our anecdotal evidence... because they are experts and we are not..
This just in
Sure, there was a 14 year period where the warming was only 1/3rd of what was projected, but it has almost caught back up with those projections.. call it a systemic correction. It's a very complex set of systems, but the models aren't that far off now.
Enjoy the shorter cold spells and big dumps they bring. I plan to. MLK Day and President's Day big base spring skiing FTW! Our great grand kids won't have this in NC if the experts are even half right..
Im with ya Cdart on these extreme swings....I do remember gully washers in between cold snaps but they seemed to be an Anomoly...It seems like Mamma nature is unsettled and is trying to over compensate by pushing too much energy south just to exaust herself and have the warm rush back in...
I also do not remembering experiencing anything sub zero in Canaan for the first 8 years of going there but it seems to occur regularly now...I wish I had my book on Canaan weather dating back to the early 1900,s but its not with me...
with that said our personal records cannot even attempt to come close to what is normal...maybe what we remember was the abnormal and this is closer to normal...plus as we are having an extreme cold snap here in the lower 48 it is also cold and snowy across the Northern Hemi...the Island of Crete in the Med has had Heavy snow right up to those much much warmer ocean temps your article states.......look at OC Md....you would think that this warmer ocean would at least have an affect and not allow the snow to fall right on the beach...you would think there would be a few miles of buffer from the warmer ocean...
We are coming up on a crap pattern again...the extreme cold seems to slide off of Siberia and extend way out into the pacific cooling the ocean but losing some steam and then hitting our west coast and then shaving back up north into this endless circle dance that we see around the pole....
Ill also add that I used to argue with my wife who had been spending chrismas with her family in Florida for years that it was always cold at that time period there.(my experience )...she used to argue that over the years she had more 80 degree days than cooler ones...well ..now im starting to see those temps finally and today Florida is the only state in the union without some snow on the ground including Hawaii......(No Gloat Kempski...im jonesing for some snow...will get my fix later)....
We have to think of the Big Pic...technically we are still coming out of the ice age...What is normal...what is happening now?....is there anything we could do about it anyway...are we not seeing some real benifits from some warming?..
how much have we really warmed...judging by Satilite temps since records began in 1979..not much...but that will depend on whos info you are going by.......remember....
SCIENCE IS THE BELIEF IN THE IGNORANCE OF THE EXPERTS....or thier agenda....
Im done...wish everyone some good conditions down the slope...hoping for a great end of season...im going to need it....
Sorry for the Spruceless cold hills remark Campster, PA is an extremely scenic and homey place...peace in the middle east.. thats the mid atlantic eastern ski areas!!
Northstar, Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows are closed due to "challenging weather" today. Translation, a foot of warm rain washed away several feet of cold snow and loaded up what's left on steeps so slides are happening all over:-(
http://forum.pugski.com/attachments/screen-shot-2017-01-08-at-10-01-03-am-png.18212/
Guess im never done....
its warm ..no dought..its called the Pineapple express...a river of moisture sreaming straight from the tropics and smacking into the sierras....warm air rises...
it will turn back into snow late tonite and dump another 4 feet.....when the east is in the grips of an arctic onslought..(-2 at canaan hts at 1 pm...)...it is warm out west...also warmer up in AK...when we get back to the bitching warmth here a place like Barrow AK doesnt get out of below 0 temps......
But thats Great weather news sCidart!....Ca sure needs it...thx for posting...
crgildart wrote:
Northstar, Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows are closed due to "challenging weather" today. Translation, a foot of warm rain washed away several feet of cold snow and loaded up what's left on steeps so slides are happening all over:-(
http://forum.pugski.com/attachments/screen-shot-2017-01-08-at-10-01-03-am-png.18212/
Holy crap, look at the temps.. several feet of cement about to dump..
Today's a bit gusty. They can't run the lifts at all.
Looks like I need to quit complaining about limited terrain and having to ski mostly manmade year round in Appalacia these days. There is such a thing as too much snow, especially if it is heavy wet snow. Next week will be WAY better here than there. Not exactly "Great weather news", but better here than there news for sure..
CDART....
its over Johnny!!!!!!.....
dont know if u know it cdart but Sierra Cement has been around since the Global Cooling Hysteria of the 70's...
I wonder if Ibotta who started this thread and only made one post knows that we are working on 9000 reads?...
Care to contribute anything Ibot?..lol....
fishnski wrote:
Sorry for the Spruceless cold hills remark Campster, PA is an extremely scenic and homey place....
Oh I'm well aware of the skiing limitations of the Great Valley. But it's a lot better than where I used to live. Ripped hours of cold man-made today. 985 feet at a time
SCIENCE IS THE BELIEF IN THE IGNORANCE OF THE EXPERTS....or thier agenda....
....
I thought science was all about experimentation and peer review. Have I been duped again by those damn experts and their corporations?
JohnL wrote:
With the exception of rare years like last year, there seems to be at least a three week period where winter sneaks up on you. Remember skiing TLine with Denis and me and TimR about a decade ago? It was winter then (early March IIRC), but the first half of that year was rough.
Oh yeah for sure. Just complaining because I actually scheduled a family ski trip well in advance (rare for me) and the weather looks like it will not be cooperating. We will ski whatever is available and have a good time. And I fully expect a powder day or three in the second half of the season.
camp wrote:
fishnski wrote:
Sorry for the Spruceless cold hills remark Campster, PA is an extremely scenic and homey place....
Oh I'm well aware of the skiing limitations of the Great Valley. But it's a lot better than where I used to live. Ripped hours of cold man-made today. 985 feet at a time
SCIENCE IS THE BELIEF IN THE IGNORANCE OF THE EXPERTS....or thier agenda....
....I thought science was all about experimentation and peer review. Have I been duped again by those damn experts and their corporations?
Science has been corrupted like everything else....this whole world we live in is influenced by whoevers agenda...
Did you ever read about Climategate?...Hacked emails of govt and Govt funded scientist collaberating on a GW sratergy?
Bottom line today...Northern Hem snow above ave
Arctic Ice a little below average..
world temp is whoever you listen to...
ill concede 1 degree....Capped..
Reason for 1 degree?...split...
comfort factor for 1 degree rise...excellent..
Sking cond for mid Atlantic....1 snow flake shy of a full slope..
Bitch factor at Dcski...2 maybe 3 folks,,untill further notice...
prognosis for future Gw banter with new prez....minamal....thx God...
fishnski wrote:
prognosis for future Gw banter with new prez....minamal....thx God...
Nuclear Winter! What kind of wax do you recommend for that eh??
Having an M.S. in Physics, I am not totally unaware of science. Camp is partially correct, science is about hypothesis, experiment and results conclusion. Peer review, less so. Scientists have been proven to be succeptible to group think and biases as any others and a lot less gets peer reviewed in detail than you'd think. Scientists need to stay out of politics, especially in making conclusions on subjects outside their expertise. But politicians need to stay out of science.
Tough thing about Global Warming is that it somewhat subtle. Climate is different from weather, and we all have opinions about weather. And the world's climate is a complex system, subject to many complex interactions. (I personally believe man-made GW exists, the extent is still TBD.)
So given some of the subtlety, I don't think much can be concluded about any particular winter, but I understand why skiers are paying attention.
JohnL wrote:
Having an M.S. in Physics, I am not totally unaware of science.
Having an M.S in Physics just makes you a nerd...
David wrote:
JohnL wrote:
JohnL wrote:
David wrote:
JohnL wrote:
Having an M.S. in Physics, I am not totally unaware of science.
Having an M.S in Physics just makes you a nerd...
But you knew that....
At least I don't cut people for a living. ;)
Me either. You think I'm some kind of surgeon/barbarian? Please...
So you just have the leeches do it for you? Got it.
JohnL wrote:
David wrote:
JohnL wrote:
JohnL wrote:
David wrote:
JohnL wrote:
Having an M.S. in Physics, I am not totally unaware of science.
Having an M.S in Physics just makes you a nerd...
But you knew that....
At least I don't cut people for a living. ;)
Me either. You think I'm some kind of surgeon/barbarian? Please...
So you just have the leeches do it for you? Got it.
You guys are too funny. Guess you never know where these weather threads will lead.
It's a pretty good leading indicator that we DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH ACTUAL SKIING when we the most active thing we have is a have a sucky weather thread dominated by nerdosity and climate change. Damn. I want to see some photos from the cherry bowl and the pipeline, powder in the meadows and whales on the drop. It's almost MLK and this sucks.
edit: oh yeah, I have degrees in both physics and statistics and my skiing still sucks.
It's not the Cherry Bowl but I thought this pic came out sorta cool. It was down right cold as a well diggers ass in Alaska this weekend at Snowshoe.
pagamony wrote:
It's a pretty good leading indicator that we DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH ACTUAL SKIING when we the most active thing we have is a have a sucky weather thread dominated by nerdosity and climate change. Damn. I want to see some photos from the cherry bowl and the pipeline, powder in the meadows and whales on the drop. It's almost MLK and this sucks.
edit: oh yeah, I have degrees in both physics and statistics and my skiing still sucks.
Actually, I've had a great season so far. 16 days at 13 areas - and none yet at T-Line. Go figure. Pow days in CO and VT. Wuz out sick with head cold yesterday. But I had a blast skiing Bold Decision at Whitetail on Sat. Transitioned from mm pow to bumps as the day progressed.
And two Utah trips, a trip to Whistler/Blackcomb, ABay in May, and maybe one more VT trip all to come. And The Valley won't suck all year. And LM will be rocked by me at least once. And maybe Plattekill - I love that place. Overall, I'm digging this ski year, some things happening to be sucking right now.
pagamony wrote:
It's a pretty good leading indicator that we DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH ACTUAL SKIING when we the most active thing we have is a have a sucky weather thread dominated by nerdosity and climate change. Damn. I want to see some photos from the cherry bowl and the pipeline, powder in the meadows and whales on the drop. It's almost MLK and this sucks.
edit: oh yeah, I have degrees in both physics and statistics and my skiing still sucks.
Super NERD FTW!!!
I am currently in beaver creek wishing it would stop snowing. My wife and I had to check out of our hotel, but we have no way to get back to Denver because an avalanche covered Vail pass last night. Then this morning they did a controlled avalanche at the Eisenhower tunnel. It released a slide that covered I-70 with 10 ft of snow. I fly out tomorrow morning at 10 from Denver. Wish me luck.
In case anyone wondered, the skiing was fantastic. Lots of powder not much of a crowd.
Wow!
crested butte, monarch, and abasin all shut down by avalanche concerns, mostly on the roads i believe. 35" of very wet heavy snow. more wow.
AndyGene wrote:
I am currently in beaver creek wishing it would stop snowing. My wife and I had to check out of our hotel, but we have no way to get back to Denver because an avalanche covered Vail pass last night. Then this morning they did a controlled avalanche at the Eisenhower tunnel. It released a slide that covered I-70 with 10 ft of snow. I fly out tomorrow morning at 10 from Denver. Wish me luck.
In case anyone wondered, the skiing was fantastic. Lots of powder not much of a crowd.
I've changed to flying in/out of Vail Eagle instead of Denver because of situations similar to this happen on I-70 all too often. Flights are a little pricier, but that can easily be offset by taking the eagle county bus (~$5) to Vail/BC and saving cost of rental car, parking, etc.
Bonzski wrote:
AndyGene wrote:
I am currently in beaver creek wishing it would stop snowing. My wife and I had to check out of our hotel, but we have no way to get back to Denver because an avalanche covered Vail pass last night. Then this morning they did a controlled avalanche at the Eisenhower tunnel. It released a slide that covered I-70 with 10 ft of snow. I fly out tomorrow morning at 10 from Denver. Wish me luck.
In case anyone wondered, the skiing was fantastic. Lots of powder not much of a crowd.
I've changed to flying in/out of Vail Eagle instead of Denver because of situations similar to this happen on I-70 all too often. Flights are a little pricier, but that can easily be offset by taking the eagle county bus (~$5) to Vail/BC and saving cost of rental car, parking, etc.
We made it. Sitting on the plane now. It was not a fun drive. I think the average speed between Vail and Georgetown was 25 mph.
I would have flown to Vail, but it was a free trip on southwest.
Tahoe area resorts have so much snow they need another day to dig the lifts and facilities out to get open again. They did open Tuesday for a couple hours but had to shut down again. Think of all the pent up demand there with mediocre conditions Nov and Dec then suddenly this but too much to keep manageable. When they finally get terrain open again it will be......Crazyness!
Bonzski wrote:
The latest pow alert from Mammoth.... 2017 is off to an awesome start ”“ we’ve been hit with a series of super storms, dropping 113”“200" in only 8 days. Here's to a sweet, long season ahead.
Can we hate them? Or just be extremely jelly?
And here I am nervously monitoring the trail count and base depth at Snowshoe
wgo wrote:
And here I am nervously monitoring the trail count and base depth at Snowshoe
Similar here. Heading to Banner Ellk/Boone area. Happy Appy has solid base most trails. They are a definite. Wondering if Sugar will have enough moderate/easy blue terrain besides something that requires the switchback icy bottleneck to get to. Big Birch would be great for what my daughter needs to ski, everything at Appalachian is doable for her. Not much at Sugar in the blue range is within reach for her right now though if Big Birch doesn't survive the heat miser attack this weekend before we get there Monday.
crgildart wrote:
wgo wrote:
And here I am nervously monitoring the trail count and base depth at Snowshoe
Similar here. Heading to Banner Ellk/Boone area. Happy Appy has solid base most trails. They are a definite. Wondering if Sugar will have enough moderate/easy blue terrain besides something that requires the switchback icy bottleneck to get to. Big Birch would be great for what my daughter needs to ski, everything at Appalachian is doable for her. Not much at Sugar in the blue range is within reach for her right now though if Big Birch doesn't survive the heat miser attack this weekend before we get there Monday.
At least you are only a few days out. We are still 10 days out from the trip to Snowshoe.
wgo wrote:
At least you are only a few days out. We are still 10 days out from the trip to Snowshoe.
7 days for me. We have a group of 20ish going to SS for my buddies B Day weekend.
This REALLY SUCKS. I live in NE OH between PIT and CLE. It's currently 62* and we just had a T storm roll thru with torential down pours.
Our biggest trip is Feb 23rd-27th. House is paid for. If neither TL4S nor CV has terrain open we will bring fishing gear.
I'm headed toward that blue area late month, hope this holds
That is about as bipolar as it gets, just amazing. I notice the prime Eastern ski areas are all in the range most likely to be above, which is just cruelty.
pagamony wrote:
That is about as bipolar as it gets, just amazing. ..
I know. I'm hoping Fish has some alternative non-govt data models that flips this scenario. although the above does set up well for my first western trip since parenthood in a couple weeks. The rest of the season on this NOAA site isnt any better. Off to burn the legs on the local now.....ho hum
The govt data you posted Camp shows the 5 day average ending on the 26th...like I posted earlier...pretty consistent data is showing a return to winter for the east on or about the 25th of Jan..which will show up on the following 5 day anomaly outlook...
Dont like to look out too much further in time than 10 days but when you see run after run on the longer range GFS showing the cold air over the west sweeping east by the 25th with a quick 1 day shot on the 18th..ya kinda of take notice...
The Euro model this aft should give an idea if it is following suit......
if this fcast holds it looks like the east wont rob the west this time so out westers shouldnt worry too much....
And one more point...the expanse of cold looks too large for a quick hit and gone barrage...hoping this is the great weather news start to the 2nd half season....think positive and keep ur Ski poles crossed....
Ok...back to the whining...
models still showing end of jan cold snap....here is the Euro long range bet for early feb....
fishnski wrote:
models still showing end of jan cold snap....here is the Euro long range bet for early feb....
Woohoo, thanks man. Was hoping you'd find some non-govt data showing us what we want to see. That is just what we need. Mid-Feb has been really consistent the past several winters. Hope it holds again. Got some more Spring skiing in today, happy carves.
As ususal NC didn't make Fish's cut. Don't tell him I'm headed to WV in February..
Looking at the web cams at many of the ski resorts (even 7 Springs and Snowshoe) it's really drepressing seeing such awful snow conditions all throughout the region. Such thin coverage on so many of the trails and the warm conditions/fog/humidity is making them worse each day. Looks like it will be at least another 10 days at a minimum until most places can make snow again for any duration (and that isn't even a sure bet). Temperatures in the 50s and rain Friday and again later in the weekend are going to make for another awful weekend at local ski resorts.
Go, make the best of it, be positive and enjoy!
The Colonel wrote:
Go, make the best of it, be positive and enjoy!
Did that yesterday. Thank ULLR that they blew all they could last cold snap. This run isn't usually open before late December. it was a slushfest but still hella fun until my boots were soggy.. Only noticed one minor scratch on the bases of my NEW skis after this session..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fPPN6dHIiM
The Colonel wrote:
Go, make the best of it, be positive and enjoy!
OK! Family and I skied Massanutten on Sunday. Snow was soft but never slushy. Little mini-moguls/piles of snow sprouting up all over the place, lots of fun. Met up with MarzNC and we skied a few runs together. Apres beer at the new slopeside bar was a good way to end a good day.
pagamony wrote:
kemper - unfortunately. no hucking the quarry. no winding access road. get out your rock skis (aka mountain bike). I got a thin crunchy cover on the yard. global warming shifted the freezing line to the north too late. .... one day...
Pagamony, I can't figure out picture posting so you will have to take my word, but finally I skiied Ocaneechee, highest point in Orange county. It was thin and rocky but those are the most beautifully spaced low angle trees imaginable
A little bit of good weather news
Nearly 2 months into Snowshoe's season and there was MORE snow on opening day in November than there is now. So much for the first 2 months of so called winter. Not sure why I torture myself .......
Opening Day (Nov 2016)
Yesterday (Jan 17, 2017)
dang that is brutal. I am not sure if that makes my pain more or less.
Whew I was worried until seeing that I can still ski to the waffle hut from the lift. Props to the mountain ops, still 55 trails Open! It's why I don't complain much about keeping blowers running on open trails. It's the east people!
I get that this is a weather thread, and not a climate thread. Must have been some dang hot weather all over last year, as 2016 was just named the warmest "on record". Can't wait for this new Administration and a new Secretary of Science to start working with the climate data and make it colder for a few years. Can't be soon enough
comon Campster...u r drooling with pessimism...Its stinkin hot here in the east and the rest of the world is soooo friggin stupid to understand that we r going down...nonsense....while we are baking there are others suffering with cold...all the way down south to the Sahara to killing lamas in South America...we come back like ive been saying on or about the 25th....and this is as far out as it goes so far.......
fishnski wrote:
comon Campster...u r drooling with pessimism...
Cool dood, needed the ice water bath. The global data begins cooling tomorrow
It looks like spring will be over by next weekend. And the cold should continue for at least a week! Time to fire up the guns.
Killin' it this weekend. I imagined I was skiing tight couloirs between the brown lines.
OTOH, the NAO has shifted ahead of the coming cold. The new administration is making America Cold Again already. The Climate change has been stricken - woohooo for skiers.
But...Obama took a break from golfing at Palm springs and headed over to Owl Bores multi..multi million dollar BEACHfront home funded by all his convenient lies and they are fighting back trying to pound down the Pacific ridge to offset the NAO....
No sandbags to protect his house yet....
Thankfully it appears that all mid-Atlantic ski resorts will be able to start making snow again very soon and have an extended period of below freezing temps at night (and for many during the day too). In all the years that ski resorts have had web cams up I can't recall ever seeing such poor conditions at this point in the season at all of the resorts - even the ones that normally have great snow coverage and natural snow as Snowshoe, 7 Springs, Wisp, Canaan Valley, etc.. It is really a tribute to the snow operations teams at all of the resorts that they've been able to keep as many trails open as possible even with limited cover on most of them. Hopefully February will be a banner month for all of them to make up for a dreadful January.
Just peeked at the webcams - spitting snow at the 'Shoe at 10 AM today
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
Just peeked at the webcams - spitting snow at the 'Shoe at 10 AM today
Snowing pretty good now...lift hold on most of the basin though
Full reboot needed for most of NC. Appalachian stayed alive, but they have far fewer acres to keep covered and pile snow up on when temps allow..
All of our Jan snow fell in the Sierras. From the Mammoth homepage....
"We blasted through the record for most monthly snowfall [209"] with 241" of snow so far this January and it's STILL DUMPING! This severe winter storm is forecast to continue through the morning and resort operations will again be limited and road closures are still in effect."
Also some cool pics on their page.
Now it's time to tilt the scales this way please!
FWIW guns came online at snowshoe soon after the slopes closed and it's still snowing a bit
5" overnight for 7springs. Slight warmup then back to the cold on Thursday. I am sure guns will be firing at max capacity.
Mother Nature... The B*tch is Back! yes, I'm still not convinced she loves us as much as she used to, but I'll take what I can get. Welcome Home! Please stay long enough to help us get all our terrain open and bases built back up.
<3 I forgive you! <3
Can anyone post some alternative facts to this February depression?
Why haven't these govt scientists lost their jobs already? Running out of patience, and the buzz from CO has worn off now.
camp wrote:
Can anyone post some alternative facts to this February depression?
And i don't mean this:. These people need their funding cut. I really need some good alternate facts right now.
"2016 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic, and 2017 has picked up right where it left off. “Arctic extreme (relative) warmth continues,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics, tweeted on Wednesday, referring to January’s temperatures.
Veteran Arctic climate scientists are stunned.
“[A]fter studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme,” wrote Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in an essay for Earth magazine.
At the North Pole, the mercury has rocketed to near the melting point twice since November, and another huge flux of warmth is projected by models next week. Their simulations predict some places in the high Arctic will rise over 50 degrees above normal."
crgildart wrote:
Awesome. I'll take it. 6 more weeks
After nearly 40 inches of snow up at canaan....capped with another inch and a half Yesterday and last nite...waking up to 5 degrees this morn..I figured that the time was ripe for folks to come out of hybernation and start moaning about GW again...
Ive said this b4...we have had a tremendous amount of heat to get rid of that was stored in the Pacific with El nino and even with that the Arctic has still managed to grow at a decent clip...no way it could have done that with the Alarmist figures put out....
BTW Campster..Ryan Maue is a GW sceptic...and Marc sereeze is a Whacko....
Hope uall can see this link...
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/02/tracking-the-super-hot-melting-arctic/
fishnski wrote:
After nearly 40 inches of snow up at canaan....capped with another inch and a half Yesterday and last nite...waking up to 5 degrees this morn..I figured that the time was ripe for folks to come out of hybernation and start moaning about GW again...
Ive said this b4...we have had a tremendous amount of heat to get rid of that was stored in the Pacific with El nino and even with that the Arctic has still managed to grow at a decent clip...no way it could have done that with the Alarmist figures put out....
BTW Campster..Ryan Maue is a GW sceptic...and Marc sereeze is a Whacko....
Hope uall can see this link...
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/02/tracking-the-super-hot-melting-arctic/
Fish, it's important not to get meteorology confused with climatology. They're not the same thing at all. It's easy to understand how people can get the two mixed up, and sites like that capitalize on people's general understanding of backyard weather to make fun of serious science and suggest that everything is a-ok.
Understood !9th...but u cant argue with the end result which is the Arctic map posted...
We could argue forever on climatology and Serious science...or what to do about it...
Science is the Belief in the Ignorance of the experts....who have been wrong time and time again....
Well, at least the Feynman quote at the top of the page comes from a real scientist.
Things might be shaping up for a big dump in CV/Timberline areas next weekend. Rain Friday and saturday with snow Sunday morning. 5 degrees cooler and it could be all snow especially at the higher elevations.. Stay tuned!!
crgildart wrote:
Things might be shaping up for a big dump in CV/Timberline areas next weekend. Rain Friday and saturday with snow Sunday morning. 5 degrees cooler and it could be all snow especially at the higher elevations.. Stay tuned!!
Here's hoping. It would be nice if some of the weather news on the "Great Weather News" thread was actually great.
Yes, bad weather news. It looks like we're going to have at least 7 days of warm weather. I would imagine that some resorts will need to close. Two bad years in a row. Hopefully next year will see a return of some normalcy.
Would not be surprised to see Whitetail, Liberty, Bryce, Massanutten and possibly one or two more not make it until the end of the month.
Watching next weekend...looks like as of now at least snowshoe and the valley (and likely the laurel highlands areas) will get 36+ hours snowmaking temps. Hopefully it makes its way a bit further east as right now snowtime resorts stay just above freezing.
Don't know about making it past March 5, but I expect Massanutten to be open the last weekend of Feb. Late Season is supposed to start on March 6, 2017. The depth of snow on the open trails is pretty impressive. The snowmaking upgrades in the last few years made a big difference during the short windows of cold enough weather in the last few weeks. Quite different than 4-5 years ago when 10 inches seemed the norm for early and late season depths.
CV Temps look to stay above 50 unil Saturday night with rain earlier on Saturday. I doubt that anyone will be making snow after this weekend except places tht still have events under contract and need to make more for those events..
Did Brad or Tammy predict this miserable Mid-A February. What say them for March?
Glimmers*...
*same elite govt science-based sources that predicted our shitty Mid-A February. One of these is labeled "experimental". I wonder if that means the same as alternative?
The top image is a rolling 3-4 week .gif, so it should update in place and we can check back and watch it change here like the others far up the page.
I don't see how some of the resorts are still open after we've faced the last week with the weather and will face this weekend. Really is depressing seeing how much the last week's weather has done on the slopes all over with no relief in sight and for the resorts such dramatic drops in skier visits.
We chose the right year to travel to Banff this week as it will surely be our lsat skiing of the season.
Just got thru a really Bad trip to Canaan..not because of the weather but because Me n Betterhalfski had our really nice skiis$$$ walked off with after we skied Valentines day in great snowy conditions...then skiing friday the 17th in gorgeous Bluebird weather with great conditions at Canaan ski area my greatest ski buddy of all times caught n edge trying to chase after me dropping thru the Meadows and snapped her Tibula at the knee and our late started season ended early and her Alpine skiing is probably over at a relatively early age of 56...
we were skiing on our older Rock skiis and her bindings were probably defective...kicking ourselves in the Butt for trying to have fun over being responsible...
Ortho in Elkins said she needed major Surgery and would need to hang in WV for 3 months so we waited 5 days for swelling to die down and for her to finally cruch it and we just got back to Fl where we will have surgery and Rehab....WOW..its been a rough one
...but....Weather is looking up!!....what they do with some of the colder snowy stuff is the Question..
Sorry to hear about that, Fish. Here's hoping both winter and your better half come roaring back with a vengence!
wgo wrote:
Sorry to hear about that, Fish. Here's hoping both winter and your better half come roaring back with a vengence!
+1!
Thx WGO and Mr K....and any future good vibes...
Paying my 2nd half snow plowing bill for my Camp up at Canaan was kinda unsettling...even if it snows like the dickens coming up if I dont have any renters its a waste....
The locals are not fooled by this latest warm blast and say it will snow in April...
back on March 7,.. 2 years ago the Potomac was frozen over so just keep things in perspective....I learned to Ski in the Mountains of North Africa which are about or south of NC in latitude....they have been showing a consistent snow cover during the last few weeks that i have been checking...I can remember days in the 60's that they didnt have enough snow for skiing....
Im booking my resz for next year....gonna be great!!!!
fishnski wrote:
... my greatest ski buddy of all times caught n edge trying to chase after me dropping thru the Meadows and snapped her Tibula at the knee and our late started season ended early and her Alpine skiing is probably over at a relatively early age of 56...
Oh that sucks. So bummed to hear this. I hope it's not 56.
Total bummer on the Mrs injury and ski loss. Seems like noting but bad news these days in this fake winter.
Here's to a speedy recovery and hopefully the theif catches that same edge!
Thx uall...the insult to Injury would be the Winter making a comeback too late to matter...just leaving us with a cold spring...yucky!
OH....I will sorely miss my Black and maroon double deck Atomic skiis in the 180 length and a pair of light blue Dynamics...165's...
March 7...
fishnski wrote:
Just got thru a really Bad trip to Canaan..not because of the weather but because Me n Betterhalfski had our really nice skiis$$$ walked off with after we skied Valentines day in great snowy conditions...then skiing friday the 17th in gorgeous Bluebird weather with great conditions at Canaan ski area my greatest ski buddy of all times caught n edge trying to chase after me dropping thru the Meadows and snapped her Tibula at the knee and our late started season ended early and her Alpine skiing is probably over at a relatively early age of 56...
we were skiing on our older Rock skiis and her bindings were probably defective...kicking ourselves in the Butt for trying to have fun over being responsible...
Ortho in Elkins said she needed major Surgery and would need to hang in WV for 3 months so we waited 5 days for swelling to die down and for her to finally cruch it and we just got back to Fl where we will have surgery and Rehab....WOW..its been a rough one
...but....Weather is looking up!!....what they do with some of the colder snowy stuff is the Question..
What misfortune! Please wish the "better half" well and a healthy recovery from the Crazie family. Work hard on rehab and the future will be better. Keep us posted and thank you for you weather updates.
Hey I got some inside info that seven springs is going to contine to blast snow at every oppertunity and will try to stay open to the end of March.
They made a little bit on Sunday. Blasting again on Thursday / Friday.
Might get one more blast of cold Friday night-Saturday up high. I know Appalachian will take advantage and blow all she can with a USSA Skier/Boarder X event still scheduled for the 11th.
Snowstorm possible on Sunday 3/12 for PA / WV. Maybe up to 10". We will have to wait and see.
SUNDAY sunday SUNDAYYYYYY!!!!
I'll be at Beech to cash in on some leftovers.. won't be ther for first chair but will enjoy some cut up goodies for what is very likely my last ski day of the season..
fishnski wrote:
Enjoy ur grand finale CDart!...here it comes..ole man Winter is going to wreck havoc on empty closed ski areas into late march... GFS is showing large areas of 18 to 20 inch totals for the next 7 days and it is showing more cold n snow way past that.... been in the low 80's all winter here in Fl and now that my brother and wife are coming to visit from CO it will cool down to the low 70's..even a high 60's could be in store....... Great weather!!!????....could be..for the few that blew!$$$
fishnski wrote:How is the Mrs leg healing? I think about her often. My ribs are slowly healing, but still a month or so to go...I hope!
MorganB
aka The Colonel
Enjoy ur grand finale CDart!...here it comes..ole man Winter is going to wreck havoc on empty closed ski areas into late march... GFS is showing large areas of 18 to 20 inch totals for the next 7 days and it is showing more cold n snow way past that.... been in the low 80's all winter here in Fl and now that my brother and wife are coming to visit from CO it will cool down to the low 70's..even a high 60's could be in store....... Great weather!!!????....could be..for the few that blew!$$$
Totals up above 5K will probably be higher than this. I intend to go find out Sunday morning.. Beech Mountain or Bust!
ALAs, models are trending the wrong direction for my "powder day". I'll head up and ski anyway. Should still be cold and not too crowded. Not going to get up super early.. just going to take it easy and ski a few hours mid morning/early afternoon.
Snowing all the way down to the Beach at my summer home in South eastern NC...and into SC....(extremely rare in mid winter let alone march 12th!)
Blizzard watch mid Atlantic and on up the Northeast coast...
Well....Whod a thunk it especially with all the winter is history, doom n gloom earlier.on...Roundtop still open?...Huh?...Cheers to the survivers!!....
Since we long ago thread drifted this away from weather and into climate, here's some more of the latter. Not that these elite govt scientists can be trusted. Soon we'll get this data scrubbed up fine and begin cooling down.
This is from a surf website. West coast surfers love El Ninos, and it usually means great snow for the Sierra and PNW as well, though it sure didn't seem to last year. http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/latest-enso-update-raises-chance-for-an-el-nio-return-this-year-sitting-in-neutral-is-el-nino-about-to-rev-bac_146131/
February was the second hottest Feb on record and the fourth hottest of any month (as a departure from normal) on record -- and this was a weak La Niña event, when we would expect cooling temps. Sure was a record-hot month over the eastern US too. Image: NOAA
This plot shows temperature anomalies (change from expected temp) over time (year at bottom). Very easy to visually see how temperature anomalies on land and at sea have increased since the early 1980's. Image: NOAA
This was an almost record El nino event Camp so your wrong there..at least for the 1st half...that was a huge amount of warm moist tropical pacific air that was pounding Cali...also...The Govt loves to estimate data in favor of their agenda where they have none....Ill say it again...there has been a little Warming but its not even close to what is hyped and we must remember that alot of Data comes from Big Cities.......beginning data points are also a good way to fudge up some fuzzy math...
Here is another way to look at camps map he posted...this one shows where there is no actual data to gather...
fishnski wrote:
That little (With respect to 1981-2010 base perioid) and LAND ONLY.. is really double dipping on the cherry picking there fish. Even with all that, ignoring the cooler years of 1900-1980, etc it's still showing cause for concern, just not nearly as much as the full data picture does..
depending on your agenda you could cherry pick this chart to your advantage...yeh....its been warming since the late 90's!..
New England having their 7th coldest march on record..big dump coming for april fools...anybody there?...
tons of snow in the rockies...Northern Hemisphere is looking just fine...we should have been ice free by now....New york should be flooded by now...empty ur wallets...lets fix this mess!!!!$$$$
You and other members of the Flat Earth Society Ski Club weren't in New England during balmy late February/early March when it was 70 degress and raining. Worst conditions I have ever skied in in New England. The conditions were better at the local hills. I know you'll be excited to know that Owl Gore has a new movie coming out. You might want to get some advanced tickets. I know you Flat Earther'ers are excited. I think it was Emperor Obama who commanded him to make the film....after finishing his directives to all of the weather researches around the world. He got them all straightened out and that brilliant Rick Perry is next in his sights.
Oh sh$t
Yehhhh...wasnt fun mid winter...guess that has never happened b4..(ur funny funny face..)...ck out the ski areas this morn....ck out the stake on Mt mansfield. (no..its not a April fools joke )..or dont and just kick back in little kid anticipation for your idol owl bore to take more money from you Suckers...with all due respect...
Sooo...Im a flat earther...cool....Gangster!....lets see...The holier than thou'ers Leader Obama spent about 150 BILLION during his 8 years..of OUR money ..on climate that even his EPA administrator Gina McCarthy admitted during a House hearing that the money spent didnt even move the temp needle over 1/100th a degree but it was worth it because it set an example to the world...friggin example could have fixed a whole lot of stuff here in the homeland...maybe its not ur homeland..but its mine not the worlds!....not to mention the market forces would have shut down coal without Obama because of the conversion to cheaper and much cleaner Nat gas...
Germany spent a mint on Wind and renewables ext... for their power grid and 330,000 folks got their power cut off this year because of the crazy elec bills..not to mention the power loss during cold snaps because the system just couldnt take the pressure..Awesome!....Wind Turbines cost more to maintain than they are worth almost...count how many are not turning on a ridgeline....Broke!
Man made GW is the biggest Scam ever known to man...90% is most likely a natural event...the other 5 to 10% has allready been addressed with all the enviromental policies we have put in place and has peaked.....sit back and be happy we are warming a little...could be worse...we could be heading into another iceage which would be much more devastating!....meanwhile the alarmist with their loyal sheep keep on making money.....not so much with Trump thank goodness...
Hey, pretty good flat earther rambling diatribe. Actually I hope you flat earther's are correct. You want to see some real wind turbines cranking out electricity, go out to the mid-west. There are thousands of them. The wind is free, you don't have to mine it, drill for it or process it. It is producing part of your electricity. I guess you still use incandescent light bulbs despite the fact that they use 85% more electricity than an LED bulb and LED bulbs last 10x longer. Those LED bulbs are all part of that evil liberal plot. All that said, it was a lousy ski year with lousy weather that I doubt had much to do with climate change, I hope. Next year we will return to a better than normal winter, that is my hope and dream.
The truth is always in the middle mr. Smith.....most of us know that but we feel compelled to go extreme to get our points across....
Oh..ps....changed out all my bulbs at 3 houses last year....painful...but its done...the hoarder in me was miserable!
I like it. You are a very funny man. You must be a hoot to party with.
I really don't understand what all this fuss is about global worming. What's wrong with worms and where eles are they going to live but in the earth so why all this fear of global worming? The worms have always been there eating and pooping dirt so we can grow food. I think we should all be in favor of global worming.
Just wait until the global worms are too big to fish with
Snowshoe on 4/6 + 4/7
good news for the very few uphill skiers who earn their turns and extend their ski season by at least 1/3 :)
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
Snowshoe on 4/6 + 4/7
Well mr fish, (aka dcski weatherman) the local news has us at 2" max. The fearless canaan weatherman sent this out this morning:
2,500 to 3,000 ft. 1 to 3 inches
3,000 to 3,500 ft.: 2 to 4 inches
3,500 to 4,000 ft.: 3 to 6 inches
> 4,000 feet: 4 to 8 inches
fishnski wrote:
Models have been putting the Jackspot further south on the Allegheny front but ive seen that b4 and with a system like this any of the highest ridges could get the most...I posted a few days ago that I thought 8 inches or so was predict...You will have to be up high to see that IMO.... But like Hillary said...."What does it matter at this point?!!?"
Thats AKA Fake dcski wxdude to u sir....
well..the real Met says 4 to 8 above 4000'....kinda gels with my 8 inch predict (Way up high & focust around the tippy point of MPC) that I posted at the beginning of this week....im still betting ur paycheck on 6 inches at mid ski mtn..(3800')...Even though the latest GFS comes in a little less robust I like to make and stick with a predict..and I dont like the spreads everyone else gives....copout!
PS....just started Snowing up at Beech Mtn,Nc...39 at the Shoe.....the thing is more snow will fall than stick on the warm ground...
I figured that the early changeover was premature but whats falling has changed back to snow at the shoe and this time its on.(33 degrees)..still about 2 to 4 hours b4 data said it would....its all about the storm now and how it evolves.
5.7 inches so far at 3715' so Chaga's paycheck looks safe allthough you probably cant tell with most of it blown into the woods with 25 to 35mph winds..(saw 1 gust to 50)....wind chills down to 0 or less...hey..its april in the Alpps!....
Got my special agent "Secret Squirrel" cking out my 8 inch predict for higher up at MPC....all good and on schedule!
5" in East Tahoe, just enough to make some pre-Happy Hour runs on Friday.
Today was closing day at Mt Sunapee NH. Sad that people flip a switch into Spring activities, because the mountain was at least 50% open with deep coverage....
https://flic.kr/p/T88V8E
Nice pics. Thanks. Sunapee was a favorite of my college days, some 5 decades ago. Nearby Mt. Cardigan is a great backcountry destination with some of the original CCC trails, the Alexandria and Dukes trails. It's probably too late now for skiable snow.
Actually we've got snowshoable amounts in my neighborhood and town. My back yard has at least two feet left. And one of the pictures has the views of Cardigan in the foreground with Moosilauke and Mt Washington in the background. Stll Winter up here.
Surf's UP along the southeast and mid atlantic coast thanks to Emily.. Tomorrow afterniin and Wednesday morning should be pretty good for those who go for it.
everybody enjoying the state of the climate in the DC area?....good part of the country is as well...continuing into August as shown in this model Fcast....
but this worries me.....will this pattern be here when we need snow and cold?.....im worried but If I had to bet im thinking this is going to be a sweet winter.....any bets out there?...
Upper 40's on my way to work at 6 AM on August 9th
Hoping for clear skies mid afternoon on the 21st for the solar eclipse.
Should be some clouds and come clear tomorrow when the moon upstages the sun. Not looking that good farther south in the totality ribbon. What's better, totality in the rain or 95% and partly cloudy??
definately 95% and sunny (still hopeful). I made a viewer from a 20" cardboard square and an old 70-200 FD FD camera lens. Seems to work well in testing. Makes a spot on the ground about 10+cm square.
We're in the 94% zone. Yes, I know that is nothing compared to totality. I' remember the one in 78 and being in the 80-90% zone. Got a little darker, like a storm was coming but not like sunset dark, We've got 4 "official" pairs of viewer glasses fro the local university planetarium a friend gave us yesterday. I had already procurred 4 pairs of cheap arsed arc welding goggles good for short, 20-30 second glances but not drk enough to star at it non stop.
Think I'll wear a Floyd Dark Side of the Moon shirt tomorrow..
This qualifies as "weather data" right??
